CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #18

[NC Analyzer]

How do we know he was wearing shorts? Did he not pack any long pants?

If he didn't pack long pants then well... I'll just stop right there with my next train of thought on improper packing/planning for weather conditions.

If he did pack long pants why could he have not changed into long pants and put his "dirty" shorts into his backpack?

How cold was it the evening he arrived in shorts? Not that it really matters but my boy will walk out of the house to go to school wearing shorts in 40 degree weather and not think twice about it and we live in the south!

ETA: I don't think he took off from the house with his things with the intention of walking to his friends or hoping to find a ride. I do think it is possible he was outside playing or walking to a neighbors (even in shorts) and someone stopped to offer him a ride or use of their phone (if his wasn't working).

BBM: So this "someone" took the time to take him back to MR's house to collect his backpack, fishing pole and not working cell phone? :waitasec:

ETA: Nevermind. I see what you're saying. You think he took his things with him and he "just happened" to run into that random kidnapper.

 

[white rabbit]

Ok, thanks. So not 20 miles hitchhiking. "just" 8. In the cold. Wearing shorts.

lol. i don't know why that made me laugh. add a bum cell phone and fishing pole.

there IS an interview but i can't find it. it was just before the mass search because of the snow; was via phone (not video) with a reporter; she asks if dylan had a coat. mark said (iirc) "that's one of the things i asked him, do you have a coat. and he said no". the reporter mentioned a hoodie and they both agreed it was too cold if he was lost wearing just a hoodie.

they both specifically said "COAT". not jacket. that part i remember clearly. someone help me find it? it was during a news broadcast and it was a very short clip. looked like a local station...TIA.

 

[ChiTownLass]

Let's forget the tech-savvy kid. Let's just pretend for a minute that the cell battery died, or the charger was forgotten/broken, or the cell was broken, or nobody noticed the cell or battery wasn't operational, or the internet was down, or Dylan didn't have the password to the internet, or the land line was out (bill not paid).
From there, let's also assume that MR didn't have any knowledge of Dylan's inability to communicate. Let's also assume that Dylan was so exhausted (at 13, after a reasonable night sleep) that he simply couldn't get out of bed to visit his friends. Let's further assume that if Dylan didn't wake up with dad due to his exhaustion, that he woke up later that morning and decided on a whim, (after a bowl of cereal and watching tv) that he would just take off hitchhiking 20 miles to his friends house...not knowing exactly where his friend was, or leaving a note; so he just leaves...hauling his backpack, fishing pole and wearing a pair of shorts. In the cold. In a very rural area.
An opportunistic predator just happens to come along at that exact time, on that very rural road and abducts him?
Or let's say he headed to a neighbor's house...in that very rural location. And a predator just happens by?
If this was a movie script, no one would buy it.

The statistical probability of this happening is miniscule.
Stranger abductions account for less than 1.5% of all child abductions, leaving family/acquaintances, accounting for 98.5% of all child abductions.
Most stranger abductions occur in highly populated areas.
74% of teenage abductions are female.

Now on the other hand, the odds are much greater that a parent had some involvement in Dylan's disappearance. Hmmmmm....

The thanks button was not enough!! :gthanks:

 

[NC Analyzer]

lol. i don't know why that made me laugh. add a bum cell phone and fishing pole.

there IS an interview but i can't find it. it was just before the mass search because of the snow; was via phone (not video) with a reporter; she asks if dylan had a coat. mark said (iirc) "that's one of the things i asked him, do you have a coat. and he said no". the reporter mentioned a hoodie and they both agreed it was too cold if he was lost wearing just a hoodie.

they both specifically said "COAT". not jacket. that part i remember clearly. someone help me find it? it was during a news broadcast and it was a very short clip. looked like a local station...TIA.

Well, I try to be positive about this coat/jacket thing...(although, sadly, it is fading), but to be fair; there are "hoodies" and there are "HOODIES", lol. Living in the south now, my daughter wears a HOODIE most of the winter here...an LLBean with a shepra liner. Keeps her pretty warm. If I recall, the temps were pretty mild for the time of year, so sending him with a hoodie wouldn't be saying much unless we know the type. I still think he wouldn't go off wearing just shorts...especially if he only had a hoodie, lol. He would have known it was going to be a cold walk.

 

[azgrandma]

I don't know about anyone else here, but every time someone mentions the fact that nobody else can verify that MR and Dylan did spend Sunday evening together ... It makes me wonder how I could prove the same thing on demand? My older son is staying at a mates for a couple of days so my 13yo and I have been home alone together for the past 24 hours. How would I prove that to anyone at a later date? I'm not understanding why some valid scenarios are discounted on the grounds that something rather unprovable can't be proved? And yes, there is the phone inactivity - but I do think some are placing a lot of weight on how [BOLD]they[/BOLD] expect Dylan to have reacted to possibly having a dead phone. We don't know Dylan, and only have a few crumbs of info from his friends and family to run with (which makes it even stranger to me that some of those crumbs - like the references to hitch hiking, can be automatically discounted), so we generalise about what our own teens might have done in similar situations. They are generalisations though. I don't think my 13yo is odd - but I know his actions would be very different to a lot of the opinions posted here about how a 13yo would be expected to behave.
:moo:

My laptop died last night, so typing rather crankily on my iPad - irk!

BBM - IMO, the big concern about proving MR was with Dylan on Sunday night is taken from his own words.
If you start a story about picking your son up, going to McDonald's then Walmart, then say nothing about the entire rest of the night, then resume your story starting with trying to wake your son at 730 am, running errands, coming home..................

That is where the concern for proof comes in, there has been not mention of what they were doing from the time they got home to the next morning, (with the exception of MR saying they tossed a football around a few times Sunday night - which sounds absurd considering how dark it would be and the time of night)

If I asked you what you and your son were doing last night, you might say watching tv. Ok, what show were you watching? What was it about? When did you go to bed? When did your son go to bed?

MR has details about EVERYTHING with times to back it up - EXCEPT for Sunday evening after Walmart to Monday morning. That's where the red flags go up.

 

[cluciano63]

Was Dylan even at his dad's yet when the phone texting ended? And if not, didn't he and Dad still play football that night according to Dad? If true, Dylan did not go right to sleep while or soon after his last text and would have wanted to see a reply from his friend if he could. JMO

I will be flabbergasted it we learn that Dylan had no phone service and took off without trying to make contact with his friend, or leaving a note. But in any case, I will also be flabbergasted if we ever know what happened, sadly.

 

[bambi_sue]

I haven't believed from the start that Dylan would've walked 20 miles to Bayfield under those conditions - on the map Ransom linked to under walking directions, it would take about 7 hours, not including breaks.

Then, I had a sudden memory, which I'm sharing with you FWIW:

My DH and I were on a trip a few years ago at the coast, and he shared that he'd gone to a camp not far from where we were. One day they had a "free day" and he decided to walk to a landmark he'd seen on the way into camp, without telling anyone at the camp. He set out initially on his own, but then another guy from camp decided to go with him. They started out...and eight hours later, they made it to the landmark. They had about 20 minutes to do "boy things" like splash around in the ocean and jump off things and stab seaweed with sticks, and it started to get dark. They started to head back, realized they were going to be in deep you-know-what when they got back so late, and stuck out their thumb to hitch their way back up the coastal highway. An older gentleman picked them up, luckily he wasn't a lunatic, and they made it back to camp in time to only be lightly scolded at being late for dinner - somehow they fell through the cracks during the day and no one had noticed their prolonged absence.

DH was 14 when this happened. I told him I thought he was nuts, and he replied that they didn't ever once think about the possible ramifications of their little adventure.

P.S. I've changed my username recently, so my name may be unfamiliar, but I've been following along here from the start, just not posting much lately. :seeya:

 

[IHAVENOCLUE]

This reminds me of Shawn Atkins, the last person known to have seen young Hailey Dunn, also 13. And Shawn worked for a pipeline company as well. And no one has found Sweet Hailey yet either.

Makes you wonder... Do these pipeline guys (ones with evil intentions) get together and discuss their top 10 places to bury bodies...?

Maybe we should talk with some good intentioned pipeline guys to see if they have ever overheard the scheming of their coworkers?

JMO

 

[cluciano63]

BBM - IMO, the big concern about proving MR was with Dylan on Sunday night is taken from his own words.
If you start a story about picking your son up, going to McDonald's then Walmart, then say nothing about the entire rest of the night, then resume your story starting with trying to wake your son at 730 am, running errands, coming home..................

That is where the concern for proof comes in, there has been not mention of what they were doing from the time they got home to the next morning, (with the exception of MR saying they tossed a football around a few times Sunday night - which sounds absurd considering how dark it would be and the time of night)

If I asked you what you and your son were doing last night, you might say watching tv. Ok, what show were you watching? What was it about? When did you go to bed? When did your son go to bed?

MR has details about EVERYTHING with times to back it up - EXCEPT for Sunday evening after Walmart to Monday morning. That's where the red flags go up.

I wonder if the reporters asked those detailed questions. I am sure LE did. But even if the reporters did not ask, I would think that MR would recite the whole evening anyway, when talking about it. And instead he leaves an almost 12-hr gap when I guess Dylan just tumbled over and passed out into a deep sleep. I don't know...

 

[catswhiskers]

Being that this area is so small, I wonder if MR knew the RSO that lived so close, maybe even DR knew him....but didn't know of him being a RSO.

IMO most men would probably not think about this unless it was broadcast throughout the town. I think it tends to be mums who are on the lookout, or wary of this kind of thing - even if it's just making a mental note of the creepy looking guy who lives up the road. In a small town chances are MR has probably met them and not even known. Horrible to think that he might have even shared info about Dylan's visit with someone dangerous.

 

[NC Analyzer]

I guess one of the things I don't understand is for those who think Dylan was impulsive enough to take off to see his friends because he just couldn't wait for a ride from MR, then why wouldn't he get out of bed that morning? A little contradictory to believe he was so anxious that he would have hitchhiked, but not anxious enough to wake up...or even wait an hour or two for a ride. Doesn't work both ways for me.

 

[FootballMom]

BBM: So this "someone" took the time to take him back to MR's house to collect his backpack, fishing pole and not working cell phone? :waitasec:

ETA: Nevermind. I see what you're saying. You think he took his things with him and he "just happened" to run into that random kidnapper.

I checked Wunderground to give myself an idea of the "mindset" for dressing appropriately for weather conditions.

Dylan arrived wearing shorts in 45 degree weather.

The temperature at 8am on Monday was around 30 degrees but by 10am had climbed to 45 degrees. It might not have bothered him to be outside in shorts for a bit or even longer than the rest of us would be comfortable with.

No, I don't think he took off on his own with his things hoping to catch a ride. I think he would have left a note if he wasn't able to reach his dad on the phone.

I think it is possible he was outside goofing around/playing/killing time either in the front of the house or nearby and a perp "ran into him". This perp could have been a stranger pretending to be a friend of dad's or a neighbor or Dylan may have met him previously.

Perp: "Hey there, whatcha up to?"

Dylan: "Nothing much, just waiting for my dad to get back so I can go hang with my friends."

Perp: (thinks to himself ahhh... he is alone but for how long?... how do I get him into my car without a struggle?)

Perp: "Sounds like fun, I bet you are ready for him to hurry up." (trying to find out how soon dad would be back.)

Dylan: "Yeah, I was supposed to go early this morning. He is supposed to be back around 11am-11:30am."

Perp: "Well I was just heading into town, why don't you go grab your things and I'll call your dad while you get them to let him know." (or if Dylan's phone wasn't working - "You can use my phone to call him when you get back."). "That way you don't have to wait around any longer and your dad won't have to drive back into town."

Dylan: "Really? You wouldn't mind? That would be awesome, thanks! Be right back."

Dylan grabs his stuff, doesn't need to leave a note since either he or perp will be calling dad, walks out the door, gets into perp's vehicle without any trouble and is never seen nor heard from again.

That is just one scenario I find very plausible... I also have others where he is walking to the neighbors to use the phone or the perp comes to the door for a variety of reasons.

 

[mijamawi]

I'm still catching up so this may be randomly placed, but if I read the texts correctly, the friend texted him at 6:46AM but then not again until 10 to tell him to come to another friends house. And then, doesn't text again until he says his dad is looking for him. Is that correct?

 

[mkay882]

How do we know what time he, might have, left to walk/hitch to his friends?
Could have been 11:20 as easily as 7:30...?
Warm enough for shorts by then and Dylan may not have been thinking of the weather.
I fear he either had an accident and hasn't been spotted or was snatched on the road/hwy.

 

[vasportsmom]

I'm 15 pages behind so can I assume we are still having the same fights with no new info or do I need to go back and read? If I can start right here just assume that I said "yeah that" to anything Shef, ttcRider & TxJan may have said.

Where are you Dylan?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NC Analyzer]

I checked Wunderground to give myself an idea of the "mindset" for dressing appropriately for weather conditions.

Dylan arrived wearing shorts in 45 degree weather.

The temperature at 8am on Monday was around 30 degrees but by 10am had climbed to 45 degrees. It might not have bothered him to be outside in shorts for a bit or even longer than the rest of us would be comfortable with.

No, I don't think he took off on his own with his things hoping to catch a ride. I think he would have left a note if he wasn't able to reach his dad on the phone.

I think it is possible he was outside goofing around/playing/killing time either in the front of the house or nearby and a perp "ran into him". This perp could have been a stranger pretending to be a friend of dad's or a neighbor or Dylan may have met him previously.

Perp: "Hey there, whatcha up to?"

Dylan: "Nothing much, just waiting for my dad to get back so I can go hang with my friends."

Perp: (thinks to himself ahhh... he is alone but for how long?... how do I get him into my car without a struggle?)

Perp: "Sounds like fun, I bet you are ready for him to hurry up." (trying to find out how soon dad would be back.)

Dylan: "Yeah, I was supposed to go early this morning. He is supposed to be back around 11am-11:30am."

Perp: "Well I was just heading into town, why don't you go grab your things and I'll call your dad while you get them to let him know." (or if Dylan's phone wasn't working - "You can use my phone to call him when you get back."). "That way you don't have to wait around any longer and your dad won't have to drive back into town."

Dylan: "Really? You wouldn't mind? That would be awesome, thanks! Be right back."

Dylan grabs his stuff, doesn't need to leave a note since either he or perp will be calling dad, walks out the door, gets into perp's vehicle without any trouble and is never seen nor heard from again.

That is just one scenario I find very plausible... I also have others where he is walking to the neighbors to use the phone or the perp comes to the door for a variety of reasons.

You do know the odds are astronomical against any of that happening?
Really not trying to be snarky, but astronomical.

 

[LotusPawprint]

lol. i don't know why that made me laugh. add a bum cell phone and fishing pole.

there IS an interview but i can't find it. it was just before the mass search because of the snow; was via phone (not video) with a reporter; she asks if dylan had a coat. mark said (iirc) "that's one of the things i asked him, do you have a coat. and he said no". the reporter mentioned a hoodie and they both agreed it was too cold if he was lost wearing just a hoodie.

they both specifically said "COAT". not jacket. that part i remember clearly. someone help me find it? it was during a news broadcast and it was a very short clip. looked like a local station...TIA.

Here's the video:


http://www.koat.com/news/new-mexico...7714292/-/11uwpygz/-/index.html?absolute=true



Also, maybe I'm nitpicking.... from video

Investigators flagged items, including a sock (not yet clear if sock belongs to Dylan)
"There was a sock fitting the description of a type of sock that Dylan would wear." ... said MR

Great. He can identify a type of sock Dylan might wear (probably thanks to ER and/or the reference photographs provided by LE), but no known idea whatsoever as to what went on with Dylan's cell phone ceasing communication/activity after 8pm?

...hmm.... sock/cell phone? sock/cell phone? cell phone/sock?

 

[NC Analyzer]

I'm 15 pages behind so can I assume we are still having the same fights with no new info or do I need to go back and read? If I can start right here just assume that I said "yeah that" to anything Shef, ttcRider & TxJan may have said.

Where are you Dylan?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hey!! You forgot about me! :great:

 

[FootballMom]

BBM: So this "someone" took the time to take him back to MR's house to collect his backpack, fishing pole and not working cell phone? :waitasec:

ETA: Nevermind. I see what you're saying. You think he took his things with him and he "just happened" to run into that random kidnapper.

I wonder if the reporters asked those detailed questions. I am sure LE did. But even if the reporters did not ask, I would think that MR would recite the whole evening anyway, when talking about it. And instead he leaves an almost 12-hr gap when I guess Dylan just tumbled over and passed out into a deep sleep. I don't know...

FWIW and knowing exactly what goes into interviewing the parent of a missing child... You speak with & film the parent for 30-45 minutes and then you have to shave that down into a 2 minute news segment. LOTS of info is going to be deleted. Unfortunately probably LOTS of info that you wanted to be heard in the news.

I know of one particular case where an "presumed runaway" (by LE not by family & friends) made an orthodontist appointment the day they disappeared for later in the week. That info was repeated to several reporters a few times but it NEVER made it into any news report. The public was left with the impression this person had just taken off and they were not able to consider that people who are going to "run away" do not make orthodontist appointments. Just sayin...

JMO

 

[NC Analyzer]

How do we know what time he, might have, left to walk/hitch to his friends?
Could have been 11:20 as easily as 7:30...?
Warm enough for shorts by then and Dylan may not have been thinking of the weather.
I fear he either had an accident and hasn't been spotted or was snatched on the road/hwy.

Because if it was 11:20, MR would have seen him on his drive home. One road in and one road out.
If it was an accident, he would have been found by now. Too many searches to discount that, IMO.
If it was that "against all odds, astronomical happening, perfectly timed kidnapper....well you know :banghead: