Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #64

[jjenny]

Wanna know how they don't run out of capacity? They send home patients who are not dying. As long as there are enough health care workers to care for the sick in their homes, it will provide a relief to the hospitals and may have good outcomes for the patients.

Hospitals make room for coronavirus patients by trying to treat people at home

I think it's a fair guess some of these patients are going to die.

 

[jjenny]

Wanna know how they don't run out of capacity? They send home patients who are not dying. As long as there are enough health care workers to care for the sick in their homes, it will provide a relief to the hospitals and may have good outcomes for the patients.

Hospitals make room for coronavirus patients by trying to treat people at home

I think it's a fair guess some of these patients are going to die. I've read one too many story about covid patients being send home for monitoring and not making it.

 

[jjenny]

Neither does the low road either. People have to make their own mind up about most things, including smoking, drinking, going to protests, parties, etc.

Oh, so I can drink a whole bottle of vodka and then decide it's perfectly fine for me to go for a drive around the town? Is that how it works? Oh and I don't feel like wearing a seat belt. It should be up to me, right?
And then I might like to stop by a hospital nursery and smoke into babies faces? Wouldn't that be just fine, because it's up to me where I want to smoke?

 

[Betty P]

I think next week but not sure.

Agree. My son and DIL work in the entertainment industry, one for a large local live theater company. In recent years they started paying new hires as "contract workers" and when laid off for the summer months, didn't receive any unemployment. They're working to change that now, workers are demanding to be regular employees, not 1099. The CEO of the theater company earns close to $1 million a year, so they can afford it.

My son does the reverse, winter is his down time. He's begun making the same demands.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Part of the problem is everyone is reporting differently and changing how they report as they go. It's ridiculous and absolutely absurd this is going on during a pandemic.

As the days go on I'm having a harder and harder time believing anything anyone is saying.

jmo

The only one I'm willing to believe at the moment is my doctor. He's been my doctor for a long time and hasn't steered me wrong yet. The US could open completely tomorrow and I still wouldn't go to bars, restaurants, malls, gyms, movies, shopping, spas, beaches, schools or grocery stores.

Others may be given different advice by their doctors depending on age/co-morbidities and so on. Frankly, no one should be making decisions based on the advice of media, politicians or Facebook friends. Listen to your doctor.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Part of the problem is everyone is reporting differently and changing how they report as they go. It's ridiculous and absolutely absurd this is going on during a pandemic.

As the days go on I'm having a harder and harder time believing anything anyone is saying.

jmo

How hard is it to listen to experts and doctors?

 

[JerseyGirl]

I think it's a fair guess some of these patients are going to die.

Just like the nursing home patients in New York, Washington, ...

 

[JerseyGirl]

Someone has some sense:

President Trump's campaign has scrapped plans to hold a rally in Alabama next weekend amid concerns about coronavirus infections rising in the US.

Coronavirus live updates from around the world

Trump was slated to travel to the state ahead of the Senate race between his former attorney general Jeff Sessions and the former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, but plans were called off as state officials quietly voiced concerns about a mass gathering and campaign officials ultimately decided against it.

A person close to the campaign said there are currently no rallies on the horizon, but aides are scoping out possible venues for when they decide to host them again.

 

[10ofRods]

The expected uptick in deaths in the US is beginning to take shape.

It's barely noon on the East Coast and we're already up to the rate we were at at end of day (Worldometer) three days ago (about 245 deaths).

Two days ago, the rate climbed by around 20% overnight to 285. Yesterday, it climbed to 346. Let's hope it goes back down.

It's too soon to see the impact of the rise in cases, but it's possible that some of the dead are people who were tested quite recently (or are presumed to have died of CoVid while at home, particularly if they had tested positive and were supposed to be self-quarantined).

Sadly, it will likely be over 400 today with California, Massachusetts, Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania at the top of this unhappy list.

Before we all panic, those numbers merely send us back to the second week of June - and if we can plateau at this new level, that's still a kind of progress - although certainly the new case numbers mean that anyone who doesn't want to get CoVid must still do their best at self-protection.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

HUMOR (also posted in Smiles Cafe thread):

January 2020

CHINA: Sorry everyone, we messed up. Here's what you need to do.
USA: We're the greatest country in the world, it won't get us
UK: What America said ^^^ just keep calm and wash your hands
AUS/NZ: Batten the hatches
SPAIN: Manana, manana
ITALY: After the ski season
FRANCE: *shrugs*
USA: We found a cure already
UK: Man down, man down. Boris has left the building
CHINA: All sorted. U OK hun?
AUS/NZ: Cheers China
EUROPE: Maybe we should have listened
USA/UK: *finger in ears* la-la-laaa

Glad you liked it, but it is in fact a serious factual record of what actually happened

 

[Tippy Lynn]

The only one I'm willing to believe at the moment is my doctor. He's been my doctor for a long time and hasn't steered me wrong yet. The US could open completely tomorrow and I still wouldn't go to bars, restaurants, malls, gyms, movies, shopping, spas, beaches, schools or grocery stores.

Others may be given different advice by their doctors depending on age/co-morbidities and so on. Frankly, no one should be making decisions based on the advice of media, politicians or Facebook friends. Listen to your doctor.

Taking advice from the media, politicians or SM would be like taking advice from a pet rock.

 

[musicaljoke]

How hard is it to listen to experts and doctors?

It's hard when one's political leaders undermine the authority of the medical professionals, and even undermine the authority of the most highly esteemed health organisations.

 

[tresir2012]

So are Houston's ICU full or not? Was that fake news? I am just trying to follow what happened. It is looking like a knee jerk reaction ATM but Mooooo....

 

[JerseyGirl]

The death toll from Covid-19 could rise to 438,000 in South America by October if prevention measures are not kept up, the World Health Organisation has warned.

WHO regional director for the Americas, Carissa Etienne, said on Tuesday that mathematical model projections should not be taken literally but as planning guides.

Under current conditions, the pandemic is expected to peak in Chile and Colombia by mid-July, but not until August in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Peru and in October in Costa Rica.

Coronavirus live updates: Greece faces 'huge difficulties' when flights resume; Toronto makes masks mandatory

 

[Betty P]

Last month, the CDC estimated that the fatality rate for those with COVID-19 and showing symptoms to be in the range of 0.2% to 1% with a best estimate of 0.4%. The CDC also estimated that 20% to 50% of those with COVID-19 would be asymptomatic. That meant that in reality, the CDC was estimating an overall COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate in the range of 0.1% to 0.8%, with a “best estimate” of 0.26%.

The corresponding CDC best estimate of Infection Fatality Rate is 0.03% for those under 50 years old, 0.13% for those between 50 to 64 years old is, and 0.85% for those 65 and older. Of course, these estimates do not take into account comorbidities, and given the majority of US deaths have been skilled nursing home residents and other info about those who have died from COVID-19, we know that comorbidities have a major impact on the fatality rate.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

More recently, a Stanford University study based on data of seroprevalence studies, estimated COVID-19 Infection fatality rates in a range of 0.02% to 0.86% with a median of 0.26%). Among people under 70 years old, the estimated Infection Fatality Rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05%.
The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data


A similar study, but focused on Switzerland, estimated an Infection Fatality Rate in the range of just 0.00032% to 0.0016% for those younger than 50, 0.096% to 0.19% for those 50 to 64 years of age and 4.3% to 7.4% for those 65 years of age and older. As for the estimated IFR for those 65 years and older, the authors of this study cautioned that it was likely higher for individuals in assisted care facilities and lower for individuals not in assisted care facilities, but that they did not distinguish the two.
https://osf.io/wdbpe/

Deloitte in the Netherlands published an analysis of fatality rate estimates, including a study that estimated Infection Fatality Rate of 0.11% for Santa Clara California, and estimated that those under 50 with COVID-19 had less than a 0.1% chance of ICU admission and less than a 0.01% fatality rate. Deloitte estimated a 0.1% IFR for those aged 50 to 59, a 0.4% IFR for those aged 60 to 69, a 2.4% IFR for those aged 70 to 79, and a 6.2% IFR for those aged 80 and above.
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/d...oitte-nl-sots-covid-interventies-factbook.pdf

What most if not all of the IFR studies seem to dance around is the reality that more than half of COVID-19 deaths have been nursing home residents. Many other countries have had similar issues with nursing home deaths accounting for a substantial portion of overall COVID deaths, and in some cases a substantial majority.

The other reality that goes along with so many COVID-19 deaths being nursing home residents is that those residents already face a very high short-term mortality rate. For example: "According to the National Center for Assisted Living (NCAL) . . . the mortality rate within the first 12 months after individuals move into a skilled nursing facility is as much as 60 percent. The mortality rate is even higher in the first six months.”
Life Expectancy Compression | Home Care & Personal Service Agency | Care At Home | Homecare by Design | West Lafayette

People don’t like to talk about it, which is entirely understandable because it’s a very sensitive topic, but given what we know about the nursing home situation, and the very advanced age of most COVID-19 deaths in this country, it’s a fairly good possibility that a significant portion of Americans, would have died within the 3 to 6 months. It appears that about 55% of US COVID deaths have been nursing home residents, so if we conservatively assume only 50% of those individuals would have died within the next 3 to 6 months, thats still more than 25% of all US COVID deaths. It doesn't seem unreasonable to hypothesize that most of the nursing home residents who have died from COVID-19 those with more likely to have a high short-term mortality rate.

Age and co-morbidity play a role in the fatality rate, but there's no getting around the fact that COVID 19 is fatal for people of all ages, even healthy ones. Two people in my neighborhood recently died from it. Two different families, both middle aged moms with no serious health issues. I know at least one of them thought COVID 19 was a hoax. So, yeah, I'm still going to avoid getting it. Anything that coats your lungs, making it impossible to breathe and often requiring days or weeks on a ventilator is nothing to be casual about.

Yeah, one of the mom's sat at home suffering from breathing difficulties for several days. She died on the way to the hospital.

 

[Tippy Lynn]

How hard is it to listen to experts and doctors?

FWIW. I work with some of the best doctors and experts in the world. I have complete respect for them. Some of the others......not so much.

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

So here is the story in TX. Houston hospitals did report they were going to exceed capacity by July 6 in ICUs. Of course they got panicked calls, and then they changed the way they report their ICU capacity. But did the capacity just magically increased? I believe they are just going to claim they still have the capacity by the supposed ability to change regular beds into ICU beds.
"The institutions — which together constitute the world’s largest medical complex — reported Thursday that their base intensive care capacity had hit 100 percent for the first time during the pandemic and was on pace to exceed an “unsustainable surge capacity” of intensive care beds by July 6."
Houston hospitals hit 100% base ICU capacity. Then they stopped reporting data.

Here’s a joint press release by Houston hospitals. I will take them at their word. I don’t think there’s a conspiracy by all of these hospitals to lie. They employee thousands of people, I doubt they could get away with a lie. IMO

Joint Statement from St. Luke’s Health, Houston Methodist, Memorial Hermann Health System & Texas Children’s Hospital Regarding Houston Hospital Capacity and Executive Order

 

[CharlestonGal]

Fauci says new US coronavirus cases could hit 100,000 a day in stark warning to Senate – live

Fauci: 'We are going in the wrong direction ... it could get really bad'
America’s leading public health expert Anthony Fauci has confirmed what the record figures are telling us – the US is sliding backwards on its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

“We are going in the wrong direction,” Fauci just told the Senate.

Last week the US saw a new daily record of 40,000 new coronavirus cases in one day.

Fauci just said, in testimony before committee, that he fears that the rate will rise dramatically.

“I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around.”

 

[Betty P]

I think it's a fair guess some of these patients are going to die.

And pass the disease along to other family members. I don't know how you could live in the same house with someone who is dying from COVID 19. That would be truly frightening, trying to help them and avoid getting it yourself.

 

[tresir2012]

CDC Says ‘Way Too Much Virus' in US to Control Pandemic as Cases Surge

How Coronavirus Has Grown in Each State — in 1 Chart

This chart shows the cumulative number of cases per state by number of days since the 10th case.


Source: Johns Hopkins University
Credit: Amy O’Kruk/NBC

"This is really the beginning," Schuchat said of the U.S.’s recent surge in new cases. "I think there was a lot of wishful thinking around the country that, hey it’s summer. Everything’s going to be fine. We’re over this and we are not even beginning to be over this. There are a lot of worrisome factors about the last week or so."

The sheer size of the U.S. and the fact that the virus is hitting different parts of the country at different times complicates the public response here compared with other countries, Schuchat said. South Korea, for example, was able to concentrate their response on the southern city of Daegu, for a time, and contact tracers were quickly deployed when new cases were later found in the capital Seoul.

"What we have in the United States, it’s hard to describe because it’s so many different outbreaks," Schuchat said. "There was a wave of incredible acceleration, intense interventions and control measures that have brought things down to a much lower level of circulation in the New York City, Connecticut, New Jersey area. But in much of the rest of the country, there’s still a lot of virus. And in lots of places, there’s more virus circulating than there was."

The coronavirus has proven to be the kind of virus that Schuchat and her colleagues always feared would emerge, she said. She added that it spreads easily, no one appears to have immunity to it and it’s in fact "stealthier than we were expecting."

"While you plan for it, you think about it, you have that human denial that it’s really going to happen on your watch, but it’s happening," she said. "As much as we’ve studied [the 1918 flu pandemic], I think what we’re experiencing as a global community is really bad and it’s similar to that 1918 transformational experience."

With the current level of spread, Schuchat said the U.S. public should "expect this virus to continue to circulate." She added that people can help to curb the spread of infection by practicing social distancing, wearing a mask and washing their hands, but no one should count on any kind of relief to stop the virus until there’s a vaccine.

"We can affect it, but in terms of the weather or the season helping us, I don’t think we can count on that," she said.

See link for the charts and more info.