IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #24

[SoBeCzar]

I've been fairly convinced from early on that this was someone local ... but that conclusion was made because of Maiden Lane.

Whether the bikes were staged or the girls were abducted at the drainage pipe gate at Meyers Lake, I've always believed that the perp accessed the area via Maiden Lane. It is perfectly secluded and no one would notice anything happening at a vehicle that was part way down that lane. That suggested to me that it was someone local. Now, with the bodies being found at another secluded Park that would be known by locals, it re-inforces my belief that it is someone local.

I looked at maps of the area over the decades (thanks to Ollipop for finding the historic maps) a few months ago. The area appeared to be a party spot until the last decade, so someone in their 30s would have known about Maiden Lane as a party spot. Even Wylma knew about Maiden Lane.

Thanks for the info about Maiden Lane. Definitely a local. And Seven Bridges may indicate a hunter.

 

[chelsea6]

lol I was refering to Jessica Ridgeways killer in that sentence. Sry. I see how it was confusing.

Oh, now I feel so stupid!! lol Sorry!! :blushing:

 

[otto]

One other thought I was wondering about. The bodies weren't buried. They say killers go back to the bodies sometimes. If this guy did, wouldn't he have decided to bury them with all the publicity this case has? Did he really think no one would find them or did like going back to see them? I know many killers do not bury the bodies but I think this killer didn't feel guilt over what he had done. If it were someone that knew them I am sure they would have returned to bury them. That is a lot of guilt to have thinking about them just laying out there.

I don't think that there is any guilt on behalf of the murderer. I doubt that he had any interest in burying the bodies. It's quite likely that after 4-5 months, he (or they) were fairly confident that no one would discover the children. It's possible that, if their clothes had not been with them, they wouldn't have been noticed or found for years.

 

[carbuff]

I don't think that there is any guilt on behalf of the murderer. I doubt that he had any interest in burying the bodies. It's quite likely that after 4-5 months, he (or they) were fairly confident that no one would discover the children. It's possible that, if their clothes had not been with them, they wouldn't have been noticed or found for years.

I don't think he cared whether they were found or not as long as it was long enough that he wouldn't be associated with them.

 

[iamnotagolem]

Casey on Lafayette, River Front, Elk Run Heights and the location where the girls were found

Thanks this is awesome, so suppose a delivery guy (pop, chips, whatever they deliver) works his way through the Waterloo Casey's then into Evansdale working his way east. He stops at the one on Lafayette, then the one on Forest River, then Elk Run. He picks up the girls after his Lafayette stop then dumps the bikes by the lake. Maybe they weren't staged, maybe he drove by there, he is probably local and figured it'd buy him some time.

After Elk Run he has his "lunch break" and probably 45-60 min travel time before he's expected at Fairbank. That gives him time to do what he wants with the girls before his next stop. 7 bridges park is only 1 mile out of his way for his route to Fairbank.

If he is local to the area, he'd have a route that probably covered a good bit of area. He might have started his day at the furthest location he serviced then worked his way back home, passing through evansdale on his way.

Just trying to think outside the box here, since we can't find anyone inside the box.

 

[SapphireSteel]

The bikes were found in a relatively secluded spot. Many of us feel this means the perp was local, since a non-local would not have found this spot easily.

There is actually no road or carpark in the area, just an informal grassed parking spot that only locals know about.

I know all that stuff about people being mistaken, eyewitnesses etc, but if you watch Mr C on youtube, he is quite positive, and so is his wife.

These people know very well who they saw and when they saw them, in my opinion.

Also, we know the girls were one of the very few out on bicycles that day, away from the lake itself, if not the only two. Certainly they were the only ones to bike past the Auction Rooms all day. How likely is it that they would mistake two other girls on bikes, especially when they actually know and recognised one of them?

:waitasec:

 

[Marilynilpa]

Not if the police are stalking their every move.

The perp may feel he is being watched, whether it's true or not.

Or maybe the perp doesn't have a vehicle, he could have borrowed one on the day he abducted and killed the girls (I believe it happened on the same day). If he feels he is being watched, perhaps he is afraid to borrow a vehicle and make the trip to Seven Bridges.

Or, as you said, maybe his every move is being monitored by LE.

 

[Marilynilpa]

There is actually no road or carpark in the area, just an informal grassed parking spot that only locals know about.

I know all that stuff about people being mistaken, eyewitnesses etc, but if you watch Mr C on youtube, he is quite positive, and so is his wife.

These people know very well who they saw and when they saw them, in my opinion.

Also, we know the girls were one of the very few out on bicycles that day, away from the lake itself, if not the only two. Certainly they were the only ones to bike past the Auction Rooms all day. How likely is it that they would mistake two other girls on bikes, especially when they actually know and recognised one of them?

:waitasec:

BBM

That's a good point, IMO.

 

[iamnotagolem]

I would be much more inclined to believe Mr C saw Elizabeth if he knew her. Saying you saw a little girl ride her bike, when you don't actually know that person is much more difficult to be precise.

When it is not someone you actually know and someone you just see in passing it is much more difficult to recognize that person.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Thanks this is awesome, so suppose a delivery guy (pop, chips, whatever they deliver) works his way through the Waterloo Casey's then into Evansdale working his way east. He stops at the one on Lafayette, then the one on Forest River, then Elk Run. He picks up the girls after his Lafayette stop then dumps the bikes by the lake. Maybe they weren't staged, maybe he drove by there, he is probably local and figured it'd buy him some time.

After Elk Run he has his "lunch break" and probably 45-60 min travel time before he's expected at Fairbank. That gives him time to do what he wants with the girls before his next stop. 7 bridges park is only 1 mile out of his way for his route to Fairbank.

If he is local to the area, he'd have a route that probably covered a good bit of area. He might have started his day at the furthest location he serviced then worked his way back home, passing through evansdale on his way.

Just trying to think outside the box here, since we can't find anyone inside the box.

In your possible scenario, do you think one or both of the girls had seen this person before and wouldn't consider him a stranger?

Or was it a random abduction?

 

[Marilynilpa]

I would be much more inclined to believe Mr C saw Elizabeth if he knew her. Saying you saw a little girl ride her bike, when you don't actually know that person is much more difficult to be precise.

When it is not someone you actually know and someone you just see in passing it is much more difficult to recognize that person.

But Mr. C said Lizzie stopped and talked to people along the way, IIRC. So that makes it more likely, IMO, that he would have recognized her.

ETA: Here's a quote from Mrs. C:

“I broke down for the first time because I was so used to, especially Elizabeth, seeing her every night ride her bicycle and she always stopped and talked to people. She was a friendly little girl,” Marcella Carpenter said. “You know, it’s hard when you’ve got a grandchild the same age.”

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...-missing-Iowa-girls-after-their-disappearance

 

[iamnotagolem]

In your possible scenario, do you think one or both of the girls had seen this person before and wouldn't consider him a stranger?

Or was it a random abduction?

I haven't really thought out a theory, I just have always thought it odd that more than one Casey's has been involved in this investigation over various situations. Today was the first time that I noticed that the Casey's on Lafayette is directly across the street from the post office the girls rode their bikes at. So I looked to see where the others mapped out. Prior to that someone mentioned a delivery driver and I got to thinking.

When I lived in a rural area that was plentiful with Caseys I would see the same delivery guy at several of them in our county, it was not uncommon for me to be traveling from my town, to a town 20 miles to work where there was another Casey's. There were two other caseys that I would pass if I took alternate routes from home to work. I would see the same delivery guy at all four of those Casey's.

 

[carbuff]

BBM

But in this case, being back when they were expected would have been about every 15-20 minutes or so, IIRC. Isn't that how often Wylma said the girls would stop, come in, grab something to drink, and go back out? Plus the fact that both girls knew Wylma had plans that meant they had to be home at a certain time.

I don't recall if I've ever seen a specific comment from Heather or Drew as to the maximum amount of time Lizzie was allowed to be out on her bike. Maybe she did ride far enough, and often enough, to be seen by Mr. C and other neighbors.

My sister and I recently reminisced about how far we used to ride our bikes, without our parents knowing. However, these were rides taken during summer when school was out and both our parents were at work, so we didn't have to worry about checking in with someone at home.

Regarding the girls being "on a mission", I have always felt that way. But now I am beginning to wonder if that "mission" ended before they ever made it to the lake. Without opening a whole can of worms over TG's sighting, I've come to believe he was incorrect as to what he saw or when he saw it. And without his sighting, I wonder if the girls DID make it to Meyers Lake that day. :waitasec:

But one other thing about kids this age is that they don't always have a good sense of time. I remember my middlest telling me in all sincerity, "But it hasn't even been half an hour!" when he'd been gone for two hours and counting when I came looking for him. I can imagine them saying, "Let's go down to the lake and see if (friend) can play. It'll only take a minute."

I really don't know about that sighting. He seems very convinced -- but I know how unreliable eyewitness identifications can be.

On the other hand, I know every kid in this neighborhood, even if I don't know their names, and I know most of the regular friends, too. If I ran into one of them down by the rec center, I might not be able to name them but I'd know whose face it was. If he really did see her regularly, he probably didn't make a mistake.

 

[chelsea6]

Is that the Casey's on Lafayette across from the shopping center?

Yes.. the same one I was talking about. Its actually called Casey's Pub & Eatery. The other on the corner in Evansdale is a gas station/convenience store.

 

[iamnotagolem]

But Mr. C said Lizzie stopped and talked to people along the way, IIRC. So that makes it more likely, IMO, that he would have recognized her.

ETA: Here's a quote from Mrs. C:

“I broke down for the first time because I was so used to, especially Elizabeth, seeing her every night ride her bicycle and she always stopped and talked to people. She was a friendly little girl,” Marcella Carpenter said. “You know, it’s hard when you’ve got a grandchild the same age.”

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...-missing-Iowa-girls-after-their-disappearance

Did LE show them a picture of Elizabeth and they name her? Or did police show them a picture and ask then if they had seen Elizabeth? It's easy to say her name when it has been told to you and it's on the news. It'd be pretty easy to convince yourself that is who you had seen and talked to before and that is who you saw that day.

 

[otto]

There is actually no road or carpark in the area, just an informal grassed parking spot that only locals know about.

I know all that stuff about people being mistaken, eyewitnesses etc, but if you watch Mr C on youtube, he is quite positive, and so is his wife.

These people know very well who they saw and when they saw them, in my opinion.

Also, we know the girls were one of the very few out on bicycles that day, away from the lake itself, if not the only two. Certainly they were the only ones to bike past the Auction Rooms all day. How likely is it that they would mistake two other girls on bikes, especially when they actually know and recognised one of them?

:waitasec:

We don't know that the two missing girls were two of the few children riding bikes on July 13. In fact, we know nothing about how many people and children were outside enjoying the nice weather. We have no information regarding how many people rode bikes on Brovan on July 13.

There was always a road at Maiden Lane, but it has become over grown since the freeway was built. Here's the aerial from 2011

In the 1970s, the road could clearly be seen

 

[carbuff]

But Mr. C said Lizzie stopped and talked to people along the way, IIRC. So that makes it more likely, IMO, that he would have recognized her.

ETA: Here's a quote from Mrs. C:

“I broke down for the first time because I was so used to, especially Elizabeth, seeing her every night ride her bicycle and she always stopped and talked to people. She was a friendly little girl,” Marcella Carpenter said. “You know, it’s hard when you’ve got a grandchild the same age.”

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...-missing-Iowa-girls-after-their-disappearance

bbm

The possible implication of this just hit me.

Stranger danger anyone?

 

[SoBeCzar]

A lot of Tyson workers come through, it's on the way out of Waterloo.

I recall Tyson being mentioned. Does it have shift work that changes around that time of day? I'm sure a lunch break would give enough time but I'm thinking some perv got off work and did this on his way home.
And with Maiden Lake being a former party spot, the killer likely was raised in the area. He may have known who the girls were but never talked to them. Just knew them from living in the area for so long.

 

[carbuff]

There was always a road at Maiden Lane, but it has become over grown since the freeway was built. Here's the aerial from 2011

snipped by me

Am I interpreting that photo correctly? Maiden Lane intersects the bike path?

 

[iamnotagolem]

I just want to say that everyone posting new thoughts and ideas is great, even though we don't have any new information, going over the old and looking at various scenarios is great.