Hurricane Florence - September 2018

[momrids6]

I hate to say this, but even though the eye may go somewhere over Wilmington (south of Edenton), the right side, or the onshore hurricane winds and surge will plummet them.

We were on the right side of Harvey and Irma. It was ugly - and those were no where near the strength of Florence. The South is waterlogged from rain all summer. We're hoping the trees stay upright.

 

[CARIIS]

I hate to say this, but even though the eye may go somewhere over Wilmington (south of Edenton), the right side, or the onshore hurricane winds and surge will plummet them.

I agree my dear

what media did this AM is not ok

she is 500 miles wide confusing people who are not following it like we are is just not right

and I want to be careful here respectfully - just what they carried on with this AM ( we are a small sample size) changed someones plans

it was not a change in anything -- what happened was 24 hours passed and the new model runs now bring in 24 hour later data

we are noticing the hysteria about florence is changing course is gone--

i am not hearing it any longer

right up till landfall there are margins of error

we all are following and they confused the heck out of us the way they reported it and it took us a while to figure what out what they were blabbing about

Charley changed his mind big time -- but that was a CHANGE!

msnbc she is as big as michigan

170 billion damage estimate

 

[CARIIS]

distance between charleston and wilmington

3 h 26 min (172.2 mi) via US-17 N

she is 500 miles wide

 

[neesaki]

Also from Weather Channel:

Concern grows over Florence’s track:
Showed it going more west, but it could turn and go more south .
Ok, seems they’re really not sure, more reason than ever for evacuation in areas where they’re saying to just wait!
And,
Hurricane hunters fly into Florence:
Another plane will be going in 7 hours, Can you imagine?

Watch Turbulence as Hurricane Hunters Fly Through Hurricane Florence | The Weather Channel

 

[CARIIS]

Updates are 5:00 & 11:00 am & pm. As it gets closer, they add 2:00 & 8:00 am & pm updates (as they have now).

here is the mini (!) 2 issue:

200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLORENCE'S PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY BUT THE SIZE OF THE
WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

Hurricane Florence Public Advisory

 

[CARIIS]

AHoffman

where are you? we need you

can you find actual deployment of resources numbers ??

you know your stuff

 

[CARIIS]

Nothing like cold wet black noses for a moment of levity ( i never saw the last one!!!)

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[JerseyGirl]

We were on the right side of Harvey and Irma. It was ugly - and those were no where near the strength of Florence. The South is waterlogged from rain all summer. We're hoping the trees stay upright.

We were on the right side of Sandy too - major storm surge and stronger onshore winds. And Sandy was "only' a SuperStorm, or at most a Cat 1.

I haven't heard any word on the tide schedule for the NC/SC area. It was high tide and a full moon or something with Sandy, which caused even more surging.

 

[Jax49]

We were on the right side of Sandy too - major storm surge and stronger onshore winds.

I haven't heard any word on the tide schedule. It was high tide and a full moon or something with Sandy, which caused even more surging.

I heard someone on the weather channel suggest if it stalls it may last several tide cycles.

ETA: Next full moon is the 24th so that shouldn't be a concern.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Latest developments

• Location: By 2 p.m. Wednesday, the storm was about 435 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.

• Florence's predicted slow southward turn off North Carolina on Friday means some coastal areas will get damaging hurricane-force winds for more than 24 hours. "If this blows at 120 mph for four hours, ... you lose a shingle every two minutes, and all of the sudden, you've lost your whole roof after four hours."

• Florence's circulation could bring life-threatening storm surges, up to 13 feet, to the front-right quadrant of storm -- covering much of North Carolina's coast -- and those effects also could extend to South Carolina, if the storm stalls and turns left as predicted.

• Don't stare at the eye: "We can't focus on the eye on this thing, because (Florence is) 150 miles wide from one side to the other," and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 175 miles from center

Hurricane Florence weakens to Category 3, on path to deliver disaster for days in the Carolinas - CNN

 

[neesaki]

On now, Governor of South Carolina :

“This hurricane is unpredictable.”

Well there ya go.

 

[momrids6]

distance between charleston and wilmington

3 h 26 min (172.2 mi) via US-17 N

she is 500 miles wide

The left turn is my biggest worry- if it hangs offshore then turns left, we are screwed-

 

[CARIIS]

msnbc weather related stuff last year was 360 billion bucks tossed away

we want more missles!

 

[MimosaMornings]

I was in Charlotte when Hurricane Hugo hit and it took us by surprise and no one was prepared. We were without power for weeks and I was out of work for a month. Been thru minor ones due to my field of work but mostly going in immediately after the storm.
Last one I got to experience firsthand was Hurricane Harvey - south of Houston. Weeks of flooding and the aftermath was staggering.

 

[Al Hoffman]

Camp Lejeune is sheltering in place. crazy Marines.

Camp Lejeune

Yeah, that's how Grunts (TM - USMC) roll. Likely, as a group, I believe that they truly feel that no storm would dare to violate Camp Lejune, and will simply pass over. This joined with the fact that the Corps don't give up no ground to nobody willingly, does make for an odd group think. And as Command says in the press release, some Marines have no place to go. The Corps takes care of own!

And how would they safely evacuate all of those weapons? (Even during H. Katrina, the FBI stayed in their new lakefront building for this reason, even after the roof blew off, and the whole area directly flooded from Lake Pontchatrain.)

I hope that dependants have been evacuated. Apparently, if a Marine (and his family) want to 'bug out', that is allowed. Attendance at the storm is apparently NOT mandatory! But, I bet, a lot of the Corps will come back/stay after their families are made safe. Grunts are funny that way, and they do so hate to miss a 'party', and maybe lose future bragging rights. Mark my words, there WILL be a T-Shirt!

The good news is that there will be a Camp full of Warriors ready to render aid and assistance, if the White House signs a Posse Comitatus Act Order, and lets the Devil Dogs (TM -USMC) off of their leash. (Watch the movie "Tank" with James Garner for a laugh and a lesson about the Federal Posse Comitatus Act).

If the Navy Corpsman Fleet Marine School guys are still there (?), they will be a valuable asset who could also contribute to any rescue/recovery effort. If the Grunts are there, there will be Navy Corpsmen in any case.

Jarheads (TM -USN) are an odd lot. But they are who you want to be with, if caught in a jam. Even though garbage cans and them both wear lids.

Posted by a former USNR, non-FMF, Navy Corpsman.

 

[JerseyGirl]

In other news, there's tropical development, called Invest 95L (for now), approaching the Gulf of Mexico, look out Texas and Louisiana!

If the system strengthens to a tropical storm, it most likely will be named Joyce.

Regardless of development of the Gulf system, heavy rain and gusty winds are expected across portions of Louisiana, Texas and Mexico

Tropical system in the Gulf expected to bring rain to Texas, Louisiana

Officials mull lowering Lake Houston 1 foot as tropical disturbance Invest 95L enters Gulf of Mexico

 

[lonetraveler]

The District of Columbia and Maryland join NC, SC, and VA in declaring a State of Emergency.

North Carolina
Dare County officials warned that ocean overwash already was spilling onto low-lying roads and slowing evacuations there.

Virginia
Inland flooding likely to be catastrophic and could test the James River flood walls in Richmond, the state capital.

South Carolina
Mandatory evacuation of 1 million people living along the state’s coastal areas took effect at noon.
Boeing and Volvo shut down their Charleston factories, idling thousands who build 787s and sedans.

Hurricane warnings issued as ‘life-threatening’ Florence strengthens


The Hurricane Center describes the types of damage associated with Category 4 winds:
Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

If Florence makes landfall as a Category 4 in North Carolina, it would be the strongest storm to come ashore that far north on record.

The District of Columbia and Maryland join NC, SC, and VA in declaring a State of Emergency.

North Carolina
Dare County officials warned that ocean overwash already was spilling onto low-lying roads and slowing evacuations there.

Virginia
Inland flooding likely to be catastrophic and could test the James River flood walls in Richmond, the state capital.

South Carolina
Mandatory evacuation of 1 million people living along the state’s coastal areas took effect at noon.
Boeing and Volvo shut down their Charleston factories, idling thousands who build 787s and sedans.

Hurricane warnings issued as ‘life-threatening’ Florence strengthens


The Hurricane Center describes the types of damage associated with Category 4 winds:
Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

If Florence makes landfall as a Category 4 in North Carolina, it would be the strongest storm to come ashore that far north on record.

Actually Hurricane Hazel cat 4 came ashore here on October 15, 1954.

 

[Bravo]

How are you lonetraveler

 

[CARIIS]

Yeah, that's how Grunts (TM - USMC) roll. Likely, as a group, I believe that they truly feel that no storm would dare to violate Camp Lejune, and will simply pass over. This joined with the fact that the Corps don't give up no ground to nobody willingly, does make for an odd group think. And as Command says in the press release, some Marines have no place to go. The Corps takes care of own!

And how would they safely evacuate all of those weapons? (Even during H. Katrina, the FBI stayed in their new lakefront building for this reason, even after the roof blew off, and the whole area directly flooded from Lake Pontchatrain.)

I hope that dependants have been evacuated. Apparently, if a Marine (and his family) want to 'bug out', that is allowed. Attendance at the storm is apparently NOT mandatory! But, I bet, a lot of the Corps will come back/stay after their families are made safe. Grunts are funny that way, and they do so hate to miss a 'party', and maybe lose future bragging rights. Mark my words, there WILL be a T-Shirt!

The good news is that there will be a Camp full of Warriors ready to render aid and assistance, if the White House signs a Posse Comitatus Act Order, and lets the Devil Dogs (TM -USMC) off of their leash. (Watch the movie "Tank" with James Garner for a laugh and a lesson about the Federal Posse Comitatus Act).

If the Navy Corpsman Fleet Marine School guys are still there (?), they will be a valuable asset who could also contribute to any rescue/recovery effort. If the Grunts are there, there will be Navy Corpsmen in any case.

Jarheads (TM -USN) are an odd lot. But they are who you want to be with, if caught in a jam. Even though garbage cans and them both wear lids.

Posted by a former USNR, non-FMF, Navy Corpsman.

there tweet was at this point area get 58 mph

they better not cost taxpayers millions to evacuate 58 mph gust!!

i would hope the base, with tax payers money is strong!

 

[Al Hoffman]

I dont pray

thinking about it tho !

HOnore was incredible -- and both times yesterday (when you trust someone....) one feels more despair for what might happen

I am starting to feel like a daddy begging anyone on here that should be evacuated that chose to ride it out ( I have never made a judgement or anything to anyone's choices ) but these poor people are now in a mess AFTER AFTER that is the key point

there is nothing anyone can do about DURING

but AFTER is our govt job

Up until HOnore yesterday my thoughts about Maria was its location

in the beginning

to learn yesterday that the idiots at the top of fema learned nothing and are now gonna do the same thing again

money



the one just now -- I know nothing and I could have done the presser


just think about this my friends -- apparently even when a monster is coming you put out for national news presser someone that looks and sounds like he would not even be interesting to drink with!

The head of the agency is not the one doing this?? There is a heap of info in that alone

10 o clock and i feel like a cocktail (not really but!)

Please remember that as bad as it looked on TV, 90% of the New Orleans Metro area evacuated before H. Katrina hit. Prior to that NOLA had NEVER evacuated more than 50% of its population prior to ANY hurricane. One look at a monster H. Katrina FILLING the Gulf of Mexico on satellite images convinced most everyone to get out of Dodge. Ray Nagin got that part right.

There are those who will stay, by will or by circumstance, but I think that most will flee inland once they see how massive this storm becomes. I did not evacuate NOLA from H. Katrina till 9:30 p.m. Sunday night, as the first rain bands hit, with a van load of pets and my significant other. I passed many parked police cruisers and vehicles abandoned because they ran out of gas waiting in an I-10 traffic jam headed to Baton Rouge , but there was no traffic in the rain as H. Katrina came on shore. Once I hit the zero marker for I-55 over the spillway and headed North and put the pedal to the metal, H. Katrina was a rapidly receding stormfront in my rear view mirror!