General Theories and Motives Rehashed #1

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Ron said HaLeigh loved on him and would be waiting to see him when he got home from work and I wonder if the opposite occurred. I wonder if Ron told HaLeigh when he picked her up by himself at the bus stop Monday that he planned to punish her when he returned from work for bedwetting or some other type of "accident".
Ron could have told HaLeigh during the drive from the bus stop to the trailer that he planned to take her when he got off work and make her pay for what she had done. What if Ron returned home Monday evening, entered the trailer, unlocked the back doors, turned on the kitchen light, grabbed HaLeigh from her bed, disappeared into the woods and carried out his plan. Ron concealed his plan from Misty so she doesn't know what happened.
 
This is a crazy theory, but it's something that I've kind of thought about. Have any of you all ever seen a movie called Fargo? It was about a husband who arranged his wife's kidnapping & then it went completely awry. Ron was in trouble for Haleigh's attendance & tardies, owed back rent, etc...just suppose he decided a quick way to buy some time & garner some sympathy, was a kidnapping. It goes as planned until the media swoops in, Geraldo & others start questioning his lifestyle , & he & his partners panic, because he knows he will have a lot of questions to answer, if Haleigh is dropped off. He also knows that she will tell who's been hiding her. so, the plan goes awry, & Ron gets his tattoo. This would explain everyone's confidence that Haleigh was coming home-Ron was confident & convinced them. Ron getting in trouble for the school attendance, has really bugged me. He would not take kindly to being held accountable, & being judged. It wouldn't fit in with his perfect dad persona. yeah, this is a crazy theory, but no crazier than Haleigh being murdered over a gun.
 
Ron said HaLeigh loved on him and would be waiting to see him when he got home from work and I wonder if the opposite occurred. I wonder if Ron told HaLeigh when he picked her up by himself at the bus stop Monday that he planned to punish her when he returned from work for bedwetting or some other type of "accident".
Ron could have told HaLeigh during the drive from the bus stop to the trailer that he planned to take her when he got off work and make her pay for what she had done. What if Ron returned home Monday evening, entered the trailer, unlocked the back doors, turned on the kitchen light, grabbed HaLeigh from her bed, disappeared into the woods and carried out his plan. Ron concealed his plan from Misty so she doesn't know what happened.

Omg, this is too horrible! I hope this is no where near what happened to Haleigh. :eek:

:banghead:
 
This is OT but I wasn't sure where else to put it. I think it would help understand more about how LDT's, how the analysts can effect the results, and how the questions can cause problems.

It is a discussion on JVM on May 19, 2010 the other night in another case regarding a difference of views by experts on the LDT results. I'm just copying the pertitent parts of the transcript regarding the LDT results only.


******Video Clip

DR. PHIL MCGRAW, TV HOST: Two relevant questions, are you responsible for Julie`s disappearance? And did you cause Julie`s disappearance during the month of March?

He answered no to both of those, and it came back that that was deceptive.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What did you do?

GEORGE DE LA CRUZ, JULIE ANN GONZALEZ`S HUSBAND: I didn`t do nothing. I didn`t do anything. I just felt that I should have stopped her.

MCGRAW: Jack feels that he knew what the question was about and that he`s not telling the truth here.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Please tell the truth.

DE LA CRUZ: I did tell the truth. I don`t know nothing.
************
VELEZ-MITCHELL: More questions than answers tonight about this case. Are police any closer to finding Julie?

I want to welcome my fantastic panel. Criminal profiler Pat Brown, again author of the new book "The Profiler". You`ve got to check it out. Jack Trimarco, polygraph examiner with us tonight. He is the gentleman who administered the test to George de la Cruz. We`re delighted to have you sir.

************

VELEZ-MITCHELL: George`s attorney told us, quote, "Obviously polygraphs are not admissible in court because they are not reliable. My client has complied from the beginning. He had nothing to do with the disappearance of his wife."

Jack, you`re the man who administered the polygraph. It is possible that lingering guilt over his broken marriage, guilt over allowing Julie to walk out that day, that those feelings could have caused George to fail on these two questions: "Are you responsible for her disappearance? And did you cause her disappearance?"

JAMES TRIMARCO, POLYGRAPH EXAMINER: No, the short answer to that, Jane, is no. The questions were formulated to get to the heart of the question, and that is responsibility. The term responsibility and disappearance were both explained to him, which he said he understood explicitly.

And what he`s doing is he`s throwing me a bone. He wanted me to be happy with this bone that he felt some type of responsibility because he did not let her stay with him and that he should have protected her. Well, that`s not at all what was going on in that life.

That having been said, it was a wonderful two-hour polygraph test that came to the right conclusion despite what his defense attorney might say.

VELEZ-MITCHELL: And what is the conclusion that you came to?

TRIMARCO: That he was deceptive to the relevant issue of having been responsible for Julie`s disappearance.
**************
....
VELEZ-MITCHELL: I have to ask you a question Pat Brown, criminal profiler. When George was on our show ISSUES and he sat there and the family was also on the show and he talked and talked, a lot of us said well, you know he doesn`t seemed guilty to us because he`s so talkative and he`s open about it and he`s showing up on our show and willing to answer questions.

What do you make of that?

PAT BROWN, CRIMINAL PROFILER: Well, he either thinks he`s in a big reality show and he`s very arrogant and thinks it`s funny and he`s going to get away with it because he obviously is a good person of interest or he really is innocent.

And I want to mention the polygraph here, I`m not happy with those two questions. I`m sorry. Those are the kind of questions I don`t think should be there. They are vague questions, he could be responsible in some way, he could have felt it caused in some way. Why didn`t they just ask the question, did you kill your wife? Did you dump her body?

SOTO: Exactly.

BROWN: You can`t blow those.

TRIMARCO: Well, let me respond to that.

VELEZ-MITCHELL: All right, Jack. Yes.

TRIMARCO: Let me respond to that. Pat, I respect your abilities as a profiler, as I am also a retired profiler, but my duties in this case was as a polygraph examiner. So far be it from me to criticize your profiling skills.

My -- the reason we didn`t ask George if he killed his wife is, because we don`t know that she`s dead.


BROWN: Yes, but if you asked him that he can either say yes or no and it`ll be a simple answer. If he didn`t have anything to do with her disappearance or death --

TRIMARCO: We don`t know that she`s dead and so that`s --

BROWN: It doesn`t matter.

TRIMARCO: -- an inappropriate issue.

It does -- it does matter. She`s disappearing, she`s disappeared. She`s not around. And so --


BROWN: If he did something to her --

VELEZ-MITCHELL: Hold on, one at a time.

JAMES TRIMARCO, POLYGRAPH EXAMINER: We don`t know if she`s alive or if she`s dead.

BROWN: If he did something, she`s dead. That`s a simple reality. If he did something, she`s dead.

TRIMARCO: You stick to profiling and I`ll stick to polygraph.

VELEZ-MITCHELL: Ok. One at a time.

BROWN: Ok.

VELEZ-MITCHELL: Ok. Listen, I want to get both of your sides of the story but the viewers have told us they can`t understand anybody when both people are talking at once.

All right. I think it`s a fascinating question and, you know, I have to wonder and give you something to think about for the other side of the break, let`s say some of the other big, famous suspects, would we ask them that question? On the other side.

**************
TRIMARCO: Jane, I would. Before we started crossing professional lines there, I wanted to say that the first series of questions had to do with responsibility for her disappearance which were both disappearance and responsibility were defined to my satisfaction by George. He understood what those terms meant.

He failed the exam. He admitted that he had responsibility. He said it was out of guilt. He said he knew the polygraph worked, and at that point, Dr. Phil and I asked him if he would then take a second test with the question, did you kill Julie? And he said he wouldn`t take that test.


VELEZ-MITCHELL: All right. Well, let me just say a couple of things. One, he is not considered a suspect or even a person of interest. He has not been charged with anything and certainly he deserves the presumption of innocence.

*******

VELEZ-MITCHELL: I`m going to given you last word, Pat Brown. We do have to give him the presumption of innocence. 30 seconds.

BROWN: Well, he certainly does have issues obviously with his ex there. He should be a person of interest. No question about it. But I`m going to say, still, the polygraph was not adequate in my opinion to make a decision on. So no. That`s why it doesn`t go in court.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1005/19/ijvm.01.html

************

I found this discussion interesting because iof what the LDT analyst is saying and what George is saying, it is not hard to understand why George would fail the polygragh.

The LDT guy says several times that he explained to DeLaCruz what the LDT's analyst's definitions of disappearance and responsibility were and that DeLaCruz understood those definitions to the LDT's analysts satisfaction.

DeLaCruz says he did tell the truth but the LDT analysts says he answered deceptively.

My question is whose truth did DeLaCruz tell? Did DeLaCruz answer truthfully according to the LDT analyst's definitions? Just because DeLaCruz may have understood the LDT analyst's definitions of disappearance and responsibility, does make those defintions his truth, his belief. So do you answer truthfully according to what they tell you is the truth when you do not believe it to be true or do you answer according to your truth.

If DeLaCruz answered truthfully according to his truth, he would have made himself look guilty because it might have showed he was telling the truth. "Are you responsible for Julie's disappearance?" Yes - truth. No way this LDT analyst would let him explain. So either way DeLaCruz was in trouble by taking this LDT.

The LDT analyst told us that he would not have let DeLaCruz explain his answer to the question:

"And what he`s doing is he`s throwing me a bone. He wanted me to be happy with this bone that he felt some type of responsibility because he did not let her stay with him and that he should have protected her"

The LDT analyst discounted DeLaCruz's explanation because DeLaCruz's defintion of responsibility was not the LDT analysts. DeLaCruz did not believe what he was answering truthfully because he had a different definition of the terms so it showed deception.

**************
That has always been my question with Misty failing all those tests. Even if Misty did tell the truth, if she did not believe it was true, I would think it would show deception.
 
One of the things that I can't stand about this case is the way LE has treated Misty. I know they have a case to solve, but if they had treated Misty like the kid she was, they might have gotten somewhere with her. But instead, they've gone after her like a 50 year old, hardened psychopath. & Ron gets the compassion, the respect, the deference. This is moo, but the whole thing has felt sexist. & I realize that there's a missing child, & there's not much room for political correctness, but this LE & their tactics, leave a bad taste in my mouth. The same thing with Hope. Ron has been in & out of trouble for years, but he goes in, makes friends with the right people, cries & says the 'right' things, & gets a slap on the wrist-if you can even call it a slap-more like a love pat. Hope, & I do believe this is why, got the shaft because she's got a bad attitude, didn't say the right things, & isn't really attractive. Afterwards, we even got to hear what great friends she was with Misty & how tight they were. Oh really??? She wasn't tight with Ronald? Well, I guess my eyes were deceiving me then. IMO, Ron getting out of so much trouble, is a classic case of LE, judges, etc...going easy on a dangerous criminal, & then setting him free to commit worse crimes. If he had been locked up, where he belonged, Haleigh would be with her loved ones, right now.


I agree with you about LE. I have been following this case from day one. I have to say that I am not sure who the POI's are anymore. I really think that the FBI needs to step in and take over this case and start back at the first day and look at everybody with an open eye. All the RSO, SSO, drug dealers, families (all sides even the mother of Haleigh). There is so much info that has never made the news about this case (my husband works for the news and I have heard and saw so much that has been banned to be aired) that I have sent out letters to the higher ups about this case. IMOO, if the FBI does not take over, this case will never be solved or, the wrong ppl will end up charged with a crime they did not do.

:banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead:
 
The LDT analyst discounted DeLaCruz's explanation because DeLaCruz's defintion of responsibility was not the LDT analysts. DeLaCruz did not believe what he was answering truthfully because he had a different definition of the terms so it showed deception.

**************
That has always been my question with Misty failing all those tests. Even if Misty did tell the truth, if she did not believe it was true, I would think it would show deception.


Not sure I understand what you're trying to say. Isn't it the whole point of polygraph tests, to answer according to what you believe is true, and the theory is if you don't believe what you say you'll fail?

Do you have a specific question in mind that Misty may have defined differently?
 
Not sure I understand what you're trying to say. Isn't it the whole point of polygraph tests, to answer according to what you believe is true, and the theory is if you don't believe what you say you'll fail?

Do you have a specific question in mind that Misty may have defined differently?

I would think that you answer according to what you believe is true. However, in the discussion I provided the LDT Analyst wanted DeLaCruz to answer according to the LDT's definition of disapearance and responsibility not DeLaCruz's definition. When DeLaCruz did answer in that way, he showed deception. IMO, because he did not believe his answer was true but it was true according to the analysts definition. I also think the LDT analyst set him up to fail so they could apply pressure.

With Misty I was thinking more in terms of all her stories. I think people told Misty stories but she did not believe them herself. I don't think Misty knows enough of the truth. But she tried to "help" by answering according to the stories she was told. By doing that, Misty looked deceptive where in her own mind she was trying to help by repeating stories she was told.

I think the "people" who told her the stories were sitting right there where she did not feel safe to admit who she was told a story and who told her.
 
Ron said HaLeigh loved on him and would be waiting to see him when he got home from work and I wonder if the opposite occurred. I wonder if Ron told HaLeigh when he picked her up by himself at the bus stop Monday that he planned to punish her when he returned from work for bedwetting or some other type of "accident".
Ron could have told HaLeigh during the drive from the bus stop to the trailer that he planned to take her when he got off work and make her pay for what she had done. What if Ron returned home Monday evening, entered the trailer, unlocked the back doors, turned on the kitchen light, grabbed HaLeigh from her bed, disappeared into the woods and carried out his plan. Ron concealed his plan from Misty so she doesn't know what happened.

BBM: You mean Ronald said HaLeigh would be waiting up for him , so that she could see him at 3:00am???
Why would HaLeigh be up at 3:00am? Did they not say her bedtime is 8:00pm?
 
I may be alone on this, but I don't care about Misty's pass or fail when it comes to the tests she has taken or will take if she does take anymore. I know a few people who failed yet told the truth to every question asked, and 2 that passed when they lied when answering a few questions. So for me the pass or fail means nothing when it comes to being told Misty failed all her tests. It's what she has said or has not said that I base my opinion on whether she is telling the truth or not.


I am thinking she may not even understand half the questions she is asked. Her 911 call keeps coming to mind.
 
I may be alone on this, but I don't care about Misty's pass or fail when it comes to the tests she has taken or will take if she does take anymore. I know a few people who failed yet told the truth to every question asked, and 2 that passed when they lied when answering a few questions. So for me the pass or fail means nothing when it comes to being told Misty failed all her tests. It's what she has said or has not said that I base my opinion on whether she is telling the truth or not.


I am thinking she may not even understand half the questions she is asked. Her 911 call keeps coming to mind.

YES....that "pesky" 911 call that keeps popping up as a topic of discussion...IMO...that 911 call was staged...IF it was REAL...R would have been the one making the call...not M...H was HIS daughter...What parents have a "babysitter" make a 911 call ...when they are standing RIGHT THERE!
all in my own opinion..
 
BBM: You mean Ronald said HaLeigh would be waiting up for him , so that she could see him at 3:00am???
Why would HaLeigh be up at 3:00am? Did they not say her bedtime is 8:00pm?


That afternoon of February 9, 2009, Haleigh came home and her father, Ronald Cummings, met her at the bus stop.

"I got her off the school bus. She ran to me, jumped in my arms," he said last year. "I drove the car home. She got out, gave me a hug and a kiss, loved on me, told me she loved me and she'd see me when I got home. She's a daddy's girl."

http://www.actionnewsjax.com/conten...-seen-alive/rntjvS7pi0SsNbzTvIqkng.cspx?rss=1

That's what I wondered too... Was it usual for her to be up late at night when he got home from work? I guess it's not out of the question considering their way of life, even though much emphasis was put on bedtime at 8. But Misty said that Jr was up at night and she didn't even bother to see what he was doing, and she also said that Haleigh might have been watching DVDs when they were sleeping. If Ronald wasn't working overtime he would have been home a few hours earlier.
But he reports it as Haleigh's words so maybe it was just that Haleigh didn't quite understand the time yet and didn't realize she'd be sleeping when her father got home.

If you disregard the time issue it seems a bit precocious remark to me. Maybe it's just me but in my family, the adults would be far more likely to say, "I love you, I'll see you when I get home", and the five year old would say, "It's stupid, do you have to go, I want you to play with me!" :)
 
I may be alone on this, but I don't care about Misty's pass or fail when it comes to the tests she has taken or will take if she does take anymore. I know a few people who failed yet told the truth to every question asked, and 2 that passed when they lied when answering a few questions. So for me the pass or fail means nothing when it comes to being told Misty failed all her tests. It's what she has said or has not said that I base my opinion on whether she is telling the truth or not.


I am thinking she may not even understand half the questions she is asked. Her 911 call keeps coming to mind.
Some of those tests are hard to take seriously-especially, now that LE is supposedly using one of her 'failed miserablys' to find the perp. some tidbit they failed to notice before. whatever. She's been called every variation of liar in the book, but now we're supposed to believe LE found some truth in one of her lie tests? No, I don't think I'm buying that story. It's all part of some kind of set-up, IMO. They proved with the undercover cop sting operation, that they have no problem going there.
 
Or what did they leave?
Do we know who told Flora Hollars that a search was planned for a particular day? Wouldn't that have to be LE? Wouldn't it have had to have been someone in LE? Could LE have asked Flora to call Annette Sykes to tell her about the search?

All to see the reaction and actions of Ron's womenfolk, and anyone else, to this news? Lo and behold, there went Teresa and her mama, tramping around the intended search site at Shell Harbor and in the woods.

Just as when she caught wind of the Mondex Pond search and went straight out there, again Granny Sykes putting herself in the middle of it all. I was blown away, when during an interview, after being sent away, Annette stated that HaLeigh was NOT THERE (in the Mondex).

How could she possibly know that? If she knew HaLeigh wasn't there doesn't that mean she knows where HaLeigh is, that she knows what happened to her great-grandchild?

Just some questions and thoughts and opinions.
 
Could LE have known they were or would be going there and set up a camera or two?:banghead::banghead:
 
That afternoon of February 9, 2009, Haleigh came home and her father, Ronald Cummings, met her at the bus stop.

"I got her off the school bus. She ran to me, jumped in my arms," he said last year. "I drove the car home. She got out, gave me a hug and a kiss, loved on me, told me she loved me and she'd see me when I got home. She's a daddy's girl."

http://www.actionnewsjax.com/conten...-seen-alive/rntjvS7pi0SsNbzTvIqkng.cspx?rss=1

That's what I wondered too... Was it usual for her to be up late at night when he got home from work? I guess it's not out of the question considering their way of life, even though much emphasis was put on bedtime at 8. But Misty said that Jr was up at night and she didn't even bother to see what he was doing, and she also said that Haleigh might have been watching DVDs when they were sleeping. If Ronald wasn't working overtime he would have been home a few hours earlier.
But he reports it as Haleigh's words so maybe it was just that Haleigh didn't quite understand the time yet and didn't realize she'd be sleeping when her father got home.

If you disregard the time issue it seems a bit precocious remark to me. Maybe it's just me but in my family, the adults would be far more likely to say, "I love you, I'll see you when I get home", and the five year old would say, "It's stupid, do you have to go, I want you to play with me!" :)
Ron's whole after school story was too mushy to be true. He also had a variation where she sat in his lap & drove. What kind of dad would do that? What kind of dad would let his kid stay up, or get up to greet him, at 3 in the morning? What kind of dad, (who's in serious trouble for her tardies), would take his daughter, miles out of the way, for a particular outfit? before school? & after they had cooked & eaten breakfast? Now, if Ronald made it a habit to wake Haleigh up, when he got home, now that's a different story? She might very well say, 'I'll see you when you get home'. but if this wasn't a normal habit, Ronald would've reminded her that she wouldn't be up at that time. I don't believe anything that comes out of his mouth. I have SERIOUS doubts that he even pickedher up that day. & if that's true, then his whole story is hogwash. Misty's later account of staying home with a napping Jr. was also bunk. Please...does he just sleep the day away so he can be in bed by 8? What a story!!!
 
Not sure I understand what you're trying to say. Isn't it the whole point of polygraph tests, to answer according to what you believe is true, and the theory is if you don't believe what you say you'll fail?

Do you have a specific question in mind that Misty may have defined differently?

Was Misty asked:

"Has anyone asked you to lie for them regarding what happened to HaLeigh?"

"Have you been threatened in any way, by anyone, if you speak honestly about what you know regarding Haleigh and what has happened to her?"

"Are you afraid?"

"Are you unsure of the events of that night? Are you unsure, or unclear, regarding the events of the morning of February 9, 2009 through the 911 call at 3:27am on February10, 2009?"
 
Could LE have known they were or would be going there and set up a camera or two?:banghead::banghead:

Wouldn't you think that the LE have their own tactics for getting information, such as letting folks know...ahead of time...where searches are going to take place? Just so...they can "see/hear/observe ...what and who..come "around" the site....What would be the point...otherwise???

IF the LE did do this...I hope they gained a lot of information/insight from letting this info out "a day early"..and see what happens..

It is suspicious these 2 women are "exploring" the scene/scenes..before searches start...Good point!!!and good questions!!
 
Ron's whole after school story was too mushy to be true. He also had a variation where she sat in his lap & drove. What kind of dad would do that? What kind of dad would let his kid stay up, or get up to greet him, at 3 in the morning? What kind of dad, (who's in serious trouble for her tardies), would take his daughter, miles out of the way, for a particular outfit? before school? & after they had cooked & eaten breakfast? Now, if Ronald made it a habit to wake Haleigh up, when he got home, now that's a different story? She might very well say, 'I'll see you when you get home'. but if this wasn't a normal habit, Ronald would've reminded her that she wouldn't be up at that time. I don't believe anything that comes out of his mouth. I have SERIOUS doubts that he even pickedher up that day. & if that's true, then his whole story is hogwash. Misty's later account of staying home with a napping Jr. was also bunk. Please...does he just sleep the day away so he can be in bed by 8? What a story!!!
& one more thing about this load of crud story. Even by Ron's own admission, this happened before he went to work. Now, why in the world, would he need to lie about what happened before he went to work?
 
& one more thing about this load of crud story. Even by Ron's own admission, this happened before he went to work. Now, why in the world, would he need to lie about what happened before he went to work?

One thing that bothered me about the going to work story was that Misty said Ronald "had to" leave for work, but Shoemaker said he went to work 45 minutes early. It was a lovely reunion for a father and his daughter but he cut it short not because he had to go to work but because he preferred hanging about his workplace for 45 minutes apparently doing nothing in particular to spending 45 extra minutes with his children. Why? What could have been more important at PDM?
 
One thing that bothered me about the going to work story was that Misty said Ronald "had to" leave for work, but Shoemaker said he went to work 45 minutes early. It was a lovely reunion for a father and his daughter but he cut it short not because he had to go to work but because he preferred hanging about his workplace for 45 minutes apparently doing nothing in particular to spending 45 extra minutes with his children. Why? What could have been more important at PDM?

Bolded by me....Is it possible..IF R DID go into work 45 minutes early...COULD he have had...a LONGER..DINNER BREAK than usual????.

HMMM.....to go in earlier???...then work Overtime also.???.....anyone know and thanks for any info...
 
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