Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #34

[mrjitty]

IF Mark Harrison is right that Madeleine's remains were thrown into the sea, Madeleine's remains will not be found.

How?

Throwing a body into the sea is often not that easy if you don’t want it to wash up on the beach

 

[Deleted member 268165]

How?

Throwing a body into the sea is often not that easy if you don’t want it to wash up on the beach

And even for a person who knows well PdL is very dangerous to throw a 20 kg. body into the sea at night, you may fall. Even with full Moon!

 

[Tekno]

First of all, my involvement with the "woman in purple":

I was asked from the Express if I had knowledge of people related to Bulgaria in the PJ files. The journalists were saying that the "woman in purple" was related to Bulgaria. But I only was searching for a woman with links to Bulgaria.

I answered:

“I have been combing through all the police files trying to identify who the woman in purple could be. It has been widely reported that Yard officers are in Bulgaria. Examining all the known statements it seems highly likely the police are seeking the Ts as they are the only known people with a clear link to Bulgaria."

The rest of the press said that I had discovered the woman in purple! And then the press said otherwise

Original source: Scotland Yard hunts waitress believed to be the 'woman in purple'

Of course LT was not the woman in purple. I always think she may be JT, and later maybe NF. Only my opinions.

Please remove if not appropriate. LT’s son resembles this efit, imo.

 

[Davieson]

If taken out in a small boat a mile or so off shore a body could easily be disposed of

 

[Deleted member 268165]

If taken out in a small boat a mile or so off shore a body could easily be disposed of

Have you been at night in PdL beach? The sea is very very dark and frightening.

 

[Davieson]

Have you been at night in PdL beach? It is very very dark.

Why does it have to be in the night ? Why not in daytime, hire small boat, go on board with suitable body bag and come back with empty bag.

 

[Deleted member 268165]

Why does it have to be in the night ? Why not in daytime, hire small boat, go on board with suitable body bag and come back with empty bag.

With a lot of people searching for MM?

Of course, it is possible, but very unlikely, IMO.

 

[Davieson]

With a lot of people searching MM?

Why does it have to have been disposed of near PDL ?
Could have been taken many miles away shortly after disappearance.

 

[Pixie Child]

I wonder which color appears purple under sodium bichrome lights!

Please see The abduction of Madeleine McCann: Why can't Martin Smith, the star witness, recognize Chistian B?

I wonder which color appears purple under sodium bichrome lights!

Please see The abduction of Madeleine McCann: Why can't Martin Smith, the star witness, recognize Chistian B?

The Smith efits were done 1y later! They do resemble CB but the height is off.

I would have thought 9:50pm a better time (9:15pm) for the abductor - the group were settled in drinking & eating.

The abductor would have had to have been in the flat with GMc who would likely have smelled smoke.

Julian T held his daughter in the same way as Tannerman.

 

[Deleted member 268165]

The Smith efits were done 1y later! They do resemble CB but the height is off.

I would have thought 9:50pm a better time (9:15pm) for the abductor - the group were settled in drinking & eating.

The abductor would have had to have been in the flat with GMc who would likely have smelled smoke.

Julian T held his daughter in the same way as Tannerman.

IMO JT saw the abductor at 21:50, and the Smiths saw him at 22:00.
A child on pyjamas and barefoot while the man carrying her was with warm clothes is very rare to see. Too much coincidence, IMO.

 

[enquirer6]

How?

Throwing a body into the sea is often not that easy if you don’t want it to wash up on the beach

I am currently of the opinion on the available information and statistical datasets that if death has occurred, that it is possible that Madeleine McCann’s body has been disposed into the sea at Praia da Luz. (See my second report entitled “NPIA OP TASK Search Doc Beach and Marine”).​

(Mark Harrison)​

Quite how that conclusion is supposed to tally with the content of Amaral's book, I have no idea. But that is for another discussion.

 

[mrjitty]

I am currently of the opinion on the available information and statistical datasets that if death has occurred, that it is possible that Madeleine McCann’s body has been disposed into the sea at Praia da Luz. (See my second report entitled “NPIA OP TASK Search Doc Beach and Marine”).​

(Mark Harrison)​

Quite how that conclusion is supposed to tally with the content of Amaral's book, I have no idea. But that is for another discussion.

I agree it is possible. But not as easy as portrayed. If you just toss something in from the shore it may well not go far at all depending on tides and currents.

 

[enquirer6]

I agree it is possible. But not as easy as portrayed. If you just toss something in from the shore it may well not go far at all depending on tides and currents.

Mark Harrison based his conclusion on quite a detailed study of currents and tides and whatever else. I'll see if I can dig out the rest ....

 

[misty48]

The Smith efits were done 1y later! They do resemble CB but the height is off.

I would have thought 9:50pm a better time (9:15pm) for the abductor - the group were settled in drinking & eating.

The abductor would have had to have been in the flat with GMc who would likely have smelled smoke.

Julian T held his daughter in the same way as Tannerman.

GMc had hay fever medication with him so may well have had a reduced sense of smell.
DM also never mentioned that her attacker smelled of smoke.

 

[Deleted member 268165]

I agree it is possible. But not as easy as portrayed. If you just toss something in from the shore it may well not go far at all depending on tides and currents.

Thrown into some of the abandoned wells with a weight attached to the body is more safer than into the sea. Even digging a hole in the ground in a secluded place is more safer.

 

[Deleted member 268165]

Mark Harrison based his conclusion on quite a detailed study of currents and tides and whatever else. I'll see if I can dig out the rest ....

You can study the tides and currents a lot, but the abductor could has had another idea in mind.

 

[misty48]

First of all, my involvement with the "woman in purple":

I was asked from the Express if I had knowledge of people related to Bulgaria in the PJ files. The journalists were saying that the "woman in purple" was related to Bulgaria. But I only was searching for a woman with links to Bulgaria.

I answered:

“I have been combing through all the police files trying to identify who the woman in purple could be. It has been widely reported that Yard officers are in Bulgaria. Examining all the known statements it seems highly likely the police are seeking the Ts as they are the only known people with a clear link to Bulgaria."

The rest of the press said that I had discovered the woman in purple! And then the press said otherwise

Original source: Scotland Yard hunts waitress believed to be the 'woman in purple'

Of course LT was not the woman in purple. I always think she may be JT, and later maybe NF. Only my opinions.

The Bulgarian link may have been the woman whose phone HB was using in Greece when he first made contact with SY in 2017.

 

[enquirer6]

Homicide Disposal Datasets

A limited search has been conducted of datasets that contain body disposal
data in homicide cases (CATCHEM, SCAS, FBI). Although this search was
limited due to the time constraints placed on this reports delivery an inference
can be gained from both the data sets and the authors own case work
experience. I have also consulted with NPIA and FBI colleagues to benefit
from their experiences.

The conclusion inferred is that beach burial is extremely rare This should not
surprise us as to dig on a beach is a high risk activity requiring expending time
and energy when a more 'least effort" disposal is readily available, that is
directly into the sea. Of those limited cases that were found to be a beach
disposal the overwhelming majority were surface depositions with only one
recorded concealment using rocks on top of a 2 year old child (CATCHEM
Database)

Discussion

Where a homicide occurs and the sea is accessible and nearby then it would
become a natural disposal choice for an offender using the "least effort
principle. The beach itself would appear to merely be the platform to facilitate
this. When this is considered in relation to the beach at Praia Da Luz there is
a reinforcement of this view due to the severe limiting and inhibiting factors to
achieve a beach burial there. If a burial was achieved there is a significant
likelihood, based on the tidal coverage of the entire beach, that a burial would
be exposed and or taken into the sea. If a body entered the sea it could
remain close to the shore travelling in an eastward direction until it returned to
shore or became trapped in the sub surface rocks.

The optimum time window, on the night of disappearance, to dispose of a
body into the sea from the shore would have been between 2200hrs and
0200hrs. The optimum time to dispose of a body into the sea from the top of
the cliffs would have been between 0200hrs and 041 Shrs.

Due to the normal high occupancy tourist activity on the beach and in the sea
it could be considered a body would self expose and be detected.

In conclusion there is no intelligence spe?ic to this case or generic datasets
that support a scenario of beach burial. Additionally the digability study and
coastal dynamics of the Praia Da Luz beach further limit this as a viable
scenario. However should further assurance be required I would suggest a
limited inspection around the rock falls at the base of the cliffs' on the beach
and the waters around the rocky outcrop to the east of the beach.

Should the investigators wish to discuss and develop the issues raised in this
assessment I would be happy to do so.

 

[Deleted member 268165]

Homicide Disposal Datasets

A limited search has been conducted of datasets that contain body disposal
data in homicide cases (CATCHEM, SCAS, FBI). Although this search was
limited due to the time constraints placed on this reports delivery an inference
can be gained from both the data sets and the authors own case work
experience. I have also consulted with NPIA and FBI colleagues to benefit
from their experiences.

The conclusion inferred is that beach burial is extremely rare This should not
surprise us as to dig on a beach is a high risk activity requiring expending time
and energy when a more 'least effort" disposal is readily available, that is
directly into the sea. Of those limited cases that were found to be a beach
disposal the overwhelming majority were surface depositions with only one
recorded concealment using rocks on top of a 2 year old child (CATCHEM
Database)

Discussion

Where a homicide occurs and the sea is accessible and nearby then it would
become a natural disposal choice for an offender using the "least effort
principle. The beach itself would appear to merely be the platform to facilitate
this. When this is considered in relation to the beach at Praia Da Luz there is
a reinforcement of this view due to the severe limiting and inhibiting factors to
achieve a beach burial there. If a burial was achieved there is a significant
likelihood, based on the tidal coverage of the entire beach, that a burial would
be exposed and or taken into the sea. If a body entered the sea it could
remain close to the shore travelling in an eastward direction until it returned to
shore or became trapped in the sub surface rocks.

The optimum time window, on the night of disappearance, to dispose of a
body into the sea from the shore would have been between 2200hrs and
0200hrs. The optimum time to dispose of a body into the sea from the top of
the cliffs would have been between 0200hrs and 041 Shrs.

Due to the normal high occupancy tourist activity on the beach and in the sea
it could be considered a body would self expose and be detected.

In conclusion there is no intelligence spe?ic to this case or generic datasets
that support a scenario of beach burial. Additionally the digability study and
coastal dynamics of the Praia Da Luz beach further limit this as a viable
scenario. However should further assurance be required I would suggest a
limited inspection around the rock falls at the base of the cliffs' on the beach
and the waters around the rocky outcrop to the east of the beach.

Should the investigators wish to discuss and develop the issues raised in this
assessment I would be happy to do so.

Yes, but it is statistics. You can have 1000 offenders doing the same, and offender 1001 proceeding otherwise. You must have evidence that MM abductor thrown her into the sea.
I think that is happenning with HCW/BKA. They have CB profile and he commited several serious crimes, but perhaps, only perhaps, he can be not guilty in MM case.

 

[enquirer6]

I think Amaral dimly perceived that Harrison, effectively, ruled out burial and so opted for the word hidden (but on the beach) which Harrison also ruled out.

The penultimate sentence of Harrison's third, and final, report ought, on its own, to have cost Amaral the libel trial:

I am currently of the opinion on the available information and statistical datasets that if death has occurred, that it is possible that Madeleine McCann’s body has been disposed into the sea at Praia da Luz. (See my second report entitled “NPIA OP TASK Search Doc Beach and Marine”).