I personally feel like when the bikes were spotted somewhere around 12:20 near the gate, that the abduction had already taken place. I think it happened very fast, I think no later than they got to the lake they were abducted (haven't decided imo if they were abducted on the lake side of the fence or the trail side).
I think it was someone (a pedophile) that knew the girls would likely be in the area at some point, based on the girls' frequency in the area, and the perp sat there and waited for them (I haven't decided if the perp was waiting on maiden lane, on the trail, on the lake, or at a house near the lake or lake ave, or if the girls went there to specifically meet up with this person).
I feel like although it could have likely been a stranger, it may have also even been someone they knew, or had seen before, but in my opinion it wasn't someone they trusted very much either way. The reason I think that is because to me the purse indicates a possible struggle, surprise attack, or being threatened into throwing the purse down, or maybe the perp threw it himself? I feel like if it were someone the girls trusted a lot that there wouldn't have had to be any kind of purse throwing down/dropping at the spot where it was found. I feel the perp could have just easily lured them voluntarily to a vehicle (or house) if they trusted the person a great deal (and it would have also been more beneficial to the perp to do it that way if they could), and then there wouldn't have had to be any altercation near the area where the purse was found, causing the purse to be left on the ground where it was.
I think there wasn't any screaming heard because the perp had a weapon and threatened them.
I apologize that this didn't really add anything new to the discussion or theories, but it's where I'm at right now.
Questions I'm wondering are:
1) When did the girls start riding their bikes on Lake Ave, was it a fairly recent development or was it happening even before summer break?
2) The carpenters said Elizabeth in particular is friendly with some of the people in the neighborhood and sometimes stops and talks to people. Which people?
3) Was the gate leading to the lake open or closed?
4) When Lyric was thought to be missing a few days prior to their abduction, where was she at and why was she late?