While there's a substantial probability that she drove into the reservoir on her own, this case still nags at me for some reason (other than losing a bright, talented, beautiful young person). Also, there are a number of things that just make me go "hmmm, did that really happen?" Any one of them in isolation don't seem that far-fetched and certainly not impossible, but when you multiply probabilities the result quickly gets small (low probability). So here is my nagging "hmmm" list:
1. KR was originally planning on going with her mother to Hot August Nights (concert/car show) in Reno and not to attend the party that night. That doesn't seem strange, because she had attended a local charter school and not the public high school which most of the party attendees did. Also, nobody that I'm aware of has described KR as a party girl, while we know KR was smart (graduated early and with honors) and talented with other interests (played multiple musical instruments). The odd part to me has always been why did she change her mind at the last minute and decide to go to the party? It could just be fateful coincidence, but I just have to wonder if someone wanted her at that party for some reason (as a ride? was there a boy, present, surprise, or event that she was told would be there and would be tempting to her?).
2. KR decided to stay at the party. Again, nobody described her as a "party girl." That doesn't mean she couldn't or didn't enjoy parties, but the only two firsthand accounts of the party that I'm aware are as follows: One of her best friends rode with her to party and then decided to leave after 10 minutes due to how crazy the party was (including people trying to force her to take bong rips). Another friend said she was normally underwhelmed at these parties, but was overwhelmed by this one. Both friends seemed to agree that there were a lot more people at the party than normal, there were significantly older people at the party (which it was implied was unusual), and there were harder drugs at the party (that they normally didn't have around at these parties). Allegedly, the things that overwhelmed her older, presumably more party-seasoned friends (since they were older and attended public high school, they had likely attended more of these parties, but I could be wrong) and struck them as unusual and dangerous... did not phase KR.
3. Allegedly, KR voluntarily decided to get very intoxicated. This may not seem so strange on the surface, as many teens (even relatively straight-laced ones) might cut loose at a senior farewell party. It's only strange to me in light of the other information we have: She was a smart, high-achieving wasn't even planning on going to the party until the last minute... the party was supposedly unusually large, with a lot of out-of-town/older strangers with harder drugs available that allegedly weren't normally at these parties... her best friend left 10 minutes later due to how hectic this party was... she had an 11 PM curfew that was allegedly extended by her texting her mother to do so... and she planned to meet friends the next morning, relating to going camping that day. Important to remember that we're not talking about having a drink or two over the course of a couple hours or so. The statements of her friend included going back to KR's car to do shots, sharing drinks, drinking from the same cup, etc. Would that in and of itself be shocking? No, but it still seems a bit odd to me, given the other information we have.
4. KR allegedly texted her mother to extend her curfew, telling her she would leave at ~12:15 AM (so she should have arrived home by 1 AM). This is one of the least strange links in the chain, but still another link, and perhaps important in light of later information.
5. According to a friend, KR had allegedly agreed to give the friend a ride home, possibly even extending her curfew to do so (we don't know exactly why she allegedly extended her curfew, but the friend said that the friend wanted to stay longer at this "overwhelming" and "scary" party... I don't recall any mention of KR wanting to stay longer, although she may have meant this by implication). This was stated as occurring ~11 PM, when KR allegedly texted her mother, and happening while in the car or on the way back to the party from KR charging her phone in her car. However, the friend stated that she then immediately sought out another ride home. She also stated that sometime between that time and the time she left, she realized KR was too intoxicated for her to feel comfortable riding home with her. She didn't report seeing KR from this time until the end of the party, but this could simply be oversight/omission. This raises some questions: If one just lined up a ride home with a friend, why would one almost immediately seek out another ride home? If the friend was with KR from 11 PM until ~12:25 AM, why would she let her become more intoxicated, when she was planning to ride home with her? If the friend wasn't with KR from 11 PM until ~12:25 AM, how would she know KR had suddenly become too intoxicated to drive and decide to find another ride? In less than 1.5 hours, KR had to get significantly more intoxicated, her friend had to assess KR's ability to drive and decide not to ride home with her, and her friend had to find another ride home before saying her goobyes to KR.
6. KR apparently became significantly more intoxicated between 11 PM (the time KR and her friend left her car after charging her phone and texting her mother) and 12:25 AM (the time KR allegedly hugged her friend and they said their goodbyes). That's less than 1.5 hours, and it would probably be less, as it wouldn't make sense for KR's friend to ask KR for a ride and then immediately seek another ride due to KR's alleged intoxication, and KR was due to leave ~12:15 AM.
7. KR allegedly stayed later than the time (12:15 AM) she allegedly told her mother that she would be leaving to return home. It wouldn't be so strange to leave a few minutes later than she planned, but according to her friend's statement: At ~12:25 AM (when friend allegedly hugged KR and said goodbye) and ~12:36 AM (when KR allegedly called her) KR wasn't driving, KR wasn't being driven home, and there was no report of KR having lined up a ride home. I'm not trying to judge KR's friend, simply get the "facts" straight, but KR's friend also never stated any attempt on her part to find KR a ride home, give KR a ride home (if friend was driving, which friend alleges she wasn't), or any concern for how KR would get home.
8. I don't recall any information about where KR parked in relation to the party or reservoir (only "100 yards away" from a source I don't recollect, so can't deem reliable). If KR indeed attempted to drive home and ended up driving into the reservoir, then: It appears KR took a couple of wrong turns... KR could not see the water until it was too late to stop short or shortly into (below door level) the water... once in the water, KR could not escape the vehicle... nobody heard or saw her enter the water (or if they did, they did not report it to authorities)... and by the time LE responded to the scene the next day, there was no evidence of her vehicle's path to the water, nor of her vehicle in the water. Again, any of these things in and of themselves (or even taken as whole) is very possible, but again we now have many more links in the probability chain.
To summarize, these are at least some of the links in the probability chain:
An unusually smart and high-achieving high school senior that attended a charter school, unlike almost every other person at that party, was planning to go an event with her mother, but on that day changed her mind and decide to attend the party instead. She drove her best friend to the party, which was "overwhelming" and "scary" due to its sheer size, the presence of many older and out-of-town persons, and the potency of unusual drugs seen at the party. Despite her best friend leaving after 10 minutes, KR decided to stay at the party and was mostly hanging out with the other friend.
KR and the friend went back to her car multiple times to charge her phone and do shots. KR and the friend were sharing drinks and often drinking from the same source. About 11 PM, during or shortly after one of the trips back to KR's car to charge KR's phone and text her mother to extend her curfew, the friend asked KR for a ride home later and KR agreed. The friend then almost immediately began to seek out another ride, which seems strange to me. The reason for needing another ride was that KR was allegedly heavily intoxicated, but she must not have been heavily intoxicated at 11 PM or the friend wouldn't have asked her for a ride then. So at 11 PM, KR was not heavily intoxicated, was planning to drive both herself and her friend home ~12:15 AM, and had ~1 hour & 15 minutes until she was due to leave the party. She also had plans the next morning and day. Despite this, within that ~1 hour & 15 minute window, KR decided to get substantially more intoxicated, to the point that her friend no longer wanted a ride home with her.
At ~12:25 AM, KR and her friend allegedly hugged and said their goodbyes. KR's friend did not mention offering KR a ride or finding KR a ride, despite her knowing that KR was too intoxicated to drive the friend home. At ~12:36 AM KR allegedly called the friend while the friend was "in the passenger seat" of a vehicle, being driven home. The friend stated that at this time KR was not driving home, nor was she being driven home. She also reported the voices/sounds of party in the background. The reason for the call was allegedly that KR asked the friend if she had a ride home. This despite KR hugging and saying goodbye to the friend 10 minutes earlier. The reason for this could be attributed to KR's intoxication, but despite this intoxication, no indication of a ride lined up, and KR already being ~20 minutes past the time she last planned to leave the party for home, the friend did not show any concern for how KR would get home. The friend did not report asking KR whether she had a ride home or was driving home. KR at some point later then allegedly decided to drive home, must have taken wrong turn(s), did not see the water ahead of her and drove into the reservoir, and could not escape the vehicle. Nobody saw or heard anything. If they did, they decided not to contact authorities. There was no evidence of KR driving into the water or of her vehicle in the water. If there was, it wasn't there by the time LE responded to the scene the next day.
I don't know, perhaps I'm looking for something that isn't there, but this just doesn't sit right with me for some reason. I hope we will soon have enough information from the authorities to know definitively whether this was a simple vehicular accident or there is more to the story.
