CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #4

[RickshawFan]

Without more info from LE re: foot / paw print findings in the area the family was found, us amateur sleuthers may continue to spin around the question: Will LE's initial suspicion the family did most of the full loop (HC to SL trails) before they died, hold up as their investigation advances?

So I continue to ponder not only why the family may have been on SL trail, but also, in what direction and how far they got? In fact, I have a new idea to share that could explain where each of the group was found, perhaps flipping at least one of our assumptions on its head. The following is just IMO.

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From the TBI clinical information posted here, especially as it relates to possible heat sensitivity and neurologic impacts, I now wonder if EC succumbed first. Maybe the plan was for the family to trek down the SL trail to the river for a swim and picnic as some have previously postulated. Or as revisited recently, forced to flee to 'safety'.

Soon after they started (~15 minutes), the dog started to exhibit symptoms of heat crisis, including paws over heating, panting and stalling, per veterinary information shared with us here. JG who was carrying the baby, gives the baby to EC and from there he carries the dog. Their goal is still to get to the river, now with more urgency.

But EC collapses on the way down the SL trail possibly from carrying the baby which exacerbated her likely vulnerability to heat (wit her TBI history).

Perhaps then JG also notices then that the baby is showing signs of heat stroke (another very vulnerable family member and based on earlier ideas here that JG and EC could have mistakenly thought their baby was sleeping.) JG stays with EC and the baby trying to help them. But sadly, EC passes away from heatstroke in 30min.

Then JG, in his sudden state of grief and shock and possibly his own state of heat exhaustion, thinks the best thing to do is get the dog and baby down to the river quickly. JG carries the dog and baby for 30m until he collapses, puts the baby down in her carrier and secures the dog, and then he dies of heat stroke. The baby and dog follow.

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So the proposed flip of assumption in this scenario is that perhaps EC was found where she was because she died first. And the other three were where they were because JG was carrying the baby and dog trying desperately to get them to the river water to cool off. But he didn’t make it there.

And of course, while this theory rests squarely on heat stroke as the cause of death for all four, there could certainly have been extenuating circumstances as well... All IMO!

I think EC could have died first, but they were on the way DOWN. She was used to not leashing the dog. The dog got loose in the upper reaches of the trail. She looks for it everywhere. Dad and baby wait in the trail, just plonked there, faced uphill waiting for momma to come down. In the meantime, the doggy shows up beside Dad. He leashes the dog. Now all three wait for mom. But she's had an accident just out of sight. (Is the 30 meters a trail distance or "as the crow flies" distance?). And now she's taken so long that the other three expire.

 

[Seattle1]

Yes I suppose it would depend on the sitting posture as I mentioned earlier. The description of ‘sitting upright’ seems unusual but I don’t know where that information has come from.

Washington Post was first to report on the position of the bodies but don't know if they cite Mariposa County Sheriff as the source.

Gerrish was discovered in a seated position with Miju and Oski near him, while Chung was found a ways away from them up a hill, according to The Washington Post.

The bodies of the family members and their dog did not have any physical wounds or signs of trauma, and there was no suicide note that would indicate it was intentional, Mariposa County Sheriff's spokeswoman Kristie Mitchell previously told Fox News.

An initial autopsy yielded little information about how the family died, leaving authorities and loved ones to wait for the results of a pending toxicology report for more clues. A necropsy is also being conducted on the dog. Both reports could take up to several weeks.

 

[SophieRose]

The Mirror, not the best, but dog attached was also reported in another MSM.

Final calls on Brit dad's phone may hold key to how family died on hiking trip

Mr Briese said the baby was in a backpack carrier with the dog near her father but attached to him, while her mum was 30 yards away.

 

[RickshawFan]

If the dog was "attached", it wouldn't have to be with a leash. It could be something makeshift. IIRC EC wasn't used to hiking with her dog leashed. This is why I'm surmising the dog was loose, but showed up with dad and baby. Dad improvises a leash.

 

[Seattle1]

Must be time for recycled posts. It follows that the family's dog could have been on a leash.

Domestic pets are allowed in the Sierra National Forest and wilderness areas. ... Pets should either be leashed on a leash no longer than eight feet or under direct voice command and control. When camping in areas or campgrounds with other forest visitors, pets must be kept on a leash or tether.

Sierra National Forest - Home.

 

[rahod1]

I find it much easier to accept that they had ‘no choice’ in taking that route than I have of accepting they planned to do it. In all probability they died from heat stroke but I will never believe it was an error of judgement on their part. I can’t! MOO

Does that apply to their initial decision to hike down a steep trail (HC is still steep) with baby and dog given initial conditions (Temp 85 and climbing)?

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

I am stuck on his position when found. Seems that a dying person would fall over to the side, or backwards, once they lose consciousness.

True. This sort of trail (a traverse of a steep slope) is called a "cut and fill". You move dirt from the uphill side and deposit it on the downhill side. That leaves an embankment on the uphill side. Possibly he had his back to that, or the "seated position" just means his legs were out in front of him, and they don't mean he was still sitting upright, just that he appeared to have been sitting when he died. EC, in contrast, might have been face down, having fallen while walking. Wish we had more information. MOO, best guess.

 

[Figuring]

I wonder if Jon & Ellens' friends & families have been given any answers by LE yet. It must be so unbelievably painful if they still don't know what happened.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Must be time for recycled posts. It follows that the family's dog could have been on a leash.

Domestic pets are allowed in the Sierra National Forest and wilderness areas. ... Pets should either be leashed on a leash no longer than eight feet or under direct voice command and control. When camping in areas or campgrounds with other forest visitors, pets must be kept on a leash or tether.

Sierra National Forest - Home.

Yes, you can be fined if your dog is off-leash. In my county, you are required to keep your dog leashed at all times. We also have speed limits on the freeway. Both are largely ignored, no harm, no foul. If there is harm, then you're in trouble.

 

[Parsnip]

About the dog and leash:

As @Seattle1 implied, this topic received considerable discussion. We have a single (less than scrupulous?) news source stating that the dog was attached to JG. Discussion included…was it a waist strap? Was the dog already dead? Did the dog never hear of Lassie? EC has photos of the dog off leash on SM, etc. As I recall, discussion ultimately faded not because it is not an important possible clue, but because it was never substantiated. If I am wrong, I welcome the correction. My own theory is that the cascade of events started with the dog.

 

[Yvettea]

The Savage-Lundy Trail is actually the less steep of the two trails gaining 2000 feet over 2.8 miles. By contrast the Hites Cove Trail descends 1900 feet over 2.1 miles. The portion of the hike along the Merced River is 1.8 miles with an elevation gain of 100 feet.

The temperature in Mariposa California was 66°F at 8 AM Sunday, August 15. By 10 AM the temperature had risen to 80°. They could have been finishing their hike by noon when the temperature was 92°.

Savage\Lundy Trail
Historical temperatures obtained from Wunderground.com

 

[Parsnip]

The Savage-Lundy Trail is actually the less steep of the two trails gaining 2000 feet over 2.8 miles. By contrast the Hites Cove Trail descends 1900 feet over 2.1 miles. The portion of the hike along the Merced River is 1.8 miles with an elevation gain of 100 feet.

The temperature in Mariposa California was 66°F at 8 AM Sunday, August 15. By 10 AM the temperature had risen to 80°. They could have been finishing their hike by noon when the temperature was 92°.

Savage\Lundy Trail

But the work load for an uphill hike on switchbacks in direct sun could have contributed to heat related issues. We also don’t know how long they may have lingered on the river portion, if at all. If they lingered, they may have headed up the switchbacks at much higher temperatures later in the day. We have also heard on these threads that temperature stations record results in the shade, as I recall. There are many variables, for sure.

 

[Yvettea]

But the work load for an uphill hike on switchbacks in direct sun could have contributed to heat related issues. We also don’t know how long they may have lingered on the river portion, if at all. If they lingered, they may have headed up the switchbacks at much higher temperatures later in the day. We have also heard on these threads that temperature stations record results in the shade, as I recall. There are many variables, for sure.

I agree except for one thing, switchbacks themselves do not contribute to the workload. That hike in full sun would have been very difficult.

ETA: I’m not exactly sure how to evaluate greater distance with less elevation gain per mile. Both the Savage-Lundy trail and the Hites Cove trail would have received full sun in the afternoon with one trail longer but less steep and one trail shorter but more steep. Maybe this has all been hashed out in the discussion by now. Since the couple apparently collapsed after one mile uphill it is a moot point IMO.

Without the delay it seems the hike would have been safe enough for the couple. For their daughter and their dog wiser minds than mine will have to prevail because I surely don’t know.

 

[cherrymeg]

@Pumphouse do you know if Jon's phone was iPhone or Android?

According to Google, even the FBI can't get into a locked iphone and Apple says they can't ( or won't) help. Android phones are easier to get into, I read, but not if they have security apps to encrypt them. I haven't followed this debate. Maybe another WSer can weigh in.

The FBI has asked Apple to help unlock the Florida gunman’s iPhones

I found this page about iphones being unlocked after someone dies. It has some suggestions. It’s kind of crazy that people can’t get into a phone after your death.
Can’t Unlock a Deceased Loved One’s iPhone? 6 Things to Try | Cake Blog

 

[rahod1]

The Savage-Lundy Trail is actually the less steep of the two trails gaining 2000 feet over 2.8 miles. By contrast the Hites Cove Trail descends 1900 feet over 2.1 miles. The portion of the hike along the Merced River is 1.8 miles with an elevation gain of 100 feet.

The temperature in Mariposa California was 66°F at 8 AM Sunday, August 15. By 10 AM the temperature had risen to 80°. They could have been finishing their hike by noon when the temperature was 92°.

Savage\Lundy Trail
Historical temperatures obtained from Wunderground.com

It has been established that the temp in the SHADE in Portola (which is the closest to the trail) was 85F at 8AM that day and 92F by 9AM...IN THE SHADE.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

It has been established that the temp in the SHADE in Portola (which is the closest to the trail) was 85F at 8AM that day and 92F by 9AM...IN THE SHADE.

Not trying to be pedantic but I think you are referring to El Portal?

There are multiple places in California with "Portola" in the name but none of them are anywhere near this case. Just trying to keep details straight. MOO

 

[rahod1]

Not trying to be pedantic but I think you are referring to El Portal?

There are multiple places in California with "Portola" in the name but none of them are anywhere near this case. Just trying to keep details straight. MOO

Thanks....Yes El Portal. Must have been my SF past lurking there !

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Thanks....Yes El Portal. Must have been my SF past lurking there !

Glad for the clarity -- I could only imagine the confusion if some non-Californian searched for "Portola" or "Portola Valley" weather records to compare!

 

[Deleted member 222031]

I think EC could have died first, but they were on the way DOWN. She was used to not leashing the dog. The dog got loose in the upper reaches of the trail. She looks for it everywhere. Dad and baby wait in the trail, just plonked there, faced uphill waiting for momma to come down. In the meantime, the doggy shows up beside Dad. He leashes the dog. Now all three wait for mom. But she's had an accident just out of sight. (Is the 30 meters a trail distance or "as the crow flies" distance?). And now she's taken so long that the other three expire.

I'm still not clear on body placement. Ellen was nearest their car or farthest away?
TIA

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

The Savage-Lundy Trail is actually the less steep of the two trails gaining 2000 feet over 2.8 miles. By contrast the Hites Cove Trail descends 1900 feet over 2.1 miles. The portion of the hike along the Merced River is 1.8 miles with an elevation gain of 100 feet.

The temperature in Mariposa California was 66°F at 8 AM Sunday, August 15. By 10 AM the temperature had risen to 80°. They could have been finishing their hike by noon when the temperature was 92°.

Savage\Lundy Trail
Historical temperatures obtained from Wunderground.com

You are correct that the map shows The Hites Cove Trail descending 1900' in 2.1 miles, to the point where they left it, but that junction is above the river, and about 150' above the elevation of Savage Lundy Trail where it meets the river. So it needs some tweaking to be a good comparison. The HCT is downstream from the SLT, so it is actually a longer descent to the river, not shorter.