I don't think they were found near the water. Apparently there was no shade on the part of the trail they were found in.Do we know there was no shade where they were? If they were near the algae bloom, they were near water. And if they were near water, from what I read, the river is lined by trees.
I’m so confused.
SAR typically doesn't want people in an SAR area looking for "clues", contaminating the trail, etc. This is normal for SAR operations, and this case was particularly well-publicized.
I don't think they were found near the water. Apparently there was no shade on the part of the trail they were found in.
I think we can't assume they went that way. They could have gone on the switchbacks and turned right back.
Personally, I don’t think it was heat stroke but it would have been—eventually—if they didn’t die some other way (disclaimer: I was a paramedic but didn’t see much heat stroke, so I’m not an expert on HS). I won’t belabor points already made. But - they should not have gone out on that hike in Miju’s vulnerable condition or the dog’s double-coated furriness. It breaks my heart.
Yes, that’s the weirdest thing to me about this case. Heat stroke was my very first thought. It sort of seems like a no brainer, but right off the bat LE was saying how “baffled” they were, that it was so “mysterious,” and they’re closing trails for “unknown hazards.” They’re talking about toxic algae, poison mine gases, rattlesnake bites etc. but not the heat! 109 is HOT. Way too hot for a dog and a baby. I don’t know if LE is seeing things that make them truly confused or if they just very dramatic.Not 28 miles of it. Per the news report linked above, the sheriff said that he’s never come across a case like this where there is nothing to explain how they died.
Heat should be the immediate assumption of indeed they were found having hiked UP a brutal trail in 100 degree temps, with no shade. Yet they act like it’s a mystery. Strange.
I would also add that there was an air quality warning due to smoke from the fires. That can also impact how one tolerates heat and exertion, both for people and dogs.
In some ways I feel like this family could become canaries in the coal mine as far as climate change-related heatstroke is concerned. It's troubling to me that no one was out on that trail on Sunday, Monday or Tuesday except this family, LE and SAR. Locals stayed away due to the extremeness of the hike and weather. Examples can be found in that blogger and in AllTrails reviews of people turning back or not bothering with the hike at all, plus further cautions about steepness and bringing enough water. I also noticed that no reviews of that hike have been left on AllTrails in the months of July or August, and only one review left in the month of June. That tells us something as well. JMO.
Something important about this trail is that it’s downhill into the canyon for a long time. So hiking back to the car would be steep uphill. So if they only got to where they were found, they had only gone downhill the whole time. I personally think they probably did do the whole loop and we’re hiking back UP to the trailhead when they succumbed just 1.5 miles from the car. JMO. I just don’t think they’d be in that much trouble just 1.5 miles into the trail only going downhill. Even in the heat. But doing the loop and then going back UP in the heat of the day is where I see them getting into trouble.Thanks. So if it was a steep trail, 1.6 miles or so would maybe take them about 45 minutes or so. They should’ve felt the heat quickly. They should’ve noticed their dog was struggling, trying to stop or pull for the shade of any bush.
It’s possible the dog kept valiantly trying to keep up and collapsed. And then they spent time trying to assist the dog. But I can tell you that there are obvious signs before that. Heavy panting. Trying to stop. Etc.
In any event, it’s possible. And it’s possible they then tried to carry the dog back down but couldn’t due to the weight and heat. At that point it’s possible the baby could’ve start to show signs of distress. Maybe they tried to find brush to put the dog or baby under.
It just seems off to me. IMO, if it was heat related I would expect the strongest of them to quickly to send for help and for the remaining parent along with the baby and dog to be wedged under any piece of brush there was that could provide even a little bit of shade. I hike very similar areas and there are always small bushes at the least under which you could shove a baby or a dog and at least part of your own body. I would also expect them to have their shirts off and over their heads if they did not have hats and/or off and used to shield the dog or baby’s bodies from sun.
I hike in heat in So Cal. But 85-90 degrees can cause heat exhaustion super fast. Rarely are any hikers with even a bit of experience out on a trail going UP for any length of time in heat over 85 or so.
So I am at work and just talked with one of our ED Physicians about this case. He said that both heat stroke and lightning, including ground lightning, are not his first choices. He did say that once a person gets to the level of head stroke, death is imminent if the person doesn’t get out of the hot environment right away (and get medical care). In heat stroke there would be altered mental status, of course, so decisions that are being made would be poor/illogical. Breathing would become shallow and the person would lose consciousness. Sweating stops as well. Prior to heat stroke, there would be heat exhaustion. During heat exhaustion, there would likely be “unquenchable thirst” and people are usually not able to curb the thirst and conserve water. So its curious that they had a bit of water remaining in their camelbak. He felt they wouldn't have been found in the exact same area if it was heat related. Would have expected them to wander off and seek shade, even if there was none visible. He did say that lightning may not leave obvious physical signs. Said both are possible, but he believes that they ingested something poisonous…
Agree. It is remarkable to me that someone from LE or SAR was also treated for heat-related illness. I appreciate you canary/coal mine analogy. The fact is that similar hyperthermic situations with hikers seem to be rare up to this point. The future will likely tell a different story.
Something important about this trail is that it’s downhill into the canyon for a long time. So hiking back to the car would be steep uphill. So if they only got to where they were found, they had only gone downhill the whole time. I personally think they probably did do the whole loop and we’re hiking back UP to the trailhead when they succumbed just 1.5 miles from the car. JMO. I just don’t think they’d be in that much trouble just 1.5 miles into the trail only going downhill. Even in the heat. But doing the loop and then going back UP in the heat of the day is where I see them getting into trouble.
Something important about this trail is that it’s downhill into the canyon for a long time. So hiking back to the car would be steep uphill. So if they only got to where they were found, they had only gone downhill the whole time. I personally think they probably did do the whole loop and we’re hiking back UP to the trailhead when they succumbed just 1.5 miles from the car. JMO. I just don’t think they’d be in that much trouble just 1.5 miles into the trail only going downhill. Even in the heat. But doing the loop and then going back UP in the heat of the day is where I see them getting into trouble.
If the dog was carried because of illness, wouldn't you take the leash off? Even if you sit down, he's still most likely not well and doesn't need it. Or JG puts it on because he thinks the dog could get better while J catches his breath and run away. Sorry just a little detail I think about.LE believe they may have hiked along the river prior to reaching the switchbacks where they were found. One theory is that their dog may have become ill from swimming or drinking from the river. That may have slowed their hike down, especially if JG carried the ill dog. (*speculation)
With the help of the Mariposa sheriff, we were able to create a more accurate map of the suspected hike the family took. And sadly where they were found.”
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https://twitter.com/mgafni/status/1428907517019516928?s=20
@gitana1 here's a few background bits:
1. There was a forest fire in the area a few years ago so no more shade except perhaps low shrubs that have regrown. Unknown if the fire burned along the river so there may still be shade there.
2. From where they parked, the trail was downhill on the way out and uphill on the way back (regardless of whether loop or down/back. Savage/Lundy is steeper than Hites Cove, at least in sections.)
3. Re the probable loop: The loop would be going down the Hite Cove trail, then along the river trail, then back up the Savage-Lundy trail, where they were found in the midst of the switchbacks about 1.5 miles short of their vehicle.
4. So if they hiked the loop then they were down near the river for a stretch. Algae mats known in the vicinity.
5. They were seen driving toward the trailhead at 7:45am. So presumably they started out around 8am-8:15 although they could have been delayed in various scenarios that we wouldn't know of.
6. There were three recorded lightning strikes on the east side of the Sierra about 25 miles east of them, that afternoon (I think afternoon MOO). No reports of it being an actual thunderstormy day that I've seen. Dry lightning and/or ground lightning have been discussed and not ruled out.
lots more I'm sure but that's all I can think of for now.
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