Hurricane Dorian - August/September 2019 #1

[PayrollNerd]

No link but Fl, Georgia, SC and NC are not going to tolerate looting.
All potential loser looters better beware.

Looters versus Florida’s Stand Your Ground law means certain death. Only a fool with a death wish would even try.

 

[mickey2942]

Looters versus Florida’s Stand Your Ground law means certain death. Only a fool with a death wish would even try.

I was actually surprised by the last hurricane in Miami, that anarchy didn't take over within 48 hours. It will be interesting to see what happens in Charleston.​

 

[Only4Justice]

Oceanblueeyes, aren't you in north Carolina?

I think she may be in Georgia?

 

[Sunny123]

Ok, my ‘hood is going to get outer bands about 3-4pm today. I’m in Sarasota County near the airport. I don't think all the lawnmowers have stopped in 2 days. High grass means snakes so it gets cut lower. Bringing in stuff off the lanai now too.

I'm about an hour north of there, and we had the usual afternoon storms here. I hope the storm stays East and spares the coastline.

 

[Jax49]

1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from
the Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River.

A Storm Surge Watch has also been extended northward from the
Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

 

[LadyL]

Hurricane Dorian - August 2019

 

[PayrollNerd]

Great that they’re reversing the highway flow. That forces people to get out and stay out.

 

[kkdj]

Can they make one evacuate with it being a mandatory evacuation?

 

[PayrollNerd]

Can they make one evacuate with it being a mandatory evacuation?

In Florida, yes. They’ll beat on your door. If you still refuse, they tell you to write your social security number on your arm so they can ID your body. That simple sentence seems to make it real for most. Then if they still don’t leave, they’re told not to bother to call for help. No one will come. Some people are just dense and/or their personal possessions are more important than their life.

 

[Inthedetails]

live radio from Bahamas: Listen to 1540 AM on TuneIn

 

[JudgeJoe]

Looters versus Florida’s Stand Your Ground law means certain death. Only a fool with a death wish would even try.

Yes, except it’s hard to stand your ground once you evacuate. And waiting to get back in with downed trees & wires, etc isn’t always timely. And those who loot know these things. Bleeeeckh. I hate hurricanes.

 

[momrids6]

Visions of Katrina ensure I leave. The folks stuck at the dome pics ....

 

[SandyQLS]

Someone upthread provided this spaghetti graph from BoatUS. I have been checking it and have noticed a significant shift to the west. Just Saturday morning only one model had Dorian engaging the FL coast, the others were all out to sea. Right now 3 models hit FL. I have been concerned about 1. Jacksonville and 2. Charleston with this Dorian. Navy at Mayport evac'd planes way back on Wednesday or Thursday, and started sending ships to sea.

Dorian : BoatUS Hurricane Tracking & Resource Center

 

[Inthedetails]

Someone upthread provided this spaghetti graph from BoatUS. I have been checking it and have noticed a significant shift to the west. Just Saturday morning only one model had Dorian engaging the FL coast, the others were all out to sea. Right now 3 models hit FL. I have been concerned about 1. Jacksonville and 2. Charleston with this Dorian. Navy at Mayport evac'd planes way back on Wednesday or Thursday, and started sending ships to sea.

Dorian : BoatUS Hurricane Tracking & Resource Center

Is Dorian following the models? Seems like it would be heading north now/soon for most models, but still seems to be heading west.

 

[JudgeJoe]

Outermost bands look like they are just starting to brush up against Miami & Ft L. Still traveling strait west with each update. Meatballs defying the spaghetti.

 

[Katharine]

FL hurricane.coms Facebook post features Levi’s video

Flhurricane.com

Here is Tropical Tidbits (direct link)

Tropical Tidbits

Thank you PayrollNerd (so cute but what does your screen name mean?). I finally viewed Levi Cowan and he is outstanding. I cannot handle the weather channel at all. I do not need to provide fodder for my anxiety disorder from that station. This calmed me down some, lol. I have a brother and friends in Cape Canaveral area. I live about hour or so away from Jacksonville. My brother resides Cocoa Beach across from ocean in cement building but will be staying with friends in Palm Bay about 20 miles from ocean....eek in a trailer but they have small generator and another generator that could do 2 homes. He rode out both Hurricane Michael with no loss of electricity and Hurricane Irma with loss of electricity. Thank you again for this link flhurricane.com directly to Levi Cowan youtube.

Thank you to everyone for your input.

 

[MsMarple]

2 am intermediate advisory. Dorian is pummeling the Bahamas currently. Air pressure has risen slightly and winds are lower to 175 mph as expected while it's over land. Storm surges there are about 20 feet above normal. They're getting hit badly. News coming out from there is sketchy right now but reports say there's substantial damage. My heart goes out to the Bahamians.

Once it passes through we'll see if Dorian begins strengthening again.

LOCATION...26.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES
National Hurricane Center

 

[MsFacetious]

Many people are without adequate shelter as Hurricane Dorian's category 5 winds and rains caused "extensive damage" to the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama, according to initial assessments from authorities and Red Cross officials on the ground.

As many as 13,000 homes have been severely damaged or destroyed, according to a statement from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and extensive flooding has created an "urgent need" for clean water as wells become contaminated with saltwater.

Live updates: Hurricane Dorian slams into the Bahamas - CNN

 

[enelram]

Is Dorian following the models? Seems like it would be heading north now/soon for most models, but still seems to be heading west.

The anticipated turn north isn't expected until tonight sometime. Still on track as expected.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Tidbits Facebook post a few minutes ago from Levi.

Tropical Tidbits

Dorian has nearly stalled over Grand Bahama this morning, and is barely drifting northwestward, a horrifying situation for the island. In a game of inches, the fact that this has occurred over the eastern half of the island instead of the western half might be good news for Florida, though this guarantees nothing.

The one major computer model that was still showing a direct Florida landfall (HWRF) has trended offshore overnight, which is also good news. Other models like ECMWF and GFS trended closer to the coast (40-50 miles offshore), which would still be a dangerous track.

The storm is also beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, which while typically accompanied by a decrease in max winds, also results in a broadening of the wind field, making it more likely to impact Florida even if the eye is offshore.

Again, nothing is guaranteed. Tiny wobbles in the storm track could have vast consequences. Be vigilant, and be prepared just in case the worst happens.