Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #24

[Anxala]

The theory on GM not checking does explain a lot.

Can anyone with legal knowledge shed any light on HCW’s strategy? I’m wondering if it’s the case that the Tapas’ accounts are causing him potential future conviction problems, is it better that they come forward to change their statements rather than HCW approaching them?

If it is the case that the statements are untruthful it’s going to be hard for anyone to come clean now. If it’s right, it’s a real mess. All JMO.

I have no legal knowledge but FWIW, I don't think the Tapas' accounts will or would have any impact on a CB conviction since HCW's investigation is into CB, not the Tapas group.

If HCW can provide sufficient evidence that CB is responsible for MM's death, then that's his job done. If the evidence he ends up with contradicts (time-wise and otherwise) the Tapas' accounts but still secures a conviction, then that's an investigation (or not) for another police force.

As has been mentioned (and discussed on earlier threads) previously, HCW appears to be working backwards from a position that informs and feeds his certainty that CB is guilty of the crime HCW has accused him of. Which is why the latter has never seemed remotely interested in or concerned with timelines or anything to do with the Tapas group on the evening of MM's alleged abduction.

 

[Anxala]

For the record, I am not blaming them for any involvement in the disappearance of MM. I think their intentions and those of the wider Tapas Group have been mostly good. I do think it’s naive though and perhaps arrogant to try and direct the LE in the first place.

I do have a problem with it and have had from the start.

If they collectively concocted a skin-saving timeline (which I believe they did, jmo) they - and chiefly, the McCanns - failed to take into objective account the impact that would have on those charged with investigating the disappearance of their child.

The PJ could only work with the information they were given. If that information was false, then the investigation was seriously hampered from the off. And so it was.

That the PJ ended up being ridiculed and accused of all manner of incompetence and ineptitude (to this very day) as a result of that is, imo, unforgivable.

 

[Sagwa]

I do have a problem with it and have had from the start.

If they collectively concocted a skin-saving timeline (which I believe they did, jmo) they - and chiefly, the McCanns - failed to take into objective account the impact that would have on those charged with investigating the disappearance of their child.

The PJ could only work with the information they were given. If that information was false, then the investigation was seriously hampered from the off. And so it was.

That the PJ ended up being ridiculed and accused of all manner of incompetence and ineptitude (to this very day) as a result of that is, imo, unforgivable.

well said. I hope they closure soon.

 

[C.greek]

I do have a problem with it and have had from the start.

If they collectively concocted a skin-saving timeline (which I believe they did, jmo) they - and chiefly, the McCanns - failed to take into objective account the impact that would have on those charged with investigating the disappearance of their child.

The PJ could only work with the information they were given. If that information was false, then the investigation was seriously hampered from the off. And so it was.

That the PJ ended up being ridiculed and accused of all manner of incompetence and ineptitude (to this very day) as a result of that is, imo, unforgivable.

I feel like we are missing the point here. A young girl disappeared and has been possibly murdered. Who and why should care about the PJ being ridiculed. They did not act as fast as they should have had and they turned their suspicions to the parents. The parents have been punished in the worst possible way. I really do not care about the PJ. Calling this unforgivable? Why focus on that now?

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I feel like we are missing the point here. A young girl disappeared and has been possibly murdered. Who and why should care about the PJ being ridiculed. They did not act as fast as they should have had and they turned their suspicions to the parents. The parents have been punished in the worst possible way. I really do not care about the PJ. Calling this unforgivable? Why focus on that now?

I’m sure @Anxala will respond but don’t you think that some of the actions and inconsistencies in their statements generated the suspicions of the PJ?

It’s the very worst nightmare for parents so I think what they did was understandable. If they did lie though, they are responsible for some of the issues with the case - JMO.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I have no legal knowledge but FWIW, I don't think the Tapas' accounts will or would have any impact on a CB conviction since HCW's investigation is into CB, not the Tapas group.

If HCW can provide sufficient evidence that CB is responsible for MM's death, then that's his job done. If the evidence he ends up with contradicts (time-wise and otherwise) the Tapas' accounts but still secures a conviction, then that's an investigation (or not) for another police force.

As has been mentioned (and discussed on earlier threads) previously, HCW appears to be working backwards from a position that informs and feeds his certainty that CB is guilty of the crime HCW has accused him of. Which is why the latter has never seemed remotely interested in or concerned with timelines or anything to do with the Tapas group on the evening of MM's alleged abduction.

But something is stopping HCW charging CB and as @mrjitty suggests, he continues to keep the story alive in the UK press.

He may be confident he has the right guy but his actions show he is less confident he can get a conviction, JMO.

 

[Trivento]

But something is stopping HCW charging CB and as @mrjitty suggests, he continues to keep the story alive in the UK press.

He may be confident he has the right guy but his actions show he is less confident he can get a conviction, JMO.

The thing that’s stopping HCW from charging is perhaps nothing to do with Tapas statements , but rather what he’s always hinted towards ..just something stronger to put CB undoubtedly at the crime scene or suchlike , eg.via phonecall to start , but something else more reliable also , perhaps of forensic nature , that will stand in court …. but as is a long shot HCW has to say it might never be resolved satisfactorily…
Hopefully it will be..!
It is hard to tell why this extra “ stuff “ is so crucial when HCW says he is convinced CB murdered MM ...if he is convinced then why would a judge/court/trial not be ..?
Not knowing what the “ concrete “ evidence is makes this all a bit unfathomable and perhaps leads us to conjure up scenarios that are not correct..?
Also to me is hard to tell if HCW is targeting UK media …or is it the other way round ?

 

[Denis R Tandib]

The thing that’s stopping HCW from charging is perhaps nothing to do with Tapas statements , but rather what he’s always hinted towards ..just something stronger to put CB undoubtedly at the crime scene or suchlike , eg.via phonecall to start , but something else more reliable also , that will stand in court …. but as is a long shot HCW has to say it might never be resolved satisfactorily…
Hopefully it will be..!
Also to me is hard to tell if HCW is targeting UK media …or is it the other way round ?

I hope so too.

 

[Trivento]

Am wondering if discrepancies in Tapas statements would really be strong enough to stop HCW proceeding...they are just memories/recollections...not strong evidence such as DNA or photographs / video..
HCW could just say our case is "this"... it conflicts a bit with Tapas stuff but is strong enough to override that... we are not considering statements as reliable or an obstacle as not forensic based and produced after extraordinary and stressful events that could have clouded the recollections..
Or if he knows statements are incorrect wouldn't he just proceed anyway and say we know CB did it and will charge...and we know statements not correct...
His priority would be to charge CB....can't see upsetting or causing trouble to Tapas group would stop him...
I may well be wrong but my feeling is the main obstacle is something else ( not Tapas )...such as missing forensic evidence / body... etc

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Am wondering if discrepancies in Tapas statements would really be strong enough to stop HCW proceeding...they are just memories/recollections...not strong evidence such as DNA or photographs / video..
HCW could just say our case is "this"... it conflicts a bit with Tapas stuff but is strong enough to override that... we are not considering statements as reliable or an obstacle as not forensic based and produced after extraordinary and stressful events that could have clouded the recollections..

I think you would be right if HCW has the knock out blow so to speak. For example, if the homicide is videoed and CB is clearly visible in the footage then nothing else matters.

Given the way the investigation has gone though, we can be pretty sure he doesn’t have evidence nearly that strong. If his evidence is largely circumstantial then I am pretty sure the Tapas statements would be used in CB’s defence.

Let’s say CB’s confession the HB or others states that he took MM at 8:40pm. FF would certainly argue that this is impossible because the child’s own father saw her in bed at 9:05-9:10pm.

The above examples as very obvious to try and explain the point, in reality a more nuanced version would likely be the case.

 

[Trivento]

I think you would be right if HCW has the knock out blow so to speak. For example, if the homicide is videoed and CB is clearly visible in the footage then nothing else matters.

Given the way the investigation has gone though, we can be pretty sure he doesn’t have evidence nearly that strong. If his evidence is largely circumstantial then I am pretty sure the Tapas statements would be used in CB’s defence.

Let’s say CB’s confession the HB or others states that he took MM at 8:40pm. FF would certainly argue that this is impossible because the child’s own father saw her in bed at 9:05-8:10pm.

The above examples as very obvious to try and explain the point, in reality a more nuanced version would likely be the case.

Good points..
Another problem is that if CB is the perp and has talked ( eg.in a bar) , or will talk....he has probably for a long time known of Tapas timeline ...and may have adjusted...or will adjust...his timeline to deliberately collide with and discredit Tapas stuff in order to cause further trouble or use that to help try and wriggle out of charges somehow .

 

[Dlk79]

I think you would be right if HCW has the knock out blow so to speak. For example, if the homicide is videoed and CB is clearly visible in the footage then nothing else matters.

Given the way the investigation has gone though, we can be pretty sure he doesn’t have evidence nearly that strong. If his evidence is largely circumstantial then I am pretty sure the Tapas statements would be used in CB’s defence.

Let’s say CB’s confession the HB or others states that he took MM at 8:40pm. FF would certainly argue that this is impossible because the child’s own father saw her in bed at 9:05-8:10pm.

The above examples as very obvious to try and explain the point, in reality a more nuanced version would likely be the case.

I think this is where potential problems might arise. Namely, if some part of HCW's evidence directly conflicts with the official account of the Tapas group's version of events. FF will use it in his defence, no doubt. Will that Tapas member back down and admit their account is perhaps not accurate?

Could all be a moot point though, maybe the evidence doesn't conflict with their account at all. Damn, I wish we had some more info to go on......

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I think this is where potential problems might arise. Namely, if some part of HCW's evidence directly conflicts with the official account of the Tapas group's version of events. FF will use it in his defence, no doubt. Will that Tapas member back down and admit their account is perhaps not accurate?

Could all be a moot point though, maybe the evidence doesn't conflict with their account at all. Damn, I wish we had some more info to go on......

I hear you, it would be good to get more info released. HCW and German LE should probably be recognised for the lack of info that has been released, the investigation seems very tight and controlled.

I fear that if the Tapas group did back down now, FF would still be able to exploit prior statements in his defence. If this theory or any part of it is correct, it is a real problem for HCW.

 

[mrjitty]

I think this is where potential problems might arise. Namely, if some part of HCW's evidence directly conflicts with the official account of the Tapas group's version of events. FF will use it in his defence, no doubt. Will that Tapas member back down and admit their account is perhaps not accurate?

Could all be a moot point though, maybe the evidence doesn't conflict with their account at all. Damn, I wish we had some more info to go on......

If you are HCW going to trial, it is a huge problem that JT says she saw the abductor and identified that man as RM. Just as one example.

Now maybe HCW believes he can find the evidence that short circuits all of that, so that it is clear JT was mistaken. But if not, you can see it would be a major problem.

 

[Lilly b]

I think you would be right if HCW has the knock out blow so to speak. For example, if the homicide is videoed and CB is clearly visible in the footage then nothing else matters.

Given the way the investigation has gone though, we can be pretty sure he doesn’t have evidence nearly that strong. If his evidence is largely circumstantial then I am pretty sure the Tapas statements would be used in CB’s defence.

Let’s say CB’s confession the HB or others states that he took MM at 8:40pm. FF would certainly argue that this is impossible because the child’s own father saw her in bed at 9:05-9:10pm.

The above examples as very obvious to try and explain the point, in reality a more nuanced version would likely be the case.

If CB confessed to various people or just 1, I'm sure he wouldn't of said it was 9.05 or 9.15, etc etc can't see that would of been part of the admission conversation imo

 

[Trivento]

Thinking of the theory that HCW speaks to UK press a lot perhaps to pressure someone from Tapas group to come forward with something new / more accurate..
Why would HCW take such a roundabout / obscure way to achieve this ?…when he could just get on phone to OG and tell them this directly ..then OG letting the Tapas group know of difficulties with a view to resolving..
Or perhaps HCW feels if he did it this way would be playing his hand a bit much too soon..? Who knows..?

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Thinking of the theory that HCW speaks to UK press a lot perhaps to pressure someone from Tapas group to come forward with something new / more accurate..
Why would HCW take such a roundabout / obscure way to achieve this ?…when he could just get on phone to OG and tell them this directly ..then OG letting the Tapas group know of difficulties with a view to resolving..
Or perhaps HCW feels if he did it this way would be playing his hand a bit much too soon..? Who knows..?

This was basically my question with the below. I feel as though it looks dodgy if he instigated the Tapas 9 changing their statements.

Can anyone with legal knowledge shed any light on HCW’s strategy? I’m wondering if it’s the case that the Tapas’ accounts are causing him potential future conviction problems, is it better that they come forward to change their statements rather than HCW approaching them?

 

[Denis R Tandib]

If CB confessed to various people or just 1, I'm sure he wouldn't of said it was 9.05 or 9.15, etc etc can't see that would of been part of the admission conversation imo

No but he may have said that he waited until the parents went for dinner and then went immediately into 5A ... so all the Tapas Group are telling porky pies!

 

[mrjitty]

No but he may have said that he waited until the parents went for dinner and then went immediately into 5A ... so all the Tapas Group are telling porky pies!

This is the point of my original thought experiment.

To try to explain why HCWs media campaign seems like it is not aligned with the group. I would have expected alignment, because he can finally vindicate them.

 

[Lilly b]

No but he may have said that he waited until the parents went for dinner and then went immediately into 5A ... so all the Tapas Group are telling porky pies!

I get that, but whether they got the times messed up or less checks than said, it is not the crime that is being investigated
, so he could of taken her any time say from 8.30ish when km and GM left to 10ish, no matter what, and what time, mm still vanished, and CB has confessed to this