sk716
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RSBM - right?
This is the rabbit hole I went down for some weeks on the Pistorius case.
Because 99.99% of men who engage in DA/DV don't murder their wives, there is a belief that it isn't predictive, or even to normalise it, as just the usual stuff that goes on in a failed marriage. You'll even hear that a bad assault was out of character or the abuser "snapped".
However when you look at the much smaller data set where men did murder their wives you will frequently find these red flags - so they actually do provide clear warnings
Given it's so obvious BM murdered SM, we can (even pre trial) look back at the warning signs and it is clear multiple people, including SM were worried about her safety - it's just that they under appreciated the risks. But the stuff about restraining orders, admitted violence, threats of suicide, secret camera, concealed affair, decision to divorce - these are all obvious indicators that built to a weekend that the vulnerable, isolated victim did not survive.
Unfortunately the judge decided this wasn't probative enough.
I disagree on a policy basis because we end up saying that victims need to raise the alarm in a way that a male judge thinks is meaningful, rather in a way that survivors and their close supporters understand as significant and safe.
I guarantee after this case, there will be the usual media platitudes of "how did this happen" when witnesses were tipping the police off as to the domestic angle in the first hours live on video!
We're learning that men who commit acts of violence start with their significant others. So maybe 99% of them don't go on to murder their wives, but what percentage kills/commits violence against someone else?
In my experience, men who hit their wives are cowards. They are unlikely to confront another male without a physical advantage, but they are the type to have a lot of weapons.
MOO