CANADA Canada - Sonia Varaschin, 42, Orangeville, 29 Aug 2010 - #2

[dreamwatcher]

cops are adamant that she was murdered in her townhouse either late evening or early Sunday.

 

[matou]

cops are adamant that she was murdered in her townhouse either late evening or early Sunday.

Yes, Sunday approaching midnight or in the early hours of Monday morning. She was supposed to work that Monday. Is that what you mean? Did someone state otherwise?

Sonia Varaschin, a 42-year-old nurse, went missing late on Sunday or early on Monday morning, and although her family still pleads for her safe return, investigators presented an increasingly desperate picture.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/09/03/police-seek-missing-orangeville-womans-bedding/

I don't think Sonia could have been murdered in the early hours of Sunday because she went to her parents on Sunday.
Police had phoned the family later that Monday when Sonia didn’t show up for work at noon.

Michele thinks back to that Sunday, the last time she saw her daughter alive. There was lunch at the family home in Bolton and later a message left on the phone.


http://www.thestar.com/news/crime/2...chin_murder_probe_set_to_enter_new_phase.html

 

[dreamwatcher]

Sorry, I meant early Monday. I was asleep at the switch.

 

[dreamwatcher]

What is it about this case that has police hitting a brick wall? They have three crime scenes, her computer, her car, videos of citizens, one of which they have turned to the public to identify. They held onto it for four years.
They have taken dna samples from appox. 600 men, and no match.
On her third anniversary we were told by the Lead Inspector that each day they are closer to solving this.> On a scale of one to ten, how close is close?
If it is heading anywhere, it is going at a snails pace. Memories fade, and citizens move away. Those who stay have returned to their normal everyday routine. No longer fearful of being attacked by a vicious killer on the loose.
To be honest, there has not been a similar incident (murder) in that area. So much for the thought of a serial killer in Orangeville and surrounding area.
Just my opinion.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

http://www.sagepub.com/upm-data/50423_ch_2.pdf

Crime Scene Profiling

The profilers simply continue to get it wrong, and yet the police and media rely on them
as if they are predictions from the oracle at Delphi.
There are dates, places, and times that have more factual merit to the investigative process than the behavioral
characteristics identified by FBI, psychological, and psychiatric profilers.

 

[Wondergirl]

Perhaps this article gives a 'reason' why the body was moved:

https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=99117

In contrast, the disorganized offender is likely to be of below average intelligence, low birth order, and subjected to harsh parental discipline. He is in a confused and distressed state of mind at the time of the murder, is socially inadequate, and sexually incompetent. The crime scene shows that the crime was committed suddenly with no set plan of action for deterring detection. Facial destruction and sexually sadistic acts performed after the murder are typical. Disorganized offenders usually leave the victim in the same position in which he or she was killed and make no attempt to conceal the body.

**********************************


I think everything applies here except the final sentence.

Key thing to me - Sexual Disfunction

Maybe, unpleasantly, the perp took her to the recovery location so he could finish his sexual act.

Jmo

 

[Wondergirl]

Good analysis matou. I also think that the perp was young and local and knew where to go in town to avoid surveillance cameras when disposing of the car at Greenhawk. And that they walked home from there and were also on foot at Sonia's townhouse complex. The two young men seen on camera at that gazebo may not be the actual perps in this case but it proves that young people, on foot, do hang out in that park and that alley at odd times of the night/morning so they would be familiar with it.

I also believe that the perp was not that familiar with Beechgrove Sideroad, especially at the end of it where Sonia's body was found. I think they turned onto that road to get off the main road out of town where there would be other traffic. They kept driving along the sideroad looking for a good place to dump the body until they got to the other end without finding a good spot to pull off somewhere secluded. At that point they panicked that they were back at another "main road" so they may have done a U Turn and headed west back towards Orangeville and decided just to pull over at a dark place and drag the body as far off the road as possible quickly, just in case another car were to come along and witness Sonia's car pulled over. I think it was very dark which is why they didnt notice the swamp on the other side of the road which would have been a "better place" to dump a body and get rid of DNA evidence quickly. I think they were unfamiliar with the area and didn't know that they were actually dumping the body on private property in an area with residents who walked that road because it was dark and the growth on the side of the road was likely pretty tall.

Why move the body? Once again, I believe a young perp who watches crime shows or reads about crime scenes on the Internet would have an idea that they must remove their DNA from the scene. Removing the victim and the bedding would accomplish removing the obvious source of their own DNA. I don't think a transient or serial criminal who has not been caught and therefore LE do not have their DNA on file, would have cared and gone to that kind of risk or trouble. But someone known to the victim or who has ties to the area might. Now after the body was found, it wouldn't surprise me if this person left the area, at least for a while, if that's where they lived. At that point they would know that their DNA would be tied to the murder and that LE may do a sweep of people local or known to the victim. I don't think this person is going to be caught committing another crime that requires their DNA to be put on file. I only hope that someone close to them who may suspect their involvement, grows a conscience and calls LE with what they know.

MOO

Do any locals know if Beechgrove sideroad is a common makeout location??

 

[dreamwatcher]

http://www.sagepub.com/upm-data/50423_ch_2.pdf

Crime Scene Profiling

The profilers simply continue to get it wrong, and yet the police and media rely on them
as if they are predictions from the oracle at Delphi.
There are dates, places, and times that have more factual merit to the investigative process than the behavioral
characteristics identified by FBI, psychological, and psychiatric profilers.

I agree. That is all that law enforcement ever talks about ( this profile which was so generic) it would fit most people.
Example: "Might have missed school, work or appointments."

School could cover teenagers, work could cover an adult.
Might have increased alcohol consumption. Right! By how much?? A whole lot - or just a little bit?

It is viewed as a possible enhancement to law enforcement - it is not the end all or be all IMO.
It is very often considered to be an art - as per the link posted - rather than a true science. Although they are working on it. (Science with data etc.)

 

[dreamwatcher]

Thank you Kamille. Where they placed the body, and why they place her body there, is at last making sense.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ount-in-idyllic-corner-of-gta/article4210398/

quote from link
“If they had just put the body on the other side of the road, in the swamp, no one would have found her,” says Mr. Colucci as he looks across the road where a bank of trees hides the kind of unvisited wetland common in Caledon.

Note: also how often the word "they" is used whenever citizens talk about the killer.

 

[Pink Panther]

If you look carefully, the second guy following once out of the gazebo…He's maybe a full head taller than the first. Other than that, it's really difficult to figure out anything from this. Maybe they are hoping one of these two will come forward...

 

[dreamwatcher]

After watching it several times, under different lighting, I have noticed a few new things. The second guy who is wearing unlaced tall boots is wearing a light coloured peak cap placed on his head backwards, He is carrying what appears to be a dark long trench coat part of it flung over his right shoulder (you can see the belt flowing from behind (briefly).
As he is walking behind his buddy, he glances across the parking lot.

The first guy is wearing white runners and it appears to me that he has a light coloured perhaps tan back pack
He is wearing a dark peak cap.
He puts his hands in his pockets, then (just before he disappears from the screen, he has his two hands in front of him,
glances down at them, and appears to be handling something (keys?) I cannot see what he has in his hands but he is using them.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

In contrast, the disorganized offender is likely to be of below average intelligence, low birth order, and subjected to harsh parental discipline. He is in a confused and distressed state of mind at the time of the murder, is socially inadequate, and sexually incompetent. The crime scene shows that the crime was committed suddenly with no set plan of action for deterring detection. Facial destruction and sexually sadistic acts performed after the murder are typical. Disorganized offenders usually leave the victim in the same position in which he or she was killed and make no attempt to conceal the body.

**********************************


I think everything applies here except the final sentence.

Key thing to me - Sexual Disfunction

Maybe, unpleasantly, the perp took her to the recovery location so he could finish his sexual act.

Jmo

http://www.sagepub.com/upm-data/50423_ch_2.pdf

The mixed crime scene —left behind by the mixed offender—has characteristics of both
organized and disorganized behavior. For example, a crime may have begun as carefully
planned, but deteriorated into a disorganized crime when things did not go as planned.
The O/D classification has also been extended to other crimes, including burglary and arson
(Douglas, Burgess, Burgess, & Ressler, 1992).

It should be emphasized that the
crime scene rarely will be completely organized or disorganized.
It is more likely to be somewhere on a continuum between the two extremes of
the orderly, neat crime scene and the disarrayed, sloppy one. (p. 9)

In fact, the researchers found very
little co-occurrence of variables in either the crime scenes that would be classified as
organized or those that would be classified as disorganized. For example, in 70% of
organized cases, the body was concealed and there were also multiple crime scenes.
This is a statistically respectable co-occurrence, but it was one of only two situations in
which co-occurrences were that high (the other one being sexual activity with a live
victim and a body posed in 75% of the cases). Disorganized crime scenes found even
less co-occurence.

The research group point out that the organized/disorganized typology proposes
that specific characteristics only happen together (co-occur) with certain other characteristics.
If the offender was organized, then it may be assumed that most—if not all—of the behavioral
characteristics listed under organized offenders (see Tables 2.1 and 2.2) will be evident.
A similar assumption is proposed for disorganized offenders.




There is much more in this publication. I don't know, whether I just found the important excerpts.

I'm always on the search for a reason to transport the victim out of the crime scene :eye: but can't say I'm successful with this.

 

[Wondergirl]

Thank you Kamille. Where they placed the body, and why they place her body there, is at last making sense.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ount-in-idyllic-corner-of-gta/article4210398/

quote from link
“If they had just put the body on the other side of the road, in the swamp, no one would have found her,” says Mr. Colucci as he looks across the road where a bank of trees hides the kind of unvisited wetland common in Caledon.

Note: also how often the word "they" is used whenever citizens talk about the killer.

Screams NOT a local.

Contradictions

 

[Wondergirl]

http://www.sagepub.com/upm-data/50423_ch_2.pdf

The mixed crime scene —left behind by the mixed offender—has characteristics of both
organized and disorganized behavior. For example, a crime may have begun as carefully
planned, but deteriorated into a disorganized crime when things did not go as planned.
The O/D classification has also been extended to other crimes, including burglary and arson
(Douglas, Burgess, Burgess, & Ressler, 1992).

It should be emphasized that the
crime scene rarely will be completely organized or disorganized.
It is more likely to be somewhere on a continuum between the two extremes of
the orderly, neat crime scene and the disarrayed, sloppy one. (p. 9)

In fact, the researchers found very
little co-occurrence of variables in either the crime scenes that would be classified as
organized or those that would be classified as disorganized. For example, in 70% of
organized cases, the body was concealed and there were also multiple crime scenes.
This is a statistically respectable co-occurrence, but it was one of only two situations in
which co-occurrences were that high (the other one being sexual activity with a live
victim and a body posed in 75% of the cases). Disorganized crime scenes found even
less co-occurence.

The research group point out that the organized/disorganized typology proposes
that specific characteristics only happen together (co-occur) with certain other characteristics.
If the offender was organized, then it may be assumed that most—if not all—of the behavioral
characteristics listed under organized offenders (see Tables 2.1 and 2.2) will be evident.
A similar assumption is proposed for disorganized offenders.




There is much more in this publication. I don't know, whether I just found the important excerpts.

I'm always on the search for a reason to transport the victim out of the crime scene :eye: but can't say I'm successful with this.

Great article.

Important to remember and difficult to get your head around, the brain wants to categorize neatly.

We think with a peaceful, non-violent mind.

A murderer does not.

 

[Wondergirl]

I kind of have 2 theories on this case.

One is a young, local perp on drugs, possibly with his buddies involved.

The other is a serial killer.

I am strongly convinced that Sonia and Audrey Gleaves murders are connected by the same killer.

I don't think there have been any other extremely violent sadistic sex murders here in Ontario since then.

What about elsewhere?

 

[matou]

I kind of have 2 theories on this case.

One is a young, local perp on drugs, possibly with his buddies involved.

The other is a serial killer.

I am strongly convinced that Sonia and Audrey Gleaves murders are connected by the same killer.

I don't think there have been any other extremely violent sadistic sex murders here in Ontario since then.

What about elsewhere?

There was also the photographer in Mono who was violently assaulted. Wasn't Audrey Gleaves' body left at the scene?

Sonia's murder could have been disorganized if two perps are involved and they were both scrambling about what to do and where to put her body.

Has the DNA evidence been compared to a US database?

 

[dreamwatcher]

There are continual checks with other crimes as they occur.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/0...slaying-of-orangeville-nurse-sonia-varaschin/
quote
Q What about the public-safety aspect? Have police found any links between this case and other unsolved murders?

A Those things are always in the forefront of our mind and there are avenues in place to make sure those checks and balances occur. We have conferred on different cases with different investigators, but at present it doesn’t seem to be the case. unquote
-------------------------------
Her case is multijurisdictional with law enforcement

 

[Deleted member 102539]

O/T, sorry but .........

Please come and have fun with us.

Ingrid

This is some information I copied from our NJF of Clearwater Website. As you can see, Spook Handy will be our headliner. He has performed more times with Pete than I can count. Recently, he has been doing fantastic Memorial Concerts in honor of Pete. You won’t be disappointed:

CLEARWATER FESTIVAL
September 13 2014
Celebrating Our 40th Anniversary
As a Sloop Club

Located at The Great Lawn
Corner of Madison & McKinley Avenues
Adjacent to the Promenade
Long Branch, NJ 07740

11:00am - 7:00 pm
FREE! ONE DAY! FREE!
This Year's Theme:
What Would Pete Do?

Honoring Our Founder, Pete Seeger 1919-2014
Top Name Performers!
on Three Stages
South Gazebo Stage
11:00pm
Emily Ainbinder
11:40pm
Keith Monacchio
12:20pm
Kevin John Allen Band
1:20pm
Carolann Solebello
2:20pm
Taylor Tote Trio
3:20pm
Great Blue
4:20pm
James Durst
5:20pm
John Rango & Mike Jaskewicz
-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

Today I got this email from my classmate (female) who is living near New Jersey, a singer and songwriter and co-organizer for monthly events.
Never I had heard of "gazebos" and had to ask you WS, what do you have gazebos for - and now there is this specific word in her mail!

 

[dotr]

Were 'witnesses' on gazebo in the early hours shooting/ rehearsing for a video?

 

[Kamille]

If you look carefully, the second guy following once out of the gazebo…He's maybe a full head taller than the first. Other than that, it's really difficult to figure out anything from this. Maybe they are hoping one of these two will come forward...

I don't understand why they didn't come forward in the first place if they knew they were that close to one of the crime scenes assuming one or both of them are not the perp. Other than the possibility it was a drug deal going on that morning and they didn't have a good explanation why they were there at such an odd time. Maybe young and scared and didn't want to deal with LE questions. But they're not that young anymore. And there's nothing they were doing that they can "get in trouble" for now. There has to be a reason why these two did not come forward to LE and help with determining a timeline back then. But there is no good reason now if they know about that video being released.

I wonder if we'll ever know if one or both do come forward and speak to LE?

MOO