CANADA Canada - Audrey Gleave, 73, Ancaster ON, 30 Dec 2010 #8

[dotr]

Wonder if geographic profiling has been used in Audrey or SV's case?

http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/tops-opst/bs-sc/geographic-g-profil-eng.htm

" A geographic profile provides the investigator with a geographic focus for the investigation. A series of maps identify the probable home and work locations of the offender. The maps also identify paths to use when searching for the offender. A geographic profile can also list multiple suspects in a priority order based on their residence or work locations.

Identifying a catchment area: A catchment area is the geographical area served by an institution, retail, or other facility. Using a mathematical process (a Thiessen polygon analysis), a geographical profiler can determine the catchment areas of a series of locations. For example, the process could identify the catchment areas of the grocery stores in a city. This service is useful for identifying the area of investigation in some cases.

Time, speed and distance calculations: These calculations can help an investigator who needs to know how far an offender can travel in a given period of time or how much time an offender would require to travel a given distance. A geographic profiler can determine time, speed, and distance calculations for walking, jogging, riding a bicycle or driving a vehicle."



https://www.e-education.psu.edu/files/geog885q/file/Lesson_04/krossmo.pdf

 

[Paragirl]

We need a link for that.

Sorry, I'm a little out of practice :blushing:

http://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/audrey-gleave-murder-remains-mystery-one-year-later-1.747175

"The person who killed Audrey was a person who was known to her."

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/2123220-audrey-s-case-gets-colder/

Terri-Lynn Collings, a spokesperson for Hamilton Police, said officers will not comment on the case because the investigation is ongoing. She did say that “no one has been ruled out as a suspect.”

I can't find the link with the profiler who suggests to look for someone "young and close" but I know it has been linked and discussed before. I believe it was a video link. I'm getting errors now when I try to open some of my links...maybe they are too old

 

[No_Stone_Unturned]

Quoted from Paragirl:

I can't find the link with the profiler who suggests to look for someone "young and close" but I know it has been linked and discussed before. I believe it was a video link

It's OK because dotr found the link and the quote. Look back a bit and you'll see it. (However, I don't think it's applicable in Audrey's case. I'm terribly confused today.) :blushing:

 

[LambChop]

LE stating that they have not ruled out anyone as a suspect is NOT the same as reporting to MSM that they have a suspect or a POI. When they do that we can discuss who that person is. Until that time we will not discuss those friends of Audrey who are not considered suspects by LE. Those are the rules. When more information becomes available from LE things may open up a bit.

 

[Woodland]

The thing with all these profiles, they are all guessing. In the end it's all a guess. Unless there is evidence, these guesses do not mean a thing.

Completely agree colette - this isn't a Jodie Foster movie.

It's annoying to me that Safarik, not privy to any inside info, is weighing in and his every word is taken at face value. Angry young men aren't the only people that knew AG lived alone - nonsense imo for Safarik to even say that.

It's also annoying to me that Hrab could be quoted now - he got it wrong and was replaced.

There are almost 8 billion people in the world today (maybe 8 billion has already been reached). To think we can pare down killers to organized or disorganized blows my mind. I have neighbors on one side that are organized, the other side is not so organized. I had a sister who was very organized - my other two siblings are slobs by comparison. I'm more organized than my husband, but he isn't even remotely a slob. On and on it goes.

One thing you never see is a profile for a known killer - ie we said the guy was this or that and by golly that's what he was. Never.

Jmo.

 

[Chorley8]

"It's also annoying to me that Hrab could be quoted now - he got it wrong and was replaced." quoting Woodland

BUT his comment about the violence is so extreme the top few per cent (has he really seen a hundred homicides in Hamilton?) IF inaccurate it would be hard to know what to make of that kind of error. Malfaisance?, PTS hallucination/flashback? - a gross exaggeration?....worse?.

We don't know the total of what Hrab "got wrong" that is the whole point. We know he charged the wrong suspect we DON"T know that he was inaccurate with his appraisal of the crime scene.

It is not as though we have much else to go on just the word of the person who found her (and who for us significantly saw things differently).

But you might be right maybe we should throw out everything Hrab saw or said? I'm not sure myself.

If we drop the terrible crime scene idea and the trophy idea it is a totally different crime scene IMO

 

[Chorley8]

The thing with all these profiles, they are all guessing. In the end it's all a guess. Unless there is evidence, these guesses do not mean a thing.

Yes of course is they had more evidence they wouldn't be "guessing" (profiling).

Colette if you feel like it what do you make of the nature of the crime scene Audrey coat on in garage in tandem with her illness AND/OR secretive behaviour few days before she died (if it was that). Beaten and stabbed.

Why does she have her coat on?

Is she going out?

Coming in?

Sitting in the garage on the bench?

As far as we know she wouldn't go out at night without the dogs right?

Also.........

What does being beaten AND stabbed mean? Dotr you are great with this stuff do you know?

Also....

I have always found it significant that one person said Audrey invited them into her home on a in memoriam page. Fact? Lie? If a lie how come?

I just note that that person is o/w off the radar here so there must be others.

But why go to that trouble of pointing out that the (alleged) hermit invited you into their home?

Adding.....

The Adcock quote (Dotr post) he finished with the point that it is likely the killer will strike again - so it is almost as if he is giving preference to the "person with a problem with women" theory.

 

[No_Stone_Unturned]

Just tossing this in for no particular reason at all:

DISORGANISED OFFENDERS

Disorganized offender - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

ORGANISED OFFENDERS

http://psychologydictionary.org/organized-offender/

 

[Deleted member 102539]

I remember a few FMs who thought of a possible connection of Dellen Millard/cars/Audrey, therefore new brain food:

http://www.thestar.com/news/crime/2...osma_killing_charged_with_2_more_murders.html


Toronto’s Millard now charged in deaths of his father and Laura Babcock. Bosma co-accused Mark Smich is also charged in Babcock slaying.

 

[colette]

Yes of course is they had more evidence they wouldn't be "guessing" (profiling).

Colette if you feel like it what do you make of the nature of the crime scene Audrey coat on in garage in tandem with her illness AND/OR secretive behaviour few days before she died (if it was that). Beaten and stabbed.

Why does she have her coat on?

Is she going out?

Coming in?

Sitting in the garage on the bench?

As far as we know she wouldn't go out at night without the dogs right?

Also.........

What does being beaten AND stabbed mean? Dotr you are great with this stuff do you know?

Also....

I have always found it significant that one person said Audrey invited them into her home on a in memoriam page. Fact? Lie? If a lie how come?

I just note that that person is o/w off the radar here so there must be others.

But why go to that trouble of pointing out that the (alleged) hermit invited you into their home?

Adding.....

The Adcock quote (Dotr post) he finished with the point that it is likely the killer will strike again - so it is almost as if he is giving preference to the "person with a problem with women" theory.

My guess is this: She had her coat on because she was going somewhere in her car, or coming back from somewhere in her car. I tend to think it was returning because that would make the most sense. The killer sees her leave or possibly sees her out. Follows her home or waits at her home until she comes back. He then slips in her garage door as she is pulling in and attacks her when she gets out of the car. She probably did not see him sneak in as she was parking.

She would not have been out for a smoke or to sit on the bench because she did not have her dogs with her. Good time to spend moments with the dogs when you are outside. Since they were inside I tend to think she had left or been leaving the home.

I do not think she invited someone over as she had her coat on, plus she didn't have people over as a general rule. I do not think there was something special or secretive about her illness. I think she was tired of feeling sick and had to get out of the house. I think she was a very private person and therefore tended to be secretive by nature.

I do think the killer was someone who noticed her car and had anger that some elderly lady could drive such a nice muscle car and he was driving a wreck or had no car at all. I think the car drew the killer to notice her. He may have even thought she had money and things to steal but after the murder he looks in and see's a hoarders messy home with crazy barking dogs and does not enter.

All my guess. Stabbing and beating because he does not own a gun. Beating because he has anger at women, especially older ones who have more than he does. What is your guess?

 

[Woodland]

"It's also annoying to me that Hrab could be quoted now - he got it wrong and was replaced." quoting Woodland

BUT his comment about the violence is so extreme the top few per cent (has he really seen a hundred homicides in Hamilton?) IF inaccurate it would be hard to know what to make of that kind of error. Malfaisance?, PTS hallucination/flashback? - a gross exaggeration?....worse?.

We don't know the total of what Hrab "got wrong" that is the whole point. We know he charged the wrong suspect we DON"T know that he was inaccurate with his appraisal of the crime scene.

It is not as though we have much else to go on just the word of the person who found her (and who for us significantly saw things differently).

But you might be right maybe we should throw out everything Hrab saw or said? I'm not sure myself.

If we drop the terrible crime scene idea and the trophy idea it is a totally different crime scene IMO

Imo, the part Hrab got wrong is, a total stranger showing up exactly when the dogs were confined, thus allowing an uninterrupted murder - then finding AG's Will on her kitchen counter in her purse. The odds are a little astronomical imo.
All as opposed to the new investigator stating AG's killer was known to her - linked a few times.

By comparison - now that DM has been charged with killing TB - is DM young and distant as opposed to young and close? What are the alternatives or the in between traits? Have never heard any.

Sometimes I wonder if these so called profile traits are different for the public than they are for LE training - sincerely hope so.

Fwiw, I do very much believe in geographic profiling - the playing field seems more level.

 

[Woodland]

If AG was returning from somewhere and was followed, then attacked in her garage with her coat still on, how did her purse end up on her kitchen counter? Or is the purse location not an exact report?

 

[colette]

If AG was returning from somewhere and was followed, then attacked in her garage with her coat still on, how did her purse end up on her kitchen counter? Or is the purse location not an exact report?

Most the time I just take a wallet and leave the purse at home, wallet or drivers lic could have been in jacket pocket.

 

[Paragirl]

When I picture the events unfolding, I always automatically imagine the attack happening at night. I keep having to step back and remind myself that we don't really know when AG was murdered. Why did she have her coat on?

- she was on her way out somewhere
- she was coming back from being out somewhere
- she was outside having a smoke (apparently unlikely without the dogs being out)
- someone was stopping by for a quick visit and as seems to have been her custom, instead of inviting them in, she put on her coat and stepped out to sit on the bench with them, leaving the dogs locked inside

AG didn't always allow the dogs to roam free and hang about when she had company:

Gleave had two big and "mean" German Shepherds who she would lock up when Sharp and his wife, Margaret, would visit.
"I don't know how they (the attacker or attackers) would of got by her dogs, unless they shot them," Boyd said

http://www.brantfordexpositor.ca/2011/01/01/slain-ancaster-woman-never-a-bother

 

[Woodland]

It has always struck me as strange that AG was in her garage and her dogs were confined within the house. Not seeing why one would or needs to do that. If meeting someone in the garage who did not want to be around the dogs, why confine them in the house?

That has me envisioning someone was already in the house, and either ordered or convinced AG to put her coat on and go to the garage.

 

[Paragirl]

If AG was meeting with someone that the dogs were known to 'harass' or frighten, she may have been asked to keep them inside, or she may have simply decided herself to leave them inside. I love dogs and am generally not frightened of any dog unless they show obvious aggression toward me, but I have a friend with a very needy, poorly trained large breed. When I visit the dog is a huge pain in the a$$. It jumps on me, nips at me, licks incessantly, barks and whines, and paws at me (she does this with any visitor to the house). Despite ongoing admonishments and orders to stop, the dog will not settle. As a result, when I visit I ask my friend to keep the dog out of the room because we can't even carry on a conversation. I'm not saying AG's dogs behaved like that, just that maybe someone who really didn't feel like dealing with the dogs prowling around and eying them, asked her to keep them inside.

If she was meeting a visitor in the garage, where could she 'confine' the dogs other than inside the house?

Maybe someone was stopping by for a very brief visit, to pick up or drop off something, and it wasn't worth letting the dogs out because she was only going to be stepping out briefly. Or maybe because AG was feeling under the weather, she felt that she didn't have the energy to keep the dogs contained/under control in their excitement/frenzy/barking at having a visitor to the house, and decided to leave them inside. If it was someone known to AG she likely wouldn't think she needed the dogs to step out with her for protection.

It may simply have been too much hassle to have the dogs come out for what she assumed would be a brief moment in the garage.

 

[dotr]

If a perp is very young, could his actions be misinterpreted as being "disorganized" when in fact it is actions of the immature?
What if same young perp also has organized mentality, ie. neatly lines up toy soldier collection, cleans them meticulously ect, but when enraged throws, scatters and breaks toy solders..
Or could we have 2 perps of "The Odd Couple" variety?

Thoughts generated by this news..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/25/teens-arrested-torture-87_n_5214345.html

"Police in Hemet, Calif., have arrested two teens on suspicion of torturing and almost killing an 87-year-old woman as she slept in her bed at a retirement home.

The boys, ages 14 and 15, were placed in custody after they allegedly broke into a gated retirement community on April 18, committed several acts of vandalism, tried to burglarize the woman’s room and attacked her when she woke up. The pair is said to have severely beaten her and poured bleach on her arm. According to area news outlet KTLA, the woman was still in critical condition on April 24".

 

[Woodland]

Just for clarification, when I said 'confined within the house' in post #1097, was referring to inside a cage or in a bedroom etc with the door closed.

There is much discussion previously on the dogs being in a cage - here and MSM. An example -

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/2259959-if-audrey-gleave-s-dogs-could-speak-/

Also from PK, thread #2, page 24, post #582 - PK did not go into the house when he found AG so was not sure where the dogs were confined.

Many discussions indicate the dogs were unable to roam around in the house when found.

 

[2soccermom]

My own thoughts are that Audrey was murdered late at night or in the early hours. We know from the Wells' article(s) that she was a night owl -- often still up in the wee hours. I have said before that it would be useful to know if Audrey habitually crated the dogs at bed time. I do know there are dogs who find their crates comfortable and comforting at night rather than a restriction. If the dogs understood "bedtime" by being put in their crates (this could be a habit strategy to get them to settle down and to not waken Audrey too early in the am) that would be helpful (tho' not, of course, conclusive) to know. I believe Audrey was either still up or woke up and wanted a smoke; because of the December weather, she had her coat on. I don't think it likely she would uncrate the dogs to smoke if it was their "bedtime" -- particularly as she smoked in her own garage. Again it would be useful to know if Audrey typically wore pjs to bed or if she slept in regular-type clothes (like the stretchy pants) as some people do who don't sleep regular schedules. But that might not matter, anyway, because she might not yet have gone to bed.... Myself, I suspect the perp was waiting for her in the garage --Col. RW style (he had hid in J's basement waiting for her.) I'm not sure how he would have been able to enter.
RE: Millard:
I reported Dellen and his gang as potential persons of interests in Sonia Varaschin's case to LE -- both the unit overseeing SV's investigation and Hamilton LE because, in perusing Dellen's fb pages and those of his friends at the time of Tim Bosma's murder investigation, I came across a photo of a boot that looked identical to the one LE have been advertising as belonging to SV's killer. In fact, it is identical in terms of the boot style, and the main colour of the boot (tan and and yellow) media has featured -- although there are other colours of that make the killer might have worn. In any event, it's hard to know for certain, of course, if this is indeed the same make of boot because it's really the tread that is supposed to be unique to the brand -- and this pic didn't show the boot bottom. It was just a snap of a boot in the whole frame; you can just see a bit of a person's arm holding it. It's an odd object for a photo; what was particularly striking to me and the catalyst for calling it in were the hashtags on the photo: "fresh to kill" and "death by fashion." Both units -- SV's and Hamilton LE -- have that info.

I have always felt Audrey's and Sonia's cases could be connected, so IF there is a development in one, I hope resolution in the other will follow.

 

[2soccermom]

btw, I did save that pic and still have it, but I'm pretty sure I'm not allowed to post it here, since the DM friend from whose fb page I took it has not been named a suspect in Audrey's case. But it is indeed a very odd pic and, again, looks like a publicity page from LE because the boot is SO familiar to Sonia's case. The hashtags didn't save with the photo -- I think iirc, there were 3 tags, with the other being "#freeshit" (along with, again, #freshtokill" and "#deathbyfashion." It was very unnerving to kind of randomly encounter that photo.