CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #6

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Google says that "point to point mapping" means measuring distances between points on a route. Which would indicate Jon knew the distance of the loop. I do not know if that's what Sheriff Briese meant.

It measures distances between points as the crow flies, so it could be very accurate if the route was a straight line, and very inaccurate if the route had a lot of turns, like... switchbacks.

 

[NSamuelle]

It measures distances between points as the crow flies, so it could be very accurate if the route was a straight line, and very inaccurate if the route had a lot of turns, like... switchbacks.

Agreed, but the switchbacks are a common feature in hiking and Jonathan would’ve seen and known about them on the map (they’re such a distinctive feature, like jagged teeth) so he would’ve understood how to do accurate calculations. As a software engineer, I’m sure he had a good understanding of math and basic physics (e.g., altitude changes = distance; not all distance can be measured on the x axis).

 

[sfinkz]

That’s a guess I made about the one pack. It’s actually not very common to have 3 liter Camelbaks in women’s packs because the bladder is too long. For comparison, my new pack (a women’s model) can theoretically fit a 3 liter bladder, but this hasn’t been a common thing, and I’m not sure it wouldn’t be tower over the loop you hang it on. So, yeah, theoretical. If I get a photo of EC’s pack, I can tell you.

If it was a 2.5 liter bladder in the GC pack, my experience would be an Osprey (not a Camelbak or non-Osprey Hydrapak). Osprey bladders tend to have a lot of plastic and are unusually bulky and very long. I don’t know for sure with this couple, though. I’m saying this because the pieces are assembling in my head into a picture from experience, not because I have information that others don’t.

So far, logic doesn’t seem to be working well. It’s possible they didn’t even fill the bladder to 2.5 liters. We only know the capacity, not how much they took.

Also, IME you wouldn’t drink much if you have a Camelbak attached to someone else’s pack. It’s awkward. The whole point of carrying a bladder is so you can be drinking more regularly than having to stop and fish out a water bottle.

Again, I’m making a guess about whether she was carrying a pack.

OK, gearwise, I once fixated on filtration equipment, which would allow them to meet their water needs by filling the 85 oz bladder at entry and exit points of the South Fork and reducing pack weight up to 25%. During a slow September, the Sheriff let slip that no filtration (for parasites, not The Very Fast Death Factor) was with the family and it was a sinking feeling as I could not picture them carrying 8L of water.

Now, however, I’m confused about the backpack(s). I was led to believe there was a single super-duper child carrier/85 oz hydration pack combo. Don’t think so. No such beast exists, does it? Must be, IMO, a separate carrier (a luxe model as depicted on the private IG, the last known contact on original timeline) and 85 oz (standard large, from 2.5 L) hydration pack. The Sheriff said ‘Camelbak’ but he may have been using an eponym. At any rate, Camelbak does not make carriers afaik.

What I’m trying to say is, if they did indeed have both a carrier and separate ‘Camelbak’ it would have been a perfect setup (if only they also had filtration).

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Agreed, but the switchbacks are a common feature in hiking and Jonathan would’ve seen and known about them on the map (they’re such a distinctive feature, like jagged teeth) so he would’ve understood how to do accurate calculations. As a software engineer, I’m sure he had a good understanding of math and basic physics (e.g., altitude changes = distance; not all distance can be measured on the x axis).

Yes, he most likely made the waypoints for navigation- if you are hiking down a trail, a waypoint might be an intersection where your next turn is, or some other place of importance like a water source. Your GPS or phone with GPS will show you or alert you when you reach the waypoint. If you get lost, it will show you the direction of a waypoint. The waypoints would probably be shown on a map, so you would see where you were on the map, and where the waypoints were. Hopefully the trails too. But from what the sheriff said, he didn't get distance or elevation info from them, he would have had to calculate those separately. I do that all the time. Here's one I made for the Savage Lundy trail, to see the approximate location of the bodies, distances, slope and elevation gain.

 

[ItalyReader]

Yes, he most likely made the waypoints for navigation- if you are hiking down a trail, a waypoint might be an intersection where your next turn is, or some other place of importance like a water source. Your GPS or phone with GPS will show you or alert you when you reach the waypoint. If you get lost, it will show you the direction of a waypoint. The waypoints would probably be shown on a map, so you would see where you were on the map, and where the waypoints were. Hopefully the trails too. But from what the sheriff said, he didn't get distance or elevation info from them, he would have had to calculate those separately. I do that all the time. Here's one I made for the Savage Lundy trail, to see the approximate location of the bodies, distances, slope and elevation gain.

Did the sheriff specify what tool Jon used to map the waypoints? (Google?)

 

[Yvettea]

@Lex Parsimoniae, SLT looks like a consistently steady climb with no relief.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

RSBM
Thank you, @everybodhi.

This information needs to be broadcast through a loudspeaker through every channel we have available, worldwide. With global warming upon us, we humans, and many species of animals, are so much more vulnerable to heat related crises, ranging from heat stroke deaths to dwindling water supplies to diminishing availability of food and shelter. This sounds dark and foreboding, but I fear we are at a tipping point as a species and our fate is quite vulnerable.

If there is any good from this case, it is that it may shake us all to our cores... at least anyone who is aware of this or other heat related deaths.

The best way I can think of to channel my anger, sadness and helplessness I feel for this family and their deaths, is to share this new reality with others.

Amen!

 

[RickshawFan]

I think this is key when trying to figure out WHY they went. 70’s is very comfortable, especially in dry heat. I think it’s so easy to not think ahead to the last part of the hike when starting out. We SHOULD do that, but they aren’t the first to not think ahead and won’t be the last. I’ve done it and got myself into quite a pickle once in New Mexico desert. It was the only time I was actually scared, but thankfully I made it. I started out way too late for how hot the last hour or so would be at the end where there was no shade—no trees. It happens a lot, but most of the time we scrape by and learn from it. Sometimes, tragically, we don’t scrape by.

The thing is, the temperature rose dramatically in the first hour, and there had been a heat wave all week. And they were heading down into the heat. They could've turned around. This is what I don't get: why they stayed out there.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

Yes, he most likely made the waypoints for navigation- if you are hiking down a trail, a waypoint might be an intersection where your next turn is, or some other place of importance like a water source. Your GPS or phone with GPS will show you or alert you when you reach the waypoint. If you get lost, it will show you the direction of a waypoint. The waypoints would probably be shown on a map, so you would see where you were on the map, and where the waypoints were. Hopefully the trails too. But from what the sheriff said, he didn't get distance or elevation info from them, he would have had to calculate those separately. I do that all the time. Here's one I made for the Savage Lundy trail, to see the approximate location of the bodies, distances, slope and elevation gain.

Say you were fit, the temperature was a steady 74°F, hydrated and had everything required for the hike, how long do you think it may take to hike that loop?

 

[Yvettea]

The thing is, the temperature rose dramatically in the first hour, and there had been a heat wave all week. And they were heading down into the heat. They could've turned around. This is what I don't get: why they stayed out there.

Weren’t that concerned about survival? Some people are amazing risk takers. In fact many do not see the risk at all, just the opportunity. They tend to be very confident in their own ability to handle situations.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

@Lex Parsimoniae, SLT looks like a consistently steady climb with no relief.

The mile closest to the truck and especially the half mile closest to the river are not as steep, but the switchbacks were engineered to keep a pretty steady grade. I'm sure it's a good workout in normal hiking temperatures.

 

[RickshawFan]

They were showing the video footage of SLT to convey how steep it was by tilting the camera view angle to the max. I couldn't stop laughing at that.

Snipped for focus

LE likely used a drone during the SAR operation. I doubt they created special footage for the presser. The drone showed images from a variety of different angles.
What they showed, indeed is what the trail looks like. Those slopes would correspond to the paper maps that might have been used in planning the trip.
I doubt LE photo-shopped or otherwise manipulated the drone footage. IMO that would serve no purpose.
It made me horrified to see that footage (there were so many ways to confirm it would look like that in advance of hiking it). As I watch, I am on the other side of the universe from a laugh that I couldn't stop.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Say you were fit, the temperature was a steady 74°F, hydrated and had everything required for the hike, how long do you think it may take to hike that loop?

I guess something like 4 hrs, plus any stops like for lunch or a rest. It does depend on the trail condition, if it's rough or they were having to push thru brush or downed trees, it would be slower.

 

[Karuna]

Snipped for focus

LE likely used a drone during the SAR operation. I doubt they created special footage for the presser. The drone showed images from a variety of different angles.
What they showed, indeed is what the trail looks like. Those slopes would correspond to the paper maps that might have been used in planning the trip.
I doubt LE photo-shopped or otherwise manipulated the drone footage. IMO that would serve no purpose.
It made me horrified to see that footage (there were so many ways to confirm it would look like that in advance of hiking it). As I watch, I am on the other side of the universe from a laugh that I couldn't stop.

Yes, I believe they said in the PC that the footage is was from the recovery day, not made separately for the announcement yesterday. I got chills looking at the google earth pictures of that slope from some of the links provided on WS in thread 5. In some ways I thought the panorama of google earth was even more intense than the LE footage. Definitely not laughing either - even at LE, I think they did an amazing job.

 

[Pumphouse363]

S

It is interesting and I wonder what they were doing as well, but I bet it was just a walk and not actually going down into the canyon? Maybe there are places to hike/walk around the area without going down onto the actual trails? I don’t know.

So maybe that’s what Jon and Ellen intended to do?

 

[Pumphouse363]

They told us yesterday the keys were found in the dirt, on the trail.

But not where on the trail.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Did the sheriff specify what tool Jon used to map the waypoints? (Google?)

No, no detail on that.

 

[Pumphouse363]

I guess something like 4 hrs, plus any stops like for lunch or a rest. It does depend on the trail condition, if it's rough or they were having to push thru brush or downed trees, it would be slower.

Someone I know hiked it a few days ago - six hours with a couple of breaks - no baby to carry or dog to monitor and much lower temperatures.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Snipped for focus

LE likely used a drone during the SAR operation. I doubt they created special footage for the presser. The drone showed images from a variety of different angles.
What they showed, indeed is what the trail looks like. Those slopes would correspond to the paper maps that might have been used in planning the trip.
I doubt LE photo-shopped or otherwise manipulated the drone footage. IMO that would serve no purpose.
It made me horrified to see that footage (there were so many ways to confirm it would look like that in advance of hiking it). As I watch, I am on the other side of the universe from a laugh that I couldn't stop.

That was a CHP helicopter, not a drone. The sheriff mentions the exact aircraft, I think it was H40.

 

[RedHaus]

Well, I had a whole multi-quote response post planned but alas, as our thread switched pages, I lost my draft quotes, so I'll let that intent go.

Instead, I'll share some lessons learned from this poor family, as I try to let go of the "WHY" question. My thinking here is akin to training programs (e.g. emergency responses) in which you run scenarios to prepare your mind to make good decisions when under high stress - trained to think through options when in crisis.

Purposely, I am not addressing lessons learned about preparing for a hike. But rather, this is intended to prepare for and manage a crisis of a hike when it unfolds.

1. Be constantly vigilant with regards to the welfare, needs and best recourse to protect animal or human dependent(s), as they are the most vulnerable.

2. Speak up and don't be shy to say 'help!' when you or any member of your hiking or traveling party starts to feel at all 'off' (e.g. lightheaded, fatigued, winded.)

3. Stop and evaluate the situation at the first signs of a crisis, while you still have all your faculties, so you can clearly consider options and make decisions.

4. Always be prepared to turn around or change course to seek shelter, rescue, water, etc. at a moment's notice, which will likely mean giving up on your 'goals'.

5. Even if one of your party is uncomfortable with respect to secondary needs (e.g. food), you must always prioritize the most critical needs (e.g. shelter from elements).

6. It is important to be able to let go of social norms if necessary to survive, even if that means sitting in a river overnight until you are rescued during extreme heat.

7. If possible, send the most able of your party on / back alone in order to seek help and rescue, especially when others in the party are more compromised.

8. If one or more of your hiking party becomes gravely incapacitated and others face the same risk, leave the gravely ill behind in order to get help to save all.

9. If a member of your hiking party dies while hiking, and others face the same risk, try not to let the profound grief or guilt get in the way of saving your self or others.

10. Assign the most experienced and fit member of the hiking party to be the captain of an outing so there is a single arbiter to make decisions when in a crisis.

Of course all this is easier said than done. Some of these lessons even appear unconscionable to me sitting comfortably at my desk. But I'd like to think in an unfolding crisis like JG/EC faced that Sunday, their experiences and failings have helped prepare me and hopefully others to avoid the same mistakes in order to save lives.