Hurricane Florence - September 2018

[MaryG12]

Oh my gosh. That's quite the storm! I just read the weather advisory (including a flood advisory) for that area. Stay safe, my friend!

I will!

Need to get to bed soon too.

Hope everyone on WS in Florence's path is safe!

 

[Jax49]

Edited to remove image...it didn't post correctly.

I've been looking at the Orange line for days and hoping it turns out to be correct. Anything to get her off the coast.

Adding link: Florence : BoatUS Hurricane Tracking & Resource Center

 

[FlossyMay]

Edited to remove image...it didn't post correctly.

I've been looking at the Orange line for days and hoping it turns out to be correct. Anything to get her off the coast.

Adding link: Florence : BoatUS Hurricane Tracking & Resource Center

Weird. Why is it doing that?

 

[Jax49]

But it's way out of position.

ETA: Not a clue. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

 

[Al Hoffman]

breaking now

according to the president

"bad things can happen"

Is that why the military officer with the "Football" is now hiding in the restroom, sitting on the brass flusher, with his feet on the seat, and the nucular codes clutched in his lap, so that the Secret Service can't find him?

I'm waiting for the next tweet: "Scientists on Fox tell me that dropping a really big nucular bomb in the eye of this tremendous storm will remove this terrible threat to our country" (This WAS proposed by some scientists in the 1950's, under the "Atoms for peace" initiative)

 

[Al Hoffman]

Dear Al Hoffman,

What a frightening experience you had! I am thankful that you and your loved ones are okay.

You and @JerseyGirl have enlightened me as to the reality of the situations you've experienced.

I look forward to your posts because, in addition to your kindness, I always learn something.

Thank you for the informative and compassionate posts. I am so glad you are here on this thread.

Da nada. Hurricanes are like big bears, if you see either coming in your direction, go the other way.

 

[Jax49]

11:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 32.0°N 73.7°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

 

[Happygo]

HEard that 800 FEMA trailers left Birmingham this morning heading up to the Carolinas with provisions so they are getting ready.

 

[1&2&3]

My son and family got out of Raleigh this morning when the direction from yesterday was pointing towards them after hitting land at Wrightsville Beach/Wilmington, NC.

They have a beautiful home at Wrightsville Beach. It is one row off the ocean but the inlet is behind their house. The house is built up on stilts, as I like to say, but from what is predicted, we are in a “wait and see”. Houses can be repaired, lives cannot be if this storm is what is forecasted.

Prayers for everyone that is in any path that could be affected.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Thanks for the complement, but I don't have a crystal ball, and I can't tell you what FEMA may do next!

I would just as soon guess which way a cockroach will run when you turn the light on.

They will likely preposition more food, water and supplies, inland along the coast. They likely are now loading trailers from warehouses (both Government and private contractors) waiting to see just where this storm will go next. There could be severe flooding South down the coast to and through Florida (look what the recent hurricane to skirt Hawaii did at 5 mph) as the storm skirts the coast heading south to even warmer waters. This storm could also cross Florida and reform in the Gulf of Mexico (extreme case scenario).

Though they are not cogsigent, hurricanes don't "like" high pressure areas, but will go towards low pressure areas (in general). They don't "like" to go ashore where they will break-up and "die", especially if the forward speed is slow enough to turn and avoid landfall. Come on guys, please start thinking like Nash Roberts!

There is (or was) a Bermuda high to the north, and a low pressure area (and a developing storm) to the far South, with a low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico to the Southwest, all of which this storm may follow like a drunk sailor heading for loud music, neon lights and cold beer, or hot southern waters, and a low hanging atmospheric pressure bottom if a drunk hurricane!

If I ever get stuck in a bar during a hurricane, I want it to be sitting next to you to laugh and make jokes!

Your comment of "I would just as soon guess which way a cockroach will run when you turn the light on" is killing me with laughter, and if I was smart enough, I would redo this with cockroaches instead of spaghetti on it!

 

[MimosaMornings]

is this where your fondness for maomisas was born!

Actually it was more like cheap beer and rum and cokes back then in my youth lol.

Mimosas started during a vacation with the entire family in one house and it rained all week due to a tropical depression. One of the beaches along 30A Florida.

Started a family tradition!

 

[CARIIS]

11

74
WTNT41 KNHC 130249
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Satellite data and reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
significant changes in the structure of Florence and the
environment near the storm since the last advisory. Microwave
satellite imagery shows that the convection on the southern side of
the storm has been disrupted, and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than
50 percent of the way around the center. The aircraft also reports
that the hurricane again has concentric wind maxima, the inner at a
radius 20-30 n mi and the outer at 50-60 n mi. The convection seems
to have been affected by 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear,
most of which appears to be due to strong winds between 200-250 mb
seen in dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet. The central
pressure has risen to 957 mb, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds reported so far are 103 kt. Based on the latter data, the
initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.

The initial motion is 315/15. During the next 12-36 hours, the
hurricane is expected to turn toward the west-northwest and west
with a decrease in forward speed as it moves into an area of
weakening steering currents near and over the southeastern United
States. The new forecast track now brings the center onshore in
southern North Carolina near the 36 h point. After landfall, the
cyclone should move slowly westward to west-southwestward through
the 72 h point, then it should turn northwestward to northward by
the end of the forecast period as it moves through the Appalachian
Mountains. The new forecast track lies between the HCCA corrected
consensus model and the other consensus aids, and it is nudged just
a little to the north of the previous track.

The dynamical models forecast the current shear to subside after
6-12 h as Florence moves farther from an upper-level low currently
near northeastern Florida. This, combined with sea surface
temperatures near 29C, would allow a last chance for strengthening
before landfall. However, the storm structure, particularly the
large outer wind maxima, would likely be slow to respond to the
more favorable environment. The pre-landfall part of the intensity
forecast thus calls for little change in strength, but given the
uncertainties the confidence in this is low. After landfall,
Florence should gradually weaken during the 36-48 h period while
the center is near the coast, then weaken more quickly when the
center moves farther inland.

While Florence has weakened below major hurricane intensity, the
wind field of the hurricane continues to grow in size. This
evolution will produce storm surges similar to that of a more
intense, but smaller, hurricane, and thus the storm surge values
seen in the previous advisory are still valid. The threat of
rainfall has also not diminished, and these impacts will cover a
large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.



Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion

 

[Al Hoffman]

Dear @Al Hoffman,

Interesting you mention power lines. I was just reading this article about line crews cutting down branches before the hurricane hits.

It's astounding how much preparation is done in advance of this.

Crews work to remove branches near power lines ahead of Hurricane Florence

Linesman do a phenomenal job repairing and maintaining our nation's crumbling infrastructure. They do the very best they can, with the electrical grid system they are given to maintain.

Unfortunately, the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) gave the U.S. a "D+" report card grade for the overall condition of our roads, dams, ports, rail, power systems, and other infrastructure. They gave our power system a "D". There are utility poles, currently transmitting power, on the Westbank of New Orleans that my father put in place by hand, with a line gang crew, a decade or more before my birth in 1957.

When President Obama said to businesses that "you didn't build that road" (and was pilloried for it), this was what he was talking about. 70% of our electrical grid is older than 25 years, some parts are even older, like the DC 30 cycle generators that power the massive pre-Katrina pump system that keeps New Orleans dry, they were built over 100 years ago. The average power plant is 30 years old. The problem is when a storm like H. Florence comes through and blows down an age weakened utility pole that was put in place the year President Kennedy was shot.

This is all part of Hurricane and storm preparedness. Today on the local news, here in Memphis, the local utility company announced a sweeping new initiative to repair its electrical transmission infrastructure, and that will mean higher bills. That is OK by me, as I did not have any AC over this past 90 degree Labor Day weekend because an underground connection installed in the 70's burned out.

 

[Al Hoffman]

Regarding power outages and line repairs:

Excerpt from news article (link is below):

"Duke Energy North Carolina President David Fountain said Florence is so massive and its potential for damage so extensive that people could be without power for a very long time. Fountain said most storms are an inconvenience, "but Hurricane Florence will be a life-changing event for many people here in the Carolinas."

"The company said it is already shifting thousands of power workers from its Midwest and Florida regions and getting added workers from as far away as Texas. "



"Don't play games with it": Hurricane Florence, weakens slightly, as it churns toward East Coast

It was during H. Betsy ('65) or H. Camille ('69) that one enterprising fellow spent all his spare time stealing all the charged 12 volt batteries he could find from parked cars both during and after the storm, to keep an Iron Lung ventilator going for a paralyzed patient until either the power came back on or what passed for EMS back in the day could evacuate the patient. I think that NOPD may have caught him stealing the batteries, thinking that at first he was a looter, but he took them back to the home bound patient in the Iron Lung, and they helped to arrange for the evacuation.

At Charity Hospital in New Orleans, during and after H. Katrina, teams worked around the clock, for days, to hand bag ventilator patients, after the power went out, until they could be taken across flooded Tulane Ave to be air evacuated from the roof of Tulane Hospital. I think the CHNO generators were on the ground floor or in the basement, but the hospital was without back-up power because of the flooding.

You really don't really know how good you have it, until the power goes out!

 

[Al Hoffman]

HEard that 800 FEMA trailers left Birmingham this morning heading up to the Carolinas with provisions so they are getting ready.

I hope they are filled with Beer and MREs. You have NO idea how disappointed many of New Orleans' "chronic" drinkers" were when they stood in line, in the hot sun, for food and drink, and were given a silver can with a black Anheuser-Bush logo on the front, only to open it to find pure water canned on the beer plant can line for FEMA.

 

[mickey2942]

The worst is the never ending rain bands, even people who are not in the path of the hurricane, with a big storm like this, it is the slow moving rain, 30 inches in 2 days, happened to us in Florida. And the water has no where to go. It stays for weeks, because the ground is saturated.

 

[Al Hoffman]

If I ever get stuck in a bar during a hurricane, I want it to be sitting next to you to laugh and make jokes!

Your comment of "I would just as soon guess which way a cockroach will run when you turn the light on" is killing me with laughter, and if I was smart enough, I would redo this with cockroaches instead of spaghetti on it!


View attachment 146929

There was a bar in the French Quarter, in New Orleans, that never closed before, during or after H. Katrina. They could not get the hard core drinkers to leave, and the water only got ankle deep in the street in the Quarter, with little or none in the bar, so they just closed the patio doors to keep the rain out, went to candles and a cash box when the power went out, and served warm beer, mixed drinks, and MREs. There were a pile of blankets on the bar if you need one.
The Times-Picayune ( The New Orleans newspaper) wrote a story about it.

Ask yourself: What would they do in Key West?
(And there are plenty of characters funnier than me at that bar!)

The FEMA workers, contractors, assisting LE and others keep the French Quarter bars, restaurants and exotic dancers in the black.

See you at Johnny White's for a warm drink and a shared MRE.

The Times-Picayune Food section did a full 2 page review of all of the available MRE meals. Common public consensus was to stay away from the scrambled eggs. Also, they had to tell New Orleanians that you weren't supposed to eat 3 MREs a day. I liked most of them, no worse than a frozen Banquet TV dinner or Chef Boyardee canned pasta. And where else are you going to get a hot meal cooked with a capfull of water. MREs have this nifty little heater sleeve that heats your pouch meal when you pour water in it. As I was living in a carport at the time, it looked like a real good deal.

Your "spaghetti" plot is just fine as is....LOL indeed!

 

[otto]

Weird. Why is it doing that?

The barrier weather system is blocking the hurricane from turning out to sea, but it has yet to be seen whether the hurricane or barrier system hits the coast first.

 

[otto]

Is that why the military officer with the "Football" is now hiding in the restroom, sitting on the brass flusher, with his feet on the seat, and the nucular codes clutched in his lap, so that the Secret Service can't find him?

I'm waiting for the next tweet: "Scientists on Fox tell me that dropping a really big nucular bomb in the eye of this tremendous storm will remove this terrible threat to our country" (This WAS proposed by some scientists in the 1950's, under the "Atoms for peace" initiative)

BBM

Presumably scientists in the 1950s thought that dropping a nuclear bomb will change weather patterns? I remember it differently.

 

[otto]

My son and family got out of Raleigh this morning when the direction from yesterday was pointing towards them after hitting land at Wrightsville Beach/Wilmington, NC.

They have a beautiful home at Wrightsville Beach. It is one row off the ocean but the inlet is behind their house. The house is built up on stilts, as I like to say, but from what is predicted, we are in a “wait and see”. Houses can be repaired, lives cannot be if this storm is what is forecasted.

Prayers for everyone that is in any path that could be affected.

Hopefully the stilts will make the difference.