Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #84

[dixiegirl1035]

US nears daily Covid cases record amid warning of 500,000 deaths by February

Has anyone done the math on this? What kind of daily positive rate and daily death rate might we be looking at?

That projection is if all mitigations were eased and is not the current Washington projection on current path MOO.

The University of Washington site is the IHME tracker... and you can click on to see current trend projections and also the associated daily rates you are looking for. (You can also drill down each state as another option) Current projection is ~386,000 deaths by February.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

 

[anneg]

Ginger ale, sweet oil, Vick's, cherry cough syrup, iodine, mecuricome, methiolate, chicken noodle soup, what else?

Those are all familiar to me. For an earache, my mother would warm oil of cloves and put it in the ear with a dropper, and plug it with a cotton ball for a while. As I recall, the pain relief was instant.

Has anyone ever used onion syrup for cough? Apparently it's a very old home remedy--you cook cut onions with sugar or honey to make the syrup. I wonder if it would work for Covid cough.

 

[Sprockett7701]

it's happening to me in Ontario, Canada too and they're not drugs for treating Covid

I saw Diazapam on that list too, that’s not a COVID treatment per se...but I would imagine with the huge mental health issues surrounding the pandemic that the use of this has risen...I have some old ones in my bathroom cabinet...maybe I can sell them...I joke...

 

[Sprockett7701]

Those are all familiar to me. For an earache, my mother would warm oil of cloves and put it in the ear with a dropper, and plug it with a cotton ball for a while. As I recall, the pain relief was instant.

Has anyone ever used onion syrup for cough? Apparently it's a very old home remedy--you cook cut onions with sugar or honey to make the syrup. I wonder if it would work for Covid cough.

My dad used to swear by roasted onions for a cough/cold...going back several decades lol

 

[Sprockett7701]

oh my no...no gargling the baby shampoo.... but I will pay more attention to the soaps in the nose. Others are posting some info that should be helpful.

I don’t even use Johnson & Johnson products on my children, haven’t for several years. Not likely to start douching my nose with it...but then we have the pandemic under control where I live...

 

[10ofRods]

That's so strange! I'll read the article to figure out the logic. I'm guessing it's so that people won't go to the store JUST for non-essentials. ??

Plus maybe they afraid of shortages? I wonder where UK gets its paper products and kettles, for example. UK apparently has but one paper manufacturing company (Kimberly Clark) and imports quite a bit from Germany, Finland, Switzerland and Sweden.

In other news, Delta is serious about its banned flier list. This is as it should be.

US nears daily Covid cases record amid warning of 500,000 deaths by February

Has anyone done the math on this? What kind of daily positive rate and daily death rate might we be looking at?

I don't know how many tests were performed nationwide today, so can't do the positivity rate (most states post their daily test numbers, but I'd have to wait a couple of days and use the IMHE daily test data).

But...if we use the world average of 4% of people who get CoVid are dying, that's about 3200 deaths in future (spread over a few weeks - but if this continues, naturally, it will be around 3000 per day by, say, early December).

If we are optimistic and most people can get good care (hospitals are overflowing in North Dakota, South Dakota, parts of Texas, Idaho), then it would be only 2,400.

If we're very lucky and most of these new cases are in the under 40 group and relatively healthy, then even better. This is not an impossible thing - we've been averaging around 1000 deaths per day, give or take, based on about 40-50,000 new cases a day a month ago. So, 2000 deaths a day would be the optimistic prediction.

Thing is, it's bad in Florida and elderly people are still a huge number there. It looks like CoVId is just racing rampant through the whole demographic...and while today was really bad - there's absolutely no reason to think it's not going to get worse before it gets better.

Either because people wise up...or because they are forced to obey simple health rules.

 

[Sprockett7701]

Yes, I wonder when 'last resort' (lockdowns) comes into effect?

How many cases? 70,000 per day, 100,000 per day, 150,000 per day? What is the magic number?

I guess it is all about perspective. We lock down at a large number to us, which is a tiny number to others. But when you have some control over the virus, it is important to not let that control go.

SA...I don’t know, but the numbers seem crazy, mind blowing to me as a Perth resident...I just can’t even imagine a day where we would have 70k cases in 24 hours...surely something needs to be done? Like you say control is very important...

 

[Sprockett7701]

ok...so what do we mean by "open slather"

I’m no expert...but 70k cases a day to me seems to be pretty much open slather...and continuing to open schools and play sports, etc et al...I say to my 4 & 6 yr olds, if you’re not getting the results you want, you need to change the way you are doing it...they seem to understand that concept even at their age...

ETA MOO IMO

 

[LadyL]

Our Aisle of Shame has drastically decreased in quantity and quality this year. But I think Aldi's prices are worth it even without it.

why do you call it 'Aisle of Shame'??

 

[10ofRods]

That projection is if all mitigations were eased and is not the current Washington projection on current path MOO.

The University of Washington site is the IHME tracker... and you can click on to see current trend projections and also the associated daily rates you are looking for. (You can also drill down each state as another option) Current projection is ~386,000 deaths by February.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Feb 1. So 3 months and 10 days away. 160,000 further deaths. 1600 a day.

However, there is easing going on (DeSantis wants the nursing homes to open up more; California is opening up gradually; Arizona is opening; Illinois has opened quite a bit).

The measures we've had in place in California had businesses at 25% of capacity and no indoor dining. Now, some places (San Francisco) are moving up to indoor dining and 50% capacity at regular businesses. I think gyms are opening. California is going to see an uptick.

So...it'll probably be in between the worst case scenario and the best case. Also, as the health people in ND are saying: "mask mandates don't work, no one is wearing them." (Paraphrased by me).

I just know that we're back in that situation we were in, in April, where most of us who are worried should just stay home. I feel like I missed a window of opportunity to get my flu shot (getting it this weekend), but will be very careful about mask/goggles and hope for the best.

People are traveling again - motel reservations in California are up, national parks are sort of open, etc. Southwest Airlines is going back to full capacity on its flight on Nov 1, IIRC.

So the very optimistic "all measures stay in place" is not going to be reality, IMO.

 

[margarita25]

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[musicaljoke]

I can see more people trying to buy kettles online, maybe second hand. Or in Op Shops (charity stores)
To me a kettle is a basic essential.

Could you boil water in a pot on the stove?

 

[beatrixpotter]

why do you call it 'Aisle of Shame'??

I don't remember where I initially heard it. It might be limited to a massive online group dedicated to it. Basically it's for people who love Aldi and especially all the goodies in the middle aisle. People go in for groceries and come out with tons of things they couldn't help buying from the aisle of shame.

 

[SouthAussie]

Melbourne had another little 'freedom rally' yesterday. About 300 people, eventually contained by a perimeter of police on horses.

So what did some of these nincompoops do? Started striking the horses. How low can you go??

Of course, they were arrested for assaulting police 'officers'.


Victoria Police have blasted violent protesters, including a man who hit several horses in the face with a flagpole during an anti-lockdown rally in Melbourne.
Confronting footage shows flares being set off, police horses assaulted, and a police van being hit as mayhem erupted. Violent protesters attacked police trying to control the crowd, many blatantly breaching COVID-19 directions.

Flares thrown, police van attacked as protest erupts in Melbourne


I heard on the radio news today that the police said their horses are okay. Everyone (else) in what seems like the entire country has been so concerned about how the horses are doing.

 

[margarita25]

Melbourne had another little 'freedom rally' yesterday. About 300 people, eventually contained by a perimeter of police on horses.

So what did some of these nincompoops do? Started striking the horses.

Of course, they were arrested for assaulting police 'officers'. How low can you go??


Victoria Police have blasted violent protesters, including a man who hit several horses in the face with a flagpole during an anti-lockdown rally in Melbourne.
Confronting footage shows flares being set off, police horses assaulted, and a police van being hit as mayhem erupted. Violent protesters attacked police trying to control the crowd, many blatantly breaching COVID-19 directions.

Flares thrown, police van attacked as protest erupts in Melbourne


I heard on the radio news today that the police said their horses are okay. Everyone (else) in what seems like the entire country has been so concerned about how the horses are doing.

Horrible!!!!!

 

[anneg]

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Great interview. Thank God for Dr. Anthony Fauci! I love his "laser focus" on his job and what he needs to do to keep Americans healthy.

 

[303gmf]

Could you boil water in a pot on the stove?

Lol! I had the same question
Seems an easy solution

 

[Sprockett7701]

Horrible!!!!!

Melbourne had another little 'freedom rally' yesterday. About 300 people, eventually contained by a perimeter of police on horses.

So what did some of these nincompoops do? Started striking the horses.

Of course, they were arrested for assaulting police 'officers'. How low can you go??


Victoria Police have blasted violent protesters, including a man who hit several horses in the face with a flagpole during an anti-lockdown rally in Melbourne.
Confronting footage shows flares being set off, police horses assaulted, and a police van being hit as mayhem erupted. Violent protesters attacked police trying to control the crowd, many blatantly breaching COVID-19 directions.

Flares thrown, police van attacked as protest erupts in Melbourne


I heard on the radio news today that the police said their horses are okay. Everyone (else) in what seems like the entire country has been so concerned about how the horses are doing.

The irony...we want to go to the race season...but don’t you dare hit our police horses! Luckily numbers are low in VIC now...but still not good in terms of COVID spread...I think Broadmeadows and suburbs like that may continue to present issues as well...

 

[Tigerlily75]

The CDC, I think if they're health-related. I'm thinking along the lines of how successful the anti-smoking campaigns have been in getting people to stop smoking (And that's hard!), and in not starting to smoke in the first place.

I think it's so odd that we (or at least I) haven't seen anything even remotely like that.

The only thing I see is elected officials repeating numbers and issuing warnings, but nothing that really reaches deep and grabs attention.

I really wish we'd see some engaging ads that really hit home--where it counts.

We have ads like that, and there’s also covid ads all over tv, radio, social media, bus stops, billboards etc with the motto “staying apart keeps us together”. This is in Victoria, Australia.

Example:

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[Lilibet]

cherry cough syrup,

I was given so much cherry cough syrup as a kid that to this day (approaching 75) I’m not a fan of cherry flavored anything...even the real fruit. Too bad they didn’t flavor it with chocolate...it would have saved me a lot of calories over the years!