maybe statistically, until you add in some of the circumstances. How often do runaways throw their cell phones and change of clothes into a field a mile from home?
I don't think she ran away. I'm sure she would have had more than one set of clothes with her but if i did consider that, there are things that could support it.
She supposedly takes a photo of herself that morning, did she send that to mom, so many conflicting reports. So mom sees what she's wearing to school. When the bag was found, it's suspected that the shirt from the morning is in the bag.
She makes plans to see her friend at school before school starts but never shows up.
Her phone is found close to her home.
It all points to abduction not a runaway.
On the other hand;
Shoes aren't tossed or in bag or found anywhere. Would someone who made her strip her clothes care about her feet and want her to have them on since they had some rough walking to do? Would he keep them as a trophy when they were also publicized?
Could she have ditched bag knowing whoever found it would think she was kidnapped?
Best friend says it wasn't her phone. Could she have tossed phone knowing she had another?
Parents and sister have what i consider odd behavior like they believe she ran away not abducted. Even the sister has appeared calm. (IMO) Could there have been an argument Thursday night that made Sierra want to finally leave there?
I don't know anything but if she didn't intend to go to school, she definitely made it seem like she was.