My opinions only, no facts here:
Cynicism does not constitute an investigative tool. Cynicism wastes valuable energy that can be expended trying to SOLVE a mystery. And this case is a mystery.
Here at Websleuths, we all try to help each other as a constituted TEAM to uncover possible solutions to a crime. Every thought presented in this thread is of possible value. I carefully read and think about every post from my fellow sleuths. Because our collective wisdom trumps the whims of one or a few. I cannot see or visualize any of these details that you describe in your post. Are you teasing us?
Think about it my good friend. We have a potential smash-and-grab and a damaged bicycle. There is a former solved case in Hawaii that is somewhat similar to this one. Are you aware of it? Read about the Dana Ireland case and rise up my good buddy. In cases like this, the damaged bike is left behind but the victim is kidnapped (usually injured) and taken elsewhere. For all we know, the victim still lives! This case is not a game of gratification for those of us who are on the Websleuths team. There is a life at stake, partner. Maybe, when all is said and done, we cannot save that life, but just maybe we can help with the following justice.
Sleuth on!