I ran into the "Study" page by Crabapple Jones (modsnip) again yesterday, and decided to reread it. Such a valuable project, and amazing because SC has the idiocy to join the conversation and insult people for being "wrong" (in March 2014). The page comes up with a google search, not sure if I can link it here.
CJ's theory at the time was that Charli never left Haiku, and that SC drove Nala and her clothes (and blanket, and other evidence) to plant it from Keanae to Nahiku. I would like to revisit that and see what you all think once again.
PRO:
1) If the murder occurs Haiku or Makawao -- SC does not need to trick Charli into driving him to Keanae on a Sunday night before work. Nor does he need to drug her, or tie her up and gag her to transport her in the vehicle in that state. He doesn't have the problem of Nala in the back of the vehicle sensing that Charli is being harmed. He doesn't risk a traffic stop that would bust him. These are positives from SC's POV as to logistics.
2) His alibi: This directs searchers to Keanae, away from Haiku. We know that SC volunteered to go out there and show the family where his truck was supposedly stuck.
Honomanu Bay area is not that far from the "truck site," so it is weird that he would lead them so close to the actual crime spot, dangerous for him, more likely he would be misdirecting them.
3) Crime scene staged? Honomanu Crime scene makes some sense as staged: Clothes were found in a pile, close to the road. "from the ladle" thought they were meant to be found. So many places to put the clothes and evidence if the crime scene is to be hidden. Instead there were her clothes, tape, blanket, jeans, fingernails, jawbone, and not sure what else. That's a lot of evidence. But yet her full remains or any other parts were never found. Everything that was found, was located Friday and Saturday after the murder, in that one spot -- aside from her vehicle and Nala, and the car parts that somehow ended up with "innocent" parties in Haiku. So the crime, if the scenes were not staged, was very sloppy in one way, leaving evidence very easy to find, but OTOH it was utterly efficient in obscuring her final location. That's odd, no? Real sloppiness would tend to get repeated.
4) The phone ping near Honomanu was at almost 11 PM. That's not a reasonable arrival time for an 8:30 departure from Haiku at all. The phone would ping when it first arrived near the tower there. It would be a reasonable time if they met 8:30-9 and he murdered her, and then he drove to Keanae area to stage the crime for his alibi. SC is a milennial and I'm sure he understands phone technology. Why would he allow her phone to ping if he were driving her out there and wanted no one to know ever? If he overpowered her, then would he not turn off her phone? (I'm much older, and I would.) One theory should be that he took the phone out there to ping, deliberately (not my theory, CJ proposes it on the Study page).
CONS/QUESTIONS:
1) Why did he claim to have seen her headlights as far as Twin Falls then, which would mean (for his alibi, once staged crime scene discovered), that she is supposed to have gone BACK east on Hana Highway by herself. Why? Carjacking by mythic Hana Highway serial killer? Maybe.
2) Nala unharmed, not dirty. Supposed to be found or not? If taken out there after the crime, what is the point? Sheer confusion? Pity for Nala?
3) The crime scene had hard evidence of her death. Blood-stained, stabbed clothing, fingernails, teeth, her jawbone, a body part she cannot live without, blood on the ground. A smart killer would never want this to be found. Without proof of death, an arrest is far less likely. But in any case, Haiku or Honumanu, this was a huge error. We know SC is not low intelligence, but is cocky and maybe not a student of crime. He may have ignorantly thought that without the whole body (at least mostly), the jawbone would be a taunt but not enough to convict.
Possible explanation: he hated her family that much that he wanted them to have graphic imagery and be tortured by it.
I could also imagine that he or an accomplice was surprised by a third party at Honomanu, at night, and they dropped the evidence and fled. OTOH, he had three more nights to go out there and retrieve evidence before the day anything was found. That is a lot of time for fixing mistakes and cleaning it up.
4) Charli's family learned from her that SC drove her against her will towards Hana earlier in January, and scared her, refused to turn around though she pleaded. That leads to theory it was like a dry run, or an aborted plan, and he meant to kill her near Keanae, always.
BUT he could have done it knowing she would tell someone, knowing this would point people towards Hana Highway, IF he planned that far ahead.
Another question: why the Facebook "alibi" of random postings (done by his GF or another friend?) to cover the afternoon period after he got off work? We know that nothing happened to Charli during that time period, that she went to a birthday party, and was last seen around 8 PM in Haiku. One possibly WAG from me is he intended to ambush Charli earlier and did not know about the party, perhaps expected her to be home. So created appearance of social media presence as a false track.
Perhaps he originally intended to have an alibi where she drove him to Keanae in the daytime. People certainly questioned the night trek, but a daylight favor would be believable. Say the party protected her and pushed back his plans, and he had to go with the only story he had ready?
Lastly, assuming everything he said in his alibi was to some extent a lie, then it should not be the truth that she stopped by his house on leaving the party. He said she came by and picked him up, so that puts me back to wondering if she went home as she told her sisters she had planned, and he was waiting there for her. Or maybe he did use that $1500 tire loan to hire some muscle, as he is so scrawny and she was not slight.
As I think about it all one more time, it doesn't make sense that he called her to ask for assistance. He couldn't be 100% sure she would not tell a sister she was doing it, which would start them all advising her not to do it. I understand she had a history of keeping contact with him secret, but at this time there was her pregnancy to influence her decisions.
He probably did initiate some phone contact that would show up on records. He had the thought to text her the next morning as if he thought she was alive. I think he expected his phone records would be scrutinized by police.
Taunting: the skull minus mandible painting was posted months after the news came out that a bone was found, with teeth. But prior to the announcement of the jawbone, which came when he was arrested. The painting seems to taunt the family with "I know" -- but enough people probably knew or had an idea about the bone that he could maybe claim he heard, or guessed.
I could see the story that she drove him out to Hana as a final taunt to her family. It says to them, that ultimately he had all the power over her, to get her to go to a lonely dark place where she shouldn't go, at a time that was unwise for her condition. I feel like he was engaged with some power struggle with her family, at least in his own head. I guess that is an argument for him making up this lie that she went with him voluntarily. It really backfired on him, was not a good alibi at all, and he should not have told it. Maybe he told it because he was seen out Hana Highway, but maybe he was compelled irrationally to tell it for other reasons than an alibi. And that was a disaster for him.
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I look forward to hearing what the police did get from phone records, his and hers. That has been a mystery that should be revealed early in the trial, I hope.
