Ebola outbreak - general thread #8

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  • #441
No, of course not. It's not like "the first presence of any symptoms" somehow zaps everyone in the vicinity or who wanders by with ebola.

From what we have seen in US cases, the first symptom is the fever.

But the only way to get Ebola is to have someone vomit on you, bleed on you, share spit with you, have sex with you or get fecal matter on you when they have a high viral load, and do so in a way where it gets into your blood. That's based on data going back to 1975 from outbreaks in the Congo, Uganda, Sudan, Gabon, Ivory Coast, South Africa, not to mention current experience in the United States, Spain and other nations.

Plus, is there even a high enough viral load (yet) at that first sign to transmit the disease? From what we've seen so far with these cases being played out where we can observe the process, it sure doesn't look like it.

Dead bodies are highly infectious. They don't vomit on you, bleed on you, share spit with you, or have sex with you. All you have to do is touch them.
 
  • #442
State health officials say the 33-year-old has been 'symptom free' for 24 hours. But Hickox denies she ever showed symptoms of Ebola after returning from Sierra Leone and blasted the policy instituted by Gov. Chris Christie.

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-sty...ased-n-quarantine-officials-article-1.1988481


Governor Christie @GovChristie · 33m 33 minutes ago

"Because she had symptoms, she was subsequently transferred to University Hospital..." (cont) @NJDeptofhealth


Governor Christie @GovChristie · 33m 33 minutes ago

“The patient was initially found to have no symptoms, but later developed a fever.” @NJDeptofhealth

https://twitter.com/GovChristie

Christie's people need to get a handle on what is going on. Geeze.
 
  • #443
Wonder how many HCW that cared for Ebola patients in Africa have returned to the U.S. over the years? That number would be significant.
 
  • #444
No, of course not. It's not like "the first presence of any symptoms" somehow zaps everyone in the vicinity or who wanders by with ebola.

From what we have seen in US cases, the first symptom is the fever.

But the only way to get Ebola is to have someone vomit on you, bleed on you, share spit with you, have sex with you or get fecal matter on you when they have a high viral load, and do so in a way where it gets into your blood. That's based on data going back to 1975 from outbreaks in the Congo, Uganda, Sudan, Gabon, Ivory Coast, South Africa, not to mention current experience in the United States, Spain and other nations.

Plus, is there even a high enough viral load (yet) at that first sign to transmit the disease? From what we've seen so far with these cases being played out where we can observe the process, it sure doesn't look like it.

What I meant by that was, aren't you contagious when symptoms present? In that case, the first minute you present symptoms would be "too late" in that, you are contagious, and could infect others. Is that not correct? I could be missing something, here. I mean, I understand that there has to be some transfer of body fluids taking place, in whatever capacity. But before you exhibit symptoms, if body fluids get transmitted, it's ok.
I know the chances seem miniscule, and I really admire those people who can put this all in better perspective than I can.
 
  • #445
  • #446
Wonder how many HCW that cared for Ebola patients in Africa have returned to the U.S. over the years? That number would be significant.

Good point. So either the training is not as good or the strain is much more virulent.
 
  • #447
Good point. So either the training is not as good or the strain is much more virulent.

Previous outbrakes were in rural areas. They were small. This is a very large outbreak. Meaning many more patients.
 
  • #448
In any case, this knee-jerk manner of quarantine is expensive, unnecessary, and unsustainable. Toronto quarantined 23,000 people during the SARS outbreak. How will a large scale quarantine be managed in NY or NJ? It's hard for me to imagine that any qualified health authorities were involved in the decision to quarantine individuals in such an absurd manner.

I understand your concern. In the case of the Presby Dallas HCW, they were offered the option of isolating at the hospital (or Hospitel, as the case may be), or at home. They are on a no fly list and cannot take public transportation I believe and were asked not to leave the state, IIRC. But they have not been forcibly quarantined.
 
  • #449
Just jumping off your post

City Department of Health officials said “as a further precaution” a team of so-called “disease detectives” is now tracing all of the young boy’s contacts “to identify anyone who may be at potential risk.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york...ted-ebola-bellevue-hospital-article-1.1988468

Something very strange her. Child apparently arrived in the hospital with no symptoms. Why was he taken into a hospital? Now he developed fever.
 
  • #450
Dead bodies are highly infectious. They don't vomit on you, bleed on you, share spit with you, or have sex with you. All you have to do is touch them.

We're talking about early symptoms, and how to catch the disease at that point, and I would suggest that "dead body" is neither an early symptom nor the same level of viral load as when we see the first symptom(s).
 
  • #451
Something very strange her. Child apparently arrived in the hospital with no symptoms. Why was he taken into a hospital? Now he developed fever.

NEW YORK CITY — A child was being tested for Ebola and had developed a fever Monday after recently returning to the city from one of the West African countries reeling from the deadly epidemic, officials say.

BBM. Fever after being in a location where ebola was present.

http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/201...ola-as-doctors-condition-improves-report-says
 
  • #452
Interesting. Looks like the tent system at the NJ hospital had been approved by the CDC

https://twitter.com/GovChristie

Appears that way:


Governor Christie @GovChristie · 1h 1 hour ago

"...that was recently toured and evaluated by the CDC." @NJDeptofhealth


Governor Christie @GovChristie · 1h 1 hour ago

"She was cared for in a monitored area of the hospital with an advanced tenting system..." (cont) @NJDeptofhealth
 
  • #453
I asked this earlier upthread --maybe someone with an advanced knowledge of how this virus works could answer:
She may be showing no symptoms now, but *could* she show symptoms in the next few days? I feel like that's a stupid question...as in, 'heck, no...if she could show symptoms in the next few days, they'd never have released her from quarantine!'

The way I understand it, and I could be mistaken, she just returned from the field. So....isn't she still capable of showing symptoms?

Thanks for any info!

Of course she is. And like Nina Pham did, she can call up her designated contact and request to be transported to the hospital. In early ebola, they are not hemorrhaging, so there is no danger to the public in that kind of scenario. You are not a teeming cesspool of ebola the minute you begin showing symptoms, if no one is exposed to her body fluids, there is no threat. Her showing symptoms and being put into isolation immediately would not show that it was a "mistake" to send her home to self monitor. The Bellevue hospital employees, the NIH employees, the Nebraska employees, and Emory employees have taken care of ebola patients, and they are not self isolating, simply self monitoring. If one of them begins to run a fever or experience flu like symptoms, they too can get to the hospital immediately without endangering the public.
 
  • #454
  • #455
  • #456
NEW YORK CITY — A child was being tested for Ebola and had developed a fever Monday after recently returning to the city from one of the West African countries reeling from the deadly epidemic, officials say.

BBM. Fever after being in a location where ebola was present.

http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/201...ola-as-doctors-condition-improves-report-says

But he was taken to the hospital on Sunday. Why was he taken to the hospital before symptoms developed?

"The boy was transported to Bellevue Hospital Sunday night because of his travel history and initial reports that he had a fever, but he actually had no symptoms when he first arrived at the hospital, officials said. "
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/year-boy-tested-ebola-nyc-hospital/story?id=26478362
 
  • #457
Previous outbrakes were in rural areas. They were small. This is a very large outbreak. Meaning many more patients.

And that also means more HCW over there in the affected countries. And more of them getting infected. And more of them returning -- to the U.S. or whatever their home country. And more of them returning already infected with ebola.

I see the arguments for not quarantining returning HCWs. There are very valid arguments, particularly the likelihood that quarantining will reduce the number of HCWs who are willing and able to go to the affected countries, with the greater likelihood that the disease will spread even more in those countries.

At the same, I see the value in quarantining at least the high-risk groups -- such as HCWs who have been treating ebola patients -- when they return here. We really really don't want ebola spreading in the U.S.

I don't know what the best course of action is.

I know that I don't trust the politicians and bureaucrats to make these decisions without regard for the political ramifications.

And I know that quarantining that nurse in a tent with no running water and no flushable toilet is just stupid.
 
  • #458
  • #459
What I meant by that was, aren't you contagious when symptoms present? In that case, the first minute you present symptoms would be "too late" in that, you are contagious, and could infect others. Is that not correct? I could be missing something, here. I mean, I understand that there has to be some transfer of body fluids taking place, in whatever capacity. But before you exhibit symptoms, if body fluids get transmitted, it's ok.
I know the chances seem miniscule, and I really admire those people who can put this all in better perspective than I can.

What they say is that before you show symptoms, you are NOT contagious and cannot infect anyone. But that doesn't mean that the moment you have the first symptom, you are automatically and definitely contagious.

From what we have observed, where no one has caught it other than exposure at the tail end of someone else's sickness, it gives the appearance that the risk really doesn't begin for some time thereafter, when the viral load has increased significantly.

I find it feasible - and prudent - if the publicized caution point using "onset of symptoms" still has a margin of error of quite some time, epidemiologically. When the first symptom shows, that's the time to begin to take huge precautions, but it's possible that doing so at that point is somewhat of an overkill, for safety's sake and to make a clear and easy line in the sand.
 
  • #460
That does look very promising. Not helpful at this moment, but certainly impressive, not only for treating ebola, but any number of other diseases.

Ebola is a viral infection. Narrator said device is for bacterial infection.
 
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