Coronavirus - COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #24

[LaborDayRN]

Because of the testing issue that you are talking about I'm curious to know how it is known that this corona virus has such a high mortality rate vs the flu when we don't even know how many people are infected.

If it's true that there are many people that are infected that have very mild or no symptoms that could make it hard to get a true idea of how deadly this virus is right? JMO

The mortality rate has been calculated by the known, confirmed cases of Covid-19 and the number of those who have died from it. The death rate may be higher because there may have been many who died of the disease prior to it being identified by scientists.
South Korea performed a great many test so I feel like it's numbers are most likely good.

One chart shows how the coronavirus is more deadly than the flu even in South Korea, where the COVID-19 death rate is low

 

[gregjrichards]

I'm terribly worried about my husband. He takes an anti-inflammatory for his arthritis, has high blood pressure and asthma. We are a household of 4 and his is our only income. He's a machine mechanic and therefore can't work from home. We live in the country and no cases have been reported here, but he works near Atlanta. Thankfully he has gloves, masks, strong soap and sanitizer available at his workplace, but I know if he gets this it will be bad.

He is my hero, my best friend, the love of my whole life. I just pray we get to grow old (older) together.

I really hope you, your husband and family will be ok and will not get the virus.

 

[PingTheRouter]

‘Shut us down:’ Aussies rage at PMs coronavirus update

everyone is going nuts at our PM demanding to shut all schools to stop any corona virus, personally i think he will shut it just not yet i think it will be next week he'll do it

but a lot of people as noted in this article want it done now

 

[MyBelle]

That's true. It’s happening in my community as well and everywhere. However, when the US cases start mimicking whats happening in Europe, Iran and what happened in China, everything is going to halt. States will start to close “non-essential businesses” like they have in France and Italy.

I haven't seen U.S. cases mimicking what is happening in Europe or Asia. Could you cite some examples? Thanks!

 

[gitana1]

Seasonal flu has been around for so long that there are readily available average year figures that governments and health services can use to prepare, so that they know they will need an average of x number of beds in that season, and x amount of oxygen available for that season. Some seasons have higher than average numbers of cases and hospitals in some places do struggle.

With the flu vaccine, and so many higher risk groups having good uptake of the vaccine, and now also pneumonia vaccines, many hospitals have fewer beds than they used to need for an average flu season.

We don't yet know what the peak number will be for Covid-19, but even if it's the same as for the average flu season...if it were to coincide with the peak of flu season, then you'd need twice as many hospital beds, oxygen, ecmo units as normal....and in most places that isn't doable.

This isn't instead of the flu season, this is on top of it.

In the UK, non-emergency operations are often delayed during flu season, then they try to catch up when they get over flu season. This year, instead of being able to catch up outside flu season, they're going to be very concerned about having ICU beds open for Covid-19 pneumonia patients, so instead of using the summer to catch up on non-emergency operations, they might have to put off those operations again in order to treat Covid-19 patients.

And if the peak number of Covid-19 patients is higher than the average flu peak....they won't be able to cope, because they can barely cope now at peak of flu season. That's what Italy is seeing now.

Of course, there is a little bit of a heads up for us with Covid-19, unlike for Hubei. And we will have a few more weeks than Italy had to prepare. So our government is planning to bring healthcare staff out of retirement, or those who've left their healthcare jobs for other careers, they're going to be asked to come back to working in the hospitals for the duration of the outbreak, in the hope that that will help them have enough staff to care for the patients....and unlike flu, the doctors and nurses haven't had vaccinations for Covid-19, and they're going to be treating Covid-19 patients, including those who come in for other reasons, not diagnosed before they come in....and if an undiagnosed case comes in for an appendectomy, then the nursing staff won't be wearing the full hazmat-type protective suits and are at risk of coming down with Covid-19. Whereas if that patient had flu, the staff would have been vaccinated and it wouldn't be as much of a problem.

Hubei was able to bring in doctors and nurses from outside Hubei to help them cope with all the extra patients. I presume they also brought in other items like oxygen and ecmo from outside Hubei. If it takes off in another country in all the counties/provinces/states/major cities at one time....there's no less-affected 'outside' to bring those staff and items from.

Good post. And we all need to remember that the world works super hard to prevent the flu including work on a universal flu vaccine, a ton of education and measures to encourage vaccination because the flu is so deadly.

But because it is so widespread, it can’t be contained. This one can.

Further, the flu isn’t leaving high numbers with permanent disability. This one may.

 

[PinkPrincessPoop]

Are you going to self quarantine and if so for how long?

Here are guidelines if you are looking for ideas to help suppress the spread of COVID-19:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community-mitigation-strategy.pdf

 

[Lilibet]

I am new here so I don't want to say the wrong thing. I live in Northern California and we have had 1 positive that has since recovered and 1 new one tonight that is self isolating. I just don't know what to believe. Is this a real thing or is this a media driven panic of the month?

Welcome, by the way! I’m originally from the Bay Area and spent 13 years in rather isolated Humboldt county, where they surprisingly have had one confirmed case (a traveler). My county in southern Oregon has 2 confirmed cases, also travelers. I think we’d all like to think it’s a media driven panic, but personally I believe the scientists who are dealing with this, such as Dr Tony Fauci on Pence’s team. He is in the media constantly and is reasonable but comes with decades of experience in infectious diseases with NIH, serving 6 presidents. He’s the short older (79 years old!) man with the raspy voice. I trust him totally. Although he discourages “panic,” he is taking this very seriously and trying to communicate that to the public. And do keep in mind that the numbers so far are low because there has been very little testing. Hope this helps.

 

[Wyle_E_Coyote]

Because of the testing issue that you are talking about I'm curious to know how it is known that this corona virus has such a high mortality rate vs the flu when we don't even know how many people are infected.

If it's true that there are many people that are infected that have very mild or no symptoms that could make it hard to get a true idea of how deadly this virus is right? JMO

It doesn't matter how deadly it is, if so many people need hospitalization that our medical system is overwhelmed. People who would otherwise survive will die due to lack of medical care, ventilators, oxygen, etc.

 

[FlossyMay]

I just realized it's 3 am. I'm going to bed.

Thanks for your hugs and kind words. I love that there are so many kind and caring people here on WS.

God bless us all.

Goodnight.

 

[LaborDayRN]

I’m neither a prepper (for “the end”) nor a hoarder, but yes, we have prepared for years for disasters. We live in wildfire and earthquake country and our town is near an interstate highway and it flooded 20+ years ago, so we have “go-bags” in the house and the car, as well as supplies for “sheltering in place.” Every couple of years I go through everything to replace what is outdated and make sure the clothes in the go-bags still fit! We’ve never needed any of this...yet...but our town could easily go up in flames in a wildfire, so I feel better being prepared to flee.

I bet we live in the same state Lilibet!

 

[Wyle_E_Coyote]

I am new here so I don't want to say the wrong thing. I live in Northern California and we have had 1 positive that has since recovered and 1 new one tonight that is self isolating. I just don't know what to believe. Is this a real thing or is this a media driven panic of the month?

This is unfortunately very real, and likely to get worse.

 

[LaborDayRN]

Isn’t it! I’m trying to grasp on the positive. We all need to. And to take long breaks from the thread and the news to retain sanity.

Yes! I think we all need to step away from the thread AND the news for our mental health! Do something relaxing! Go outside in the sunshine for a bit, even if only in your own yard or porch. Even if there's snow on the ground where you live, getting out in the fresh air does a world of good.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

It doesn't matter how deadly it is, if so many people need hospitalization that our medical system is overwhelmed. People who would otherwise survive will die due to lack of medical care, ventilators, oxygen, etc.

Yes and that would make it extremely more deadly than the flu.

I'm not saying that this virus is no big deal.

I'm just not sure yet exactly how deadly it is.

 

[Squinchy]

Welcome, by the way! I’m originally from the Bay Area and spent 13 years in rather isolated Humboldt county, where they surprisingly have had one confirmed case (a traveler). My county in southern Oregon has 2 confirmed cases, also travelers. I think we’d all like to think it’s a media driven panic, but personally I believe the scientists who are dealing with this, such as Dr Tony Fauci on Pence’s team. He is in the media constantly and is reasonable but comes with decades of experience in infectious diseases with NIH, serving 6 presidents. He’s the short older (79 years old!) man with the raspy voice. I trust him totally. Although he discourages “panic,” he is taking this very seriously and trying to communicate that to the public. And do keep in mind that the numbers so far are low because there has been very little testing. Hope this helps.

Thank you for the welcome. I am in Humboldt county the northern part. And I do know who Dr Fauci is and totally trust him. I was just grasping at straws with the media panic. Sorry for getting off on the wrong foot.

 

[Sweetsbeach]

I am new here so I don't want to say the wrong thing. I live in Northern California and we have had 1 positive that has since recovered and 1 new one tonight that is self isolating. I just don't know what to believe. Is this a real thing or is this a media driven panic of the month?

Consider how much of a financial impact this is already having on the country. Theme parks, cruise lines, and large and small businesses across the country are shutting down. Huge money making holiday celebrations and sporting events have been cancelled. And Trump and Pelosi were on the same page. This is a real thing.

 

[Really?]

I am new here so I don't want to say the wrong thing. I live in Northern California and we have had 1 positive that has since recovered and 1 new one tonight that is self isolating. I just don't know what to believe. Is this a real thing or is this a media driven panic of the month?

I explain it like this......now these are just random numbers........just for demonstration purposes.

And all in my opinion

It’s 1 in 1000000000 people

....than it’s 1 in every 10000 people.......as it spreads its
1 in every 100...then 1 in 3

That’s how I see it and that is why I will now stay home prepped....(thankful I can)

 

[LaborDayRN]

I haven't seen U.S. cases mimicking what is happening in Europe or Asia. Could you cite some examples? Thanks!

Personally, I believe that once the testing of sick individuals actually starts being done on a regular basis (here in the US), our numbers will be very similar. Asia testing MANY people. And it's also important to remember that it takes time (weeks) from the time cases are identified in a country to the time there is widespread disease.

 

[Oddsocks]

‘Shut us down:’ Aussies rage at PMs coronavirus update

everyone is going nuts at our PM demanding to shut all schools to stop any corona virus, personally i think he will shut it just not yet i think it will be next week he'll do it

but a lot of people as noted in this article want it done now

And I agree with them. We’ve seen what happens when leaders are reactive instead of proactive.

 

[Lilibet]

I haven't seen U.S. cases mimicking what is happening in Europe or Asia. Could you cite some examples? Thanks!

Testing has barely started in the U.S. so you won’t see any mimicking unless testing gets widespread. But as it’s started to increase a little, the confirmed cases have definitely increased. IIRC there were barely 1000 last weekend and now about 3000, most of the increase in the past few days.

 

[LaborDayRN]

Coronavirus crisis as just 58 intensive care beds available in NHS Scotland

There are fears Scotland’s NHS could buckle under the pressure of a tsunami of critically-ill patients as hospitals struggle to cope.

Coronavirus crisis as just 58 intensive care beds available in NHS Scotland

This is terrifying and an absolute disgrace.