IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #30

[Marilynilpa]

Would you happen to have a link to the source for this information? The link in the comment above seems to go to a blog where the author is presenting unreferenced opinion.

otto, sorry for providing an "unreferenced opinion". I don't usually post links to a blog.

Upthread I posted a link to a very detailed 2006 government report on Child Abduction Murder research. It is a fairly lengthy .pdf file but I'm sure if there is any information to refute the idea that two girls being abducted together then murdered is a statistical rarity, it would be contained in that report. Here's the link again:

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

I'll see if I can find a more reliable source to confirm that it is a statistical rarity for two girls to be abducted together then murdered.

Does this information have any bearing on what ultimately happened to Lyric and Lizzie? I have no idea, but it's information I choose to keep in mind. Any aberration is worthy of consideration, IMO.

ETA: Here's a slightly more reliable source:

Police are still working to confirm the identity of a body discovered Wednesday during the search for Jessica Ridgeway, a 10-year-old who disappeared Friday morning. If the body is Jessica's it would be a crime that is statistically rare.

According to a paper in the journal "Victims & Offenders," entitled "Sexually Motivated Child Abduction Murders: Synthesis of the Literature and Case Illustration," five or six children out of every million are murdered. That's equivalent to 0.0006 percent.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...hild-abductions-and-murder-statistically-rare

BBM

So if Jessica's kidnapping and murder was a crime that is statistically rare, IMO it is reasonable to extrapolate that the abduction and murders of two children is even more statistically rare.

 

[foxbluff]

It's drizzly and gray here today, too.

IIRC, you were suffering the same yesterday, too. Grrh...

In my humble opinion, if any poster here deserves to be walking in sunshine, it's you. :rocker:

 

[SapphireSteel]

What a tangled web we weave
When first we practise to deceive...

 

[SapphireSteel]

otto, sorry for providing an "unreferenced opinion". I don't usually post links to a blog.

Upthread I posted a link to a very detailed 2006 government report on Child Abduction Murder research. It is a fairly lengthy .pdf file but I'm sure if there is any information to refute the idea that two girls being abducted together then murdered is a statistical rarity, it would be contained in that report. Here's the link again:

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

I'll see if I can find a more reliable source to confirm that it is a statistical rarity for two girls to be abducted together then murdered.

Does this information have any bearing on what ultimately happened to Lyric and Lizzie? I have no idea, but it's information I choose to keep in mind. Any aberration is worthy of consideration, IMO.

ETA: Here's a slightly more reliable source:

Police are still working to confirm the identity of a body discovered Wednesday during the search for Jessica Ridgeway, a 10-year-old who disappeared Friday morning. If the body is Jessica's it would be a crime that is statistically rare.

According to a paper in the journal "Victims & Offenders," entitled "Sexually Motivated Child Abduction Murders: Synthesis of the Literature and Case Illustration," five or six children out of every million are murdered. That's equivalent to 0.0006 percent.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...hild-abductions-and-murder-statistically-rare

BBM

So if Jessica's kidnapping and murder was a crime that is statistically rare, IMO it is reasonable to extrapolate that the abduction and murders of two children is even more statistically rare.

Totally agree...in fact the statistics tell me this "abduction" is just sooooo unlikely as to be pretty much impossible for it to have happened at all.

ullhair:

 

[Marilynilpa]

People are coming up with all kinds of ways to raise money for the memorial. Here's a link to one:

https://www.facebook.com/events/498427666871867/

It's also "shared" on Heather's FB page.

There is absolutely no reason to assume this fundraising effort isn't 100% genuine. But is there any oversight for the various fundraising events, to ensure they really do contribute the proceeds to the memorial fund?

 

[SapphireSteel]

People are coming up with all kinds of ways to raise money for the memorial. Here's a link to one:

https://www.facebook.com/events/498427666871867/

It's also "shared" on Heather's FB page.

There is absolutely no reason to assume this fundraising effort isn't 100% genuine. But is there any oversight for the various fundraising events, to ensure they really do contribute the proceeds to the memorial fund?

Yes and no...

Essentially the board members of the fund decide how it is spent, they will also be responsible for accurately reporting how much has actually been raised.

If this reporting of cash donations is incorrect, no one will ever know.

 

[foxbluff]

OMG...THANK YOU! How the hell can there be so many conflicting stories of who was where, and when?

I hope LE has it all straight and has been told the same story more than once, because MSM reports have them all over the place.

I have yet to have a timeline that is the same story twice with all the players, where they were, when they arrived, left, were at a specific venue, work, home, etc.

Every time I read a report, or watched an interview I was left thinking "wait...you just said yesterday you left at..." So confusing. :banghead:

Still playing catch-up here...

Amen to everything you said!

I've been hoping for a long time now that Security Cameras around town which failed to capture the girls more than once (and I even have strong doubts about that one...) were able to capture some of the comings and goings of others that day who were questioned... Moo

 

[foxbluff]

These are the services listed on the Planetary Tree Service website:

Our Services...

Tree & bush trimming & removal
Stump removal
Brush clearing
Cabling & bolting

Snow removal
Sanding & salting

http://www.planetarytree.com/standard.html

I don't see Drew's business being in competition with a tree-farm business. JMO.

bbm - wow... if "cabling & bolting" means what I think it does, then how sad that wasn't used on the island... imo.

 

[dotr]

Totally agree...in fact the statistics tell me this "abduction" is just sooooo unlikely as to be pretty much impossible for it to have happened at all.

ullhair:

This case on WS is about two girls, Mattie Restine and Patty Pritz, ages 13 and 14 out for a swim on a summer's day, who were ultimately found together, both had been beaten/sexually assaulted and shot at close range.Many in the town were suspected...
NM NM - Double murder of Mattie Restine (13) & Patty Pritz (14), Carlsbad, 1961 - #2 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

 

[georger]

Interesting. I hope you are wrong because IMO another pedophile remains free and continues to rob and steal from our precious babies, often resulting in death.

I agree. I cant even imagine what these people are going through except it
comes close to what people suffer during war!

:banghead:

 

[alliemay]

This case on WS is about two girls, Mattie Restine and Patty Pritz, ages 13 and 14 out for a swim on a summer's day, who were ultimately found together, both had been beaten/sexually assaulted and shot at close range.Many in the town were suspected...
NM NM - Double murder of Mattie Restine (13) & Patty Pritz (14), Carlsbad, 1961 - #2 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

IIRC I think there is a thread for the lion sister's also, but I don't think they were ever found?

 

[georger]

Just a thought,
Thinking of astronomy, were the girls placed in a spot beneath any particular alignment of stars?

Not that I'm aware of, but I know next to nothing nor do I keep track of astrology. There were a number of planets including Mars up that night (Jul 13th) including the usual nice summer stars with the Moon rising well after midnight at 27%, but nothing unusual astro-physically that I am aware of. I just don't know anything about the astrology of that evening or what people are claiming ... I have a hard enough time just keeping my electrons and higgs bosons straight, in the Maldum Fornax! :blushing:

 

[georger]

I spent a lot of time last night thinking about the girls, especially Lyric. I cried for her, the loss of her life and the void she leaves in her family's life. And that loss makes me angry.

Here are some rambling thoughts, for what they are worth.

1. I find Kent Smock's close relationship to Heather/Drew worrisome. That, along with the apparent free rein being given to the Angels Memorial Island of Evansdale project, has me scratching my head. I can't pinpoint exactly the cause for my concern, but something just doesn't smell right to me.

2. The abduction and murder of one young girl is statistically VERY rare. Yet here we have the abduction and murder of two young girls, who also happen to be cousins. This seems like a statistical impossibility, IMO - but it happened. When something occurs "against all odds", I find it hard to believe it is random. JMO.

3. Meth use, manufacturing, distribution - what role, if any, did it play in what happened. Maybe not directly, but indirectly in some way? I wish I could rule it out as others have, but it's just always there.

4. Misty, Wylma and Tammy were so vocal at the beginning. Yet, after the girls were found, they took a back seat and Heather/Drew came to the forefront. Why this shift? And why is everything for Lizzie so "over the top" (my opinion). Why the apparent focus on memorializing the girls, rather than solving their murders? This continues to puzzle me.

I have no answers, obviously.:banghead:

ETA: I also wonder about Lyric's previous incident of returning home late. Just a coincidence?

water slides down hill, to the lowest common denominator.

:moo::banghead:

 

[georger]

I keep focusing on the statistical unlikeness that two girls would be abducted and murdered. I've found the following information regarding the likelihood of one child being abducted (not killed):

But how common are what the Justice Department calls “stereotypical” abductions, the nightmare-caliber crime involving a stranger or slight acquaintance who whisks away a child with the intention of holding him for ransom, keeping him or killing him?

Statistics vary, but not by much. Some estimate about 40 such cases occur each year in the United States. The Justice Department report says there were 115 cases in 2002.

Either way, with 60,700,000 children 14 and under in the United States, the odds of your child being the victim of an Adam Walsh-style abduction are roughly 1 in a million.

You’d be wiser to cancel those horseback-riding lessons. Your child is more likely to be killed in an equestrian accident. (Odds in one year for people who ride horses: 1 in 297,000.) Or better yet, pull him off the football team. (Yearly odds of dying for youth football players: 1 in 78,260.) And if you really want to protect them, sell your car. (Lifetime odds of dying as a passenger: 1 in 228. Odds of dying this year alone: 1 in 17,625.)

Or, to put another spin on it, your child is 700 times more likely to get into Harvard than to be the victim of such an abduction.

snip

And I found this info about the chances of one child being abducted and murdered:

Chances that the kidnapped child will be killed are smaller still. The U.S. Department of Justice says 40 percent of the 115 victims were murdered.

Horrific, yes, but “almost certain not to happen,” says Stearns.

http://missingchild.wordpress.com/2006/08/17/how-dangerouus-is-childhood-cont/

BBM

If the abduction and murder of one child is "almost certain not to happen", then it is astronomically more unlikely that TWO children will be abducted together and murdered.

Yes, it happened, but I feel there is much more to the abduction and murders of Lyric and Lizzie than a random abduction by a stranger. JMO.

The stats are way off the boards here, but very specific imo with respect
to very specific possible factors such as (a) number of perps, (b) reason
two girls would go with or be subject to control by one person, (c) use of
7 Bridges within radius of Evansdale, (d) timing girls seen at t1 then vanish
without any notice at t2.... (e) massive search which does not go to 7
Bridges and places like it within easy reach, (f) drug trial ...., (g) etc.

There is some very specific connection at work here imho.

If the girls had been found in Illinois or some place, but to be found only 20
miles away at a well known abandoned 'drug' park with everyone acknowledging
an 'abduction' and no attempt to search obvious 'hiding' places ... there is
something missing imo in people's thinking process right from day-1.

It turned out in December that was not 'rocket science' after all! But something
exceedingly simple, practical, and purposeful. How blaze' can people get? :banghead:
They organise to drain a lake but nobody will get in a car and go look at 7 Bridges
and places like it within easy reach? The premise working is the girls are idiots and
drowned, but the abduction is not real! :banghead: . A whole community of people and law
enforcement and NOBODY! thinks of 7 Bridges ??? Obviously not.

Forget the odds of getting into Harvard. Where is common sense? The facts
suggest nobody actually thought there had been an abduction of two young girls.

I'm sorry if this sounds harsh, but I hope there is now a better plan for dealing
with anything like this in the future.

 

[otto]

otto, sorry for providing an "unreferenced opinion". I don't usually post links to a blog.

Upthread I posted a link to a very detailed 2006 government report on Child Abduction Murder research. It is a fairly lengthy .pdf file but I'm sure if there is any information to refute the idea that two girls being abducted together then murdered is a statistical rarity, it would be contained in that report. Here's the link again:

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

I'll see if I can find a more reliable source to confirm that it is a statistical rarity for two girls to be abducted together then murdered.

Does this information have any bearing on what ultimately happened to Lyric and Lizzie? I have no idea, but it's information I choose to keep in mind. Any aberration is worthy of consideration, IMO.

ETA: Here's a slightly more reliable source:

Police are still working to confirm the identity of a body discovered Wednesday during the search for Jessica Ridgeway, a 10-year-old who disappeared Friday morning. If the body is Jessica's it would be a crime that is statistically rare.

According to a paper in the journal "Victims & Offenders," entitled "Sexually Motivated Child Abduction Murders: Synthesis of the Literature and Case Illustration," five or six children out of every million are murdered. That's equivalent to 0.0006 percent.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...hild-abductions-and-murder-statistically-rare

BBM

So if Jessica's kidnapping and murder was a crime that is statistically rare, IMO it is reasonable to extrapolate that the abduction and murders of two children is even more statistically rare.

The wordpress blog link was provided in connection with the suggestion that it is almost unheard of that: two female children are abducted at the same time, and that they are later found murdered. I like to view the original source and understand whether that conclusion can be drawn. Without reviewing research papers on the subject, a case from the UK always comes to mind when this point is raised.

I think it's rare that two young girls are abducted at the same time, but it does happen.

http://www.trutv.com/library/crime/serial_killers/predators/ian_huntley/index.html

 

[B4igo2it]

Gracie & Tiffany Purnhagen - the bodies of these two sisters were found only a few miles from my home. A most bizarre murder. Gracie Purnhagen, 16, and her sister, Tiffany, 9 were last seen at a bowling area.

http://www.murdervictims.com/Voices/PurnhagenNews.htm

 

[Marilynilpa]

I know there are cases where two girls are abducted together, and later found dead.

However, I still maintain it is statistically extremely rare. Anyone wanting supporting data could probably find it on the Justice Department website, or NCMEC website for that matter.

 

[Marilynilpa]

The wordpress blog link was provided in connection with the suggestion that it is almost unheard of that: two female children are abducted at the same time, and that they are later found murdered. I like to view the original source and understand whether that conclusion can be drawn. Without reviewing research papers on the subject, a case from the UK always comes to mind when this point is raised.

I think it's rare that two young girls are abducted at the same time, but it does happen.

http://www.trutv.com/library/crime/serial_killers/predators/ian_huntley/index.html

otto, I provided an alternative source when I edited my post. I also provided a link to a government research study on Child Abduction Murder. I don't know what other supporting evidence I need to provide.

Bottom line, IMO, is that statistically speaking, the abduction and murder of one child is extremely rare - thus I feel the abduction and murder of two children has to be even rarer. Not saying it never happens, of course it has happened before.

 

[otto]

I know there are cases where two girls are abducted together, and later found dead.

However, I still maintain it is statistically extremely rare. Anyone wanting supporting data could probably find it on the Justice Department website, or NCMEC website for that matter.

Statistically speaking, I have no doubt that in comparing double abduction/murder and single abduction/murder, double abduction/murder is more rare.

 

[cindersoot]

Well I'm going back to seven bridges next week, and I will make sure I can down load pictures before I leave this time.