Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #88

[Cool Cats]

D

 

[Cool Cats]

The SARS-CoV-2 Global Surveillance Project provides standard surveillance metrics that are useful and allow us to compare regions even though they are limited to more severe cases and suffer from incomplete case ascertainment and data contamination. To address these data limitations, we validated additional novel surveillance metrics of (1) speed, (2) acceleration, and (3) jerk (change in acceleration), (4) 7-Day Lag, (5) 7-Day Persistence effect.

Data Dashboard – The Global SARS CoV-2 Surveillance Project (GASSP)

Aerosol-based study of COVID-19 risk indoors, and the impact of preventive measures

Now published in

Model Calculations of Aerosol Transmission and Infection Risk of COVID-19 in Indoor Environments

Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and The Cyprus Institute, Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, describes the estimated risk of COVID-19 transmission via aerosols in many different situations, as well as the expected reduction in risk associated with the use of various preventive measures.

Office Spread
Classroom environment

Reception Desk
Guests at a reception desk speak loudly compared to people in an office or classroom, but the space is usually bigger, and the exposure time is shorter. Without other measures, about 4 infections may be expected from the index case but two in the classroom. Active ventilation and HEPA will progressively reduce this risk by 2.5 to 3 times and 10 times, respectively. Face masks and good-quality masks also reduce the risk.

Choir practice
Due to the high aerosol emission during singing compared to breathing, a single highly infectious index case can infect 29% of the others, half this number if active ventilation is present, and 9-fold with HEPA. Face masks are not used in this setting.
Superspreaders can result in infection rates of 71% with active ventilation and 29% with HEPA.

 

[24Roses]

Iowa numbers and news today: As of 10:00-11:00 a.m., we had 2,926 new "confirmed" cases for a total of 246,792 confirmed cases of which 147,152 are recovering (+4,903). Very sadly, 70 more were reported to have passed for a total of 2,519. 136 were hospitalized in the last 24 hrs. for a total of 1,124 (IMO -38) According to KWWL the 24 hr. positivity rate is 41.7% with 87,121 active positive cases. Dec. 3: Iowa reports 70 more COVID-19 deaths, 2,926 more cases
access Daily case totals updated at 11:00 a.m.
Gov. Reynolds expects COVID-19 vaccine available for 172,000 Iowans by end of December
First dosages will focus on health care workers in long term care and the residents

 

[24Roses]

Iowa numbers and news today: As of 10:00-11:00 a.m., we had 2,926 new "confirmed" cases for a total of 246,792 confirmed cases of which 147,152 are recovering (+4,903). Very sadly, 70 more were reported to have passed for a total of 2,519. 136 were hospitalized in the last 24 hrs. for a total of 1,124 (IMO -38) According to KWWL the 24 hr. positivity rate is 41.7% with 87,121 active positive cases. Dec. 3: Iowa reports 70 more COVID-19 deaths, 2,926 more cases
access Daily case totals updated at 11:00 a.m.
Gov. Reynolds expects COVID-19 vaccine available for 172,000 Iowans by end of December
First dosages will focus on health care workers in long term care and the residents

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Catching up. Regarding the vaccine, it's pretty simple for me. I either 1 - get the vaccine, 2- hole up with no human contact for the next couple of years, or 3- possibly die.

I'm obviously choosing #1, and I'm avoiding reading too much about the vaccine. I don’t need the anxiety, worrying about remote possibilities when there really is no choice but to get the vaccine.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Dateline is on tonight with a special talking to the heads of the vaccine companies. The lead in said something happened today with Pfizer supply chain.

Just a heads up the program is on.

ETA:

Pfizer says supply chain challenges contributed to slashed target for COVID-19 vaccine doses in 2020

Pfizer plans to roll out half of originally planned vaccines due to supply-chain problems

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Bringing this information forward on costs/ages/quantities from my earlier posts due to Oxford/AstraZeneca coming out... just as a refresher on who pre-ordered what, and costs. Also of note, adding ages that were in the trials from earlier post. Also added Operation Warp Speed document which gives more information.

Roll outs
Moderna/NIH 20 million doses ready by end of 2020; 500 million to one billion doses in 2021. Can be manufactured in US, Switzerland and Spain. Advanced orders are US order was for 100 million doses with options on 400 million more; EU 80 million doses; Japan 50 million doses; Canada 20 million; Switzerland 4.5 million; UK 5 million doses for spring. They are in talks with WHO, COVAX re distribution and a tiered pricing proposal.
Cost expected $32-37/dose Tested on 18 Years old and up

Pfizer 50 million doses by end of 2020. Advanced orders are US 100-500 million; EU 200 million; UK 40 million doses
Cost expected $19.50/dose Tested on 12 years old and up

AstraZeneca/Oxford
EU 400 million doses; UK 100 million doses; alliance for poorer countries 300 million doses.
Cost expected $5/dose Tested on 5-12 years old and 18 and up

Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline
No info on.
Cost expected $12/dose

Source:
Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #87

Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #87

I had never read this before... information on operation Warp Speed which I found of interest much of the info.
Fact Sheet: Explaining Operation Warp Speed

*bump*

The "news" today was that 2020 Pfizer will only have 50 million for 2020, but we here at WS... already knew such and not new information here on the threads. See above previous post which was referencing another from mid-November. MOO

This didn't happen "today" as they said on lead in to program. MOO

 

[margarita25]

*bump*

The "news" today was that 2020 Pfizer will only have 50 million for 2020, but we here at WS... already knew such and not new information here on the threads. See above previous post which was referencing another from mid-November. MOO

This didn't happen "today" as they said on lead in to program. MOO

Dixie Darling, I cant keep up with you, , but making a note, I’m working on the Q&A transcription you sent me...Dr. Mike mentions something wrt supply...

Catching up. Regarding the vaccine, it's pretty simple for me. I either 1 - get the vaccine, 2- hole up with no human contact for the next couple of years, or 3- possibly die.

I'm obviously choosing #1, and I'm avoiding reading too much about the vaccine. I don’t need the anxiety, worrying about remote possibilities when there really is no choice but to get the vaccine.

Absolutely makes sense. I get that. And pretty much the same conclusion I came to, as I stated, and which is why I want to feel comfortable and educated about the decision.

I think it’s important to discuss all medical vaccine aspects openly in the name of science, and work through any obstacles as related to achieving vaccine confidence, which is going to be a HUGE ISSUE for MANY going forward, as Dr. Fauci, Dr. Osterholm and others have stated...At least some of us here are willing to discuss it openly and post/learn about “vaccine confidence”...imagine the people who have their eyes and ears consciously closed. There may be no reaching them. And if some aren’t even going to wear a mask, etc...

Some comments wrt vaccines from Dr. Mike on the way. God Bless this man (and Dr. Maria). As usual, he address everything. Jmo.

 

[beatrixpotter]

I can't find the citation, but about 2 weeks ago, there was a report (I believe it was CDC) that there were a record low number of flu deaths so far this flu season.

Mask wearing and staying home is keeping the flu at bay. More people got flu shots than in any previous year.

My kids have gotten sick recently. We took one of them to see the doctor this morning since she had a fever. The doctor said they have not had a single child test positive for the flu yet this season so they weren't even going to test for it without ruling other things out. I was glad to my see my child was able to get a rapid result covid test which was thankfully negative.

It turns out we have strep going through the house unfortunately.
But I was truly blown away at not one person coming in testing positive for the flu.

 

[charminglane]

Stay at home order from my work announced today for 3 weeks. We have 48 hours to comply. My last day in the building until at least January 4 will be Saturday.
I'm thinking we won't be able to return until Valentine's Day, at the earliest.
Pasadena area.

 

[LadyL]

omg ya'll

Alberta Woman Allegedly Smashed A Glass On A Server's Face After Being Told To Wear A Mask

 

[LadyL]

Once, we stood in solidarity against the virus. Then came the second wave

 

[LadyL]

COVID shaming is on the rise again in Canada, just in time for Christmas holiday plans

 

[LadyL]

Toronto Teachers Walk Out After School Tests All Students & Finds Dozens Of COVID-19 Cases

 

[margarita25]

California braces for likely COVID-19 lockdowns | WNT

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[CrimeAway]

Regarding the lowered influenza rates for this season, I have read various articles that have postulated theories, such as
1) Viral "competition"
2) Fewer influenza positives due to masks, hand washing, social distancing etc.
3) Greater uptake of 'flu vaccine.

All is IMO, will try and quote sources tomorrow, but a cursory Google search will provide some info.

 

[margarita25]

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[margarita25]

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the Member States briefing on COVID-19 - 3 December 2020
3 December 2020 | source
Honourable Ministers, Excellencies, dear colleagues and friends,

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening.

Today’s briefing will start with an update from Dr Anders Nordstrom, head of the secretariat of the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, to be followed by a question and answer period, as Tim said.

Dr Nordstrom will brief you on the Independent Panel’s fact-finding work on the impacts of the pandemic and its engagement with stakeholders.

The Panel’s next meeting will take place on the 16th and 17th of December, and will provide an update to the Executive Board in January.

After that, you will hear an update on vaccines and the COVAX Facility from Dr Kate O’Brien, the Director of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals, along with WHO Chief Scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan, and Dr Mariângela Simão, the Assistant Director-General for Access to Medicines and Health Products.

Last week, Dr Swaminathan and Dr O’Brien provided an update on results from several COVID-19 vaccines and on country readiness and delivery support.

Today we will continue that discussion, updating you on the regulatory approval of the vaccines, access to vaccines, and the COVAX Facility.

As you may know, yesterday the United Kingdom became the first country to approve a vaccine with demonstrated efficacy for COVID-19.

It is incredible to think that less than a year ago, we had not even heard of this virus, and now we have an approved vaccine against it.

WHO has an unwavering commitment to equitable, timely and fair access to all the tools that can serve to mitigate and end this pandemic, including vaccines.

There is a great deal of work to do in each country to make that a reality. In the beginning, of course, vaccine quantity will be limited, but will increase over the course of 2021.

This means that not all countries will receive doses at exactly the same time, but as supplies increase, countries will receive vaccines as quickly as possible.

In the meantime, we are working with countries to make sure that they are prepared to receive and deliver vaccines.

We are here, along with our partners, to do everything possible to ease the way.

I am so pleased to share that donors have answered the initial call for funding the Gavi COVAX Advanced Market Commitment target of two billion US dollars in 2020.

I would like to use this opportunity to thank you. Much gratitude.

We look forward to successfully funding the total requirements in 2021.

As always, there will be time for your questions. And we look forward to receiving your suggestions, inputs and guidance.

I thank you.

 

[Lilibet]

OREGON—New, improved, updated Covid-19 website...

People in Oregon will find it easier to learn about the state framework that went into effect today with an updated coronavirus website. The website is the new go-to place for anyone who wants to learn about COVID-19 in Oregon. Among the highlights are a map with each county risk level, state guidelines, resources, testing information and more.

Explore the updated website at coronavirus.oregon.gov.

I love this particular part linked below showing a risk map. Note that most of the whole state is “extreme‘’ including my county (Jackson) on the southern border with CA, the third county in from the coast. You can click/tap on each county for details.

Tableau Public

 

[margarita25]

Rsbm

I love this particular part linked below showing a risk map. Note that most of the whole state is “extreme‘’ including my county (Jackson) on the southern border with CA, the third county in from the coast. You can click/tap on each county for details.

Tableau Public

(Woot! Click on maps, ten thousand likes! Very tactile, as you mentioned.)

Thumbs up - eta / yeah that’s awesome
Tableau Public