CO - Dylan Redwine missing from Vallecito ***SEARCH DISCUSSION ONLY***

[Emma Ems]

The dogs that do old remains, are trained for just that. Dogs that haven't been trained for stuff that old would likely not have a clue, especially given water aspects.

Can I ask you this, if you don't mind. On different sites for different trainers, some say they train with human bones, and there was a study done that I recently read about where some dogs were taken from the LE dog training academy(I would assume the dogs were not HHRD dogs if the were LE dogs) it was I believe 4 dogs, I am a bit tired so my recall may not be exact on the number of dogs they tested. Anyways the point was to try to test the limits of the dogs during various stages of decomp, and the skeleton remains used were 25+ years(I haven't seen another study like this) and the dogs were able to find the bone fragments that were buried. So if a handler is training their dog on bone remains, is it possible they would be hitting on old bone remains.

There were a few suggestions made as to why they were hitting seemingly all over the place one was that maybe there were multiple bodies, or possibly a body that's in pieces. Now my brain is working further. If there were a ten year old body in the lake, it would probably be a skeleton by now possibly, and it could be in pieces maybe from water predators, so would they hit on that?

There a few handlers who only classify their dogs as being HRD dogs(not HHRD dogs) that say their dogs hit on old remains and some that say they train their dogs only on fresh remains and others that train on fresh and older remains and I think that could be why the lines are so blurry here. My thoughts were simply this, if the dogs that are out there are trained on bones-in addition to fresh remains-and if there was some type of mass grave, I only used Indian burial as one possibility but there were miners in the area too, then wouldn't that make the smell stronger, especially if it was buried, then maybe some natural disaster like a mudslide occurred and further buried then, then they dug up the lake, sifted all the stuff around, etc....

I am really trying to be optimistic that the reason the dogs haven't found the source and are hitting all over the place is because of someone that may have died of natural causes and wasn't a victim of some kind.

 

[sarx]

Again I think what they were and possibly weren't trained on may be coming into play here. I think LE has really done their due diligence here and I get the feeling they are a capable group. I think it might just be possible that everyone thinks he is in that lake and it is rubbing off. That or it is the dumping ground for all of Colorado...

 

[sarx]

Yep. Not all train on bones. Not all train on real scent. It is actually illegal to do so in some states. Very few train on historic remains. Water makes for a whole different component and requires specialized training in order to be reliable. There are just so many variables. what is hard to explain here is why the divers and sonar have come up with nothing in all of these places.

 

[The Cheese]

I was unclear the other day on whether the reporter meant LE or Elaine and her group were focusing searches on where Dylan may have walked to, but this clarifies that it was LE.

There are several roads around there, and officials said they wanted to focus on somewhere Redwine may have been able to walk.

Sounds like the searchers may have ruled out an area, but I don't know if this is referring to the mid-east or both the mid-east and south (entire bottom half of the lake, which seems to be what they sonar scanned).

She said it allows searchers to rule out that part of the lake as a location for future searches.

This clarifies that it was 12 feet from the shore into the water, rather than 12 feet from the water line onto the shore as I thought earlier.

The scent the dog picked up was found approximately 12 feet from the eastern shore of the reservoir.

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2013/04/25/redwine-search-intensifies-at-vallecito-reservoir/

 

[*Lash*]

Hi Cheese!

Here is a very similar map I found awhile ago. It has a little more detail.




http://www.seeourlake.com/2012Brochure.pdf

 

[IHAVENOCLUE]

Thanks for all your hard work in this thread, y'all!

:seeya:

 

[The Cheese]

FMDR facebook post that lists the impressive credentials of the dog from Illinois who Elaine brought out for this most recent search. I haven't seen a linkable source to the name of the handler and dog.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...555396767820264.144727.555378941155380&type=1

Another FMDR post that gives the name of the husband and wife sonar/boat/ROV team Elaine brought out.

https://www.facebook.com/FindMissingDylanRedwine/posts/637916552901618

 

[The Cheese]

I've been mulling this over. First, I need to preface what I'm going to say with this information on what areas of the lake the searchers worked on this week:

Sunday the team was able to get on the water fairly early and spent a large portion of the day scanning near the dam. Hess said the scan picked up something odd on top of the grate that covers the drain for the power plant.

Also on Sunday, law enforcement brought a helicopter from San Juan County, N.M. that flew low over the lake for about an hour. Right now the lake water is low and clear, Hess said. They didn’t spot anything.

Monday after reviewing the photos of the scans from Sunday, Hess said it was decided that the sonar team would put the ROV (remotely operated vehicle) in the water to see what was on the grate. The ROV equipped with a video camera was launched in the southwest corner of the dam and descended nearly 60 feet to the drain where it discovered large logs, sticks and rocks atop the grate.

The team spent the remainder of the day on the mid eastern portion of the lake that the dogs had highly indicated on, Hess said.

On Tuesday after checking the shoreline where the dogs had indicated “hard hits,” law enforcement representatives decided to excavate a portion of the shoreline to make sure something wasn’t buried.

They began building the coffer dam and the sonar team did additional scans on the water from east to west in that area of the lake before high winds once again drove them back to the marina.

http://www.pinerivertimes.com/news.asp?artid=1162


So, looking above at this week's search effort, specifically the areas it entailed, it looks like, according to Elaine, the searchers have ruled out the south and mid-east areas of the lake, and they won't be searching them again.

This week’s search effort had to be done quickly because even though the ice on the lake has melted, the waters are starting to rise.

Elaine Redwine, Dylan’s mother, told CBS4 by phone that she considers the effort a success despite the fact that nothing conclusive was found.

She said it allows searchers to rule out that part of the lake as a location for future searches.

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2013/04/25/redwine-search-intensifies-at-vallecito-reservoir/

I don't recall hits in what I'm thinking of as the northern "half" of the lake. Based on that, I'm just going to wait to hear from LE if or when they have any concern there's a body in or around the dam.

All just my opinion. :twocents:

 

[The Cheese]

Gene Ralston, a member of the team that did the search, said he is '95 percent sure ' that there was no body in the two areas they searched.

'There's always a chance that he is there and that we missed him, ' Ralston said.

The areas searched were along the dam and outlet and near a stump where human remains were detected by dogs.

The lake, he said, was not particularly difficult to search.

'The bottom is really clean, except for the occasional stump and woody debris. For the most part, it is very clean, ' Ralston said.

Ralston said the team is not expecting to return unless new clues indicate other areas of the lake in which a body might be found.

But he urged the local group not to give up.

'Obviously they need to keep searching, ' he said. 'I think everything points to him not being alive anymore and his body being somewhere. My guess is he's probably on land.

http://gazette.com/lake-search-yields-no-clues-to-missing-monument-boy/article/1500114

 

[Ransom]

Thanks Cheese. I so appreciate your hard work here. :highfive:

 

[Ghostwheel]

So, if they only checked those two areas, could a body be in another area and the scent is washing to the areas they checked? There's a lot of lake that has not been checked, and I also wonder if a body that might have been in an alert area, washed farther in after all this time.

 

[Salem]

I wonder if the body was taken to the shore and set down for a length of time and then it was decided that maybe that wasn't the best place, so the body was picked up and transported elsewhere.

If the person was walking - maybe it is worth looking at trails that lead off from the spot where the dogs hit along the shoreline?

Some good USGS maps of the area would be nice, but... Google will work, I think?

Salem

 

[The Cheese]

Dec 6th 2012

In 49 years, Lemon Reservoir has had less water in only five years; Vallecito Reservoir has recorded a lower water level in only 14 of 72 years; McPhee Reservoir has had only four years with less water in 29 years; and Navajo Reservoir, in 51 years, has had less water in only eight years.

snipped

Ryan Christianson, group chief of the Southern Water Management Group of the Bureau of Reclamation in Durango, said Vallecito Reservoir is 30 percent full; Lemon is 19 percent full; McPhee, 51 percent; Navajo, 57 percent; and Lake Nighthorse, 94 percent.

http://www.durangoherald.com/articl...7/0/news01/Nov’s-Animas-flow-lowest-on-record

 

[The Cheese]

March 21, 2013

Storage levels are down in all of the area’s reservoirs, according to officials from the Bureau of Reclamation. Lemon had 13,962 acre feet of storage in 2012 and now sits at 7,829 acre feet. McPhee was at 287,844 a year ago; the current storage is 188,976 acre feet. And, Vallecito is less than two-thirds what it was last year.

http://www.durangotelegraph.com/index.cfm/archives/2013/march-21-2013/news/water-world/

 

[Ghostwheel]

Jennie Pierce, Commander, New Mexico State Police Dive Team
transcribed from video

We feel pretty confident that we've covered the area that we've been asked to cover by physically diving it and by using the side-scan sonar

http://www.9news.com/video/default.aspx?bctid=1990769785001

BBM: This is why I am not convinced the reservoir is completely ruled out. They have only been asked to cover a certain amount of the reservoir. The recent search was similar. Maybe it costs an awful lot to house and feed the searchers, but why didn't they just search the whole reservoir with sonar? Then, there would be that slight chance you missed something, but now, there is 90% of it that has not been searched. I don't care how "clear" the water is, sonar is better than a helicopter. A helicopter won't easily see an odd bump where something could be buried under the silt, where sonar will.

I sometimes feel like I've seen better searches in a box of Cracker Jacks...

 

[AnotherSetOfEyes]

BBM: This is why I am not convinced the reservoir is completely ruled out. They have only been asked to cover a certain amount of the reservoir. The recent search was similar. Maybe it costs an awful lot to house and feed the searchers, but why didn't they just search the whole reservoir with sonar? Then, there would be that slight chance you missed something, but now, there is 90% of it that has not been searched. I don't care how "clear" the water is, sonar is better than a helicopter. A helicopter won't easily see an odd bump where something could be buried under the silt, where sonar will.

I sometimes feel like I've seen better searches in a box of Cracker Jacks...

BBM. ITA. I would like to see them search around the marina, since MR mentioned it several times. Also wish there was some kind of diagram to see how currents flow in the reservoir.

 

[rebeccaeee]

BBM. ITA. I would like to see them search around the marina, since MR mentioned it several times. Also wish there was some kind of diagram to see how currents flow in the reservoir.

I've been looking for current maps everywhere. With all the interest in fishing in that lake, you'd think these would be easy to find but nope, not for me. Would love to see them too. Also thinking since Oriah's post on the other thread re: buried in mud at the bottom of the lake that this might be possible and makes the need for more lake searches.

 

[The Cheese]

BBM: This is why I am not convinced the reservoir is completely ruled out. They have only been asked to cover a certain amount of the reservoir. The recent search was similar. Maybe it costs an awful lot to house and feed the searchers, but why didn't they just search the whole reservoir with sonar? Then, there would be that slight chance you missed something, but now, there is 90% of it that has not been searched. I don't care how "clear" the water is, sonar is better than a helicopter. A helicopter won't easily see an odd bump where something could be buried under the silt, where sonar will.

I sometimes feel like I've seen better searches in a box of Cracker Jacks...

From what I understand from the articles, they have the HRD dogs go out on the water to see if and where they get a hit, then they use the sonar on that area, and the surrounding area.

e.g. in November, the state police team searched an area 20 times the size of the area the dogs hit. Another example, Elaine's sonar guy said he'd only be back if the dogs got hits elsewhere on the lake.

IMO dogs have searched the whole lake, and all areas they alerted have been "sonared" and searched.

IMO about 50% of the lake has been "sonared", and there was no reason to "sonar" the rest of it, because nobody has gotten any dog hits there.

:cow:

 

[Ghostwheel]

From what I understand from the articles, they have the HRD dogs go out on the water to see if and where they get a hit, then they use the sonar on that area, and the surrounding area.

e.g. in November, the state police team searched an area 20 times the size of the area the dogs hit. Another example, Elaine's sonar guy said he'd only be back if the dogs got hits elsewhere on the lake.

IMO dogs have searched the whole lake, and all areas they alerted have been "sonared" and searched.

IMO about 50% of the lake has been "sonared", and there was no reason to "sonar" the rest of it, because nobody has gotten any dog hits there.

:cow:

I respect your opinion. I don't happen to agree with it, though, for the following reasons:
If the dogs "hit" on something in the lake, and nothing was found, then the dogs "hits" are wrong. If the dogs are wrong about the "hits", then they could be wrong about non-"hits". (It can't be both ways, either the dogs are accurate or they aren't.) Ergo, if they are wrong about the "hits", and they could be wrong about the non-"hits", then the rest of the lake has not been completely checked.

If someone goes the other way and says the dogs "hits" are correct for something, somewhere in the lake, my thought about the rest of the lake not having been completely checked is still valid.

 

[SCHMAE]

WOW , never ever ever give up hope !

http://fox8.com/2013/05/06/breaking-amanda-berry-gina-dejesus-found-alive/