Found Deceased Canada - Dan Archbald, 37, & Ryan Daley, 43, Ucluelet, Bc, 16 May 2018

[Coco Powder]

I was about to say the same thing. Unfortunately, in Surrey, it isn't rare to find two bodies.

 

[tarabull]

True enough....

Is two teens Two teens killed in Surrey shooting - NEWS 1130

WHERE are Dan & Ryan???

 

[wolvesjohnblack]

I figured if the shooting just happened it probably wasn't them.

 

[tarabull]

Perception is always interesting.

ETA: What would be Occam's razor ~ in this case ~ to ya'll?

Thoughts???...

 

[Satchie]

Wife fears foul play in mysterious case of men who vanished in Ucluelet

“My feelings at this time are that there's definitely foul play involved and that they are no longer with us, because if Dan could, he would be in our lives somehow. He loves his daughters and he would be here if he could be," Bliss told CTV News Monday. "I can't believe that there would be any way he wouldn't have made contact with someone if he hadn't been killed, or was being held somewhere against his will."

She said family has heard of no new leads save the discovery of articles of clothing and a pill bottle that could belong to Dan.

"We've searched the area where those things were found extensively," she said. "Police searched with dogs and our team of helpers searched it extensively and we found absolutely nothing."”

I'm curious why she believes this.

Is it just a tendency to paranoia (this area is notably unpopulated by homicidal maniacs who target pairs of men), or does she have some knowledge of activities that might have put them into the hands of such a person?

 

[wolvesjohnblack]

I'm thinking whatever happened to these guys happened soon after they arrived.I don't think they chose to disappear if so why come back in the first place?

 

[Sjm_qc]

Perception is always interesting.

ETA: What would be Occam's razor ~ in this case ~ to ya'll?

Thoughts???...

I’m a huge proponent of Occam’s razor, but have to admit I’m having trouble applying it in this particular instance.

I can come up with a number of simple reasonings/speculations for no foul play outcomes, but they only really work for one missing guy in these particular circumstances, not both of them together, taking into account that Dan has a young family.

If they were both single/no-ties guys, I’d be betting on them just being off on an adventure & out of contact. But I can’t make that fit with the facts we have.

On the other hand (foul play), it’s hard to imagine a scenario where two young, physically fit, likely fairly savvy guys, succumb to a random instance of foul play.

 

[Coco Powder]

I’m a huge proponent of Occam’s razor, but have to admit I’m having trouble applying it in this particular instance.

I can come up with a number of simple reasonings/speculations for no foul play outcomes, but they only really work for one missing guy in these particular circumstances, not both of them together, taking into account that Dan has a young family.

If they were both single/no-ties guys, I’d be betting on them just being off on an adventure & out of contact. But I can’t make that fit with the facts we have.

On the other hand (foul play), it’s hard to imagine a scenario where two young, physically fit, likely fairly savvy guys, succumb to a random instance of foul play.

 

[Stunned]

I'm curious why she believes this.

Is it just a tendency to paranoia (this area is notably unpopulated by homicidal maniacs who target pairs of men), or does she have some knowledge of activities that might have put them into the hands of such a person?

Something feels off about the trip and their departure from the boat.

 

[Coco Powder]

I agree that foul play seems unlikely with two strong, healthy guys (unless someone pulled a gun on them).

Earlier, someone asked how well Dan and Ryan knew one another; have they been friends for many years? Do they get along? Did they get along during the trip? Do they have much in common? One was trying to sell his life back in 2011, and the other is a devoted family man. Are they both happy in life? Does one suffer from depression?

So much we don't know.

 

[Sjm_qc]

I'm curious why she believes this.

Is it just a tendency to paranoia (this area is notably unpopulated by homicidal maniacs who target pairs of men), or does she have some knowledge of activities that might have put them into the hands of such a person?

I don’t think it’s paranoia, nor do I think it’s necessarily knowledge of illicit activities.

This is a family which wasn’t particularly concerned about a “few” days (up to 10 before one or the other family made a missing report) of no contact after 8 weeks away sailing, which suggested to me that they aren’t likely to panic/get paranoid easily/are used to Dan & Ryan being away on expeditions/out of contact for a while.

I also suspect that if she/they are coming to this conclusion, it’s because they’re eliminating all other possible hypotheses.

I have to admit I had a private theory of accident/misadventure which would have had one of them limping out of the forest for help, but we’re reaching the practical limit of that being a possibility.

 

[Snoopster]

Occam's Razor? Only one that I don't have to come up with a convoluted response to is foul play. Someone found out they had drugs (or simply presumed they had drugs) and decided to take it for themselves.

 

[neennerd]

If they wanted to go to the cabin in Jordan River that Daley owns (as family supposed they might be headed) it would be a circular and roundabout route to go to Victoria first. More direct to take the logging roads from Ucluelet to Jordan River (in which case they’d need to have a vehicle or hitchhike).

totally, but they had a lot of luggage, that would make hitchhiking a pain <modsnip>. I would rather take a bus to Vic than hitchhike with a giant duffel... are the logging roads even accessible though? Most are gated or dug out from the Malahat north, and lots past lake cow.

 

[Snoopster]

If they wanted to go to the cabin in Jordan River that Daley owns (as family supposed they might be headed) it would be a circular and roundabout route to go to Victoria first. More direct to take the logging roads from Ucluelet to Jordan River (in which case they’d need to have a vehicle or hitchhike).

According to a certain internet mapping service rolleyes, going the 'direct route' via Pt Alberni through logging roads to Lake Cowichan to Port Renfrew to Jordan River....is 5 hours and 27 min.
Going the 'roundabout' route (via Victoria) takes only 4 hours and 34 minutes, so about an hour less.

 

[drama_farmer]

I'm wondering if maybe they decided to spend a night at the nearby Ucluelet Campground, and then figure out travel plans from there? I'd imagine they've peppered the vicinity with "missing" posters at this point, but according to Google Maps (if the "small crafts" dock is where I think it is) it's about a 14 minute walk.

Google Map

 

[Sillybilly]

I would seriously consider the big cats in this case.

Cougar kills house cat in Ucluelet
“You should not have your cats outside anywhere, but certainly not in Ucluelet or Tofino.”


Cougar spotted in Ucluelet
Conservation Officer urges locals to report sightings

and from:
https://www.westerlynews.ca/news/cougar-spotted-at-b-c-hospital/

According to the Vancouver Island Wilderness and Historical Conservation, “Of the estimated 4000 cougars in Canada, 3500 live in BC. Of this, nearly a quarter reside on Vancouver Island (itself only representing 3% of BC’s land area), resulting in the highest concentration of cougars in the world.”

 

[Satchie]

I'm wondering if maybe they decided to spend a night at the nearby Ucluelet Campground, and then figure out travel plans from there? I'd imagine they've peppered the vicinity with "missing" posters at this point, but according to Google Maps (if the "small crafts" dock is where I think it is) it's about a 14 minute walk.

Google Map

Perhaps they camped somewhere, but I can't see them camping so close to their much more comfortable boat.

 

[drama_farmer]

Perhaps they camped somewhere, but I can't see them camping so close to their much more comfortable boat.

I considered that, but after spending all of that time and "togetherness" on a boat, sometimes you just want a change of scenery. Especially if you're already all packed up, and were expecting to be on the road already.

 

[always reading]

Something feels off about the trip and their departure from the boat.

I agree. I don't think we are being told the very info needed to help find them.

 

[Snoopster]

I would seriously consider the big cats in this case.

Cougar kills house cat in Ucluelet
“You should not have your cats outside anywhere, but certainly not in Ucluelet or Tofino.”


Cougar spotted in Ucluelet
Conservation Officer urges locals to report sightings

and from:
https://www.westerlynews.ca/news/cougar-spotted-at-b-c-hospital/

I agree that this is a risk, but there are two guys missing. I don't see a cougar attacking both and no sign of them remaining. JMO.