• #141
  • #142
As far as Iranian exiles in the US are concerned, I believe they have come in various waves. The first wave included many who supported the Shah's regime. It also included many Baha'is, who were targeted for mass killings as heretics at the start of the Islamic revolution. Jews fled after multiple executions of community leaders, property confiscation, new limitations on their rights, and imposition of Islamic law. Communists, Socialists and secular opponents of the Shah were also forced to flee to the West, as the Islamic revolution turned on them. Upper middle class and wealthy people fled, as the IRGC seized property and businesses under various pretexts. Like most revolutions, the Islamic revolution ended the lives of thousands and created a corrupt new elite.

In the decades following 1979, Iran lost a lot of students and its younger educated people due to waves of repression, arrests and executions. The lives of women, especially educated and professional women, were impacted by fundamentalist repression, and many fled to Western countries, including the US.

I think the Iranian emigres in the US are quite varied, but the majority may have been more affluent than many other Iranians

As far as the percentage of people inside Iran who want to see a new form of government, it's hard to tell.

Just my opinion, based on talking to Iranians here, who aren't necessarily a broad sampling.

Thank you for your insights and thoughts. I definitely do NOT know the specifics of Iranian immigrants to the USA.
 
  • #143
Is anyone asking "why now?".
Does it matter?? It worked and hopefully the Iranian people will be able to choose the leader they want moving forward.
 
  • #144
Let’s hope if regime change does occur in Iran, it’s for the better and doesn’t lead to something, God forbid, even worse (i.e. Chile, Haiti, Guatemala)
 
  • #145
I agree with most of this, but perhaps I am more cynical. When has regime change worked? I'm sure there are examples, but as you said, many times (most times?) it is an absolute failure.

I believe this 'action' is a 'distraction'. JMO.
it worked in all the axis powers after wwii

also, not regime change, but the nation-building in Bosnia seems to have been a success.

what's true of regime change is that it's difficult, takes a serious, long-term commitment, and can make things worse if you f it up. usually better not to try.
 
  • #146
Does it matter?? It worked and hopefully the Iranian people will be able to choose the leader they want moving forward.
I just want to say, I didn't say what this reply was to, the reply screwed up somehow.
 
  • #147
That was the downside. I was thinking all night about why this attack would occur at such a late hour (usually 3am ish Tehran time), and why it would occur on a Saturday of all days.

The answer is that a Saturday is their Monday, and the timing ensured that military and political targets would be in their offices.

There was literally no better time, but you always run the risk of a missile or bomb missing its target.
I heard someone on the news (no idea who it was because I have listened to way too much today lol), that Iran also thought it would happen in the middle of the night and that the leaders were openly out during the day thinking they were safe, so it was a perfect time to strike. Makes sense to me, but that's JMO
 
  • #148
The timing is right. The uprisings occurred weeks ago, and it took this long to get assets to the region. This isn't something you can just wing, as the planning was incredibly complex.

They had to move missile defense systems all over the region, bring in carrier strike groups, planes, conduct intelligence gathering, etc.

You do it now when the regime is the weakest it's been in decades, or you do it a decade from now when they have tens of thousands of ballistic missiles, nuclear capabilities, and rebuilt proxy terrorist groups.

There has never been a window of opportunity like this, as Israel has freed itself from the groups holding it hostage (Hezbollah in the north, and Hamas in the east and southwest).
And this ... Hezbollah is severely weakened.

"Israel severely degraded Hezbollah during the 2024 conflict and has continued to challenge Hezbollah reconstitution efforts since the ceasefire in late November 2024. Hezbollah’s attacks and limited defensive ground engagements failed to deter or impose any real cost on Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) thus inflicted far greater damage to Hezbollah in 2024 than it did in 2006 at very low cost to Israel. The IDF killed nearly all senior Hezbollah commanders and 45 percent of its fighters, decimated its weapons stockpiles, and destroyed its military infrastructure. Israel has continued to conduct near-daily airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon since the ceasefire, further limiting its ability to rebuild."
...

Hezbollah has attempted to reconstitute and reorganize as a military organization since December 2024, but has faced unprecedented constraints that have complicated its efforts.
...

Hezbollah will likely intervene in the current war because the United States and Israel explicitly seek to encourage regime collapse and have thus crossed several Hezbollah redlines. A more limited strike will not necessarily trigger Hezbollah intervention. Hezbollah vowed its support for Iran but did not launch any unilateral attacks during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War, in part because Israel did not try to topple the regime. Hezbollah officials, including the secretary general, have specified that an attack targeting Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is Hezbollah’s “red-line.”

 
  • #149
I understand your points. But why is the focus on THIS regime and not others?
Is it the potential for nukes? If so, wasn't that the reason for the ill-conceived Iraq war? And didn't the US admin say just 8 months ago that they crippled Iran's nuclear facilities?

Why isn't there a similar focus on other repressive regimes? Why do "we" want to support Saudi Arabia and Israel? They have both proven to be 'bad actors' in the past.

This seems like a well-worn path for the USA in their quest for oil and other resources. Of course I might be wrong.
Saudi Arabia isn’t “chanting death to America,” and funding terrorist organizations that have killed numerous Americans over the years. They aren't building a bomb that they will use to wipe out the only democracy in the Middle East.

I don't know on what universe a country surrounded by enemies, trying to survive, is remotely similar to a country dedicated to destabilizing the Middle East and killing people in the name of Allah.
 
  • #150
GettyImages-2263503249.jpg
GettyImages-2263498608.jpgGettyImages-2263503347.jpg
NORTHERN ISRAEL, ISRAEL - FEBRUARY 28: An intercept missile is fired amid report of incoming missiles on February 28, 2026 in Northern Israel, Israel. Iran launched a wave of missiles at Israel after the United States and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran early this morning. Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a state of emergency, as Israelis braced for the retaliation. (Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images)


Iran has reportedly claimed responsibility for a strike on a U.S. military base in Bahrain after the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack in Iran on Saturday.

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during the strikes, as his compound in Tehran was decimated.

Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, is dead," Trump wrote on Truth Social late Saturday afternoon.
This is not only justice for the people of Iran, but for all great Americans, and those people from many countries throughout the world, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty THUGS," the president added.
Trump said Khamenei was "unable to avoid" U.S. Intelligence and "highly sophisticated" tracking systems amid the strikes
 
  • #151
it worked in all the axis powers after wwii

also, not regime change, but the nation-building in Bosnia seems to have been a success.

what's true of regime change is that it's difficult, takes a serious, long-term commitment, and can make things worse if you f it up. usually better not to try.
I've visited Bosnia. They are on tenterhooks. I spoke to Bosnians, Serbs and Croats. They all hate each other and don't have one cohesive government. I'd be surprised if civil war didn't break out again.
 
  • #152
  • #153
I love the unconstitutional part. Bring it to a vote so we can see who sides with the Ayatollah. I'm good with that.
What a horrible comment! IMO. I definitely don't side with the Ayatollah, but I am against ill-conceived wars that kill many people.
 
  • #154
"Khamenei’s killing sets off a process under the Iranian constitution in which the Iranian president, the head of the judiciary and one cleric from the Guardian Council will form a council to lead the country."

 
  • #155
UPDATE:
🇮🇷
🇺🇸
Iran says it targeted United States' CIA headquarters in Dubai, UAE.


BAHRAIN:
Home to the headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, whose area of responsibility includes the Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.
QATAR:
The 24-hectare Al Udeid Air Base, in the desert outside the capital Doha, is the forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command, which directs U.S. military operations in territory stretching from Egypt in the west to Kazakhstan in the east. The Middle East's largest U.S. base houses around 10,000 troops

KUWAIT:
Several military installations include Camp Arifjan, the forward headquarters of U.S. Army Central and the Ali Al Salem Air Base, roughly 40 km from the Iraqi border and known as "The Rock" because of its isolated, rugged environment. Camp Buehring was established during the 2003 Iraq War and is a staging post for U.S. Army units deploying into Iraq and Syria, according to the U.S. Army website.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES:
The Al Dhafra Air Base, situated south of UAE capital Abu Dhabi and shared with the UAE Air Force, is a critical U.S. Air Force hub that has supported missions against the Islamic State, as well as reconnaissance deployments across the region, according to the U.S. Air Force Central Command.
Dubai's Jebel Ali Port, while not a formal military base, is the U.S. Navy's largest port of call in the Middle East that regularly hosts U.S. aircraft carriers and other vessels.
IRAQ:
The U.S. maintains a presence at Ain Al Asad Air Base in western Anbar province, supporting Iraqi security forces and contributing to the NATO mission, according to the White House. Iranian missile strikes targeted the base in 2020, in retaliation, opens new tab for the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.
Situated in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, Erbil Air Base serves as a hub for U.S. and coalition forces conducting training exercises and battle drills. The base supports U.S. military efforts by providing a secure location for training, intelligence sharing, and logistical coordination in northern Iraq, according to the congressional report.

SAUDI ARABIA:
U.S. soldiers in Saudi Arabia - which numbered 2,321 in 2024 according to a White House letter - operate in coordination with the Saudi government, providing air and missile defence capabilities and supporting the operation of U.S. military aircraft.
Some are stationed roughly 60 km south of Riyadh, at Prince Sultan Air Base, which supports U.S. Army assets including Patriot missile batteries and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems.
JORDAN:
Located in Azraq, 100 km northeast of the capital Amman, the Muwaffaq al Salti Air Base hosts the U.S. Air Forces Central's 332nd Air Expeditionary Wing, which engages in missions across the Levant, according to a 2024 report in the Library of Congress.
1772334482051.webp

 
  • #156
  • #157
Does it matter?? It worked and hopefully the Iranian people will be able to choose the leader they want moving forward.
Will taking out the leader make a significant difference? How do we know that the eliminated leader will not be replaced with a similar thinking leader by morning? I don't believe that there is no plan for the possible murder of their leader.

Iran is a centuries old society that evolved over time as it has for reasons we will never understand. I doubt the Iranian society will change with the death of the leader, just like taking out the Mexican cartel leader last weekend changes nothing.

I'm curious about the next step, or strategy, to take apart the organization. If the only plan is that the people of Iran should fight the military, or somehow take control of the government, I'm not confident it's a realistic plan.
 
  • #158
The article you posted... clearly says...

according to Iranian authorities.

It also says ...

The figures from Iranian authorities have not been independently verified by the ABC.

They do seem to be a reliable source, but they do say they are getting their information from the Iranian authorties, are those authorities reliable?
Multiple reputable news sources (such as Reuters) have said the video of the destroyed school is authentic. It's been compared with known pictures of the school before the strike.


MOO
 
  • #159
Is anyone asking "why now?".

Israel claim it was opportunistic. Military leaders were meeting in one spot. Nuclear talks apparently stalled. Ramadan. Shabbat. Element of surprise with a daytime attack.

That said, US forces have been positioning for weeks in the region while an agreement was being negotiated.

Nothing was going to happen before the State of the Union on Wednesday, nor during the Winter Olympics, but I’ve been watching military aircraft and ME live cams all week expecting it to happen.
 
  • #160
Now that I think about it, I sure as heck hope we did destroy their nuclear capabilities last year.
 

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