CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #32

[Dixie811]

There is a big difference between reasonable speculation, and unfounded speculation.

It is reasonable, for example, to speculate that MR may have knowledge of what happened to Dylan because he is the last known person to see Dylan. It doesn't mean he is automatically guilty. There are other reasonable scenarios we have speculated about.

Unfounded speculation that is not based in fact can actually cause more confusion, not only to WS members who follow the case but also to "guests" who come here to read about the case.

 

[azgrandma]

Thank you both nikb and azgrandma. Like you, this has been driving me nuts. Things are constantly being bandied about as FACT when it isn't, while speculating. We were told that we could speculate, but it had to be based on FACT. FACT. FACT.

I've read so many: If MR got mad at Dylan for texting, and accidently hit him and killed him with one blow, he could have hid the body on the way home." Ok, right here, we don't know if Mark got mad at Dylan while he was texting. We do know that Dylan WAS IN FACT texting. We don't know that MR hit him, we don't know if Dylan is dead, let alone that Mark killed him, we also don't know about hiding any body on the way home or at any other time because: WE DON'T KNOW IF DYLAN IS DEAD.

Out of this entire line of speculation, one thing and only one is true and fact. Dylan was texting.

I've seen speculations that MR killed DR either accidently or intentional. We don't know that DR is dead, let alone that MR did anything to him. We need to get back to the facts in this case and base our speculation on those. TYVM.

IMO speculation to a degree is probably expected, we can't toss out ideas unless we speculate. That (IMO) is what this forum is about. But IMO the speculation needs to based on facts.
i.e.
Mark got angry at Dylan because he was still texting at 937.

• We don't know if MR got angry, that's an assumption on our part.
• We do know that Dylan was texting, if we are to believe the newest version from MR on 9 news that Dylan was on the couch texting when he went to be.

vs
Dylan went outside and down the road to get a cell phone signal because the don't have cell reception at MR's house.
None of that is fact.

Please note that when I use the term, you, our, we - I am talking about me & the mouse in my pocket, not anyone in particular.

 

[nikb]

The little boy being held in Alabama is safe!!! Abductor is dead. Just heard a news update on this.

Sorry for the O/T

I'm a little late reading this but THANK YOU for sharing this!! What great news.

 

[azgrandma]

I sent my first tweet to 9 news, at least I'm hoping it was 9 news and the MB, otherwise someone out in tweet land is going to wonder about whether a movie was from cable, tv or rental.

 

[DylansMom34]

My hubby says that people that use twitter are twits.

Nice guy huh? :floorlaugh:

 

[azgrandma]

My hubby says that people that use twitter are twits.

Nice guy huh? :floorlaugh:

lol, well I guess that doesn't include me because I have no idea what I'm doing and I have no idea how she will answer me.

So for all you twitter experts, if you see her respond can you let me know??

 

[Lordeebee]

I sent my first tweet to 9 news, at least I'm hoping it was 9 news and the MB, otherwise someone out in tweet land is going to wonder about whether a movie was from cable, tv or rental.

Well, they will get at least 2 questions about the movie! I sent the same question just a bit ago...let us know if you hear back!

 

[scorekeeper]

I don't see any new tweets on her account....do they not show up until she reads them....need twitter 101

https://twitter.com/MelissaBlasius

 

[DylansMom34]

I set up a twitter a year or so ago but have never used it. I'm so glad you all are sending in questions.

 

[Lordeebee]

I don't see any new tweets on her account....do they not show up until she reads them....need twitter 101

https://twitter.com/MelissaBlasius

:floorlaugh:

you and me both! This was my first ever tweet, but I wonder if an answer (if there is one) would come to my email?

 

[JustJeannie]

I don't see any new tweets on her account....do they not show up until she reads them....need twitter 101

https://twitter.com/MelissaBlasius

If you look on her page, you will only see what she has tweeted. If you want to see what is being tweeted to her, search her username. (Put her username - including the @ sign - in the search box at the top of your home page.)

If you want to be sure and see her answer if she answers you, make sure you are following her. Then it will show up on your timeline on your page. You can follow her by going to her page and clicking the follow button.

Yes, I am an admitted "twit. " :floorlaugh:

Edit: You can set your account so that you will get an email whenever someone @ mentions your username. The setting is in your profile.

 

[nikb]

We have heard speculating that Dylan is alive and MR is innocent, when this hasn't been established as fact as well. My understanding is reasonable speculation based on the possibilities LE has set out which includes abduction or something happened in the home. LE hasn't speculated in awhile whether they believe Dylan is alive or not. JMO

I completely agree and my own post has been nagging at me since I wrote it earlier. I actually hurried back from grocery shopping so I could clarify!

Jumping off from your post, I hope I didn't come across as saying that any reasonable theories or speculation shouldn't be discussed because that wasn't my intent at all! Also I'm not a mod, nor do I play one on TV, so it's just my :twocents:. I hope I'm not stepping on any toes. I'm not trying to tell people how to post, that's up to the mods. I'm just talking about why it seems important to me as a fellow WSer.

What I was trying to get at is it's important, IMO, to differentiate what's speculation and what's known fact, so that the "what ifs" don't morph into facts. For example there's this: "What if Dylan didn't want to be there? IMO that might lead him to do XYZ" - to me that is a great starting point for ideas!

Compare that to: "Dylan didn't want to be there, so IMO he might do XYZ..." and speculation starts kind of revolving around the "fact" that he didn't want to be there. If it's repeated over and over or people are joining the discussion mid-way after 30+ threads, next thing you know many ideas start with "Since Dylan didn't want to be there..."

To me it's similar to the difference between "Since MR is innocent, here's an idea...", "What if MR is involved? In that case here's a thought..." and "What if MR isn't involved? In that case, here's a thought..." It can make a huge difference 2 or 3 pages (or threads) down the line. I really like reading the scenarios that are clearly identified as speculation based on the little we know as facts because they seem to get all of us thinking outside the box as azgrandma mentioned. Maybe we'll think of something helpful, you know?

Hope that makes sense (if it's clear as mud, my apologies). As always, the most important thing remains finding Dylan! I don't mean to be nitpicky - I really do think this applies to finding him. I worry that if we get stuck on facts that aren't facts we might overlook some possibility, theory, or idea that could ultimately be helpful.

All MOO. Come home soon Dylan.

 

[Ausgirl]

I've been reading along, not willing to really speculate. But looking at facts:

- Dylan's mother was awarded sole custody. And there was a reason for that.

- Dylan didn't see his dad for 2 months after that.

- The visit Dylan was making was court-ordered.

- The last anyone outside of Dylan's father heard from him was Sunday night.

- Dylan wanted to visit friends, not hang out with a dad he hadn't seen in months.

I am speculating that there was pretty good reason for a man to feel hard done by, right there.

And I am also speculating that a man nursing anger for several months, toward Dylan's mother and/or his kids who were all but estranged, could snap and hurt his son. And then lie about it.

Pedos who snatch kids from houses generally watch the house for a time, get secure in their opportunities to dive in and take their victim. Dylan hadn't seen his father for months. To me, it's a bit much of a stretch to speculate that a pedo happened by in the early hours of Monday and saw RM leave, and somehow also knew there was a boy alone in the house with no other adults present.

So IMO, a random house-snatching is pretty much off the cards.

And I am speculating that a text-proficient boy up early to go see his pals and planning on going alone would have texted them before he left or shortly after.

The chances of a random pedo happening to cruise past a boy from a troubled family who was left in the house alone, excited to see his friends, and who just happened that morning not to indulge his habit of texting his friends about everything, all coinciding at 7.30am-11.30am on a Monday is pretty slim, but I am sure it's happened to someone, somewhere. Pedos do tend to be opportunistic.

But just looking at the facts above, I think probability alone suggests Dylan's dad knows exactly where Dylan is.

 

[katydid23]

I've been reading along, not willing to really speculate. But looking at facts:

- Dylan's mother was awarded sole custody. And there was a reason for that.

- Dylan didn't see his dad for 2 months after that.

- The visit Dylan was making was court-ordered.

- The last anyone outside of Dylan's father heard from him was Sunday night.

- Dylan wanted to visit friends, not hang out with a dad he hadn't seen in months.

I am speculating that there was pretty good reason for a man to feel hard done by, right there.

And I am also speculating that a man nursing anger for several months, toward Dylan's mother and/or his kids who were all but estranged, could snap and hurt his son. And then lie about it.

Pedos who snatch kids from houses generally watch the house for a time, get secure in their opportunities to dive in and take their victim. Dylan hadn't seen his father for months. To me, it's a bit much of a stretch to speculate that a pedo happened by in the early hours of Monday and saw RM leave, and somehow also knew there was a boy alone in the house with no other adults present.

So IMO, a random house-snatching is pretty much off the cards.

And I am speculating that a text-proficient boy up early to go see his pals and planning on going alone would have texted them before he left or shortly after.

The chances of a random pedo happening to cruise past a boy from a troubled family who was left in the house alone, excited to see his friends, and who just happened that morning not to indulge his habit of texting his friends about everything, all coinciding at 7am-11am on Monday is pretty slim, but I am sure it's happened to someone, somewhere. Pedos do tend to be opportunistic.

But just looking at the facts above, I think probability alone suggests Dylan's dad knows exactly where Dylan is.

I agree, especially with the BBM. That is why the other possibility, besides MR, could be a family friend or coworker or neighbor. But in that case, I think LE would know of them already. So that scenario too, seems improbable. JMO

 

[nikb]

There is a Redbox kiosk inside of the Durango Walmart, but Adventureland is not offered

http://www.redbox.com/movies/kiosk/16282

Thanks Lordeebee for checking this out and also whether it was for sale in Walmart. Out of curiosity I did check the Redbox kiosks I usually use (my one delay in hurrying back from grocery shopping), and it wasn't in those either. I'm really doubting that they carry that movie, or if so I bet it's very limited.

 

[princessk]

Thanks Lordeebee for checking this out and also whether it was for sale in Walmart. Out of curiosity I did check the Redbox kiosks I usually use (my one delay in hurrying back from grocery shopping), and it wasn't in those either. I'm really doubting that they carry that movie, or if so I bet it's very limited.

Adventureland has been on regular cable quite a bit the last few months.

 

[Kamille]

I've been reading along, not willing to really speculate. But looking at facts:

- Dylan's mother was awarded sole custody. And there was a reason for that.

- Dylan didn't see his dad for 2 months after that.

- The visit Dylan was making was court-ordered.

- The last anyone outside of Dylan's father heard from him was Sunday night.

- Dylan wanted to visit friends, not hang out with a dad he hadn't seen in months.

I am speculating that there was pretty good reason for a man to feel hard done by, right there.

And I am also speculating that a man nursing anger for several months, toward Dylan's mother and/or his kids who were all but estranged, could snap and hurt his son. And then lie about it.

Pedos who snatch kids from houses generally watch the house for a time, get secure in their opportunities to dive in and take their victim. Dylan hadn't seen his father for months. To me, it's a bit much of a stretch to speculate that a pedo happened by in the early hours of Monday and saw RM leave, and somehow also knew there was a boy alone in the house with no other adults present.

So IMO, a random house-snatching is pretty much off the cards.

And I am speculating that a text-proficient boy up early to go see his pals and planning on going alone would have texted them before he left or shortly after.

The chances of a random pedo happening to cruise past a boy from a troubled family who was left in the house alone, excited to see his friends, and who just happened that morning not to indulge his habit of texting his friends about everything, all coinciding at 7.30am-11.30am on a Monday is pretty slim, but I am sure it's happened to someone, somewhere. Pedos do tend to be opportunistic.

But just looking at the facts above, I think probability alone suggests Dylan's dad knows exactly where Dylan is.

Just to clarify a bit as to the events leading up to the thanksgiving visit I believe it has been determined that ER moved or at least began the process of moving in July 2012. At that time there was still a joint custody agreement in place but I believe MR wasn't spending much time with Dylan in the three years prior due to his job taking him out of town. I would assume that ER applied for sole custody to coincide with her eventual move once the house in Colorado Springs was ready. After that MR planned a road trip with Dylan for a couple of weeks or so in August. Then he had Dylan visiting with him on Labor Day in September. The custody hearing was in November where ER was awarded sole custody but MR was also awarded visitation with Thanksgiving week being the first court ordered visit.

So I think that MR started ramping up his visitation availability and was requesting to see Dylan more often after ER made plans to move Dylan away from the Bayfield area and apply for sole custody. I've heard nothing about why he didn't take his other son on that "trip of a lifetime" in August or whether he was even invited.

MOO

 

[Lordeebee]

Adventureland has been on regular cable quite a bit the last few months.

Apologies in advance if this is redundant....but, is cable even available in such a remote location? Nik, do you know?
Perhaps MR has satellite?

 

[Kamille]

Adventureland has been on regular cable quite a bit the last few months.

I'm going to guess that it's either a movie MR owns or it was on tv and he'd seen it sometime in the three years since it came out.

MOO

 

[eileenhawkeye]

Regular cable...so like AMC, ABC Family, TNT...?