Hurricane Dorian - August/September 2019 #2

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane Facebook post today:
Flhurricane.com

Dorian is now post tropical, but still affecting Newfoundland in the Canadian Maritimes with damaging wind and surge. Tropical Storm Gabrielle is still holding and may affect Ireland or Scotland as a post tropical system later this week.

An area, low pressure trough, closer to home northeast of the leewards has a 20% chance to develop into something later this week. The time of the year makes us need to watch, but has no significant model support yet. Florida and the Gulf should monitor it to see if anything happens with it, though.

Another area in the Central Atlantic has a 40% chance to develop, and the lesser Antilles should watch that. Beyond that there may be more development still that we may need to watch in the US.

800 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Dorian, located over Atlantic Canada, and on Tropical Storm
Gabrielle, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the low moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with a
trough of low pressure. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
prevent the development of this system during the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward to the north of the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico. By mid week, environmental conditions
could become more conducive for development when the disturbance
reaches the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

[Simply Southern]

Checking in to see what the Chef is up to.

Yesterday, he send a request and expressed need for an addition helicopter to reach more areas. I'm praying and believing this will be provided!!!!

World Central Kitchen on Twitter

Sunday morning #ChefsForBahamas lunch prep in Nassau: @mingtsai is making Bahaman tuna salad for sandwiches to be delivered by helicopter and seaplane! World Central Kitchen on Twitter

 

[Bravo]

Oh magz I am so sorry you suffer from your horrific experiences. Those supplies you hang on to are your safety net. You are comfortable just knowing they are there. Sending a big cyber hug.

 

[Simply Southern]

This photo will warm your heart.

José Andrés on Twitter

Serving meals+fruit earlier at the primary school shelter in Marsh Harbor on Abaco! I’ve met so many heroes here I lose count...we cannot let them down #ChefsForBahamas @WCKitchen José Andrés on Twitter

 

[margarita25]

Oh magz I am so sorry you suffer from your horrific experiences. Those supplies you hang on to are your safety net. You are comfortable just knowing they are there. Sending a big cyber hug.

Thanks Bravo. I couldn’t even work I was so “hypnotized”. I tried!!!! I couldn’t focus!!

There is an “academic fascination” (and obsession) that comes with all this as well for me, all the elements of the storm, etc. No two storms are ever the same. All the variables and scientific aspects....seems I’ve got a real interest in meteorology.

I’ve (and we’ve) never seen anything like this in the Atlantic Basin, and when it went from moving at “1mph” to “stationary” I about fainted. And stayed “stationary”, holy moly.....this was just......I can’t even talk about it yet really it was so crazy. I was standing with my face up to the TV taking pictures. Quite a sight I imagine.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Oh, yes love my battery fan. Also love my fold up camp kitchen.

Solar lights are great, the outdoor kind. Take the top off the post and set over a drink glass. The glass reflects and increases the light. Wally world sell head lamps for .99, I keep these on hand, they work well in a glass.

Several years ago, I went on a camping gear upgrade. Oh my, what you can get now. I went crazy.
Its likes the Hilton of camping now days.

I'm thinking about having one of those whole house permanent generators installed. It runs on my natural gas system and automatically kicks on when the power goes out. We have so many thunderstorms/tropical storms/hurricanes here and I always lose power. Sometimes for hours, sometimes for days. It's pricey, but may just be worth it.

 

[margarita25]

I'm thinking about having one of those whole house permanent generators installed. It runs on my natural gas system and automatically kicks on when the power goes out. We have so many thunderstorms/tropical storms/hurricanes here and I always lose power. Sometimes for hours, sometimes for days. It's pricey, but may just be worth it.

Yes. And I’m sure you already know but those who don’t need to know that there are very important safety concerns and considerations as related to using generators that are not to be taken lightly, so everyone run your generators properly:

“Never run a generator in an enclosed space or indoors.
That includes the basement or garage, spaces that can capture deadly levels of carbon monoxide. Always place the generator at least 20 feet from the house with the engine exhaust directed away from windows and doors.”
Jul 11, 2019
Generator Safety Tips - Consumer Reports

 

[imstilla.grandma]

One hundred members of the Trinidad and Tobago Defence Force (TTDF) are set to depart the Piarco International Airport on Sunday for Nassau, Bahamas.

The troops will be on the ground in Bahamas from Sunday as part of Trinidad and Tobago’s relief efforts to Bahamas following the devastation of Hurricane Dorian.

T&T’s Government has also promised USD$500,000 assist recovery efforts.
The 100-strong troops, which comprises medics, engineers and other specialist skills, will be in Bahamas for a period of 30 days.
100 T&T troops depart for hurricane-stricken Bahamas

 

[imstilla.grandma]

The government of the Bahamas has sent 900 police and military personnel to the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama hardest hit by Hurricane Dorian, while taking action to stave off any profiteering by private sector rescue missions amid signs of chaos in some of the aid operations.

Meanwhile, emergency officials in the Bahamas said they have had to “clamp down” on aircraft demanding payment for evacuating displaced people from some of the areas devastated by Hurricane Dorian.

The Bahamian government’s National Emergency Management Agency (Nema) said aviation authorities are aware of reports of “commercial activity” and would revoke flight permission for any aircraft charging fees.

The agency said in a statement on Sunday that no flights are permitted to bill the authorities for evacuations and that consumer protection officials are investigating “incidences of price gouging”.

A website started by a member of the public in the Bahamas for people unofficially to log missing persons has at least 6,500 names on it and, as of Sunday afternoon, while many have the status “known” recorded next to the name, more names have “unknown” written next to them.

Civil aviation authorities said they were restricting air space over the devastated Abaco and Grand Bahama islands to prevent accidents and ensure only approved aircraft that are providing aid can fly there.

Officials have authorized 200 private planes in the area and say “saturated airspace was creating a volatile situation”.

Phillip Smith, the executive director of the Bahamas Feeding Network, a non-profit organisation, was organising the delivery of 20,000 meals to those most in need in Freeport, on Grand Bahama island.
Bahamas sends 900 security personnel to hurricane-hit islands

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I have an honest question, and please don’t throw tomatoes at me.

I know everyone thinks it’s in poor taste for the Minister of Tourism to ask that tourists visit the other islands.

These islands have not been affected, so why is that a bad request? That would be like if US depended on Tourism and people were avoiding the entire country because one or two states got hit by a Hurricane.

What I’m saying is that with this country depending on tourism, how are they ever going to “bounce back” if people don’t go there? I’ve been through a lot of Hurricanes and have been jobless afterwards. That’s one of the hard parts associated with the recovery, you can’t even work and bounce back if you want to because there are no jobs, etc.

Why should unaffected areas have to suffer the loss of tourism if they were not even hit?

If these folks are going to ever somewhat recover, it’s going to be extra hard if there isn’t an economy for them. People who have suffered on Abaco, GBI can go to these other islands and start over. And there will be jobs for them.

With a nation that depends on tourism, I don’t think it’s bad a thing for them to say outright “we need your tourism dollars” because it’s true. That’s a good way for families to start rebuilding themselves.

Obviously if the Minister was referring to the damaged areas that would be nonsensical. But he’s not. Those areas have been deemed unlivable. He’s referring to the unaffected portions.

Why should all the islands suffer because of this?

As far as donations and relief supplies, they have that coordinated with military agencies and groups. I saw during the storm a discussion about air drops/ they need persons on the ground to help distribute, etc. I guess what I’m saying is that there are groups and organizations that are handling all this.

Again, please don’t throw tomatoes at me. I’m really trying to understand what is wrong with visiting an island that has not being affected if this is a major component of recovery for that nation.

Thanks in advance for your replies and please don’t be too hard on me. Again, I’ve been without work post hurricanes myself and I remember during those times all I wanted to do was get back to normal life again and start working.

Margarita, you know how this group is. We learn from each other and we do often change our minds 180 degrees due to information from others that post here. That is what I love about this site, is so often other people and put information that changes my mind.

If I had not thought about 9/11 and what the mayor said right afterwards about getting back to work and getting the economy back on track, I would not have even considered that is the reason the financial Ministry said such. But that is the financial Ministry job is to keep the economy going, so it makes sense to me now.

Many folks react without understanding and all the information, and the media sometimes needs to get their facts and positioning more straight to guide others to understand that the economy is their lifeblood for the country and all of the islands.

Moo, and thanks to all of you for keeping facts and information and challenging the media and some of the reports and positioning for all of us to consider and reconsider our positions.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Viral Dorian Jeep owners raise money for hurricane relief

This is great!! I'm a 30 year Jeep gal.

Hope Jeep will pick up the article and help out.

Look at all the free advertising they received.[/QUOTE]

If I was in marketing for Jeep Corporation, I would go down there, bail out the Jeep, restore it, give it back to the owner!

And publicize it as a fundraiser also in the advertisement and give him money in addition to donate to the Bohemians!

In a perfect world that would be the best outcome!

Us old folks remember the Timex commercials of it takes a licking and keeps on ticking, and it's a marketing person I would try to find some saying that would go with that that is catchy. All in efforts to fundraise, but of course, publicize my Corporation of Jeep! Jeep Corporation is really missing out if they don't do something that is just sitting there and their lap to help out with fundraising for Bahama.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Yes. And I’m sure you already know but those who don’t need to know that there are important safety concerns and considerations as related to these that are not to be taken lightly, so everyone run your generators properly:

“Never run a generator in an enclosed space or indoors.
That includes the basement or garage, spaces that can capture deadly levels of carbon monoxide. Always place the generator at least 20 feet from the house with the engine exhaust directed away from windows and doors.”
Jul 11, 2019
Generator Safety Tips - Consumer Reports

I'm always in disbelief when people die from running generators indoors. You hear about it over and over, it seems.

 

[Gardener1850]

I have an honest question, and please don’t throw tomatoes at me.

I know everyone thinks it’s in poor taste for the Minister of Tourism to ask that tourists visit the other islands.

These islands have not been affected, so why is that a bad request? That would be like if US depended on Tourism and people were avoiding the entire country because one or two states got hit by a Hurricane.

What I’m saying is that with this country depending on tourism, how are they ever going to “bounce back” if people don’t go there? I’ve been through a lot of Hurricanes and have been jobless afterwards. That’s one of the hard parts associated with the recovery, you can’t even work and bounce back if you want to because there are no jobs, etc.

Why should unaffected areas have to suffer the loss of tourism if they were not even hit?

If these folks are going to ever somewhat recover, it’s going to be extra hard if there isn’t an economy for them. People who have suffered on Abaco, GBI can go to these other islands and start over. And there will be jobs for them.

With a nation that depends on tourism, I don’t think it’s bad a thing for them to say outright “we need your tourism dollars” because it’s true. That’s a good way for families to start rebuilding themselves.

Obviously if the Minister was referring to the damaged areas that would be nonsensical. But he’s not. Those areas have been deemed unlivable. He’s referring to the unaffected portions.

Why should all the islands suffer because of this?

As far as donations and relief supplies, they have that coordinated with military agencies and groups. I saw during the storm a discussion about air drops/ they need persons on the ground to help distribute, etc. I guess what I’m saying is that there are groups and organizations that are handling all this.

Again, please don’t throw tomatoes at me. I’m really trying to understand what is wrong with visiting an island that has not being affected if this is a major component of recovery for that nation.

Thanks in advance for your replies and please don’t be too hard on me. Again, I’ve been without work post hurricanes myself and I remember during those times all I wanted to do was get back to normal life again and start working.

I agree with you for the most part @margarita25

People who lost everything and are starting over will need jobs and the tourist industry may provide those jobs in the long run. One issue may be the timing of the minister's statements. In the short term (right now) tourist/sight-seeing flights with single passengers are causing too much congestion at the main airport where people are trying to bring in aide and drop off evacuees. Read this article from the Miami Herald on the frustrations of pilots trying to help right now: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article234792032.html

Also not covered in that article, but since the airports on the affected islands were damaged there is no place for a large cargo plane with supplies to land. One example of this is that Samaritan's Purse sent an Emergency Field Hospital for Grand Bahama Island, but their plane carrying the entire hospital (a DC-8) is too big to land at the damaged Freeport airport. They had to land in Nassau and have smaller aircraft take the pieces of the field hospital over in sections. It's explained by the reporter in the video at this link: FOX8’s Neill McNeill reports from the Bahamas as NC-based Samaritan’s Purse delivers emergency field hospital amid devastation

I wish that the Minister's statements had requested tourists temporarily avoid the main airport where aid is trying to come in. If they rerouted tourist flights heading to Nassau to one of the other unaffected islands for a few days or even a week it would speed relief efforts. They could get more people off the affected islands faster and back to more normal operations at that airport faster. But I don't blame him for wanting people to still visit the unaffected islands. Life has to go on for those who live in the unaffected areas. There's no need for people who have plans to visit an unaffected island to cancel their vacations entirely but I bet most of those tourist will be upset if they find themselves waiting 4 hours for their flight to land and find out it's due to the influx of relief aide. Most people vacationing don't want to impede disaster relief efforts and also prefer not to be inconvenienced when they mean to relax. His comments may have come off as insensitive in this moment due to the perception that he was ignoring the crisis taking place and painting it as if nothing will be different for visitors. At the very least those visiting Nassau will notice what is going on. MOO.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

The ship would be able to carry significantly more humanitarian aid and disaster relief equipment than at present. It would act as an HQ and accommodation unit for hundreds of first-response personnel flown out from the UK.

The vessel would also be fully employed outside disaster-relief periods as a training ship for future merchant navy seafarers, engaged in humanitarian aid and ocean and beach cleanups.
P
A new UK charity, Britannia Maritime Aid, has been formed to design and build such a ship and is now seeking both public and government support and funding.

This year we celebrate the centenary of the merchant navy. What better way to remember the service and sacrifice of our predecessors than to engage current seafarers in humanitarian and environmental projects, and at the same time invest in the seafarers of the future?
We could have a ship on standby for emergencies like Hurricane Dorian | Letters

 

[imstilla.grandma]

Formal disaster response efforts by the Bahamian government and US-based rescue took days to begin, as teams waited for government permission to bring in doctors and equipment, gas, chainsaws and generators.

Sep 7, 2019; Treasure Cay, Bahamas; People unload humanitarian aid at the Treasure Cay Airport on Treasure Cay in the Bahamas following the passage of Hurricane Dorian. (Photo: Trevor Hughes, Trevor Hughes-USA TODAY)


The hurricane destroyed the island’s power grid and halted cell phone service for all but a few people near a battered government building in Marsh Harbour, complicating relief efforts, which were largely being conducted via satellite phone.

“We need generators, we need fuel. We’re going to be without power for a long time,” said Darnika Farrington, 32, as a military vehicle driven by British commandos rumbled past.

They were joined by Team Rubicon and Hearts & Hands Disaster Recovery, assisted by companies like Tropic Ocean Airways, which was using float planes to reach more remote areas. Chef Jose Andres and his team from World Central Kitchen were flying in hot meals for survivors and rescue workers alike, and the number of doctors ready to treat patients was growing.

On the island itself, sanitation was rapidly becoming a concern. While flights were bringing in bottled water, islanders needed much larger amounts for bathing and flushing toilets. And anyone driving around the island risked multiple flat tires from the debris, and gas was in short supply. Rescue teams siphoned gas from the tanks of abandoned cars not already emptied by residents.
'Paradise has been turned to hell': Residents, aid workers in Bahamas deal with Dorian devastation

 

[imstilla.grandma]

“Disasters are difficult enough to contend with,” said Tricia Wachtendorf, a professor of sociology and head of the Disaster Resource Center at the University of Delaware. “The impact to the Bahamas is really catastrophic in nature.”

What’s the difference between a disaster and a catastrophe? Wachtendorf explained that while the results of a disaster are more contained and localized – allowing nearby communities to help, emergency shelters to function, and so forth – a catastrophe “involves destruction to most or all of the built environment.”

In the case of the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, the built environment is so destroyed that it’s difficult to even get aid where it’s needed. A Direct Relief staff member delivering medicines and supplies had to take a route that was indirect and uncertain at best to reach the Abacos.

And while right now, efforts are concentrated on getting food, water, and medical aid to those most affected by Dorian, the experts consulted for this article all agreed that a storm of this magnitude has impacts that will likely continue for months or years afterward.

UBS, a financial services company, has estimated that Dorian will cost insurers up to $25 billion – a number that includes losses in the United States as well as the Bahamas.

But some of the storm’s damage – to communities and their health – may be harder to measure.
For the Bahamas, Some Damage Can’t Be Measured - Bahamas

 

[imstilla.grandma]

A Government spokesperson said, “As a reminder, please do not send any more goods to the Hamilton Seventh Day Adventist Church. The ship’s capacity has been reached and we cannot accept any more goods.

“We thank the public for their overwhelming support and generosity, however we ask that no further goods be delivered to the Hamilton Seventh-day Adventist Church. For those who still wish to donate, further details will be provided on the next phase of donations.

“The public are encouraged to continue making donations through other agencies.”
"The Ship’s Capacity Has Been Reached" - Bernews

 

[imstilla.grandma]

CCRIF (formerly named the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility) is set to payout almost $11 million to the Bahamas after hurricane Dorian triggered its parametric tropical cyclone insurance policy.

In a clear demonstration of the efficacy of parametric insurance and reinsurance protection, the CCRIF has already paid 50% of the $11 million total to the Bahamas with the remainder to come within its typical 14 day payout window.

Due to the quick payout this important funding source can be put to work immediately in the Bahamas to assist with its recovery from hurricane Dorian.

The Bahamas has 3 parametric tropical cyclone insurance policies with the CCRIF. Each of these provides coverage for a different area of the archipelago, North West, South East and Central.
Bahamas gets $11m from CCRIF after Dorian triggers parametric insurance - Artemis.bm

 

[CharlestonGal]

Looks like the bridge is again under restriction and the cam is still out. The winds are still kicking up in that area. How are you doing @pugmom?

CURRENT WIND SPEED

Date/Time Temp Speed Gusts Dir
09/08/2019 03:29:00 pm 14°C 72 km/h 90 km/h NW
09/08/2019 03:23:00 pm 14°C 74 km/h 90 km/h NW
09/08/2019 03:17:00 pm 14°C 68 km/h 85 km/h WNW
09/08/2019 03:11:00 pm 14°C 68 km/h 86 km/h NW

 

[imstilla.grandma]

There are national and international aid institutions. The U.S. Coast Guard is helping out a close neighbor. The United Kingdom sent a Landing Ship Dock to a member of its Commonwealth. Other nations will help, but the people of the Bahamas will take years to replace what they lost physically and decades to return to their net worth of only a week ago.

Being a large nation is not all advantage. But in situations like this, there are harsh drawbacks to being a tiny nation.
Real World Economics: What Dorian tells us about risk and scale – Twin Cities
.