Last month, the CDC estimated that the fatality rate for those with COVID-19
and showing symptoms to be in the
range of 0.2% to 1% with a best estimate of 0.4%. The CDC also estimated that 20% to 50% of those with COVID-19 would be asymptomatic. That meant that in reality, the CDC was estimating
an overall COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate in the range of 0.1% to 0.8%, with a “best estimate” of 0.26%.
The corresponding CDC best estimate of Infection Fatality Rate is
0.03% for those under 50 years old,
0.13% for those between 50 to 64 years old is, and
0.85% for those 65 and older. Of course, these estimates do not take into account comorbidities, and given the majority of US deaths have been skilled nursing home residents and other info about those who have died from COVID-19, we know that comorbidities have a major impact on the fatality rate.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
More recently, a Stanford University study based on data of seroprevalence studies, estimated COVID-19 Infection fatality rates in a range of
0.02% to 0.86% with a median of
0.26%).
Among people under 70 years old, the estimated Infection Fatality Rates ranged from
0.00% to 0.26% with median of
0.05%.
The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data
A similar study, but focused on Switzerland, estimated an Infection Fatality Rate in the range of just
0.00032% to 0.0016% for those younger than 50,
0.096% to 0.19% for those 50 to 64 years of age and
4.3% to 7.4% for those 65 years of age and older. As for the estimated IFR for those 65 years and older, the authors of this study cautioned that it was likely higher for individuals in assisted care facilities and lower for individuals not in assisted care facilities, but that they did not distinguish the two.
https://osf.io/wdbpe/
Deloitte in the Netherlands published an analysis of fatality rate estimates, including a study that estimated Infection Fatality Rate of
0.11% for Santa Clara California, and estimated that
those under 50 with COVID-19 had less than a 0.1% chance of ICU admission and less than a 0.01% fatality rate. Deloitte estimated a 0.1% IFR for those aged 50 to 59, a 0.4% IFR for those aged 60 to 69, a 2.4% IFR for those aged 70 to 79, and a 6.2% IFR for those aged 80 and above.
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/d...oitte-nl-sots-covid-interventies-factbook.pdf
What most if not all of the IFR studies seem to dance around is the reality that more than half of COVID-19 deaths have been nursing home residents. Many other countries have had similar issues with nursing home deaths accounting for a substantial portion of overall COVID deaths, and in some cases a substantial majority.
The other reality that goes along with so many COVID-19 deaths being nursing home residents is that those residents already face a very high short-term mortality rate. For example: "According to the National Center for Assisted Living (NCAL) . . .
the mortality rate within the first 12 months after individuals move into a skilled nursing facility is as much as 60 percent.
The mortality rate is even higher in the first six months.”
Life Expectancy Compression | Home Care & Personal Service Agency | Care At Home | Homecare by Design | West Lafayette
People don’t like to talk about it, which is entirely understandable because it’s a very sensitive topic, but given what we know about the nursing home situation, and the very advanced age of most COVID-19 deaths in this country, it’s a fairly good possibility that a significant portion of Americans, would have died within the 3 to 6 months. It appears that about 55% of US COVID deaths have been nursing home residents, so if we conservatively assume only 50% of those individuals would have died within the next 3 to 6 months, thats still more than 25% of all US COVID deaths. It doesn't seem unreasonable to hypothesize that most of the nursing home residents who have died from COVID-19 those with more likely to have a high short-term mortality rate.
jmo
