Hurricane Florence - September 2018

[CARIIS]

I was in Charlotte when Hurricane Hugo hit and it took us by surprise and no one was prepared. We were without power for weeks and I was out of work for a month. Been thru minor ones due to my field of work but mostly going in immediately after the storm.
Last one I got to experience firsthand was Hurricane Harvey - south of Houston. Weeks of flooding and the aftermath was staggering.

is this where your fondness for maomisas was born!

 

[CARIIS]

The left turn is my biggest worry- if it hangs offshore then turns left, we are screwed-

pls look at her like from the top like a clock

are you in the clock between noon and three o'clock ?

 

[Jax49]

 

[CARIIS]

Latest developments

• Location: By 2 p.m. Wednesday, the storm was about 435 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.

• Florence's predicted slow southward turn off North Carolina on Friday means some coastal areas will get damaging hurricane-force winds for more than 24 hours. "If this blows at 120 mph for four hours, ... you lose a shingle every two minutes, and all of the sudden, you've lost your whole roof after four hours."

• Florence's circulation could bring life-threatening storm surges, up to 13 feet, to the front-right quadrant of storm -- covering much of North Carolina's coast -- and those effects also could extend to South Carolina, if the storm stalls and turns left as predicted.

• Don't stare at the eye: "We can't focus on the eye on this thing, because (Florence is) 150 miles wide from one side to the other," and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 175 miles from center

Hurricane Florence weakens to Category 3, on path to deliver disaster for days in the Carolinas - CNN

Some meteorologists in the country are reporting the storm is more than 500 miles wide

How big is Hurricane Florence, and answers to other questions

 

[FlossyMay]

I was watching CNN a bit ago. Young couple interviewed. New to the area and never experienced an event like this. Mom hanging on to a young child. They are going to ride it out. I wanted to smack those Parents upside the head and rescue that baby. Father said he wasn't scared or worried. What is wrong with people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think never being in one makes a difference!

And....surviving a dozen of 'em and not believing the "hype."

Around here the news channels tend to go way over the top when there is a weather emergency. I think they do it for ratings. It leaves people very upset when it turns out to be far less than was predicted. I think that makes people less cautious. They think "oh, last time it was nothing like they said it would be." They don't trust the "hype" as ITD said. I think it's always best to plan for the worst, but my anxiety is way over the top in situations like this.

I love these hurricane threads. You guys are just amazing. You are so helpful and comforting. Thanks for the updates and explanations. :hugs:

 

[Lilibet]

I hate to say this, but even though the eye may go somewhere over Wilmington (south of Edenton), the right side, or the onshore hurricane winds and surge will plummet them.

Yes, that worries me too. She’s not on the coast, but on the Chowan River, so I hope that mitigates the surge. She’s not a risk taker, and I trust her judgement, so I hope they made the right call.

 

[CARIIS]

breaking now

according to the president

"bad things can happen"

 

[Bravo]

breaking now

according to the president

"bad things can happen"

Oh-k

 

[CARIIS]

no delete button!

 

[Al Hoffman]

That is useful to know. When I heard about shelters, my first thought was that I would be willing to volunteer to help with kids. I like working with kids and have experience. I would be willing to work with others to provide some relief to families by organizing the kids with activities, food, etc. Then I thought - well, volunteers would need to go through background checks before being allowed to work with children and that takes time. (I'm not in the path or near it so this is all hypothetical for me to think about.)

Assistance for children is something that could be addressed, but it would all need to be set up in advance, of course.

(I wouldn't want to be in a room with screaming kids either!)

jmo

Call your local Red Cross, or check with a local or State Emergency Response Agency (like TEMA for the State of Tennessee).

The Red Cross will train you, certify that you are legal to be around children and welcome your help. They will let you buy a Red Cross jacket, and you can travel (maybe on your own nickel) to help in Red Cross Shelters outside your Metro area if necessary.

TEMA has local classes for people who want to assist in area disasters (like the earthquake from the New Madrid fault we are all waiting for to flatten Memphis and St. Louis, and really hurt Little Rock. The first New Madrid fault earthquake rang church bells in Philadelphia, and changed the course of the Mississippi).

 

[Al Hoffman]

Deleted post

 

[CARIIS]

here is the 5

there is no 10% rule its public

but were getting close so public needs to know IMO what they are finding

500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft along with
satellite imagery and various intensity estimates indicate that
Florence has weakened instead of strengthening. However, while the
hurricane hasn't strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core
and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an
increase the cyclone's total energy, which will create a significant
storm surge event. The upper-level outflow remains impressive and is
still expanding except toward the south.

Florence is moving toward the northwest or 315/14 kt. The new 12Z
global and regional model runs have come into much better agreement
on Florence moving steadily northwestward around a strong ridge
located between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region for the
next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2, Florence is forecast to
approach the southern portion of the North Carolina coast, then slow
down considerably and turn westward within collapsing steering flow,
with a very slow westward motion near the coasts of North and South
Carolina continuing into Friday and Saturday. Corrected-consensus
models HCCA and FSSE remain very close to each other and are quite
similar to the simple consensus model TVCA. Therefore, only a slight
eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36
hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based
on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant
changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still
shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and
western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion
up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.

A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or
so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes
over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat
content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear
conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process.
However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to
Florence's large and expanding inner-core wind field. By 36 h
and beyond, decreasing ocean heat content along with the slowing
forward speed of Florence will likely produce cold upwelling beneath
the hurricane, inducing a gradual weakening trend. When Florence
moves over the shallow coastal shelf waters in 48-72 h, land
interaction and more significant upwelling are anticipated, which
should further enhance the weakening process. The NHC intensity
forecast remains near the higher statistical guidance through 48
hours, then follows the trend of the decay SHIPS model after that
time.

Although the maximum winds are expected to weaken a little more,
Florence is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as
it approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and
rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large
area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early
next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the
coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 30.9N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 33.4N 75.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 33.9N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 15/1800Z 33.6N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 35.6N 83.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

for reference

 

[Jax49]

5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 30.9°N 72.5°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

 

[lonetraveler]

How are you lonetraveler

Things are totally crazy here. Many stores and businesses are closed. Found a Harris teeter open this morning and grabbed more water and food since this storm is going to be here for awhile. Generator is gassed up and ready. Everything is secured and put away. Propane is stored and grills and cookers stored. extra toilet paper, plates, medicine, snacks and yes, wine and beer.
Everyone is nervous. My daughter and my two grandchildren will be here prior to the curfew that starts at 8 pm. Have chargers for phones and laptops for my car which is in the garage.

Everyone is riveted to tvs and latest tracks. People are being evacuated along the rivers and coastal areas. Marines are coming in to help National Guard.
It's wait and see.

 

[Bravo]

Thanks for replying lonetraveler. Stay safe. All of you affected by this monster.

 

[zencompass]

Please remember that as bad as it looked on TV, 90% of the New Orleans Metro area evacuated before H. Katrina hit. Prior to that NOLA had NEVER evacuated more than 50% of its population prior to ANY hurricane. One look at a monster H. Katrina FILLING the Gulf of Mexico on satellite images convinced most everyone to get out of Dodge. Ray Nagin got that part right.

There are those who will stay, by will or by circumstance, but I think that most will flee inland once they see how massive this storm becomes. I did not evacuate NOLA from H. Katrina till 9:30 p.m. Sunday night, as the first rain bands hit, with a van load of pets and my significant other. I passed many parked police cruisers and vehicles abandoned because they ran out of gas waiting in an I-10 traffic jam headed to Baton Rouge , but there was no traffic in the rain as H. Katrina came on shore. Once I hit the zero marker for I-55 over the spillway and headed North and put the pedal to the metal, H. Katrina was a rapidly receding stormfront in my rear view mirror!

Dear Al Hoffman,

What a frightening experience you had! I am thankful that you and your loved ones are okay.

You and @JerseyGirl have enlightened me as to the reality of the situations you've experienced.

I look forward to your posts because, in addition to your kindness, I always learn something.

Thank you for the informative and compassionate posts. I am so glad you are here on this thread.

 

[CARIIS]

Things are totally crazy here. Many stores and businesses are closed. Found a Harris teeter open this morning and grabbed more water and food since this storm is going to be here for awhile. Generator is gassed up and ready. Everything is secured and put away. Propane is stored and grills and cookers stored. extra toilet paper, plates, medicine, snacks and yes, wine and beer.
Everyone is nervous. My daughter and my two grandchildren will be here prior to the curfew that starts at 8 pm. Have chargers for phones and laptops for my car which is in the garage.

Everyone is riveted to tvs and latest tracks. People are being evacuated along the rivers and coastal areas. Marines are coming in to help National Guard.
It's wait and see.

which is the hardest part

know we are thinking and caring about you and your loved ones

 

[SuziQ]

Yeah, that's how Grunts (TM - USMC) roll. Likely, as a group, I believe that they truly feel that no storm would dare to violate Camp Lejune, and will simply pass over. This joined with the fact that the Corps don't give up no ground to nobody willingly, does make for an odd group think. And as Command says in the press release, some Marines have no place to go. The Corps takes care of own!

And how would they safely evacuate all of those weapons? (Even during H. Katrina, the FBI stayed in their new lakefront building for this reason, even after the roof blew off, and the whole area directly flooded from Lake Pontchatrain.)

I hope that dependants have been evacuated. Apparently, if a Marine (and his family) want to 'bug out', that is allowed. Attendance at the storm is apparently NOT mandatory! But, I bet, a lot of the Corps will come back/stay after their families are made safe. Grunts are funny that way, and they do so hate to miss a 'party', and maybe lose future bragging rights. Mark my words, there WILL be a T-Shirt!

The good news is that there will be a Camp full of Warriors ready to render aid and assistance, if the White House signs a Posse Comitatus Act Order, and lets the Devil Dogs (TM -USMC) off of their leash. (Watch the movie "Tank" with James Garner for a laugh and a lesson about the Federal Posse Comitatus Act).

If the Navy Corpsman Fleet Marine School guys are still there (?), they will be a valuable asset who could also contribute to any rescue/recovery effort. If the Grunts are there, there will be Navy Corpsmen in any case.

Jarheads (TM -USN) are an odd lot. But they are who you want to be with, if caught in a jam. Even though garbage cans and them both wear lids.

Posted by a former USNR, non-FMF, Navy Corpsman.

i love this! Too hilarious. I'm gonna guess there will be a massive party. And at the peak of the storm, they will use their woobies to attempt flight. Proud MoM here. My son got his dd214 in July. I know he wishes he was there right now!

 

[Sillybilly]

People are coming to this thread to read about and discuss Hurricane Florence, not racial issues and Hurricane Katrina.

Reminder that introducing racial discussion results in Warning points that remain on a user's account permanently. That doesn't leave a lot of room for any other minor infractions.

Please stay on topic.

 

[MaryG12]

Hurricane Florence grows larger as it bears down on Carolinas with ‘life-threatening’ fury

Decreasing modestly in strength but expanding in size, Category 3 Hurricane Florence is less than 48 hours from making landfall on the Southeast coast with catastrophic impacts, from damaging winds to flash flooding to widespread power outages.