Madeleine McCann 3 year old missing in Portugal - Part 13

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Here is my translation of an important article in the DN today:

PJ awaits new forensic tests in order to arrest the McCanns

PAULA MARTINHEIRA
JOSÉ MANUEL OLIVEIRA

The PJ believes that they will be able to arrest the McCanns next week. For that, they hope that the results sitll to come from the FFS, expected to arrive by that time, as well as the results of the new investigations they are performing, renewing the search for Maddies body. Kate and Gerry have only been subject to identity and residence term (TIR), but the next few days will be decisive in changing the coertion measures. Both will be heard again on Tuesday.

I think G & K are bringing the twins back to settle them into their new home as they know they are facing charges...
 
I think it is a mistake for the portuguese authorities to let them go. With all their influential friends in Britain, the McCanns will be able to avoid extradition. Portugal has probably seen the last of them.
 
Copied from Mirror Forums:-

http://forums.mirror.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=10980

Here is my translation of an important article in the DN today:

PJ awaits new forensic tests in order to arrest the McCanns

PAULA MARTINHEIRA
JOSÉ MANUEL OLIVEIRA

The PJ believes that they will be able to arrest the McCanns next week. For that, they hope that the results sitll to come from the FFS, expected to arrive by that time, as well as the results of the new investigations they are performing, renewing the search for Maddies body. Kate and Gerry have only been subject to identity and residence term (TIR), but the next few days will be decisive in changing the coertion measures. Both will be heard again on Tuesday.

I think G & K are bringing the twins back to settle them into their new home as they know they are facing charges...

Since Maddie disappeared over 3 weeks ago, why haven't all forensic, DNA test, etc been completed by now?
 
With regards to DNA testing, it's always good to remember that a "strong" match is the same thing as a statistically perfect match--in terms of the odds of it happening.

DNA is incredibly unique. Two adults having one child, combine their genetic threads. Even an imperfect match is still incredibly statistically unlikely to happen, with complete strangers.

There are only two reasons a DNA test will not be correct--the lab is incompetent, or the sample was taken from somewhere else than stated. So if the lab results for DNA traces of Madeleine in the trunk of a car, either by transfer or actual presence are not correct, then you are going to fall into the conspiracy theory camp.

And why bother with that? Why not just go along with the unknown abductor scenario? Why spend the manpower and expense to frame the McCanns? People will come back to vacation, regardless. They are still coming to Aruba, after all. The resort takes a one time hit, discounts prices, and people return.
It's not something that requires an elaborate conspiracy to frame the parents.
 
Does anyone know if all the countries in the European Union have extradition treaties with each other?
 
With regards to DNA testing, it's always good to remember that a "strong" match is the same thing as a statistically perfect match--in terms of the odds of it happening.

DNA is incredibly unique. Two adults having one child, combine their genetic threads. Even an imperfect match is still incredibly statistically unlikely to happen, with complete strangers.

There are only two reasons a DNA test will not be correct--the lab is incompetent, or the sample was taken from somewhere else than stated. So if the lab results for DNA traces of Madeleine in the trunk of a car, either by transfer or actual presence are not correct, then you are going to fall into the conspiracy theory camp.

And why bother with that? Why not just go along with the unknown abductor scenario? Why spend the manpower and expense to frame the McCanns? People will come back to vacation, regardless. They are still coming to Aruba, after all. The resort takes a one time hit, discounts prices, and people return.
It's not something that requires an elaborate conspiracy to frame the parents.

According to The Guardian, the DNA found in the trunk is not blood, which, of course, would greatly reduce its relevance to a homicide case.

In answer to a poster's question, I believe that Great Britain and Portugal have long-standing extradition treaties.
 
According to The Guardian, the DNA found in the trunk is not blood, which, of course, would greatly reduce its relevance to a homicide case.

I've posted previously that it's bodily fluids, as stated, not blood. Bodily fluids in a suffocation case would mean saliva, not negating the relevance to a homicide case. Not saying that this is a suffocation, just pointing out that the absence of blood does not necessarily greatly reduce the relevance.

And as reported, the charges considered are those relating to accidental death and then some kind of cover up--which is not the same as homicide/murder.

Finally, any item that was placed within a trunk that contained significant DNA from bodily fluids would have to be one of the following:

Clothing on which Madeleine had urinated, perspired, bled, vomited, or drooled/spit upon, and which had subsequently not been washed--and then was placed loosely and not within another container within the trunk, several weeks AFTER her parents had moved to different lodgings. (Or, in a more sinister scenario, the same, but placed within the trunk before her parents officially rented the car, with the DNA then coming from either Madeleine's actual body or from items near her at the actual time of disappearance.)

Blankets or beddings, same, which were not washed, placed within the trunk of a car rented after her absence by her parents. If the items, and this goes for the clothing, were placed there before she disappeared, then the parents would have been spending much more time with the othe parents present from Britain (the Tapas 9) then previously reported. This is not likely considering the fact that Madeleine and her siblings spent most of their days while at the resort, in the daycare/creche. The only time they seem to have interacted with the other adults is the unsubstantiated report of the early dinner on the day she disappeared, with Russel O'Brien present.

Finally: Item such as stroller or other equipment in which significant amounts of Madeleine's bodily fluids were also present, and then transferred. Strollers are usually collapsed somewhat to place in a trunk, so this would mean handles, wheels, sides, back of seat, etc. Again, somewhat unlikely for normal use. It would be much more likely that parental DNA would be transferred from the handles, but not the child's. As well, it is unlikely that several weeks after the child went missing, a stroller or other similiar item was put in the trunk.

With two year old twins and a four year old, the only stroller likely to have been taken on holiday would be a double stroller--and why take that, if the twins were walking and in the creche most of the day? Extra luggage, extra cost, extra hassle. I've flown to Europe with a toddler and a lightweight stroller, and I was definitely not the average traveler in terms of take along equipment. If we don't have pictures of the McCanns with stroller/push chairs, then I think we can conclude they did not pack them as well.

Again, my point is, it's far more work for the PJ to frame the McCanns, than it would be to just let them go. The conspiracy theory is the weakest one.
 
I've posted previously that it's bodily fluids, as stated, not blood. Bodily fluids in a suffocation case would mean saliva, not negating the relevance to a homicide case. Not saying that this is a suffocation, just pointing out that the absence of blood does not necessarily greatly reduce the relevance.

And as reported, the charges considered are those relating to accidental death and then some kind of cover up--which is not the same as homicide/murder.

Finally, any item that was placed within a trunk that contained significant DNA from bodily fluids would have to be one of the following:

Clothing on which Madeleine had urinated, perspired, bled, vomited, or drooled/spit upon, and which had subsequently not been washed--and then was placed loosely and not within another container within the trunk, several weeks AFTER her parents had moved to different lodgings. (Or, in a more sinister scenario, the same, but placed within the trunk before her parents officially rented the car, with the DNA then coming from either Madeleine's actual body or from items near her at the actual time of disappearance.)

Blankets or beddings, same, which were not washed, placed within the trunk of a car rented after her absence by her parents. If the items, and this goes for the clothing, were placed there before she disappeared, then the parents would have been spending much more time with the othe parents present from Britain (the Tapas 9) then previously reported. This is not likely considering the fact that Madeleine and her siblings spent most of their days while at the resort, in the daycare/creche. The only time they seem to have interacted with the other adults is the unsubstantiated report of the early dinner on the day she disappeared, with Russel O'Brien present.

Finally: Item such as stroller or other equipment in which significant amounts of Madeleine's bodily fluids were also present, and then transferred. Strollers are usually collapsed somewhat to place in a trunk, so this would mean handles, wheels, sides, back of seat, etc. Again, somewhat unlikely for normal use. It would be much more likely that parental DNA would be transferred from the handles, but not the child's. As well, it is unlikely that several weeks after the child went missing, a stroller or other similiar item was put in the trunk.

With two year old twins and a four year old, the only stroller likely to have been taken on holiday would be a double stroller--and why take that, if the twins were walking and in the creche most of the day? Extra luggage, extra cost, extra hassle. I've flown to Europe with a toddler and a lightweight stroller, and I was definitely not the average traveler in terms of take along equipment. If we don't have pictures of the McCanns with stroller/push chairs, then I think we can conclude they did not pack them as well.

Again, my point is, it's far more work for the PJ to frame the McCanns, than it would be to just let them go. The conspiracy theory is the weakest one.

Thanks for your meticulous note. Given Madeleine's age, I think that the evidence of bodily fluids other than blood would greatly reduce its relevance to any successful criminal prosecution. I spoke with a lawyer friend and he agreed. I have no fixed conclusions about this case and only hope that culprits, whoever they might be, are effectively prosecuted.
 
Thankyou to all of you great people that have kept this sad case in our thoughts.You have all done an awful lot to keep Maddie's plight out there....I read each day and do not post very often but I just wanted to thank you all.
It sounds like it could all become a lot clearer soon...Prayers for poor Maddie..I hope that there is justice for her.
 
In this article, it says Maddie was last seen alive at the Ocean Club creche at 6 pm.
The big problem in the McCann case is that virtually all info is offered through the media only, so there is no way to back up this info by official police statements.

The McCanns claim to have arrived at the tapas bar at 8.30, but some of their friends say it was 9 pm.
But whether it was two and half or three hours during which they were alone with their children - how on earth could they have killed Maddie and disposed of the body in such a short time, having to carry her through a summer resort brimming with people? In May, it is still broad daylight at that time.
But even if they 'only' hid the body somewhere - where would they have done that? Weren't the whole premises searched after the missing alert, especially the McCanns' apartment?
And later, being under constant media surveillance, how could the McCanns have removed the body from its hiding place to dispose of it? The whole region was being searched at that time. Something just doesn't add up here imo.

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/0909_maddie2.shtml
 
Good artical rashmon.
(snip)

He is reported as saying he checked the apartment and all three children were sleeping at 9.05pm.
This was confirmed when on his way back he stopped to speak to Jeremy Wilkins, another guest at the resort he had met playing tennis earlier in the week. At 9.10pm Jane Tanner said she crossed Gerry's path on her way to check her own children. (snip)

This is difficult to follow imo. Gerry somehow stops to talk to Jeremy some few seconds or minutes after leaving is apt, then passes Jane. So at any given time there are at least two of them btwn the bar and the apt and in the small time frame with 3 possible witnesses a stranger enters abducts and flees without fear?
 
Weird contradictions made by separate reporters within the same paper

Madeleine search: How did it come to this? By Olga Craig
Last Updated: 1:38am BST 09/09/2007

Kate and Gerry McCann should have been preparing to board a flight back to England this morning with their two remaining children.

Instead, they will, once again, trudge to their local church, passing the posters, now torn and dog-eared, of their cherished Madeleine. They have vowed to remain in Portugal until they clear their names.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/09/nrmcann109.xml&page=3

Madeleine McCann's parents land in BritainBy Caroline Gammell, David Harrison and Andrew Alderson
Last Updated: 1:09pm BST 09/09/2007 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/09/nmcann709.xml



:waitasec: Did they actually vow to stay just hours before leaving??
 
Good artical rashmon.
(snip)

He is reported as saying he checked the apartment and all three children were sleeping at 9.05pm.
This was confirmed when on his way back he stopped to speak to Jeremy Wilkins, another guest at the resort he had met playing tennis earlier in the week. At 9.10pm Jane Tanner said she crossed Gerry's path on her way to check her own children. (snip)

This is difficult to follow imo. Gerry somehow stops to talk to Jeremy some few seconds or minutes after leaving is apt, then passes Jane. So at any given time there are at least two of them btwn the bar and the apt and in the small time frame with 3 possible witnesses a stranger enters abducts and flees without fear?

Right.

And Jeremy Wilkins said that he was sure he would have seen anyone else in the narrow passageway, but did not.
 
If Gerry only left the children before 9pm (when he arrived) why would he feel the need to check on them 5 minutes later?
 
There are only two reasons a DNA test will not be correct--the lab is incompetent, or the sample was taken from somewhere else than stated. So if the lab results for DNA traces of Madeleine in the trunk of a car, either by transfer or actual presence are not correct, then you are going to fall into the conspiracy theory camp.
QUOTE]

Another reason might be if the sample had decomposed.
 
There are only two reasons a DNA test will not be correct--the lab is incompetent, or the sample was taken from somewhere else than stated. So if the lab results for DNA traces of Madeleine in the trunk of a car, either by transfer or actual presence are not correct, then you are going to fall into the conspiracy theory camp.
QUOTE]

Another reason might be if the sample had decomposed.

A degraded sample will result in a partial or inconclusive match, depending upon how many markers have been degraded. It will not show another person's DNA perfectly.

Preliminary results according to the news reports say that while the sample from the floor was degraded, 15 out of 20 markers that were a perfect match for Madeleine's DNA were found. 19 markers are required for a conclusive result in which the odds become statistically insignificant the DNA belongs to anyone else.

What was biologically left of the sample matched 15 out of the 20 markers that are unique to Madeleine. That's significant.
 
If Gerry only left the children before 9pm (when he arrived) why would he feel the need to check on them 5 minutes later?

The entire check on children timeline from the entire group is rediculous. It is one of the main reasons I do not believe the parents are innocent. In order to believe this you have to first accept this group of educated adults thought that it was a good idea to leave toddlers home alone. Then you have to accept they thought it would be fun and relaxing to go out to drink and play trivia and eat while every 10-20 minutes another adult would leave the group and check on the abandend children. Of couse by the later checks the adults would have done enough drinking to probably not even remember to check the kids. I don't believe this group of adults devised this idiotic plan. It is a dangerous, child endangering and neglectuful, adult unrelaxing and cumbersome. You have to also buy they would perefer this plan to the several babysitting options availabe at the resort. Sorry not buying it.

mjak
 
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