CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #48

[Eileen730]

I think there is a reason that these tests can not be compelled. And a reason that they are often excluded from trial. The primary reason being that they are not 100% accurate. At least the polygraph tests have some regulation and VSA has none. Unless I'm mistaken, it's been called a pseudo-science. I think George Zimmerman took a voice stress test and passed it.

I am not condemning their use, I just don't think either are the alpha or omega of an investigation.

<modsnip>

You pass or you fail and if your innocent and fail i would think you would want another try at it

 

[Seajay]

What if the best divers, sonar, ROV's don't find anything. Anything at all? I guess as much as we'd all like confirmation or elimination, I have to think that it may not happen either way. And we'll be here discussing what that means. :sad:

If they don't find anything, we at least have the answer that he's not in the lake. It eliminate that place as a possible sight. What we do with that information as individuals will vary, I'm sure but right now, none of us know for sure if he's there or not. If they don't find him there, some of us can move on to other ideas of locations, while those who will not believe he's not there will still be focused on the lake. I'd like to know one way or the other if the lake will be eliminated. FWIW.

 

[Seajay]

That makes no sense. Polygraphs serve a purpose, and that is to guide the course of an investigation.

As an investigative tool, like a fingerprint kit or luminol or an informant. It can guide or lead, but in most cases the poly will be get a conviction for someone. The problem is there are too many factors that can affect the outcome. It might lead towards a certain direction, but it can't eliminate or substantiate it to the point of conviction alone. IMO

 

[Seajay]

I took that to mean with others. Their interactions with others in the community, not with each other. IMO

 

[Tulessa]

Still praying for this baby................

 

[Salem]

One way or the other, with the Spring thaw, we will get answers concerning the lake. Either to confirm or eliminate. IMO.

But do you think it will eliminate the suspicion that Dylan is there? With 5 dogs hitting on that lake, I really, really hope that they find something that can answer the question as to why the dogs hit there. I'm hoping it is not Dylan, because I want him to be alive and well. But I am also hoping the divers can answer the question of the hits, because otherwise there will always be that suspicion that Dylan is there, unless or until he is found, kwim?

Salem

 

[Bayou Mistress]

Investigators obviously have suspicions about MR IMO based on the last new release in the media thread:



http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=191821&page=5

If he did take a 2nd poly, I think there would be yes or no questions related to Dylan's current location which maybe helpful instead of "did you have anything to do with...". I think that ship has sailed for LE. Apparently MR is not having anything to do with a 2nd poly that we are aware of.

I think that may be a matter of interpretation. If MR is innocent of wrong-doing the interactions are still of interest. As well as their interactions with anyone else. So, no, it's not obvious, although it's possible that you are correct.

 

[Confusion]

But do you think it will eliminate the suspicion that Dylan is there? With 5 dogs hitting on that lake, I really, really hope that they find something that can answer the question as to why the dogs hit there. I'm hoping it is not Dylan, because I want him to be alive and well. But I am also hoping the divers can answer the question of the hits, because otherwise there will always be that suspicion that Dylan is there, unless or until he is found, kwim?

Salem

If the diving team and the equipment are as good as they're saying, I think there's a fairly good chance that whoever/whatever the dogs have been alerting to will be found. If it isn't Dylan, we can still hope for that possibility. MOO

 

[ColdHands]

I think that may be a matter of interpretation. If MR is innocent of wrong-doing the interactions are still of interest. As well as their interactions with anyone else. So, no, it's not obvious, although it's possible that you are correct.

I believe they are trying to confirm the timeline. The events for Sunday have been confirmed up to the arrival at the house and Dylan's last electronic communication. Then there is this really big gaping hole in their confirmed timeline until MR reappears in public on Monday.

IMO, LE does not have electronic records to fill the gaps in the timeline - no landline/wireless communication, no phone pings or usage, nothing that was used or accessed between the time Dylan stopped communicating and when MR appears in public Monday morning. Without electronic evidence, their next best tool is eyewitnesses.

If the eyewitnesses saw MR interacting in a negative way with Dylan, that would be interesting but I don't think MR killed his son in front of witnesses or we'd certainly have heard that by now. I believe it would be most important to LE to have that timeline fully confirmed. And I think that's what the press release was saying when it talked about investigating MR and Dylan's interactions in the community.

IMO

 

[ColdHands]

But do you think it will eliminate the suspicion that Dylan is there? With 5 dogs hitting on that lake, I really, really hope that they find something that can answer the question as to why the dogs hit there. I'm hoping it is not Dylan, because I want him to be alive and well. But I am also hoping the divers can answer the question of the hits, because otherwise there will always be that suspicion that Dylan is there, unless or until he is found, kwim?

Salem

I'm worried that they will not find a body but only find something that turns into a distraction, such as a dead animal, and then no one will know for sure if Dylan is down there or not.

 

[Seajay]

But do you think it will eliminate the suspicion that Dylan is there? With 5 dogs hitting on that lake, I really, really hope that they find something that can answer the question as to why the dogs hit there. I'm hoping it is not Dylan, because I want him to be alive and well. But I am also hoping the divers can answer the question of the hits, because otherwise there will always be that suspicion that Dylan is there, unless or until he is found, kwim?

Salem

Absolutely I know what you mean. I'd like something definitive, that maybe they find that elk or whatever that LE said was there maybe. I'm with you, I am truly hoping it's not Dylan there. If they can find the cause of the dog hits, that would give us some answers to look elsewhere and move forward.

 

[ColdHands]

Absolutely I know what you mean. I'd like something definitive, that maybe they find that elk or whatever that LE said was there maybe. I'm with you, I am truly hoping it's not Dylan there. If they can find the cause of the dog hits, that would give us some answers to look elsewhere and move forward.

If all they find is a dead animal, will that eliminate the lake?

 

[Seajay]

If all they find is a dead animal, will that eliminate the lake?

More than anything, I just don't want them to find Dylan in the lake. I want Dylan to be alive and well somewhere. Not dead in that lake.

 

[katydid23]

None of us want him to be dead in the lake. But at the same time, IF he is deceased, I really want him to be brought home so he can be laid to rest with his family and bring some needed closure to his loved ones. :heartbeat: :rose: :star:

 

[Confusion]

None of us want him to be dead in the lake. But at the same time, IF he is deceased, I really want him to be brought home so he can be laid to rest with his family and bring some needed closure to his loved ones. :heartbeat: :rose: :star:

I have to agree that if he is in the lake, I hope they find him. Until that point, those who choose to can still hang onto the hope that he is still alive and well. MOO

 

[Lordeebee]

Dr. Phil:
But listen&#8230; here&#8217;s what I want to say to you. I don&#8217;t know what happened here. If you have your son stashed somewhere, or if God forbid&#8230;you flew into a rage&#8230; and you hurt him accidentally and he&#8217;s dead, if something has happened, I will help you deal with it now, and we will go recover that young man, because if you are involved,

(Note: Mark closes his eyes - moves his hand to his neck/collar area and scratches)

Dr. Phil:
&#8230;it&#8217;s just a matter of time. I&#8217;m telling you now, I&#8217;ll help you with it today&#8230;but my offer has a shelf life &#8230;

MR:
I understand.

Dr. Phil:
&#8230; it&#8217;s right now.

MR:
I&#8217;m not afraid of the truth (shakes head right to left)

__________________________

MR:
I&#8217;m not a violent person. Anybody that knows me will tell you the same thing.

Dr. Phil:
I hope you&#8217;re telling me the truth.

MR:
I got nothing to hide. (Shakes head left to right while speaking) I&#8217;m not afraid of the truth. I&#8217;m not afraid of the truth.

In the first instance, DP is offering to help MR if he has done anything to harm Dylan,
and he replies with "I'm not afraid of the truth"

In the second instance, they are discussing whether MR is a violent person (again in reference to harming Dylan), and MR replies with "I'm not afraid of the truth" X 2.

I don't get it. If he's innocent, why not just answer with (first instance) "I haven't done anything so there's nothing you can help me with", and (second instance) "I am not a violent man and I did not harm my son."

What does I'm not afraid of the truth mean? What truth is he referring to? If he is telling the truth, why would he say he's not afraid of the truth? Of course you're not afraid of the truth if you're telling the truth!

 

[Redhead72]

Going on memory here. I believe one adds 24 hours for every 2 degrees below 50 degrees. IIRC the water temperature was at 38.

This I believe would match the approximate time the helicopters first flew over. Need to look at this time frame again.

http://www.dundee.ac.uk/forensicmedi...otes/water.pdf
Department of Forensic Medicine, University of Dundee
Lecture Notes
Bodies from Water
(There is a link under the title on the first page that will bring you to the section header "Effects of Immersion" so that you don't have to scroll to the last portion.)

EFFECTS OF IMMERSION
Sinking, putrefaction and refloating

A body in water will usually sink but because the specific gravity of a body is
very close to that of water then small variations e.g. air trapped in clothing have a considerable effect on buoyancy. Having sunk to the bottom the body will remain there until putrefactive gas formation decreases the specific gravity of the body and creates sufficient buoyancy to allow it to rise to the surface and float. Heavy clothing and weights attached to the body may delay but will not usually prevent the body rising. Putrefaction proceeds at a slower rate in water than in air, in sea water than in fresh water and in running water than in stagnant water.

The principal determinant is the temperature of the water so that in deep very cold water e.g. the North American Great Lakes or the ocean the body may never resurface.

For the Thames, Simpson offers the following guidelines for resurfacing times:
June to August: 2 days; April, May, September and October: 3-5 days;
November, December: 10-14 days; January, February; possibly no resurfacing.
At water temperatures persistently below 45°F there may be no appreciable
decomposition after several weeks.

Please read more at the above link.

BBM

ETA: I posted this information on one of the threads for DR a while back, although I cannot find the post in looking through my history. If I find the post I specifically wrote in regard to DR's case, I will add the link here... [Update: I did an advanced search, and I have numerous posts discussing the effect of the cold water temperatures on decomposition in the last 3 threads regarding this case. One with a link to the page I submitted above. I will not link to them all, but they will show up under a search for "decomposition", along with my user name, and then searching the threads themselves for those same values.

ETA II:
Please note that the current estimated average water temperature in Lake Vallecito is 37 degrees as reported on this website:
http://www.fishingnotes.com/lakeinfo.php?id=3115

Current Temperature:
36°

Est Water Temperature:
37°

Barometric Pressure:
30.02 (High)

Wind Speed:
North at 00 Knots (0 MPH

This page includes a trending chart for the last week. I have not been able to find a long-term water temp. chart as of yet.
http://www.fishingnotes.com/laketrends.php?id=3115&v=3

I found a website that does keep historical records in regard to the water temperature, but it requires a premium subscription: http://www.fishexplorer.com/co/lakedet.asp?lid=2143

ETA III: To tie into the information posted from the forensics page, I researched the average depth of the Great Lakes. I was surprised to find that with the exception of Lake Superior the average depths of the water are less than 300 ft. Of course, the maximum depths recorded are much deeper. Keep in mind that at its deepest part, near the dam, Vallecito Reservoir is approximately 270-280 feet (iirc).
The following is from:
http://www.epa.gov/greatlakes/factsheet.html
Average Water Depth (in feet):
Superior: 483
Michigan: 279
Huron: 195
Erie: 62
Ontario: 283

 

[Redhead72]

If all they find is a dead animal, will that eliminate the lake?

IMO, no, definitely not. HRD dogs are not trained to hit on a decomposing animal of any sort at all. HRD dogs are trained to specifically hit upon human remains which are very distinctive in smell. There is no way in the world that 5 HRD dogs all hit in the same area, and all mistook a dead animal, for a human being. I would think the odds of that would be so infinitesimally small as to be not even worth pondering.

Someone is in that lake. It's a matter now of finding the body, and figuring out who it is. I pray that if it is DR (or someone else!), that the cold water will have slowed the process enough that there will be evidence left to indicate definitively a cause of death. There is a good chance that it could considering the depth and the temperatures - if only someone is able to dive down far enough to find the body... If they can recover the remains, then someone's family can finally have closure of some sort, and begin to heal. The not knowing has got to be the worst part of any situation like this...

PS - I still hold out hope for DR, regardless of what I realistically think happened. I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong in my opinions and suspicions. I pray everyday that God will give us answers, that he will bring Dylan home safe to his family, that Dylan is somewhere safe and well. I also pray that whomever had anything to do with his disappearance will be outed by the truth. Truth always finds a way...

 

[SCHMAE]

More than anything, I just don't want them to find Dylan in the lake. I want Dylan to be alive and well somewhere. Not dead in that lake.

I don't know if the lake can be eliminated even after the thaw just because of it's size and depth. I would always wonder no matter what because that lake is HUGE so I would think lots of things could go in that never come out
I hope he isn't there.

 

[TxLady2]

I am not Ghostwheel, but it does not necessarily mean that LE is lying. The K9's could very well of had accurate alerts. Just maybe LE knows why they alerted.

I think back as well to the Sierra Lamar case, and LE stated that they tracked her scent to the end of the driveway. Once there was an arrest, we found that yes she was tracked to the end of the driveway, and then tracked half way down the block.

Kinda like partial disclosure.

I don't think LE necessarily lies to the media or the public, but they do withhold certain information when it's in their best interests, or when it involves protecting the public and the media's personal safety. Sometimes they do try to minimize the importance of something, but I can only assume they have their reasons for that. As for the K9 alerts, they didn't know those dogs or the handlers, so they couldn't verify whether the alerts had any significance to this case or not.
That's the way I see it anyway.