Flattening the curve, is the current approach to slow the COVID-19. Many immunologists have already said we're beyond containment, and that no matter what we do, 40 - 70% of us will get the virus. A vaccine will not be available. It is a matter of when we choose to get it. Flattening the curve will save some lives as the medical field will be better able to address needs.
How long will this shutdown last?
Weeks? No.
Month? Maybe.
Longer? Maybe.
Economic cost: trillion$. We will be in an economic recession shortly.
Coronavirus Is Hiding in Plain Sight
Scientists tracking the spread of the coronavirus reported on Monday that, for every confirmed case, there are most likely another five to 10 people in the community with undetected infections. These often-milder cases are, on average, about half as infectious as confirmed ones, but are responsible for nearly 80 percent of new cases, according to the report, which was based on data from China.
So with that many undetected and mild cases, and mostly uncounted, it is safe to say that the death rate for COVID-19 will be less than 1%. Much less IMO.
At some point really quickly, we're going to have to start thinking about the tradeoffs.
Along with the economic effect, there are health and societal risks with prolonged recessions. There is a huge and far reaching human cost.
Very difficult decisions have been made, but the cat is out of the bag. It ain't going back in. The more people learn about the actual deadliness of this virus to their own well-being, the more people will question the containment policies, IMO. "So, wait. I'm 35 and in good health, and COVID-19 affects me only as much as the flu does? And I'm out of work and can't pay my bills?" Refer to grocery stores if guidance is needed on human self-interest at the expense of others.
I'm not questioning the government's response, but in the next few weeks, keep an eye out for those that step out of line to go on the record and say "what are we doing here?"