The truth must be somewhere in the middle and the scenario also must be as simple as possible. A scenario like:
* Maddie woke up and left the apartment to search for her parents and got lost or met a stranger etc. But then why were the window and shutter suddenly open. Doesn't make sense.
McCanns say they were open. The LE members found it closed, also Dianne Webster stated, that when she was in the apartment after the alarm raised by Kate and she was trying if the shutters can be open from the outside by hand, the window was closed. The other thing, if the window was open, Kate would find it pout not because the curtains whooshing, but because of a chilly draft. That night was cold, just look at the pictures, how warm everyone was dressed.
* Either GM or MO accidentally killed Maddie or found her dead (like a via an overdose or MO picking her up and dropping her) and enacted an abduction. But then where is the body and how could they have ever disposed of her in the very limited time they had? Simply doesn't add up.
Maddie was last seen alive by an independent witness around 5 pm. I know that there is Payne's statement, but I never found it credible.
http://mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/DAVID-PAYNE-ROGATORY.htm
In italics the excerpts from Payne's testimony. Bolded by me.
Err I think it was already open, I think it was already open. Err you know, as I say, I walked up there, Kate was you know I say looking very relaxed and err I say a comment to her I said well crikey it's early, early for them to be getting ready you know for bed, as I say she said ah no, I've had such a good, you know such a good day and afternoon err so you know, and Gerry's just obviously finishing off playing tennis and err so you know hopefully try and get them down and as I say we were just, you know I, I know, it does sound bizarre but I just looked at the three of them and I couldn't, you know they were just so well presented and so clean and immaculate it was, you know I was, and you know they just looked such healthy children, err you know, there's, there's you know nothing that normally
Have you ever seen a woman, who spent something like two hours, taking care of the three lively toddlers, bathing them and preparing to bed, who looked after that relaxed? I haven't. It's hard work even, if the kids are perfectly behaving. So there is the first evidence, that mr. Payne tries a little too hard to paint an idyllic picture.
Second thing. He mentions how healthy all the children looked, yet Kate stated that Maddie was very pale and tired that evening. Did he really see Maddie that evening?
As I say the, from the children point of view predominantly I can remember the, you know, white, but I couldn't say exactly what they were wearing. Err''
Yet Maddie was wearing the pyjamas, that was predominantly PINK. Again, did Payne see Maddie that evening? Or maybe he just tried to create the idylic picture of the beautiful, happy family with relaxed mom and three super healthy looking angels in white, to convince everyone that at this moment everything was nice and peachy, Maddie was alive and Kate was superparent?
If Maddie died shortly after she was picked from creche, McCanns would have plentyful of time to concoct a cover-up plan and find a place to hide her. Apartment 5A was thoroughly searched, but if there really was a Tapas Pact, Maddie could be hidden in the apartment of one of the other couples, where nobody would look for her. As awful as it sounds, you don't need much space to storage such a tiny body.
* There was a burglar or more burglars accessing the apartment via the window (note: two previous burglaries took place also around dinner time in April in the same block that Madeleine disappeared from. In both the April burglaries entry was gained via a window. That is quite a remarkable precedent !).
In McCanns apartment, as you can see on the PJ pictures, there was a chair and a bed, under the window. A burglar, coming through that window, without leaving a trace on both pieces of furniture (and without tripping over them) would have to be a ghost. Or Houdini.
Maddie caught them in the act and started to scream so they had to silence her but accidentally killed her.
Actually if the window was the point of entry, the twins would be first to wake up, as the burglar would have to squeeze between the cots to even get to Maddie's bed (and the door).
But then why not just leave the body behind and get out of the apartment asap?
Very good question.
Why take the child with you, did they leave traceable DNA or her and is that the reason she had to disappear? Were they maybe caught in the act by MO as well when he did his inspection. Did she bite in one of their hands when they were holding her to prevent her from screaming?
A burglar at work would wear gloves. Maddie was a four year old kid, not a pitbull, so I don't think she would be able to bit through the glove. And a burglar caught in the act by the child that young, in the darkness, would rather escape, than to try silencing the kid. Maddie wouldn't be able to see too much details in the darkness.
Were they afraid she would raise alarm to soon when they'd led her go and hence they decided to take her to a saver distance and leave her there?
That's why the professional burlglars make sure, that there are no people in the place they want to burgle, before they start anything.
In some way I like this simple burglary scenario since it clearly happened recently before, they also did it at dinner time, it was block 5 as well and they gained access via the window. It also happened 14 days after the previous event, hence for burglars a good interval for the dust to get settled and strike again. Also. if anyone of the 3 children would have woken up from this burglary, it must have been Maddie, so it also answers the question why Maddie and not one of the twins was taken.
Why it must have been Maddie? On the way between the window and the door there were two cots, the kids in them allegadly light sleepers. So why it must be Maddie?
I can imagine Maddie getting out of bed and catching him in the act e.g. going through her parents stuff in their bedroom.
The McCanns stuff in their bedroom was intact. No burglar was going through it that evening.
And I could even conceive of this happening at the same time when MO came in through the patio and the burglar was in the parents bed room (i.e. he was trapped), hence he grabbed Maddie and silenced her (maybe to harsh because she still made a sound or by holding her hand across her face to tight). So, he was extremely lucky that MO only spotted the children's bedroom door being wider open that GM left it
I have a mighty problem with that door. PJ pictures show it being held by one of the cots, pinned to the wall. The technics had to move the cot, to be able to check the door. So how could be closed, or partially closed?
and that he didn't spot Maddie not being in her bed or the window being open.
Window was opposite the door. The night was cold. If the window was open at that moment, how comes MO did not see it (there would be the light coming from the street) and did not notice a chilly draft waltzing around the apartment?
