CARIIS
Former Member
- Joined
- Jun 8, 2012
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Here is an overview of the season
The numbers at the bottom of the chart show the number of hurricanes predicted for each year. Red icons above the line indicate how many more hurricanes there were than predicted. Blue icons below the line indicate how many fewer hurricanes there were than predicted.
This season :
He mentions El Nino
El Niño is a phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures become warmer than normal in the equatorial Pacific. ... In general, warm El Niño events are characterized by more tropical storms andand hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the amount of sinking motion and increasing the atmospheric stability. La Niña has opposite impacts across the Pacific and Atlantic basins
Based on the model predictions and expert assessment, the chance of a return to neutral conditions by the end of the second quarter of 2018 is about 75-80%, while the chance of La Niña continuing into the third quarter is about 20-25%. During the second half of the year, while the probability for the development of El Niño is slightly greater than climatological probability, continuation of neutral conditions is considered to be the most likely scenario into late 2018.
It is important to note that El Niño and La Niña are not the only factors that drive global climate patterns, and that the strength of ENSO does not automatically correspond to the strength of its effects.
Hurricane Prep 101 - BoatUS Magazine
El Niño / La Niña Update - March 2018
But the reality really is all it takes is one! Irma was scary as heck. Charley was fun! Matt was interesting! moo
The numbers at the bottom of the chart show the number of hurricanes predicted for each year. Red icons above the line indicate how many more hurricanes there were than predicted. Blue icons below the line indicate how many fewer hurricanes there were than predicted.
This season :
He mentions El Nino
El Niño is a phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures become warmer than normal in the equatorial Pacific. ... In general, warm El Niño events are characterized by more tropical storms andand hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the amount of sinking motion and increasing the atmospheric stability. La Niña has opposite impacts across the Pacific and Atlantic basins
Based on the model predictions and expert assessment, the chance of a return to neutral conditions by the end of the second quarter of 2018 is about 75-80%, while the chance of La Niña continuing into the third quarter is about 20-25%. During the second half of the year, while the probability for the development of El Niño is slightly greater than climatological probability, continuation of neutral conditions is considered to be the most likely scenario into late 2018.
It is important to note that El Niño and La Niña are not the only factors that drive global climate patterns, and that the strength of ENSO does not automatically correspond to the strength of its effects.
Hurricane Prep 101 - BoatUS Magazine
El Niño / La Niña Update - March 2018
But the reality really is all it takes is one! Irma was scary as heck. Charley was fun! Matt was interesting! moo
