Lanie, I hope you don't mind me copying over your theory to this thread. I was working on a theory and reading yours helped me to join the dots.
Respectfully snipped.
Not at all. Glad I could be of assistance. :blushing:
I'll flesh my theory out since this is the theory thread. Everything I post here is MOO, and I am taking some liberties with what I think is true, seeing as most of what is out there is not what I would consider reliably verified.
I do believe Ron abused Crystal, and his other baby mama, and also Misty. I also think Haleigh was the apple of her daddy's eye, and he adored her. Misty is jealous of the attention Ron pays to Haleigh, but she takes care of her to keep Ron happy. Then Misty tells Ron she thinks she is pregnant. Ron beats her up. Misty leaves and goes on a 3-day party binge. Ron gets in contact with her, tells her he's sorry, baby, he still loves her, all is forgiven. Misty is still carrying a grudge, but agrees to come back.
Sometime not too far back from when all this happens, Ron has done something to somebody, for example, stole some drugs, or guns, or whatever, to someone unrelated to the main players in this case. Misty knows what happened.
That day, Ron goes to work, leaving Misty with the children. Tommy comes by with his kids, and he and Misty visit while the kids play. Misty tells Tommy what has gone on between her and Ron. Tommy wants some payback, and so does Misty. They make a plan, which includes JO, to steal some of Ron's stuff, his guns, his dope stash, whatever, while Ron is at work, and later, after the kids are asleep.
JO takes Timmy's van after they go to bed, gets Tommy, and they go to Misty's. I think they get wasted, and Misty is griping about Haleigh, and then either Haleigh wakes up or they actually go get her out of bed. Maybe they slap her around a little bit or something, and then realize she is going to tell Ron, and they get scared, and decide they have to kill her. So at least JO and Tommy take Haleigh to the river and throw her in, and yes, she may still have been alive at that point. They swear to each other to never reveal what happened. Tommy and JO leave.
Misty waits for Ron to get home, and she tells him the people he pizzed off came in the middle of the night and threatened to kill her and took Haleigh, and she would have fought, but they were threatening to kill Jr., too. She says they told her they are taking her to teach him a lesson, and will let him have her back soon. They make a quick agreement not to tell LE, then do the 911 call, but Ron is still angry at Misty and is cussing her. Sometime between then and the next day, I think Misty tells him they also raped her, just to guilt-trip him. Now he feels responsible for Haleigh, and for Misty.
At some point he relays this whole sordid mess to his mother and grandmother, and that is why they are so pro-Misty, too. When Misty fails LDT after LDT, to Ron it is because she is lying to protect Haleigh. When everyone is bashing Misty, he protects her, because he thinks he knows "the real story". He marries her because he feels guilty for what happened to her, but as time goes by, he starts to think Haleigh is dead and he's not going to get her back, and he loses his protectiveness towards her a little bit.
They get in a fight, Misty calls family, family comes, more fighting, family (Tommy) calls LE, Ron gets arrested, shortly after that Tommy gets a rat in his mailbox, relating to that incident, not Haleigh.
I think maybe, just maybe, in the past month or so, Ron finally realizes how badly he has been played.
Anyway, this is the only thing I could come up with that explains things the way I see them, so feel free to punch holes.