CANADA Canada - Jack, 4 & Lilly Sullivan, 6, Vulnerable, wandered from home 10am, Gairloch Rd, Landsdowne Station, Pictou County, NS, 2 May 2025 #2

[MistyWaters]

I do think we would have seen a different type of search and statement if they suspected abduction.

Moo

I’m not saying an abduction is suspected, just that it’s incorrect that it’s been ruled out. Police go the direction of where the evidence takes them, they don’t decide beforehand what to investigate. And we don’t know right now where the investigation is leading toward and they’re not talking as is the RCMP way. It’s okay that we don’t know.

 

[Lucy6226]

I’m not saying an abduction is suspected, just that it’s incorrect that it’s been ruled out. Police go the direction of where the evidence takes them, they don’t decide beforehand what to investigate. And we don’t know right now where the investigation is leading toward and they’re not talking.

Apologies, I should have said 'no evidence' rather than 'ruled out', as Sarahlou stated they have stated there is no evidence of abduction.

The fact remains no information has been released by the police regarding an abduction. If they truly thought it was an option surely they would be sending out amber alerts.

Please see my reply above regarding the 'ruled out' comment.

 

[iamafiusny]

Just because they see no evidence now doesn't mean that aren't also exploring the kidnap theory.

The kids were reported missing May 2nd. 6 days later RCMP said there was no evidence of an abduction.

I suppose it's possible they find evidence still, but it's likely by day 6 they would have found something. They're not just searching the woods. They're interviewing people, checking cell phones etc.

Jmo

Redirect Notice

 

[MistyWaters]

Please see my reply above regarding the 'ruled out' comment.

The step father has not been named a POI either so on the basis of odds that could suggest an abduction is just as likely as his involvement in the children’s disappearance in some way.

Update: Multi-agency search for missing children in Pictou County scales back | Royal Canadian Mounted Police

"I want to assure Nova Scotians that our missing persons investigation continues," says Staff Sergeant MacKinnon. "Our focus remains on finding Lily and Jack. Our best investigators are working every aspect of this file, and our work won't stop until we know where Lily and Jack are and can bring them home."

 

[iamafiusny]

The step father has not been named a POI either so on the basis of odds that could suggest an abduction is just as likely as his involvement in the children’s disappearance in some way.

Update: Multi-agency search for missing children in Pictou County scales back | Royal Canadian Mounted Police

"I want to assure Nova Scotians that our missing persons investigation continues," says Staff Sergeant MacKinnon. "Our focus remains on finding Lily and Jack. Our best investigators are working every aspect of this file, and our work won't stop until we know where Lily and Jack are and can bring them home."

I'm not sure I'm understanding what you're saying, because statistically a stepfather (or any family member) is more likely to become a POI than an abduction.

Maltreatment was most common in homes with a stepfather or boyfriend, with 80% of the maltreatment occurring between birth and age 4, 20% between ages 4-6, and 27% between ages 6-8.

Child Abuse and Father Figures: Which Kind of Families Are Safest to Grow Up In? - National Center for Health Research

Some studies show that children with a father surrogate living at home are more likely to be reported for maltreatment—abuse and neglect—than those with a biological father at home or, as some research shows, no father figure at all.

www.center4research.org

Abductions account for less than 1% of all reported missing children. ∎ The majority of children reported missing are 14 years of age or older (72%). ∎ According to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Survey, almost 1,000 children were victims of an attempted or completed abduction in Canada in 1996.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/85-002-x1998002-eng.pdf

Moo

 

[tara83]

So because it's more common we should just think Stepdad is guilty?

 

[MistyWaters]

The kids were reported missing May 2nd. 6 days later RCMP said there was no evidence of an abduction.

I suppose it's possible they find evidence still, but it's likely by day 6 they would have found something. They're not just searching the woods. They're interviewing people, checking cell phones etc.

Jmo

Redirect Notice

In any missing persons case conducting a very thorough search of the vicinity is always a priority hoping those who are lost can still be found alive, unless it’s known through witness or video that the missing person left the area. Especially in rugged wilderness, there’s always a risk of death by natural causes.

Imagine the uproar if the intensive search involving as many trained searchers as possible had not occurred?

 

[iamafiusny]

So because it's more common we should just think Stepdad is guilty?

That is not what I said.

Jmo

 

[iamafiusny]

In any missing persons case conducting a very thorough search of the vicinity is always a priority hoping those who are lost can still be found alive, unless it’s known through witness or video that the missing person left the area. Especially in rugged wilderness, there’s always a risk of death by natural causes.

Imagine the uproar if the intensive search involving as many trained searchers as possible had not occurred?

Yes, of course. And while they were searching the vicinty they were also interviewing the parents and collecting cellphones.

They likely also interviewed neighbors, family members, school staff, etc.

Which is why I think that RCMP stating on day 6 there is no evidence of an abduction we can believe them.

Jmo

 

[ginestra]

Lily with a backpack seems like getting ready for school. Yet Jack was in just boots. Odd.

 

[shetalksinstereo]

I am merely chiming in as a mom of 5. I just heard about this case. My younger kids always get up before me and entertain themselves, with the exception of the baby. My 6 and 9 year old play on their tablets, get snacks, etc. We have a 5 bedroom 2 story house. They know they are not allowed outside, and we have chains on the high part of the door. I get up with the baby around 730 or 8. School days are different, I have an alarm set.

My kids have wandered off outside while playing before, usually at the behest of a neighborhood kid, and did not respond while being called, and my husband and I have split up. One of us got in the car and one of us stayed close to home. Their older siblings also helped.

So, in terms of these behaviors, this is all normal to me.

What is not normal, in my opinion, is them not mentioning the kids were sick. If they were sick and had not been in school and clearly they were not going to school again (why?), this should have been mentioned because it was a disruption in the norm. That's just my 2 cents.

The fact that they still have not been found, to me, indicates foul play. By who, it's hard to say.

When I was little, I could not go out and play outside if I had been sick and didn't go to school. I wouldn't even have thought about it on my own, even at 6 years old. If only Jack had gone out, I could see that as he's too little to grasp that but also Lily is the one that was supposedly sick.

The other thing is the boot print. The kids live there, obviously there will be boot prints near the house. There's no way to "prove" that specific boot print is from that day.

I find it kind of unlikely that two kids would be randomly abducted that just happened to be outside and in such a rural area, jmo.

 

[iamshadow21]

When I was little, I could not go out and play outside if I had been sick and didn't go to school. I wouldn't even have thought about it on my own, even at 6 years old. If only Jack had gone out, I could see that as he's too little to grasp that but also Lily is the one that was supposedly sick.

The other thing is the boot print. The kids live there, obviously there will be boot prints near the house. There's no way to "prove" that specific boot print is from that day.

I find it kind of unlikely that two kids would be randomly abducted that just happened to be outside and in such a rural area, jmo.

This is exactly what I've been thinking about the boot print. Did they know it was left that morning? Could the weather have meant it was actually days older?

MOO

 

[iamafiusny]

When I was little, I could not go out and play outside if I had been sick and didn't go to school. I wouldn't even have thought about it on my own, even at 6 years old. If only Jack had gone out, I could see that as he's too little to grasp that but also Lily is the one that was supposedly sick.

The other thing is the boot print. The kids live there, obviously there will be boot prints near the house. There's no way to "prove" that specific boot print is from that day.

I find it kind of unlikely that two kids would be randomly abducted that just happened to be outside and in such a rural area, jmo.

Also can't prove it was Jack or Lily that left that imprint, even if it matches their boots.

Moo

 

[MistyWaters]

I'm not sure I'm understanding what you're saying, because statistically a stepfather (or any family member) is more likely to become a POI than an abduction.

Maltreatment was most common in homes with a stepfather or boyfriend, with 80% of the maltreatment occurring between birth and age 4, 20% between ages 4-6, and 27% between ages 6-8.

Child Abuse and Father Figures: Which Kind of Families Are Safest to Grow Up In? - National Center for Health Research

Some studies show that children with a father surrogate living at home are more likely to be reported for maltreatment—abuse and neglect—than those with a biological father at home or, as some research shows, no father figure at all.

www.center4research.org

Abductions account for less than 1% of all reported missing children. ∎ The majority of children reported missing are 14 years of age or older (72%). ∎ According to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Survey, almost 1,000 children were victims of an attempted or completed abduction in Canada in 1996.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/85-002-x1998002-eng.pdf

Moo

Seems to me you’re describing ‘tunnel vision’ that occurs when police decide what must’ve happened and then only investigate that one avenue. Cases are not solved through statistics.

I’m bowing out of this debate. When we have more updates from police we might know more, recognizing this case is obviously very complicated. Meanwhile I sincerely hope their investigation is leading somewhere, anywhere toward an eventual conclusion for the sake of the families.

 

[dotr]

Assuming they have indoor plumbing, but just in case they do not, is there an outhouse on the property, and/or an accessible cesspool? speculation.

 

[Andromeda]

"The RCMP say they’re scaling back their search for two missing children. CTV News public safety analyst Chris Lewis on what that means."

CTV:…They said they’re going to be circling back on areas that have been looked at before. So what does that tell you? This move signal at this stage of the investigation.

CL:…They’ve obviously made the decision that they don’t believe the kids have got further than their their perimeter the area they’ve already searched. So they want to go back and re-search it. And, uh, he also specifically said there’s areas they want to revisit. ..

CTV: is it possible one of the areas they are going to go back and re-search is the children’s home and the property surrounding?

CL: It could well be. It could be specific areas in that turf that maybe there’s water, uh, culverts and things like that. I don’t know, I’m only guessing here. Uh, but they’re pretty careful how they worded it all. And, which makes me think, once again from an investigative perspective, they know something we don’t.”

My maternal side is in N.S., actually not that far from Shubenacadie, so not far from Landsdowne Station. So, I have an understanding of rural living “around there”. In addition to re-searching the home, what about the well? It’s not uncommon for many rural residents to have to order water during the summer months. That entails lifting the cap of the well and, like filling a pool, the water truck delivers what they order. The well would be located in immediate proximity to the home.

jmo/moo

 

[iamafiusny]

Seems to me you’re describing ‘tunnel vision’ that occurs when police decide what must’ve happened and then only investigate that one avenue. Cases are not solved through statistics.

I’m bowing out of this debate. When we have more updates from police we might know more, recognizing this case is obviously very complicated. Meanwhile I sincerely hope their investigation is leading somewhere, anywhere toward an eventual conclusion for the sake of the families.

It's not tunnel vision when I've repeatedly stated they have also started interviewing people, collecting cell phones, etc.

I posted the statistics because you said the odds of stepdad being POI were same as abduction.

I think we're all here because we care. I really hope Jack and Lily are found and their loved ones get some form of closure.

Jmo

 

[Chimera]

Just in this missing children's case, I think the likelihood of a person driving by when the kids went out into the yard to play is pretty rare.
Also still wanting to know if this family & extended family who lived on the property had any cameras that would've recorded vehicular activity ?
Were the people who lived in the camper (grandma of Jack & Lily and the uncle ?) home when they disappeared ?
Did they have a ring doorbell cam that showed the little ones outside, playing ?

Still many questions that have not been answered.
It should be ok to post statistics and speculation as many of us who've followed missing children's cases have heard similar patterns of those other cases.
I wish Jack and Lily could be found safe ... but the odd circumstances and behavior & reactions of LE are concerning.
Imo.
Omo.

 

[iamafiusny]

"The RCMP say they’re scaling back their search for two missing children. CTV News public safety analyst Chris Lewis on what that means."

CTV:…They said they’re going to be circling back on areas that have been looked at before. So what does that tell you? This move signal at this stage of the investigation.

CL:…They’ve obviously made the decision that they don’t believe the kids have got further than their their perimeter the area they’ve already searched. So they want to go back and re-search it. And, uh, he also specifically said there’s areas they want to revisit. ..

CTV: is it possible one of the areas they are going to go back and re-search is the children’s home and the property surrounding?

CL: It could well be. It could be specific areas in that turf that maybe there’s water, uh, culverts and things like that. I don’t know, I’m only guessing here. Uh, but they’re pretty careful how they worded it all. And, which makes me think, once again from an investigative perspective, they know something we don’t.”

My maternal side is in N.S., actually not that far from Shubenacadie, so not far from Landsdowne Station. So, I have an understanding of rural living “around there”. In addition to re-searching the home, what about the well? It’s not uncommon for many rural residents to have to order water during the summer months. That entails lifting the cap of the well and, like filling a pool, the water truck delivers what they order. The well would be located in immediate proximity to the home.

jmo/moo

Someone posted yesterday that the police scanner said they've searched the property twice. I assume they would have checked the well during that time.

Moo

 

[tlcya]

Even though we are being given very little information from RCMP, I do not believe they have tunnel vision. It sounds as if several possible avenues are being explored. Three that we know of.

Woods - while the large scale searching has been scaled back it isn't as if searching is done. Only small groups now and more specific areas that may have been difficult to navigate when the search was larger.

Abduction - while they are not visibly investigating this option, I dont believe they would not do so if any evidence at all seemed to lead that direction. So, not discounted, just not anything that has leads pointing that way right now. (JMO)

Foul play closer to home - I think major crimes is tackling that prong of the investigation and we don't know where they are with that. We do know they appear to be investigating this prong very closely.

I don't believe they've discounted anything or developed tunnel vision., I think they are following all available leads and right now it appears the third option is being closely examined.

The public I can't speak for.