CANADA Canada - Audrey Gleave, 73, Ancaster ON, 30 Dec 2010 #10

[Claroon]

My studies are a hypothetical sample and may not apply to this case, but they are worth noting:

Specifically noting LE's reference of a 'sexual component' in the AG case of which we do not know:
In the U.S., sexual homicides by older male offenders (55+) account for only 0.5% of all sexual homicides.

Most offenders in sexualized or overkill homicides are usually (but not always):
• Male
• Under 55
• Often 25–45
This is because:
• physical strength is required
• sexualized motives skew younger
• impulsive violence decreases with age
• offenders over 65 are statistically rare in violent homicide

Many resources:: Age and sexual recidivism) Statistics about sexual assault | INSPQ

(there is much more on this age theory and the sexualization is only one aspect of this case, so I find it helpful to post in snippets so each aspect can be evaluated on its own. I feel this will be a long journey as I don't want to look up all the old posts sleuths shared LOL. So details may have already been discussed.)

So . . . if the offender was around 55 on December 30, 2010, today in 2026, they would be around 71. Could still be alive.
If the offender was 25–45 in 2010, today in 2026 they would be 41–61 now.

 

[Claroon]

Read in a Reddit post that followup LE assigned to the case did not think there was a sexual component although EMS suggested there was. That it was staged to look like it. This is a conundrum.

Though my stats point to a male, we can't be narrow focused. Some women are very strong too.

 

[Claroon]

Weather data for Dec 28–29, 2010 comes from Environment Canada’s Historical Climate Data (Hamilton Airport station), which is the closest official weather station to Lynden, Ontario. I wanted to know if she was perhaps having her driveway plowed by someone that day:

Cold (–5°C to –10°C range)
• Snow already on the ground
• No major new snowfall
• No storm system
• No heavy accumulation
• Not a snow‑plow day
• Roads would have been drivable

so rule out snow plow driver, unless he was coming to collect pay.

 

[Claroon]

Thinking through scenarios for 73/74 yr old woman living in a property alone with a long driveway in winter. Did anyone check into when trash pick up was assuming she had pickup at the end of the driveway and didn't haul it herself. She may have had a neighbour, or hired help to drive the bins to the end of the long driveway in winter. Could explain why she was in the garage in her sneakers, not boots like she was going out. i.e. maybe she was expecting her garbage helper.

 

[Parsnip]

I tend to think AG was in her garage without her dogs because she was fully expecting someone to enter. That someone would be a person who expected AG to be away from the home at the time; whom AG did not feel threatened by; and whom AG wanted to catch in the act and confront. Moo.