CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #28

[SCHMAE]

That right there is what frustrates me most. I can't speak for anyone else, but for me it's not so much I think MR is innocent, I just don't have all the information I (me personally) need to convict him in my mind.



But who says they haven't? Just because they haven't said it out loud? IIRC they haven't cleared anyone.

Here's the thing..... we don't have to convict him. He's not been charged. We are merely pointing out suspicious activities, words, circumstances. Those who act like we've been jury and tried and convicted him are way off base. It takes a ton more evidence to convict someone and there's nothing to say there will ever be enough to convict anyone.
I personally find MR a very likely suspect. That is a long way from convicting him. If I sat on a jury today with what little info we have, there's no way I could convict him. I might be suspicious and I might be pretty sure he did it but that's not the law of proof beyond a doubt. Thankfully if and when charges are filed , it will be up to others to weigh the evidence and decide his fate.
In the grand scheme of think I doubt very much if MR gives two hoots what the people of WS think of him or what anyone else on the interwebs thinks of him.

 

[Tonto]

Disagree. I get a gut feeling on most cases I follow here.

Well, if we all went with our gut feelings all of the time we would still think the earth was flat. That's not meant as an affront to you - just a general observation.

IMO.

 

[asyousay]

If LE know that Mark is innocent then they are playing a dangerous game if that backfires and this goes south IMO ..

There has been talk that Mark could be suicidal and so if god forbid somethinf happened and LE then reveal they always knew it was not him , then I assume there would be legal repercussions as you can not play around with people like that . He is not lab rat !!

MOO

MOO

 

[Seajay]

Confirmation bias has no bearing on how intelligent one is. Everyone possesses it. It's something that one has to consciously identify and then try to quash as much as possible when trying to reason effectively. It takes practice and even then it is still one of the hardest things to train oneself to do. It's one of the largest obstacles to overcome in research, and both physical and social scientists - all utterly brilliant mind you - do everything in their power to limit it.

I think if folks truly took a step back from all of the noise - that is, all of the rumor, innuendo, and the smear from alleged 20 year old behavior - and instead focused entirely on what we know at this point, then there is absolutely no way one can be convinced that MR did this. Again, I'm not saying he didn't - I'm saying that the facts aren't there.

IOW, make the evidence fit the theory rather than gain a theory from the evidence.

 

[katydid23]

Confirmation bias has no bearing on how intelligent one is. Everyone possesses it. It's something that one has to consciously identify and then try to quash as much as possible when trying to reason effectively. It takes practice and even then it is still one of the hardest things to train oneself to do. It's one of the largest obstacles to overcome in research, and both physical and social scientists - all utterly brilliant mind you - do everything in their power to limit it.

I think if folks truly took a step back from all of the noise - that is, all of the rumor, innuendo, and the smear from alleged 20 year old behavior - and instead focused entirely on what we know at this point, then there is absolutely no way one can be convinced that MR did this. Again, I'm not saying he didn't - I'm saying that the facts aren't there.

I am not 100% convinced that MR is involved. More like 70% so far.

Mostly because of motive and opportunity. And the fact that no one else heard from Dylan on Monday morning. And the odd criticism that MR made about LE not searching the lake sooner, because of the missing fishing pole. And the change in the story of his last moments with his son---from him being 'out like a light' to MR ' gently nudging him awake, and explaining he had to leave, and DR understood..."

 

[Seajay]

Dan Bender, a spokesman for the La Plata County Sheriff’s office, said he could not comment on polygraph tests, or even confirm if they had been administered.
“We cannot show all our cards, so to speak, he said. “If were to keep the public informed, we also would be keeping potential suspects informed.”

He said suspectS, what does he mean by that, that there is more than one person they suspect or might think had something to do with this?? Someone besides MR? Say it isn't so!!!

 

[asyousay]

He said suspectS, what does he mean by that, that there is more than one person they suspect or might think had something to do with this?? Someone besides MR? Say it isn't so!!!

A figure of speech IMO

He can hardly say suspect and then everybody would jump over that . It only leaves one person in the frame .

 

[Dixie811]

He said suspectS, what does he mean by that, that there is more than one person they suspect or might think had something to do with this?? Someone besides MR? Say it isn't so!!!

To be honest, I interpreted that as a very general statement. "potential suspects"... to me, anyone who takes a polygraph was at one point a "potential suspect" (probably includes any parent at the beginning of a missing child case). This does not mean IMO that there are still multiple "potential suspects".

Just my opinion, it's very possible that there is more to that statement than what I took from it.

 

[SCHMAE]

But what if they have their eye on someone else and clearing MR could ruin that. I would bet my left arm there will be a large LE presence at the "rally" to ensure it doesn't get out of hand. Again, LE has cleared NO ONE! JMO

Also, often at events like this ( not sure there has been an event like this before, but u know what i mean) sometimes the perp out of curiosity and a swollen pride will show up to be present and see what's going on and even feign some concern. Could be why LE said go ahead if you want to , we can't stop you and then thought it's a good time to suss the crowd and see who everyone is and where they've come from and if anyone seems odd. Note to LE , it's the guy in the baseball cap. It always is on CSI !

 

[Seajay]

To me (not saying out loud) that he has been totally ruled out is a dis-service to the community that LE serves. If he has been totally cleared, why not tell the public so they can focus their efforts somewhere else (and us also!). Unless, perhaps he does play an indirect role in Dylan's disappearance?

Think about it though. If MR didn't do anything, and LE keeps a lid on that, the real perp is getting a false sense of security that he's not on LE's radar. If LE were to declare MR not a suspect, then the real culprit could hit the road and go into hiding. That's what I take LE's statement to mean, that they don't want to say anything because they don't want to tip their hand and show the suspects where they are going with this investigation and what they have already. They clear MR, they are showing their hand. A good poker player keeps his cards very close.

 

[SCHMAE]

I am not 100% convinced that MR is involved. More like 70% so far.

Mostly because of motive and opportunity. And the fact that no one else heard from Dylan on Monday morning. And the odd criticism that MR made about LE not searching the lake sooner, because of the missing fishing pole. And the change in the story of his last moments with his son---from him being 'out like a light' to MR ' gently nudging him awake, and explaining he had to leave, and DR understood..."

Katy, I was just thinking earlier I am about at 70% myself!

 

[belimom]

I was thinking about the last text - the new one we learned about. I thought I had read somewhere that Mark claimed Dylan fell asleep early on the couch. I searched but can't find a quote by Mark that actually says that. Even if Dylan did fall asleep early, there's nothing to say he didn't wake up and text later on.

However, in reading some of the earlier articles, I came across one in which Mark states that Dylan once offered to give up his bed for his visiting cousin so that she could sleep in it. This stood out to me b/c it made it seem like the bed is where he usually slept, rather than sometimes his bed, sometimes falling asleep on the couch. In no way do I think it unusual for someone to fall asleep on the couch - it's entirely possible even if you've never done it previously. But it was something that I noted.

But then, that train of thought led me to wonder why Mark would say that Dylan slept on the sofa if he had not (just a hypothetical question here - maybe Dylan did, maybe Dylan didn't). But let's say he didn't. What would be the advantage in saying that he did? Then it dawned on me: his scent. More than likely, the sheets in Dylan's bed had been washed since his last visit; hence, his scent may not be there. However, it's unlikely the couch upholstery had been washed or cleaned, so a faint scent from previous visits may still be lingering.

I don't know. Maybe I think too much. But I just wanted to share all of these 'what if's'...

 

[raine1212]

JMO... But I also realize that we may never know what happened.. Which is sad.. I seen that happen way to many times..We all want hard facts, but we are not going to get them..LE is not going to give them up..

Everyone here has great theories as to what has happened..just maybe one those theories possibly twisted with another theory may be the theory that breaks this case..just remember LE reads everywhere, investigates everywhere..so all theories each and everyone one you put out and discuss could just help put a case together.. We never know.. I have always said in the past let the theories roll out, twist them together..something might just be the clue we need. hugs to all of you..Your dedication to Dylan is shining!


PS excuse typos, taking meds for this cold/whatever I have...lol

 

[mijamawi]

I don't see how clearing MR could ruin it if they have their eye on someone else?

False sense of security. It's been used numerous times in re to MR.

To me (not saying out loud) that he has been totally ruled out is a dis-service to the community that LE serves. If he has been totally cleared, why not tell the public so they can focus their efforts somewhere else (and us also!). Unless, perhaps he does play an indirect role in Dylan's disappearance?

Why haven't they said anyone else has been cleared? :waitasec:

 

[scorekeeper]

Confirmation bias has no bearing on how intelligent one is. Everyone possesses it. It's something that one has to consciously identify and then try to quash as much as possible when trying to reason effectively. It takes practice and even then it is still one of the hardest things to train oneself to do. It's one of the largest obstacles to overcome in research, and both physical and social scientists - all utterly brilliant mind you - do everything in their power to limit it.

I think if folks truly took a step back from all of the noise - that is, all of the rumor, innuendo, and the smear from alleged 20 year old behavior - and instead focused entirely on what we know at this point, then there is absolutely no way one can be convinced that MR did this. Again, I'm not saying he didn't - I'm saying that the facts aren't there.

BBM

I have not based my opinions so far on an "alleged 20 year old behavior's" these past few days.

Until new facts emerge, I am looking at the last person to see Dylan and as from the very beginning that person has been Mark.

I can't move away from:

lack of communication from Dylan
all his stuff gone
Mark's story going from early Sunday evening to 11:30 am on Monday - right now there's way to many "holes" or lack of information in his story
Mark's past behaviors and violence
Mark's "hands-off" attitude toward everything/everyone
the dogs not picking up Dylan's scent in/around Mark's place
LE saying they can verify that Dylan made it to La Plata county

argree to disagree?

 

[pinkfly]

Well, I am very heartened to read that they are still very actively investigating this case. It has felt so cold to me that I thought they had done all they could until something new turned up.....but maybe they have something going on now.

So many cases never get any resolution. I so hope for Elaine and Cory to have closure and answers, soon.

 

[Bravo]

MOO but LE cant stop anyone from peacefully rallying or demonstrating anything. As long as they follow the Law. It's a right no matter the cause.

 

[belimom]

The thing about this last 'text' that doesn't sit right with me. Ryan's last text said for Dylan to call him when he got there. I'm assuming that this last text from Dylan's 'electronic device' was not to Ryan or it would've been shared already. (I could be wrong.) If it really was Dylan that texted - and he was not in distress and fine and his normal self, arriving at Mark's as planned, etc - then I think he would have texted or called Ryan to finish up their conversation or at least b/c Ryan asked him to.

Interesting that LE is holding the info in that last text close to the vest. MOO

 

[asyousay]

JMO... But I also realize that we may never know what happened.. Which is sad.. I seen that happen way to many times..We all want hard facts, but we are not going to get them..LE is not going to give them up..

Everyone here has great theories as to what has happened..just maybe one those theories possibly twisted with another theory may be the theory that breaks this case..just remember LE reads everywhere, investigates everywhere..so all theories each and everyone one you put out and discuss could just help put a case together.. We never know.. I have always said in the past let the theories roll out, twist them together..something might just be the clue we need. hugs to all of you..Your dedication to Dylan is shining!


PS excuse typos, taking meds for this cold/whatever I have...lol

O/T - get well soon . I have woken up as its 2:44am here because I was freezing cold and shivering and yet my head is so hot I could boil a egg on it . So I know how sucky it is to be ill .


I wonder if LE has asked the person who received that text off Dylan not to reveal anything to the family or media ??

 

[Dixie811]

I was thinking about the last text - the new one we learned about. I thought I had read somewhere that Mark claimed Dylan fell asleep early on the couch. I searched but can't find a quote by Mark that actually says that. Even if Mark did fall asleep early, there's nothing to say he didn't wake up and text later on.

However, in reading some of the earlier articles, I came across one in which Mark states that Dylan once offered to give up his bed for his visiting cousin so that she could sleep in it. This stood out to me b/c it made it seem like the bed is where he usually slept, rather than sometimes his bed, sometimes falling asleep on the couch. In no way do I think it unusual for someone to fall asleep on the couch - it's entirely possible even if you've never done it previously. But it was something that I noted.

But then, that train of thought led me to wonder why Mark would say that Dylan slept on the sofa if he had not (just a hypothetical question here - maybe Dylan did, maybe Dylan didn't). But let's say he didn't. What would be the advantage in saying that he did? Then it dawned on me: his scent. More than likely, the sheets in Dylan's bed had been washed since his last visit; hence, his scent may not be there. However, it's unlikely the couch upholstery had been washed or cleaned, so a faint scent from previous visits may still be lingering.

I don't know. Maybe I think too much. But I just wanted to share all of these 'what if's'...

We are talking about a single man here... no telling if those sheets have been washed since that September visit! :laughcry: