Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #2

[JerseyGirl]

China Eastern Airlines has become the first major Chinese carrier to suspend flights to and from the United States.

Coronavirus death toll now higher than SARS in mainland China - live updates - CNN

 

[Alyce]

Britain’s £20 million cash injection for Coronavirus vaccine: Inoculation could be ready to test on patients in just four months amid global push by scientists backed by UK government

• ‘Unprecedented’ target was set to find a vaccine and start clinical trials by June
• The Government made its cash pledge to an international team of experts
• Experts specialise in speeding up vaccine development after major outbreaks
• Scientists admit timescale set is ‘extremely ambitious’ but said speed is crucial

Britain's £20 million cash injection for Coronavirus vaccine | Daily Mail Online

 

[dixiegirl1035]

DATE ---- Mainland ---- Outside Mainland China
2/2-------17,200----183
2/1Fri -- 14,300 ---- 173
1/31 ---- 11,200 ---- 153
1/30 ---- 9,700 ---- 118
1/29 ---- 7,700 ---- 105
1/28 ---- 6,000 ---- 87
1/27 ---- 4,400 ---- 64
1/26 ---- 2,700 ---- 57
1/25Fri -- 2,000 ---- 40
1/24 ---- 916 ---- 25

<--appears black, click on to view. e.d. I cut off today Feb3 as it's incorrect/intraday until tomorrow iykwim

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

 

[Simply Southern]

SO.....

My understanding of where we’re at based on information from the two posts referenced above....

The current general consensus of the scientific community is that the Wuhan Coronavirus appears to be VERY CONTAGIOUS and will almost certainly turn into a pandemic.

They also have no idea, as of yet, just how deadly this strain is, but the two coronaviruses they are using for comparison have a mortality rate of approximately 10% & 33% respectively.

With that being said, (and staying within my chosen role of being one of the melodramatic pessimists on this thread...) the WORST CASE SCENARIO (based on known reported data combined with assumptions of similar coronaviruses) is that this virus is highly transmissible and has a very high probability of turning into a worldwide pandemic with a possible top end mortality rate of approximately 33%.

BEST CASE SCENARIO
same as above, but with a mortality rate below 3%.

Either way, without a vaccine or a solid treatment plan with a high success rate of recovery - it appears as though humanity may be facing a very devastating event !!
Add that to the fact that recent reports have indicated this virus most likely has a long incubation period, can be transferred while being asymptomatic, can survive for 5 - 28 days on objects, and can apparently re-infect individuals that have already recovered from it...

I believe we’re in for a very long and very bumpy ride with no apparent end currently in sight.

Our one saving grace may lie with the drug treatment that was just administered to an infected patient in the Philippines. The end result of that treatment appears to be remission and full recovery.

Let’s all hope that those same results can be duplicated repeatedly !!

Totally agree!!!

Has anyone tried to purchase the N95 medical mask? I've tried for two weeks to order or purchase locally. All on back order. Contacted a few friends in the medical supply business and they can't get these either.

I've VERY concerned that we are unable to purchase the N95 but I see these in every photo from China.

Have we put the US at risk???? The ONLY mask approved is unavailable/ indefinite backorder.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Totally agree!!!

Has anyone tried to purchase the N95 medical mask? I've tried for two weeks to order or purchase locally. All on back order. Contacted a few friends in the medical supply business and they can't get these either.

I've VERY concerned that we are unable to purchase the N95 but I see these in every photo from China.

Have we put the US at risk???? The ONLY mask approved is unavailable/ indefinite backorder.

My husband bought a couple packets of two at Menards, I think. Check Lowe’s, Home Depot, menards, and other home improvement stores. But I also found a reusable mask online with 4 replaceable filters, supposed to be N-95

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I’ve just answered my own question- yes, there were THREE new cases of CV confirmed in the SF Bay Area on Sunday. So 4 total.

Coronavirus: 11th US case of virus from China confirmed in California

The 3 new cases were right after each other so the news just isn’t catching up. And the locals here very focused on the Super Bowl of course.

There was another presser about it but I think it was during the game- so basically no one saw it

I’ve read some of her quotes and it was essentially a ver batum from the one on Friday.

Yes, here are the two health department original releases from the three new cases

County of Santa Clara Public Health Department Reports Second Case of Novel (new) Coronavirus - Public Health Department - County of Santa Clara 2/2/2020 3:37 PM

The County of Santa Clara Public Health Department received confirmation this morning from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of a second case of the novel (new) coronavirus. This second case is in an adult female. This Santa Clara County case is not related to the first case but they both had recently traveled to Wuhan, China. She is a visitor to this county and arrived January 23 to visit family. She has stayed home since she arrived, except for two times to seek outpatient medical care. She has been regularly monitored and was never sick enough to be hospitalized. Family members have also been isolated, which means that they do not leave the house, even to buy groceries. The Public Health Department provides food and other necessary items.

https://bnonews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/222020Case.pdf February 2, 2020

San Benito County, CA –Two cases of 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) have been confirmed in San Benito County. The confirmed cases are related; husband and wife,and both are 57 years of age. The husband recently traveled from Wuhan, China the wife did not. Therefore,there has beenperson-to-person transmission. Both patients have not left their home since returning from China. San Benito County Public Health Services provided guidance for home isolation and is closely monitoring their medical condition. Currently, both patients are not hospitalized.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Vatican sends hundreds of thousands of masks to China

The Vatican has shipped hundreds of thousands of face masks to the Chinese provinces of Hubei, Zhejiang and Fujian in response to the coronavirus outbreak "to help stop the spread of the contamination of coronavirus."

The initiative comes from the Office of Papal charities, the Chinese Missionary Center in Italy, with the help of the Vatican Pharmacy. The statement did not provide with a specific number of masks nor with specific dates.

Coronavirus death toll now higher than SARS in mainland China - live updates - CNN

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Coronavirus deepens challenges for Detroit Three in China

Detroit's automakers have delayed production in China amid the widening coronavirus crisis, exacerbating their operational problems in the world's largest market.

As the companies prepare to announce 2019 financial results this week, the outbreak also adds to their woes stemming from trade tensions with the United States, slowing consumer demand, more stringent emissions regulations and growing evidence their lineups are not quite right for the times.

“All of the Detroit Three have been battling the declining demand,” said Michael Dunne, CEO of Hong Kong-based advisory firm ZoZo Go LLC. “It’s no secret Ford and FCA are losing money there. That was in 2019 before the virus hit. 2020 is going to be a tough year. That difficulty has just been compounded.”...

 

[What if...]

Totally agree!!!

Has anyone tried to purchase the N95 medical mask? I've tried for two weeks to order or purchase locally. All on back order. Contacted a few friends in the medical supply business and they can't get these either.

I've VERY concerned that we are unable to purchase the N95 but I see these in every photo from China.

Have we put the US at risk???? The ONLY mask approved is unavailable/ indefinite backorder.

The answer to that question depends on what article you read. From what’s been posted on this thread, the majority of articles stated that the masks are beneficial if those that are infected wear them (helps prevent spread through coughing / sneezing, etc,...)
Most of those same articles say that wearing the masks won’t do much to help someone keep from getting the virus. One article (I have no idea which one), said that the microscopic holes in the N95 are actually about three times larger than the virus itself.
I’m guessing the masks will remain on backorder for awhile since there’s great demand for them worldwide right now. But I’m also guessing that the manufacturers will step up production significantly.
Those masks are used in a wide variety of industries (including the medical field), so they’ll do everything they can to fill those backorders as quickly as they possibly can. (not to mention they’re going to take this opportunity to bolster their bottom line)

With that being said however, there have been a few articles that lean in the other direction regarding the effectiveness of the N95 masks in preventing the spread of the virus to the wearer.
lol - I guess the bottom line is that even though I’ve read dozens of articles on the subject, I’m still not sure what the correct answer actually is....

 

[Amonet]

Wonder why they didn't report these suspected cases or if there are more suspected cases? Ohio has had a poor Dept of Health for the last couple decades. For a long time the department head wasn't even a doctor.

I'm guessing there are more suspected cases in OH they're not reporting.

ETA Looks like the latest Dr. Acton doesn't have a real medical degree per se. Her degree isn't from a true medical school. Never heard of this place.It only has 150 students.

Northeast Ohio Medical University - Wikipedia

In other places only a relatively small fraction of the suspected cases have tested positive. I have noticed that the UK stopped reporting suspected cases. I think this is because it adds to fear without having enough indication that those cases will test positive. The UK had about 160 suspected cases with none testing positive. It's not worth living in fear of those cases when none tested positive. Once a case tests positive seems the best time to make that information public.

 

[dotr]

Coronavirus: Could it become pandemic?
Feb 3 2020
''A truly global outbreak or pandemic has not been declared yet.

But officials are preparing for the possibility that this could be the next pandemic that the world will have to face.''
What is a pandemic?
The description is reserved for an infectious disease threatening lots of people all over the world simultaneously.

A recent example was the 2009 swine flu pandemic, which experts think killed hundreds of thousands of people.

Pandemics are more likely if a virus is brand new, able to infect people easily and can spread from person to person in an efficient and sustained way.

Coronavirus appears to tick all of those boxes.

With no vaccine or treatment that can prevent it yet, containing its spread is vital.

When is a pandemic declared?
According to the World Health Organization's (WHO) description of pandemic phases, coronavirus is only a step away from being a pandemic.

It is spreading between people and has been seen in many of China's neighbouring countries, as well as further afield.

If we start seeing sustained community-level outbreaks in multiple parts of the world, then it will be a pandemic.''

 

[margarita25]

rsbm / BBM"According to the 2010 study "Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival and Surfaces,"... In the lower temperatures, the virus could survive on a stainless steel surface from 5 to 28 days at all humidity levels.

 

[dotr]

China accuses US of spreading coronavirus 'panic'
''The Chinese government has accused the US of causing "panic" in its response to the deadly coronavirus outbreak.

It follows the US decision to declare a public health emergency and deny entry to foreign nationals who had visited China in the past two weeks.

There are more than 17,000 confirmed cases of the virus in China. Some 361 people have died there.

Outside China, there are more than 150 confirmed cases of the virus - and one death, in the Philippines.''

''The virus causes severe acute respiratory infection and symptoms seem to start with a fever, followed by a dry cough.''

''Various countries have imposed varying travel restrictions and other preventative measures, including:

• Denying entry to all foreign visitors who have recently been to China: US, Australia, Singapore
• Denying entry to foreigners travelling from mainland China: New Zealand, Israel. (Russia will also apply these restrictions, though not through Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport)
• Denying entry to foreigners who have visited Hubei province: Japan, South Korea
• Temporarily suspending all flights to mainland China: Egypt, Finland, Indonesia, the UK, Italy
• Closing the border with China: Mongolia, Russia (partially)

The body that represents some of the world's largest cruise ship operators, the Cruise Lines International Association, announced on Monday that passengers and crew members who had recently travelled to China would not be allowed to board vessels.''

 

[Amonet]

After reading this post over the weekend I watched Chen Qiushi's youtube video(s) and all I can say is wow.

Here is an article from Australia:

‘We will admit them if they’re dying’

That's awful! So there's another reason the death rate is going to be higher in Wuhan....hospital facilities are overrun But it also adds confirmation to the suspicion that there are a lot more overall cases than confirmed cases. Not due to trying to 'fix' the numbers, but because of being too overwhelmed to get *everyone* tested if they're not already showing relatively severe symptoms.

The two new hospitals seem like a drop in the ocean compared to the current cases in Hubei

 

[margarita25]

(Phone is working now, thanks again @dotr for pulling the links on my behalf)

 

[Alyce]

One of the coach drivers who was pictured without a protective suit or mask has revealed that he wasn't worried and was simply 'doing his duty'.

Although their coach firm said the drivers had been advised to 'self-isolate' at home for two weeks as a precaution, they were seen mingling with the public in a hotel bar the next day.

The drivers had been put up in a Travelodge in Birkenhead for at least two nights while they waited for their coaches to undergo a deep clean. They were seen leaving the hotel, and socialising in the bar of a hotel opposite.

The driver is quoted as saying
It didn't bother me. 'If I was wearing a hazmat suit I wouldn't be able to drive that sort of distance.
I've been told I won't get ill, and I believe that.'

Yesterday,Reading-based Horseman Coaches, said government officials had told them the risk to the drivers was 'almost non-existent'.


'I wasn't worried!' says evacuee driver who was pictured without a protective suit or mask | Daily Mail Online

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

SARS Stung the Global Economy. The Coronavirus Is a Greater Menace.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Pakistan resumes China flights

Pakistan has resumed direct flights with China for all Chinese and Pakistani airlines after further review following a suspension on Friday due to the coronavirus outbreak.

According to Pakistan’s health ministry, Standard Operating Procedures have been set up to deal with the virus at the airport. Pakistan currently has no confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the country.

Coronavirus death toll now higher than SARS in mainland China - live updates - CNN

 

[dotr]

Wuhan turns to social media to vent anger at coronavirus response
''Residents of virus-hit city accuse government of withholding information and downplaying severity of viral outbreak.
by Shawn Yuan
an hour ago''
''The rapidly spreading virus has stretched the healthcare systems in Hubei, with some medical personnel saying China's government was completely unprepared for the outbreak and describing its response as chaotic.

But when Jianguo turned on his television on January 28, he was greeted by television anchors hailing the government's "transparent and swift" response and videos of Wuhan residents joyfully expressing faith in the Chinese Communist Party to contain the virus.''

"Are you seeing the news? Are they serious?" he recalled telling his son. "Doctors and nurses at my hospital are so exhausted that they are on the edge of breaking down. And those people who look so happy on camera - are they living in a different universe?"

Jianguo's son immediately posted a message on his Weibo account, along with a picture from the hospital of doctors and nurses sleeping on chairs in apparent exhaustion. "I don't care what CCTV is saying," he wrote, referring to Chinese state television. "But the situation in Wuhan is still dire."

''China has tightly controlled the coverage of the outbreak, according to Human Rights Watch, which on January 30 accused Chinese authorities of withholding information from the public, under-reporting cases of infection and downplaying the severity of the infection. The New York-based rights group said Chinese police have harassed people on allegations of "spreading rumours" about the outbreak, including the detention of a doctor who had warned colleagues that the new virus was similar to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which had killed 349 people and infected 5,300 others in mainland China in 2003.''

 

[dixiegirl1035]

@JerseyGirl posted on last thread that there was going to be a flight out to Italy. It did happen, and it shows they did indeed go to a military base via an Italian Military Plane. Haven't seen anything in MSM about the post flight yet

Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV


Italian Airforce #1423 ✈ 03-Feb-2020 ✈ WUH / ZHHH - LIRE ✈ FlightAware