Discussion Thread #61 ~ the appeal~

[mrjitty]

I know it seems like Nel should have produced a timeline - but it would not have changed the result in my view.

A prosecutor has to engage in the heart of the case - which was around OPs direct testimony.

Getting down in the weeds with Roux only helps the defence

Man shoots girlfriend, people hear her screaming, he offers highly implausible explanation, contradicted by numerous evidence points.

Seasoned Attorney's i have spoken with expected the Judge to simply dismiss OP's testimony as unreliable - and thus look at what was left.

That is a fairly standard approach.

What is a strange approach is to find him highly unreliable - then prefer his version to multiple witnesses for no apparent reason.

hard for a prosecutor to cope with that!

 

[Interested Bystander]

Just to point out that only 1 witness heard 1-3 bangs (Burger, inside and far away), all the others heard either more (5-6, Johnson outside on the balcony) or three bangs only (the Stipps) or heard 4 in quick succession (Mrs VdM). The ballistics were unclear about what happened - you have just taken the opinion of the state ballistics expert and ignored that of the defense.

Still, I like your suggestion for discussion

BIB

[video=youtube;8bSAI9dCTaM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bSAI9dCTaM[/video]


If one starts listening at 3 minutes 30 seconds Burger says that just after 3am she heard screams. It must have been several minutes later that they heard the shots as her husband had spoken to the security guard from their old address and he also repeated the story to another guard. Soon after that she heard 4 shots, bang....bang, bang, bang.

Timing is always difficult. In our house four clocks all say something different. They are within 3-4 minutes of each other but we don't bother to correct them and I honestly could not say which one is correct. I think it is possible that Johnson's time is incorrect by a minute or two. It would be very easy for Johnson's time of 03.17 to have been 03.15 if he is not obsessive about keeping the absolutely correct time. He probably never checked to see whether the time on his phone was, in fact, correct. I don't know if mine is.

 

[GR_Turner]

Yes I have taken the view of the Prosecution's ballistics expert because I thought the Defence's expert was roundly rubbished.

So was the state's ballistics expert. He had a bullet on a downwards trajectory leaping upwards and into the toilet. I thought they were probably both wrong actually but that Wolmarans was right that there are a number of possibilities and no one can be sure. You must also assume that Mrs VdM was wrong in her evidence about the shots.

 

[LemonMousse]

Don't disagree with any of that

Tsk...to MrJitty again. Bit tired, sorry.

 

[GR_Turner]

BIB

[video=youtube;8bSAI9dCTaM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bSAI9dCTaM[/video]


If one starts listening at 3 minutes 30 seconds Burger says that just after 3am she heard screams. It must have been several minutes later that they heard the shots as her husband had spoken to the security guard from their old address and he also repeated the story to another guard. Soon after that she heard 4 shots, bang....bang, bang, bang.

Timing is always difficult. In our house four clocks all say something different. They are within 3-4 minutes of each other but we don't bother to correct them and I honestly could not say which one is correct. I think it is possible that Johnson's time is incorrect by a minute or two. It would be very easy for Johnson's time of 03.17 to have been 03.15 if he is not obsessive about keeping the absolutely correct time. He probably never checked to see whether the time on his phone was, in fact, correct. I don't know if mine is.

It might be wrong but we only know that the state and defence both accepted it. If it's just an unreliable number plucked out of nowhere then that's an odd thing for the state to have done.

 

[mrjitty]

It doesn't all fall into place though. The first shots were never explained in any way by the state but were by the defense. The close neighbours weren't woken by a woman screaming or the first bangs but someone 170m away was? The Stipps directly across from the open bathroom window heard nothing after the second bangs even though the state accepted that OP was crying very loudly in the bathroom.

On defences own version Mr N sleeps through the gunshots, and then despite being awake he doesn't hear the cricket bats.

So it seems either way - this is basically possible.

Meanwhile his wife who is hearing OP clear as a bell - doesn't hear any cricket bats.

So again - it is the defences version that a man 170m away is hearing "gunshots" while the neighbours don't hear anything!

total nonsense!

 

[Interested Bystander]

Both versions have problems with people not hearing things they should have imo.

Johnson was woken either by the first bangs (though he mightn't have realised it) or by the screaming. He was around 170m away. All 4 close neighbours slept through something that could wake someone 170m away and that must have been as loud as a jumbo jet taking off if Reeva were screaming from within the toilet, as she must have been on the state's version.

The close neighbours on both sides heard very loud male cries after the shots which must have been coming from the bedroom and bathroom in OP's house, but the Stipps heard absolutely nothing. The Stipps were by this point were wide awake, must have been listening intently for further sounds, were in direct line with the open bathroom window and heard everything very clearly up to this point.

Given the loudness of all the sounds as described by both sets of neighbours, this is astonishing deafness on both parts imo if the state's case it true.

I think the immediate neighbours' windows were closed and the air conditioning and fans were on whereas the Stipps and Burgers windows were open. I am sure I have seen this in print somewhere. I will try to find it. I hadn't realised before today that Van de Merwe's bedroom was at the back of her house. That is why she looked over towards Farm Inn for the noise.

 

[LemonMousse]

It doesn't all fall into place though. The first shots were never explained in any way by the state but were by the defense. The close neighbours weren't woken by a woman screaming or the first bangs but someone 170m away was? The Stipps directly across from the open bathroom window heard nothing after the second bangs even though the state accepted that OP was crying very loudly in the bathroom.

The "first shots"? You mean the first sounds.

The defence did not explain them...they asserted without evidence. This is not an explanation.

The prosecution had no evidence for what the first sounds actually were. I imagine they fully suspected what they were...OP scaring Reeva with the bat (and indeed, Nel asked Batman if that were possible) but without actual evidence, how could they prove it? It amazes me that people think Nel and Andrea Johnson should have consulted their crystal balls and magicked up an explanation for what happened that night! They weren't there so how would they know? They can only go by what the evidence suggests and that was sketchy.

One person knows and he got up on the stand and lied through his teeth.

Only the Stipps heard the first bangs.
The entire neighbourhood (including dogs) heard the second.

Gunshots are about 1000 times louder than any sound a bat can make on a door.

Simple logic...which is the sound most likely to wake up a neighbourhood...the quieter one or the louder one?

Since the louder set was the second set, then it's pretty blooming obvious that that must have been the gunshots.

 

[mrjitty]

It might be wrong but we only know that the state and defence both accepted it. If it's just an unreliable number plucked out of nowhere then that's an odd thing for the state to have done.

It was the witnesses own testimony! Nel does not pluck anything.

Judge, Nel and Roux are all aware of lack of exhibit to support it (or maybe existence of said exhibit).

It's only us that are in the dark about it.

Nel made these very points in his closing

Believe it or not, judges don't need every little thing spelled out for them.

 

[mrjitty]

The "first shots"? You mean the first sounds.

The defence did not explain them...they asserted without evidence. This is not an explanation.

The prosecution had no evidence for what the first sounds actually were. I imagine they fully suspected what they were...OP scaring Reeva with the bat (and indeed, Nel asked Batman if that were possible) but without actual evidence, how could they prove it? It amazes me that people think Nel and Andrea Johnson should have consulted their crystal balls and magicked up an explanation for what happened that night! They weren't there so how would they know? They can only go by what the evidence suggests and that was sketchy.

One person knows and he got up on the stand and lied through his teeth.

Only the Stipps heard the first bangs.
The entire neighbourhood (including dogs) heard the second.

Gunshots are about 1000 times louder than any sound a bat can make on a door.

Simple logic...which is the sound most likely to wake up a neighbourhood...the quieter one or the louder one?

Since the louder set was the second set, then it's pretty blooming obvious that that must have been the gunshots.

Bravo!

Seriously there never was any obligation on Nel to prove what the different sounds were.

All he ever needed to do was show OP had no plausible explanation for what went down.

Some people place such unrealistic demands on what prosecution ought to have to show.

Such a burden is impossible to discharge

The Court should ask what facts it accepts. What facts are more likely?

Then looking at all those facts - has case been proved beyond reasonable doubt?

Instead this gets turned into something like "was it a woman screaming beyond reasonable doubt?"

This is why the Statement of Appeal contests Masipa's handling of the circumstantial evidence.

It is also why Appeal claims OP cannot offer two contradictory defences.

 

[mrjitty]

Don't disagree with any of that

Tsk...to MrJitty again. Bit tired, sorry.

See you for the appeal!

 

[Interested Bystander]

So was the state's ballistics expert. He had a bullet on a downwards trajectory leaping upwards and into the toilet. I thought they were probably both wrong actually but that Wolmarans was right that there are a number of possibilities and no one can be sure. You must also assume that Mrs VdM was wrong in her evidence about the shots.

I must be tired. I have lost you. Why must I assume that Mrs VdM was wrong in evidence?

 

[LemonMousse]

Doesn't it strike the Pistorians as somewhat odd and fantastical that Pistorious managed to sound exactly like a woman about to be murdered at precisely the same time that a woman was murdered in his bathroom?

I mean.....seriously?

 

[mrjitty]

BTW

Stipps did hear the man shouting for help after the final shots IIRC

 

[mrjitty]

Doesn't it strike the Pistorians as somewhat odd and fantastical that Pistorious managed to sound exactly like a woman about to be murdered at precisely the same time that a woman was murdered in his bathroom?

I mean.....seriously?

LOL

I think the biggest giveaway in his EIC was that he needed to be screaming like a woman before the first shots, after the first shots, and during the second shots, in order to cover all bases!

 

[mrjitty]

Its interesting now I have gone thru Fossils most recent timeline, just how well it all does fit together, once you realise there is no exhibit for Johnson's call times.

Roux actually goes further than I had noticed.

When Johnson asks Roux if Roux has the central telephone records, Roux does not actually say yes he does. He just says he has the records for OPs call times.

So from this we can deduce that the only 'evidence' of Johnsons call times is his notes.

But these are strictly hearsay - evidence only of what time Johnson thought it was.

The only primary evidence would have been the telephone company records or extracted data from Johnson's phone.

My guess is that the State simply didn't obtain this info.

The other thing is we have another clock - of the Stipp's.

This clock does not fit with the defence version - which is why Masipa changes the time by 10mins for no logical reason

However this clock fits brilliantly with everything else, once you understand how unreliable Johnson's timings are.

Especially I find the N's to be powerful witnesses - once you realise they slept thru the murder.

This is why they never hear Reeva, and why Mr N never hears any shots.

By the time his wife wakes him up a couple of mins prior to 3.16 - there is nothing more to hear except OP crying and calling for help.

 

[Trotterly]

What happened to AJ?

 

[GR_Turner]

On defences own version Mr N sleeps through the gunshots, and then despite being awake he doesn't hear the cricket bats.

So it seems either way - this is basically possible.

Meanwhile his wife who is hearing OP clear as a bell - doesn't hear any cricket bats.

So again - it is the defences version that a man 170m away is hearing "gunshots" while the neighbours don't hear anything!

total nonsense!

I think it's a mistake to assume that we understand how sound was travelling that night. That bats could sound like gunshots was a surprise. I suspect that the acoustics in the bathroom and bats strikes right next to an open window might explain why they were heard by the more distant neighbours while the sounds were drowned out by the crying for the close neighbours. Still, that's just speculation.

However, if we are bringing in other reasons to think that one side or the other might be right, that the Stipps' housekeeper gave an affidavit to the police saying she heard a baby/female crying (not screaming) and then 3 bangs that night does suggest that what was heard and how it was interpreted may have varied by the position of the hearers.

 

[GR_Turner]

Its interesting now I have gone thru Fossils most recent timeline, just how well it all does fit together, once you realise there is no exhibit for Johnson's call times.

Roux actually goes further than I had noticed.

When Johnson asks Roux if Roux has the central telephone records, Roux does not actually say yes he does. He just says he has the records for OPs call times.

So from this we can deduce that the only 'evidence' of Johnsons call times is his notes.

But these are strictly hearsay - evidence only of what time Johnson thought it was.

The only primary evidence would have been the telephone company records or extracted data from Johnson's phone.

My guess is that the State simply didn't obtain this info.

The other thing is we have another clock - of the Stipp's.

This clock does not fit with the defence version - which is why Masipa changes the time by 10mins for no logical reason

However this clock fits brilliantly with everything else, once you understand how unreliable Johnson's timings are.

Especially I find the N's to be powerful witnesses - once you realise they slept thru the murder.

This is why they never hear Reeva, and why Mr N never hears any shots.

By the time his wife wakes him up a couple of mins prior to 3.16 - there is nothing more to hear except OP crying and calling for help.

One has to wonder why the state didn't obtain Johnson's phone records or Stipp's indeed if that's the case. It's like them not calling Botha. They seemed more interested in getting a conviction than putting all the evidence before the court. You don't explain how Stipp's evidence fits together with the phones evidence. Perhaps Roux just made up the 3.17 10111 call time and Nel let him?

 

[GR_Turner]

Have you considered the implications that are raised if that wasn't Reeva's voice?

Presumably you don't think that Mrs VDM imagined the whole thing, or is a liar? She was irritated at being kept awake by the voice and worried about her son's exam the next day.

Whatever happened, SOME woman was speaking in a loud voice in the vicinity and the other party was not heard. So, your objection is not really relevant to anything. And if it was another woman, why has she not come forward? There really cannot have been that many women nearby up at 2 am talking loudly enough to keep someone in another house awake.

There are umpteen reasons why only one half of an argument might be heard...the most obvious being that the arguers were apart somehow, in different rooms or parts of the house. If Reeva had locked OP out of the bedroom and they were arguing through the door, then it would be very easy for Mrs VDM to just hear one side. The3 bedroom window was open, while none of them in the centre of the house were.

Bit silly to conclude that there was no arguing because only one voice was heard. Someone was arguing with someone near Mrs VDM's house that night and it's quite an amazing coincidence that yet another woman ended up being murdered in the same street an hour later.

If they were in the bedroom arguing, surely Mrs Stipp would have heard too but she heard nothing. There are lots of explanations. A loud tv, someone on the phone phoning someone abroad, hence the 2am call. Someone having a fight with a lover which they wouldn't admit to anyone in case their husband found out. Could be anything.