Hurricane Dorian - August/September 2019 #2

[CSIDreamer]

Bahamas: Nassau evacuee shelter full; burials begin on Abaco Islands

I'm still a bit concerned about an accurate death toll. I always cringe over mass graves. But I understand the need.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Flhurricane Facebook post today.
Flhurricane.com

Hurricane Dorian has moved away and become extra-tropical after leaving its wake in the northwest Bahamas which were devastated. Beyond that flooding and damage to the Outer Banks, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. And causing quite a bit of a stir in other areas of the southeast US and Florida.

Today is historically the peak of the hurricane season, and two years ago today was the day Irma went through Florida.

Beyond that we have several areas to watch, Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which has become extra-tropical and may eventually impact the north parts of Ireland or Scotland with its remnants, and a few areas in the open Atlantic. Only one of which is an invest currently.

The closest area to the US is north of Haiti this morning and has a low chance of 20% to develop, it's currently in an area of high shear which is keeping development low, but that could change as it moves over Florida into the Gulf of the Mexico later this week. Florida and the Gulf coasts should keep an eye on it to see if anything changes.

94L east of the Caribbean is in a marginal spot for development, with about 30% chance over the next 5 days/48 hours. This probably won't develop, but could.

Off Africa is the most interesting of the waves on the various models, but likely won't develop until much further west, but currently has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days. Development seems more likely after 5 days.

200 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, located over the far north
Atlantic Ocean.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters has
increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance
is expected during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development when
the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico
late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across
the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and
continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave located
about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although some slight
development of this system is possible today or Wednesday, by
Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move
slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

[pugmom]

Hey everyone! I finally have television, internet, and my landline back! Time to catch up on all the news I've missed since Saturday afternoon. Thanks for keeping me company through Dorian, you all helped calm my nerves so, so much! Thanks for your kind messages and for keeping me in the loop when I was in the dark!

 

[Bravo]

Excellent news pugmom. Thanks for letting us know.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Hey everyone! I finally have television, internet, and my landline back! Time to catch up on all the news I've missed since Saturday afternoon. Thanks for keeping me company through Dorian, you all helped calm my nerves so, so much! Thanks for your kind messages and for keeping me in the loop when I was in the dark!

Yay! I always do a happy dance when all the comforts come back. It's amazing to me how much I take for granted sometimes.

I'm glad you're safe and well!

 

[pugmom]

Yay! I always do a happy dance when all the comforts come back. It's amazing to me how much I take for granted sometimes.

I'm glad you're safe and well!

Thanks! It's crazy how much I depend on being online for entertainment, information, etc. I didn't miss the tv all that much, but not being able to check the news and my email was so frustrating! But it feels so silly being so upset with losing so little when so many have lost so much.

 

[pugmom]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prin...orm-destruction-across-the-province-1.5276353

Here's some of the damage PEI sustained. There's still a lot of people without power.

 

[Bravo]

Thanks! It's crazy how much I depend on being online for entertainment, information, etc. I didn't miss the tv all that much, but not being able to check the news and my email was so frustrating! But it feels so silly being so upset with losing so little when so many have lost so much.

Don't feel silly. It was your experience and it was scary for you.

 

[mickey2942]

Yay! I always do a happy dance when all the comforts come back. It's amazing to me how much I take for granted sometimes.

I'm glad you're safe and well!

Yes, I didn't realize that water in the house was related to electricity being on. And the toilet flushing! Now, I know why you are supposed to fill the bathtub with water!

 

[PayrollNerd]

What is the plan for the next hurricane thread? Does a new one get opened?

flhurricane Facebook post today at 8:45pm EST.

Flhurricane.com

The area currently near the Southeast Bahamas is now being tracked as Invest 95L and has a 40% chance to develop over the next 5 days, possibly when it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Those in the Northern Gulf coasts should pay attention over the next few days since if it develops it could impact the Northern Gulf coast late this weekend, models predict it to be relatively weak, but this time of year in the Gulf is a gamble for intensity. Most likely Impacts in South Florida would just be more rain on Friday, but there is a 10% chance it could develop before Florida.

800 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing
widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks
and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward
over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports
indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some
of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally
conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become more favorable for development when the system moves over the
Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week
and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday
and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this
disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity,
some slight development of this system is still possible tonight and
Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance
is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

[CharlestonGal]

I don't think anyone would mind if you made a new thread about tropical weather. This is the weather forum, after all.

 

[PayrollNerd]

I have never opened a thread on here..... I don't know that I'm that tech savvy to be honest. Maybe we can wait until it has a name.

The reason I brought it up is my kid that I wrote about surviving Irma - she's offshore again, in the Gulf dropping research cameras. They started out of St. Pete, FL and are expected to dock in Key West, FL on Sunday. I'm likely to lose my mind, and so is she, if she has to ride out some storm out there. Just consider yourself forewarned if I lose my marbles on occasion. LOL!

 

[Happygo]

I don’t want to be a negative Nellie, but after watching this hurricane and Katrina I feel as if we aren’t doing enough ahead of these storms to prepare for disaster relief planning. We had days before each storms and knew that’s Dorian was going to be unprecedented. I know different governments hinder this process, but it seems cargo containers could have been filled and lined up ahead of the storm ready to go immediately when the weather cleared. We know what people are going to need for survival and for clean up. I’m kw we are getting better about it, but these are predictable in that they occur every hurricane season and we get at least a few days to evacuate or stick up on supplies. Plenty of time to have a plan that includes all government agencies working together to get people help. There shouldn’t be a worry about a cholera outbreak because supplies should be in the ground taking care of hygiene needs and the highest risk patients should be treated first. There should be government security in the ground ready to keep people safe and aid workers safe and cargo ships safe. This continues to be a crisis because there are many issues coming up in addition to people being in shock, homeless, traumatized by what they’ve seen and not having clean water and food. So beyond these necessary items people need to survive, they aren’t getting it so they are going to get sick and spread those illnessses. These people have weakened immune systems from the trauma and the lack of healthy food and clean water so they are susceptible to whatever germs are floating around. It’s a recipe for another disaster. Everyone needs a plan to avoid continuing to struggle after the initial crisis.

 

[CharlestonGal]

I have never opened a thread on here..... I don't know that I'm that tech savvy to be honest. Maybe we can wait until it has a name.

The reason I brought it up is my kid that I wrote about surviving Irma - she's offshore again, in the Gulf dropping research cameras. They started out of St. Pete, FL and are expected to dock in Key West, FL on Sunday. I'm likely to lose my mind, and so is she, if she has to ride out some storm out there. Just consider yourself forewarned if I lose my marbles on occasion. LOL!

Never fear. We shall be here to help you find and gather your marbles.

 

[CharlestonGal]

DBM. Wrong thread.

 

[JerseyGirl]

I set up a new thread called "Potential Tropical Storm Humberto" if you would like to discuss the tropical depressions currently in the Atlantic:

Potential Tropical Storm Humberto - Sept 2019

 

[PayrollNerd]

I set up a new thread called "Potential Tropical Storm Humberto" if you would like to discuss the tropical depressions currently in the Atlantic:

Potential Tropical Storm Humberto - Sept 2019

Thank you! My daughter texted me this morning. I posted them on the new thread. They docked in Clearwater to switch out Captains and now they are headed back out.

 

[JerseyGirl]

At least 2,500 people listed as missing in Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian

 

[Simply Southern]

Chef Jose prepares for storms....


José Andrés on Twitter

UPDATE! Second round of helicopters in the air, bringing hot pasta bolognese, sandwiches, plus ingredients to cook to Abaco in case the storms are bad tomorrow! #ChefsForBahamas José Andrés on Twitter

 

[PayrollNerd]

At least 2,500 people listed as missing in Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian

I don't even want to hit Like on this. I need a Sad button. These poor people. They went from having such a normal life to being refugees without even their families left. Heartbreaking.