Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #77

[10ofRods]

5 months after I was ill (mild case in terms of how it would be described) and I spent two days last week suffering fatigue again. I thought it was behind me.

There's an article in the bbc today which unfortunately I cant link due to my ipad being glitchy, but it's an account from someone suffering terrible long term effects.

So much is as yet unknown, which is what worries me about the longterm situation.

I just wanted to chime in and say that I had a bout of fatigue this week - really bizarre, actually, and I do not have CoVid nor have I had it. I think there's just a general immune crash that comes with the stress of dealing with this pandemic or something like that. For me, going back to school probably triggered it (even though I never left my house). For all I know, it's related to some other virus I've had in the past.

The long haulers, as they are called, are real though. They are young and old, they have many symptoms in rotation (including fatigue). People have higher blood sugar readings after CoVid; some people have less well-regulated blood pressure; many many people have minor to moderate changes in the walls of their heart. Some still have visible lesions on their lungs - and no one knows if those go away. It's possible that this virus is something like herpes - there are systematic and longterm challenges to the immune system.

A lot of people seem eager to allow kids to get this virus, on the view that their childhood symptoms aren't so bad.

I think it's sad to see so many kids and teens getting CoVid now, with mild symptoms but no research on longterm effects. There are people who had rheumatic fever in a mild form and develop serious symptoms later. We just don't know and everything is being driven by economics and politics, not medical models.

We need to establish research protocols for the long haulers, but that takes funding. I mean something like the American Heart Association only for post-CoVid research. It's time. I'm mystified by the lack of dialogue about this, globally or locally - I think we are all still in the shock of the first wave.

The longterm effects on our healthcare systems are also a complete unknown.

 

[Shelby1]

I've been monitoring this site ever since someone posted it here. KS rt is out of control right now. A couple weeks ago it was down to 1.1 or something like that. Now we're at 1.11. 6th worse in the nation.

 

[tresir2012]

I've been monitoring this site ever since someone posted it here. KS rt is out of control right now. A couple weeks ago it was down to 1.1 or something like that. Now we're at 1.11. 6th worse in the nation.

That is not a big difference though. It could be just that the others have improved. I know Arizona went right down to the bottom of the list. Here's the link to KS graphs.

Kansas Rt

 

[MrX]

Arizona reports 1,091 new coronavirus cases, 65 additional deaths

Arizona Rt

I was really hoping that the heat was responsible for our turn-around, since I never believed it was all due to closing gyms. The uptick in Rt (now being reflected in cases) appears to have started in early August, when school season was starting and people returned from vacation. So the declines matched what always happens in the Phoenix area in June and July - the streets are empty. Now we have people getting back to town and their normal routines. By late September bars and gyms will again be scapegoated for something they had nothing to do with. Depressing...

 

[tresir2012]

Coronavirus: Portugal and parts of Greece added to Wales quarantine list but no change for travellers to England

Travellers from mainland Portugal and parts of Greece will have to isolate when arriving in Wales but not England.

The two nations made different decisions at the weekly point when their quarantine lists are normally updated.

So if Welsh tourists fly to and from from Greece via an English airport they won't have to isolate? And what about travellers from England flying out of Cardiff? Will they have to quarantine on return? It is all getting a little confusing.

ETA it was just clarified on BBC radio 2 news that even if Welsh travellers land in English airports they will still have to quarantine when returning to Wales.
??????

 

[mickey2942]

Oh goodness, could not understand what you meant by "systemic racism" i was like huh, was only posting a google image gif to show a canary in a coal mine, did not even read or notice the link with the off topic article, lesson learned!
Anyway, the canary in a coal mine image i posted, was intended to represent all the children in classrooms, and how if they fare well, it will bode well for everyone! imo.

Philip Elmer‑DeWitt

All good. I just read the article, and it was "on topic". No further discussion.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson, His Wife and Daughters, 4 and 2, Test Positive for COVID-19 — People

I do love his message to us all.............But why do these guys do this AFTER the fact that they were seriously ill. And could have been avoided in the first place---THAT is the message that people really need to hear.


Stay disciplined.
Boost your immune system.
Commit to wellness.
Wear your mask.
Protect your family.
Be strict about having people over your house or gatherings.
Stay positive.
And care for your fellow human beings.

Stay healthy, my friends.

 

[Simply Southern]

I am not as optimistic as you are. Some states will be prepared to roll this out, others will not. We do not have local plans yet, so we shall see. I'm pretty sure the Feds will set the overall agenda for who gets a vaccine.

And I seriously doubt we'll be the first nation to successfully roll out the vaccines. I think UK will likely beat us to it, judging by how the Feds here have handled every other aspect of this pandemic (slooowly). Australia will beat us to it, as well.

Now, will the US make some of its citizens (military) take a vaccine that has emergency authorization from the FDA? Yes. Will the US make that vaccine available to police? Probably (given that CoVid is now the leading cause of death for policemen in the US). Will ordinary citizens buy into the vaccine and go get it?

That's where the rubber hits the road. Not a single plan in place on how to convince over 300 million people to get a vaccine, with polls stating that from 40-50% of Americans will not take the vaccine right away.

A plan involves actually getting the vaccine into the bodies of the public. I'm not seeing that. We have had no overall plan for public education, period, full stop. Not a single national PSA that I've seen. Not even reliable information. There's so little faith in the CDC that the number of people willing to get the vaccine seems to be going in the wrong direction.

I was eager to get the vaccine early on, but now I want to know precisely which vaccines are available and make my decisions in conjunction with expert scrutiny. There are some really interesting monoclonal antibody vaccines out there - and the cross-reactivity issue is real. None of this has been carefully studied or planned for at the federal level - and the possibility of the roll-out of the vaccine being highly politicized seems ongoing to me.

My post 436 WSJ has more detail. Four states and a city have been tapped to develop a distribution plan. These will be used as templates for the states.

Phase one will have many ah ha moments and we may have to pivot rapidly. Healthcare workers and long term care, both groups could easily be done at a hospital or LTC faculty. General public is phase 3, surely by then more folks will have confidence in the vaccines and we may have a variety and want their life back and we can kick this nasty virus.

Once the vaccines are approved, clinical trials, side effects and lots more will be quickly released. Hopefully we will have two different kinds in the beginning and folks will have a choice.

It's hard to have faith, especially with what we are enduring, hoping for a vaccine for me at least by spring lifts my spirit. I need hope to get get through a long cold winter.

Moo...we will see more information released from various agencies, in the coming weeks. We just have to piece it together for a big picture.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Isolated children in outback Australia got all their elementary education from The School of the Air. The School of the Air | Alice Springs School of the Air.
It was first done with radio and now is done with technology.

Ah... what a wonderful reminder of the historic School of the Air ! Goes all the way back to the late 40s or early 50s.... So ahead of the times!!!

Reminds me of a favorite BBC mini-series, when living in England in the 80s... A Town Like Alice... goona see if I can stream it from anywhere....

Visiting Alice Springs has been on my fantasy bucket list, when I get my #1 Bucket List trip to Australia and New Zealand....

 

[CSIDreamer]

Indiana

1,110 new positive cases 8/20-9/2
4 deaths 8/13-9/1

ISDH - Novel Coronavirus: Indiana COVID-19 Dashboard

 

[musicaljoke]

No it isn't because the governors are responsible for their state results, as is constantly being stated. In the UK we have four nations who are devolved regarding health and education matters and make their own decisions. Regarding the elderly care homes in the US, this article discusses it and states that 45% of deaths have been in US care homes. That would be almost 82k deaths out of the 183k reported so far. That is a large portion and is completely the fault of the governors IMO.

45% of COVID-19 Deaths in Nursing Homes & Assisted Living Facilities

I also made the point that the largest passenger carrying airport hubs are in the US and UK (6 out of 10) which has also contributed enormously to the spread.

USA - 5 airports in top 10
UK- 1 airport 6th in the world.

List of busiest airports by passenger traffic - Wikipedia

The US had a perfectly fine Pandemic Preparedness Strategy before this pandemic began, which, if followed would have provided the necessary guidelines and lead to good success. The US was positioned best in the world for handling a pandemic. The present situation cannot be blamed on airports, care facilities or anything other than a leadership failure to follow its own Pandemic Preparedness Strategy.

National Pandemic Strategy | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/2019-study-found-us-best-prepared-country-to-handle-a-pandemic/

 

[nhmemorymaker]

So it's not political that the US are doing it too then. That's my point. If nothing was being done it would be negligent.

Oh come on...of course its political!! We obviously know that there are ALWAYS established protocols within any infrastructure that has to do any roll-out.

It is more the "press release" approach that is the message, not the actual preparation for the roll-out. The possible outcome could be that people only listen to the "bits", and then the wait, wait, wait will cause such confusion.

As stated by the NIH:
The director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, said he doesn't read this as CDC preparing to jump the gun on a vaccine. He said it's just in case one of the vaccines now being tested shows fast, clear evidence it is protecting people.

"Now, keep in mind that the likelihood of that is pretty low," Collins told CNN. "This is like the Boy Scout motto, 'Be Prepared,'" he said.

This is EXACTLY what breeds confusion, and disarray. If States feel compelled to jump on this, while having to determine everything else on their own without National rollouts... there will be freak-outs around the country. All States are so wound up with all the school issues and Oct is NEXT month.

CDC coronavirus vaccine guidance to states advises them to be ready bylate October


I do find your statement interesting however:
"That's my point. If nothing was being done it would be negligent."

Is your statement specific to an announcements about a vaccine roll-out, or CDC/US Gov actions in general?

 

[musicaljoke]

State officials want to pay counties $50K to enforce social distancing complaints

Seems that my prediction was correct - having enforcement based on the community at large turning in their friends and neighbors was doomed to failure. What did they think was going to happen when John Q. Public can call a number, or go to a web site, and "report" every time he sees someone else having fun?

I suspect that things will settle into a routine where places with high visibility - Scottsdale, Tempe, downtown Phoenix, college bars in Tucson and Flagstaff, etc., will get frequent visits from the State's available resources, while the "complaint" line will go mostly ignored.

If we act in the same way as society acted during the 1918 influenza pandemic, then we will start becoming more heavy handed with violators who are the cause of further outbreaks. The more we understand how the disease acts, and the better we get at controlling its spread, the easier it is to identify the guilty. The impact of their actions can be measured more easily too.

So, it's still possible that we will begin to see stricter enforcement.

Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic

 

[MrX]

If we act in the same way as society acted during the 1918 influenza pandemic, then we will start becoming more heavy handed with violators who are the cause of further outbreaks. The more we understand how the disease acts, and the better we get at controlling its spread, the easier it is to identify the guilty. The impact of their actions can be measured more easily too.

So, it's still possible that we will begin to see stricter enforcement. (off to find a link)

Enforcement will look different, based on locale. Here, tax cuts have gutted government, so there simply isn't any money to staff enforcement. We also differ from places like NY in that our Governor doesn't take Covid as seriously. So we will see some high profile busts, like what happened last weekend, but most establishments will settle into their own "normal."

 

[ilovewings]

The US had a perfectly fine Pandemic Preparedness Strategy before this pandemic began, which, if followed would have provided the necessary guidelines and lead to good success. The US was positioned best in the world for handling a pandemic. The present situation cannot be blamed on airports, care facilities or anything other than a leadership failure to follow its own Pandemic Preparedness Strategy.

National Pandemic Strategy | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/2019-study-found-us-best-prepared-country-to-handle-a-pandemic/

if there was a love icon i would use that

 

[musicaljoke]

Enforcement will look different, based on locale. Here, tax cuts have gutted government, so there simply isn't any money to staff enforcement. We also differ from places like NY in that our Governor doesn't take Covid as seriously. So we will see some high profile busts, like what happened last weekend, but most establishments will settle into their own "normal."

Yes, that's thought provoking. What will happen is still a bit of a crap shoot. It could be just as you say, that there isn't money for enforcement and people will do whatever they want. But, if Covid lingers and the region continues to have outbreaks, then there may be more incentive to get Covid under control, especially if other regions control Covid and return to business. Will people in your region get tired of having the virus constantly boiling away in the background, disrupting schools, costing lives, endangering health care workers, and economically challenging already gutted governments? Or will they demand that the virus is brought under control through regulations, fines and other strong arm tactics?

JMO, but I suspect that even your leaders will begin to see the necessity of stopping the spread. How will they do that when they've been lax about it so far?

 

[10ofRods]

If we act in the same way as society acted during the 1918 influenza pandemic, then we will start becoming more heavy handed with violators who are the cause of further outbreaks. The more we understand how the disease acts, and the better we get at controlling its spread, the easier it is to identify the guilty. The impact of their actions can be measured more easily too.

So, it's still possible that we will begin to see stricter enforcement.

Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic

We've started going to the park to do stairs and DH is hill-walking. No one wears a mask. There are signs everywhere telling people to wear masks - we were the only ones wearing masks.

Each time we've been there, there's been a different group of older ladies who bring chairs and head for the shade nearest the parking lot - plopping themselves basically in the middle of a well-used trail. No masks. They are about 4 feet from each other and I'd be surprised if they are the same household - it looks like friends meet-up.

Lots of kids, many many runners/panters, all passing each other. Now, personally, I believe outdoors is relatively safe, so I am trying to treat this scene as normal. We're watching footage from Paris, filmed yesterday, in which most people are now wearing masks (new policy) but some are leaving them down until policemen (masked) ride by on bicycles, then they put them on briefly. They do look to be tourists, though.

People are not all going to wear masks. We should still be able to lessen CoVid if people wear them indoors - and of course, people are probably going to continue to exercise in parks (there are yoga classes, cross-fit classes, etc, all meeting at the beaches and the parks). Gyms, salons, bars, restaurants, theaters, live entertainment will continue to suffer, which is really sad.

Even with a vaccine, people have to actually take the vaccine (and the vaccine has to work) for this to end. If we had had very high compliance with mask wearing in the beginning (back in March), we wouldn't be wear we are now, with CoVid in every nook and cranny. A very-sequestered friend of mine just tested positive and no one in her family/household is positive, so we're all stymied about where she got it - either by going to the doctor or on her 2 trips to a socially distanced grocery store (wearing a mask of course, but no visor).

 

[10ofRods]

My post 436 WSJ has more detail. Four states and a city have been tapped to develop a distribution plan. These will be used as templates for the states.
don'
Phase one will have many ah ha moments and we may have to pivot rapidly. Healthcare workers and long term care, both groups could easily be done at a hospital or LTC faculty. General public is phase 3, surely by then more folks will have confidence in the vaccines and we may have a variety and want their life back and we can kick this nasty virus.

Once the vaccines are approved, clinical trials, side effects and lots more will be quickly released. Hopefully we will have two different kinds in the beginning and folks will have a choice.

It's hard to have faith, especially with what we are enduring, hoping for a vaccine for me at least by spring lifts my spirit. I need hope to get get through a long cold winter.

Moo...we will see more information released from various agencies, in the coming weeks. We just have to piece it together for a big picture.

I'm sorry, but clinical trials should come before approval!!!

FDA usually requires extensive clinical trials before even approving limited usage in special populations.

No approval should ever occur without extensive, 3-4 phrase clinical trials and rigorous data collection. Complete recipe for disaster otherwise. We need to be able to distinguish between typical and normative side effects and serious side effects, just for starters. In every demographic: every genetic demographic, every age demographic.

 

[tresir2012]

The US had a perfectly fine Pandemic Preparedness Strategy before this pandemic began, which, if followed would have provided the necessary guidelines and lead to good success. The US was positioned best in the world for handling a pandemic. The present situation cannot be blamed on airports, care facilities or anything other than a leadership failure to follow its own Pandemic Preparedness Strategy.

National Pandemic Strategy | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/2019-study-found-us-best-prepared-country-to-handle-a-pandemic/

I agree it is a leadership failure by the Governors. Where in the plan you refer to does it tell the governors how to deal with elderly care and assisted living personnel in a pandemic? Can you indicate and perhaps copy the section? The governors of the individual states are responsible for those 83,000 deaths in addition to the other deaths in their states. Regarding the original post, it was asking why US and UK had 25% of the deaths so that is what I was addressing, the international travel (6 out of the 10 largest passenger capacity airports) that originally brought Covid to our shores.

 

[MrX]

Yes, that's thought provoking. What will happen is still a bit of a crap shoot. It could be just as you say, that there isn't money for enforcement and people will do whatever they want. But, if Covid lingers and the region continues to have outbreaks, then there may be more incentive to get Covid under control, especially if other regions control Covid and return to business. Will people in your region get tired of having the virus constantly boiling away in the background, disrupting schools, costing lives, endangering health care workers, and economically challenging already gutted governments? Or will they demand that the virus is brought under control through regulations, fines and other strong arm tactics?

JMO, but I suspect that even your leaders will begin to see the necessity of stopping the spread. How will they do that when they've been lax about it so far?

Too many people here are skeptical of the whole thing for there to be any broad based support for more draconian measures. You'd be amazed at what I regularly hear from otherwise smart, sensible people - including nurses. People who don't believe it's "real" will find their way around road blocks. So this will remain the same, here, until there is medical solution.