Thanks Otto, I always appreciate your maps. It does almost looks like someone headed straight into the water on purpose. But we don't know exactly where the car went in. It could have drifted for a couple of minutes before sinking. The current looked strong in one of the videos of the scene.I think that, when she drove onto the beach, she was somewhere between 55 and 100 yards from the water. If the water was 5 feet higher, the water would be 25 feet closer. 8 yards, so between 47 and 92 yards of driving on the beach before sloping down near the water.
Where it says 20m on the illustration, you can see the change in water depth by the colour of the water. There's a slope or drop very near the shore, other parts of the shore are more gradual.
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Yup, your arrows are correct. Thanks for mapping that!Thank you! This is where I think he is standing taking the video. Road looks dusty, narrow and might have some sharp rocks?
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Then she would have to walk 100 yards back to her car if that was correct. She knows where her car is she knows the direction of the water then how did she drive the wrong way, the opposite direction?Thanks Otto, I always appreciate your maps. It does almost looks like someone headed straight into the water on purpose. But we don't know exactly where the car went in. It could have drifted for a couple of minutes before sinking. The current looked strong in one of the videos of the scene.
I can't remember the source, but didn't one of Kiely's friends say her car was parked about a hundred yards from the party?
I wonder if instead of going down that road she was parked on the beach already. Maybe she tried driving down the beach to get to the road and ended up in the water.
I need to visualize to understand.I keep going back to a comment made by KR’s boss at the coffee shop that KR had a “spitfire personality”. IMO that means somewhat impulsive and reckless, but I looked it up to be sure. Not being judgmental in the slightest, but could help explain her driving off course:
Definition of spitfire
: a quick-tempered or highly emotional person
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Definition of SPITFIRE
a quick-tempered or highly emotional person… See the full definitionwww.merriam-webster.com
PS: As a highly visual person, I really appreciate all the maps and pictures. Thanks to everyone—also appreciate the first hand accounts from those in the area.
Exactly. Which makes it seem like she intentionally drove down the beach, towards the waterline, for some reason that made sense to her. And that reason we can only speculate about. I believe it was probably something innocent and insignificant, whether stashing booze or going pee one more time or looking at the stars. But it just went horribly wrong in a few seconds.How could she turn right, instead of left, slowly drive towards the water, and not realize that she'd made a mistake while she was driving 50+ yards on the beach?
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The line is 100 meters/yards. It looks like she was parked fairly close, possibly on the beach, possibly on the road to the party.Then she would have to walk 100 yards back to her car if that was correct. She knows where her car is she knows the direction of the water then how did she drive the wrong way, the opposite direction?
I agree @MsBetsy -- on two different occasions, I viewed the reservoir water as choppy. I never saw the water still or calm.Thanks Otto, I always appreciate your maps. It does almost looks like someone headed straight into the water on purpose. But we don't know exactly where the car went in. It could have drifted for a couple of minutes before sinking. The current looked strong in one of the videos of the scene.
I can't remember the source, but didn't one of Kiely's friends say her car was parked about a hundred yards from the party?
I wonder if instead of going down that road she was parked on the beach already. Maybe she tried driving down the beach to get to the road and ended up in the water.
Perhaps cars were blocking the road and she thought she could take the other road? Or did she simply go the wrong way, drive 50+ yards across the beach and tip over into the water?Exactly. Which makes it seem like she intentionally drove down the beach, towards the waterline, for some reason that made sense to her. And that reason we can only speculate about. I believe it was probably something innocent and insignificant, whether stashing booze or going pee one more time or looking at the stars. But it just went horribly wrong in a few seconds.
Well, 100 yards is not very far to get to your car. It's very easy to be disoriented after a night of drinking, but I don't think she purposely drove towards the water. It's possible but probably not likely.Then she would have to walk 100 yards back to her car if that was correct. She knows where her car is she knows the direction of the water then how did she drive the wrong way, the opposite direction?
I think suicide is about the least likely, but not impossible. While I understand suicide is far from predictable in many cases, I think some proponents of the suicide or more common "she just drove drunk into the lake, use Occam's razor... duh!" theorists are overlooking that Kiely was rather unique. I'm not trying to make the deceased, pretty, young woman into an angel, although that's certainly not uncommon for people to do in general. She was 16, while her friends that went to party and most of those at party seem to have been 18 or older. She was home schooled, while most of those at party went to public high school together and/or already graduated. She graduated 2(?) years early and with honors. She played multiple musical instruments and was interested in medicine, science, cooking, etc. She had a good relationship with her family and people cared about her. I don't think this fits the suicide profile, nor the (previously considered before she was found) runaway profile. She was young, pretty, smart, talented, social and had everything to live for. She didn't seem to be the "drink and do shrooms every weekend" party type, although I could be totally wrong. She didn't even plan on going to that party until that day.
There were some pics of the area by a local in a previous thread here if that helpsThanks!
I’m going to zoom in on those regions now—but *very* easy to get turned around in those tree-ey areas and get off the path.
Curious how even the little fishtail spot has one fork that leads straight down to the water.
I understand the waterline would have been higher— I will do my best to add where that would have been too (though others did a good job before, just not sure I can find their work in all the threads!)
It's certainly possible. It just seems like a strange, uncertain way to do so: Drive your car into a reservoir and hope you drown? I'm assuming that's your hypothesis.Depression hits anyone though, and we're shown what people want us to see, to an extent. Sometimes friends and family members do not even know what a person feels, or how serious things are.
There really isn't a profile.
(No personal theory about Kiely, only that being unique is not protective.)
Dark? Unfamiliar with the roads in/out? Parking seems easier as it was straight up the hill from the party. Intoxication perhaps; there are reports that state she was intoxicated and in no shape to drive. People's preception and driving skills diminish with alcohol intake (highlighting why impaired driving is illegal). 55 feet offshore - she wasn't driving slowly.Then she would have to walk 100 yards back to her car if that was correct. She knows where her car is she knows the direction of the water then how did she drive the wrong way, the opposite direction?
It's certainly possible. It just seems like a strange, uncertain way to do so: Drive your car into a reservoir and hope you drown? I'm assuming that's your hypothesis.
My left map is what Google Maps pulls up as the best route from the party back to the highway. But what's disturbing to me is that Google Maps still counts what you call "Route 1" as a viable route -- even if as you said, it's "across mud flats." If there were a mass exodus of cars driving very slowly along the default route at around 12:30, it is possible that Google Maps would have calculated the route along the beach / mud flats (basically into the water!) as another possible -- potentially faster -- route. Except that, from what I've heard on here from locals, that route doesn't actually exist. (Please correct me if I'm wrong about that!) Could it be that she was just trying to follow her GPS to this alternate route?Route 1 on your map is not possible. I know it looks like a road and Google marks it like one, but it’s across mud flats. Route 2 is the way in and back out.
I think suicide is about the least likely, but not impossible. While I understand suicide is far from predictable in many cases, I think some proponents of the suicide or more common "she just drove drunk into the lake, use Occam's razor... duh!" theorists are overlooking that Kiely was rather unique. I'm not trying to make the deceased, pretty, young woman into an angel, although that's certainly not uncommon for people to do in general. She was 16, while her friends that went to party and most of those at party seem to have been 18 or older. She was home schooled, while most of those at party went to public high school together and/or already graduated. She graduated 2(?) years early and with honors. She played multiple musical instruments and was interested in medicine, science, cooking, etc. She had a good relationship with her family and people cared about her. I don't think this fits the suicide profile, nor the (previously considered before she was found) runaway profile. She was young, pretty, smart, talented, social and had everything to live for. She didn't seem to be the "drink and do shrooms every weekend" party type, although I could be totally wrong. She didn't even plan on going to that party until that day.