IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #13

[Bootsctr]

It does work, to me. Perfectly in fact.

Mr Pahl says LE are working with an 8 minute time frame.

That gives them perfect time to get to the lake, at an average speed.

It then takes a quick second to snatch them off their bikes.

TG comes along at 12.20 with his ipod on, swerves past the bikes, doesn't even see the girls, keeps going. The girls may even have still been in the wooded area, with the perp.

Once TG is gone, the perp had all afternoon. No one else has confirmed seeing the bikes until they were found by LE at nearly 4, implying to me at least, no one else went down the pathway that afternoon.


:moo:

I lived close to two lakes as a child. The bike ride to get the lakes was always so fun because the paths were mostly downhill. You could go really fast. Now the trips back home weren't nearly as fun as I would be worn out from swimming and it was always uphill to get back home. Sometimes even got off the bike to push it home.

 

[Wishbone]

It does work, to me. Perfectly in fact.

Mr Pahl says LE are working with an 8 minute time frame.

That gives them perfect time to get to the lake, at an average speed.

It then takes a quick second to snatch them off their bikes.

TG comes along at 12.20 with his ipod on, swerves past the bikes, doesn't even see the girls, keeps going. The girls may even have still been in the wooded area, with the perp.

Once TG is gone, the perp had all afternoon. No one else has confirmed seeing the bikes until they were found by LE at nearly 4, implying to me at least, no one else went down the pathway that afternoon.


:moo:

IMHO I just can't make it work


Pahl is the manager of Cornbelt Auctions, 3520 Lafayette Road, where a 24-hour camera captured the footage from its position behind the building. The time and date stamp — 12:11 p.m. July 13 — fits the police timeline of the case.

However, Pahl said the camera’s clock is eight minutes slower than his U.S. Cellular phone.


(Add 8 minutes to 12:11 and it is 12:19 when shot was taken. That gives 1 minute to get the bikes down to the lake trail. Can't see it.)

About 4 p.m. the youngsters’ bikes and Collins’ purse were found on the south side of Meyers Lake. Ted Gamerdinger of Waterloo, a bicyclist who said he often rides the Evansdale Nature Trail, has previously told The Courier he saw the two kids’ bikes on the trail at about 12:20 p.m., but no sign of the children.




http://m.wcfcourier.com/news/evansd...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[SapphireSteel]

The timestamp on the video is 12:11 and is supposedly 8 minutes slow ... so that puts us to 12:19 for the girls being seen on video. The cyclist called his daughter at 12:27 from the gas station where he used the washroom. That places him at the trail at about 12:20. It seems to me that the cyclist's tip doesn't fit with other facts. The FBI have stated that there was a "runner" or jogger that was on the trail, saw the bikes and has an accurate time.

We have never heard that the cyclist saw the bikes at the gate, so it's possible that he saw bikes on the ground at a different location. Since police have verified the video, I think that's the only timeline we have. Since the cyclist's daughter posted on facebook, maybe she should ask him where along the trail he saw the bikes ... clear this up once and for all.

It's the only officially confirmed time.

I'm going with the officially unconfirmed time, per Mr Pahl (who is in a position to know) which is 8 minutes.

Wasn't there a movie of that name?

If you go with 8 minutes, the timing not only fits, it fits like a glove.

:moo:

 

[CHERIE.T]

Right now, I don't think it's matters which way they left on the path, which path, where the bikes were placed. What needs to be concentrated on is who did it.

Of the most importance imoo is finding the girls.
Followed by who did it.

 

[otto]

It does work, to me. Perfectly in fact.

Mr Pahl says LE are working with an 8 minute time frame.

That gives them perfect time to get to the lake, at an average speed.

It then takes a quick second to snatch them off their bikes.

TG comes along at 12.20 with his ipod on, swerves past the bikes, doesn't even see the girls, keeps going. The girls may even have still been in the wooded area, with the perp.

Once TG is gone, the perp had all afternoon. No one else has confirmed seeing the bikes until they were found by LE at nearly 4, implying to me at least, no one else went down the pathway that afternoon.


:moo:

With the camera being 8 minutes slow, placing the girls in the video at 12:19, the timeline doesn't make sense unless we exclude the cyclist.

"Mr Pahl is the manager of Cornbelt Auctions, 3520 Lafayette Road, where a 24-hour camera captured the footage from its position behind the building. The time and date stamp — 12:11 p.m. July 13 — fits the police timeline of the case.

However, Mr. Pahl said the camera’s clock is eight minutes slower than his U.S. Cellular phone."

http://m.wcfcourier.com/news/evansd...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[SapphireSteel]

IMHO I just can't make it work


Pahl is the manager of Cornbelt Auctions, 3520 Lafayette Road, where a 24-hour camera captured the footage from its position behind the building. The time and date stamp — 12:11 p.m. July 13 — fits the police timeline of the case.

However, Pahl said the camera’s clock is eight minutes slower than his U.S. Cellular phone.


(Add 8 minutes to 12:11 and it is 12:19 when shot was taken. That gives 1 minute to get the bikes down to the lake trail. Can't see it.)

About 4 p.m. the youngsters’ bikes and Collins’ purse were found on the south side of Meyers Lake. Ted Gamerdinger of Waterloo, a bicyclist who said he often rides the Evansdale Nature Trail, has previously told The Courier he saw the two kids’ bikes on the trail at about 12:20 p.m., but no sign of the children.




http://m.wcfcourier.com/news/evansd...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

One of the blessings of my condition (wow never thought I'd say that) is I get to ignore the numbers and concentrate on the instinct.

My instinct tells me that

1. the FBI are smart enough to figure out time variations etc
2. Mr Pahl was there with them and says they are working with 8 minutes.

therefore my instinct tells me Mr Pahl is a guy who would know the "inside" story as it were, and my gut tells me he is not mistaken nor misled.

Of course, as always, just my opinion.

:moo:

 

[otto]

I lived close to two lakes as a child. The bike ride to get the lakes was always so fun because the paths were mostly downhill. You could go really fast. Now the trips back home weren't nearly as fun as I would be worn out from swimming and it was always uphill to get back home. Sometimes even got off the bike to push it home.

There are about 10 intersections between the video footage and where the trail begins at the park. I really doubt that the girls powered through 1.5 miles and 10 intersections in less than 5 minutes.

 

[Wishbone]

The timestamp on the video is 12:11 and is supposedly 8 minutes slow ... so that puts us to 12:19 for the girls being seen on video. The cyclist called his daughter at 12:27 from the gas station where he used the washroom. That places him at the trail at about 12:20. It seems to me that the cyclist's tip doesn't fit with other facts. The FBI have stated that there was a "runner" or jogger that was on the trail, saw the bikes and has an accurate time.

We have never heard that the cyclist saw the bikes at the gate, so it's possible that he saw bikes on the ground at a different location. Since police have verified the video, I think that's the only timeline we have. Since the cyclist's daughter posted on facebook, maybe she should ask him where along the trail he saw the bikes ... clear this up once and for all.

I wish LE would clear up the timeline and bona fide sightings but they just aren't giving out much information.

 

[Bootsctr]

The timestamp on the video is 12:11 and is supposedly 8 minutes slow ... so that puts us to 12:19 for the girls being seen on video. The cyclist called his daughter at 12:27 from the gas station where he used the washroom. That places him at the trail at about 12:20. It seems to me that the cyclist's tip doesn't fit with other facts. The FBI have stated that there was a "runner" or jogger that was on the trail, saw the bikes and has an accurate time.

We have never heard that the cyclist saw the bikes at the gate, so it's possible that he saw bikes on the ground at a different location. Since police have verified the video, I think that's the only timeline we have. Since the cyclist's daughter posted on facebook, maybe she should ask him where along the trail he saw the bikes ... clear this up once and for all.

I think from the wonderful picture you posted yesterday, the bikes were right in the curve of the road where trees obscure part of the trail. TG was coming at a fast clip, bike or bikes were partially in the trail, partially hidden by tall grass. He's not really expecting anything to be in the road so he may have been down if he was clocking himself and look up and there are the bikes. The perp already has the girls and they are hidden from view. He sees TG narrowly miss the bikes and decides to move the bikes to the gate which isn't that far from that little curve to make sure no one gets curious about the bikes along the trail. Plus putting the bikes by the gate makes me think anyone who saw the bikes by the gate knew maiden lane would not be a good place to take bikes and figured the girls parked the bikes there and had actually went along the shoreline to explore, look at rocks, etc.

Someone had previously talked about how easy it is to knock someone off a bicycle by stepping out and surprising them. I think that is what happened right before TG encountered the bikes. For all we know, the wheels could have still been spinning when TG passed them.

 

[SapphireSteel]

There are about 10 intersections between the video footage and where the trail begins at the park. I really doubt that the girls powered through 1.5 miles and 10 intersections in less than 5 minutes.

How about 8 minutes?

 

[otto]

It's the only officially confirmed time.

I'm going with the officially unconfirmed time, per Mr Pahl (who is in a position to know) which is 8 minutes.

Wasn't there a movie of that name?

If you go with 8 minutes, the timing not only fits, it fits like a glove.

:moo:

How does it fit? The owner of the camera has stated that the 12:11 timestamp is incorrect by 8 minutes, that it was in fact 12:19 when the girls rode their bikes in the alley. One minute later, the cyclist saw one or two bikes at a curve in the path. There is no curve in the path at the gate. It is impossible for the girls to navigate 1.5 miles and 10 intersections in one minute.

 

[CHERIE.T]

I think there is a reason they ran to the lake to look and they dont want to say why!

Why did this little girl have that cell phone?
To play games? what games could that phone have on it for a child?
Solitare?

I can understand kids taking mom and dads old cell phone and pretend to talk on it but these are not 5 and 6 yr olds?
Was that phone for 911 call? Was it charged?

Lyric wanted to run away! And this was only days before she went missing and i dont think it was about doing chores but thats just my opinion!
I think maybe this little girl wants to get away... and unfortunately ended up in the wrong hands!

No matter how many times u tell your kids to not go with strangers they DO!

:rocker:

I believe so too Eileen. I agree with all you said.
WHY were the girls maybe lead to the lake or twards the lake?

 

[cindersoot]

There are about 10 intersections between the video footage and where the trail begins at the park. I really doubt that the girls powered through 1.5 miles and 10 intersections in less than 5 minutes.

That is the direct path (the bike trail through town) that I have always thought the girls took straight to where the bikes were found.

 

[Wishbone]

One of the blessings of my condition (wow never thought I'd say that) is I get to ignore the numbers and concentrate on the instinct.

My instinct tells me that

1. the FBI are smart enough to figure out time variations etc
2. Mr Pahl was there with them and says they are working with 8 minutes.

therefore my instinct tells me Mr Pahl is a guy who would know the "inside" story as it were, and my gut tells me he is not mistaken nor misled.

Of course, as always, just my opinion.

:moo:

Your opinions are fine and I wish I could be more certain with what i think but I just don't have the information I need. When this thing first happened I thought that the two girls fell in a well or river or something similar. Then I thought someone in the area had them held hostage in a basement nearby and then just about every other senario I could come up with....Now, I just don't know what to think because none of my facts add up. Guess I'll have to wait and see what gets revealed next.........

 

[SapphireSteel]

There are about 10 intersections between the video footage and where the trail begins at the park. I really doubt that the girls powered through 1.5 miles and 10 intersections in less than 5 minutes.

Sorry but I think this route is incorrect.

Mr Carpenter (who sighted the girls that day) lives on Lake Ave, which would imply to me that they travelled straight down S Evans Ave, turned left to Gilbert, right to Lake which leads directly to Arbutus.

:moo:

 

[Wishbone]

Sorry but I think this route is incorrect.

Mr Carpenter (who sighted the girls that day) lives on Lake Ave, which would imply to me that they travelled straight down S Evans Ave, turned left to Gilbert, right to Lake which leads directly to Arbutus.

:moo:

Here I go speculating again. If we are to believe Mr Carpenter then the girls had to have gone down the street he lives on. But, here again no official confirmation from LE.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Here I go speculating again. If we are to believe Mr Carpenter then the girls had to have gone down the street he lives on. But, here again no official confirmation from LE.

Again, intuition.

I know these guys. Not them personally, but guys like them.

Mr G, Mr P and Mr C, they are all older, respectable gentlemen of comparative means, involved in local commerce and communities. The are as honest as the day is long and pretty much "salt of the earth".

They have absolutely zero reason to embroider. I have zero reason to disbelieve any of them, so my gut is...

8 minutes, the shortest route, going like the wind because they were on a mission of some sort.

It fits so perfectly, its scary.

:moo:

 

[Bootsctr]

How about 8 minutes?

Pahl is the manager of Cornbelt Auctions, 3520 Lafayette Road, where a 24-hour camera captured the footage from its position behind the building. The time and date stamp — 12:11 p.m. July 13 — fits the police timeline of the case.

However, Pahl said the camera’s clock is eight minutes slower than his U.S. Cellular phone.

About 4 p.m. the youngsters’ bikes and Collins’ purse were found on the south side of Meyers Lake. Ted Gamerdinger of Waterloo, a bicyclist who said he often rides the Evansdale Nature Trail, has previously told The Courier he saw the two kids’ bikes on the trail at about 12:20 p.m., but no sign of the children.
http://m.wcfcourier.com/news/evansd...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

I definitely think this article the FBI is going by the time stamp specifically on the camera. Mr. Pahl said the clockon the camera is slower than his cell phone.... maybe his cellular phone is not correct. I have been known to set my clocks a little faster, so I will actually hurry and get to appointments on time....I tend to procrastinate. TG only states at about 12:20, could have been sooner than that or even later. Looking at the rate of speed the girls are traveling on the video, I do believe they could have made it to the lake within 8 minutes, maybe it was 10minutes. It was close I believe. Thanks to Wishbone for posting the link.

 

[Wishbone]

Again, intuition.

I know these guys. Not them personally, but guys like them.

Mr G, Mr P and Mr C, they are all older, respectable gentlemen of comparative means, involved in local commerce and goings on. The are as honest as the day is long and pretty much "salt of the earth".

They have absolutely zero reason to embroider. I have zero reason to disbelieve any of them, so my gut is...

8 minutes, the shortest route, going like the wind because they were on a mission of some sort.

It fits so perfectly, its scary.



:moo:

His three hour timeframe strikes me as being pretty vague.

 

[MotherOcean]

IMO, and as hard as I try, I just can’t get those bikes to where they were left if I use the time on the video cam near Elizabeth’s home and also the visual sighting of the bikes by TG. That puts me back at square one on what to think. I either have to discount TG or the video or maybe both……I just know the timeline does not work.

I totally agree! I personally discount TG's statement. I threw his statement out of the scenerio before the second video was released. If I didn't throw him out of the timeline then I have him and the girls at the exact same spot at the same time, within mere moments. That does not work for me. And now that the second video has the girls by Elizabeth's home @ 12:19, it definately doesn't work at all.