Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #38

[frank-cole]

Again and again, unless HCW is bluffing blatantly he told to SF in Sexta às 9, HB and MS are not central pieces in MM investigation.

I think because they’re public & vocal, they become central figures (to some) & then somehow become a focal point & the face of the investigation. Seen it in many other cases, people get pulled in by the media storyline regarding people who go public.

Their testimonies have been corroborated with evidence. Their characters are open to scrutiny & therefore IMO some use their shady histories as a way to present a supposed weakness in the MM investigation, generally by wrongly placing them at the centre of it.

The evidence files passed to Fulscher regarding the 5 linked cases runs over 100 pages. IMO it would be irrational to assume 2 witnesses to be the deciding factor when the evidence file runs over 100 pages…….

 

[frank-cole]

You affirm but you don't know unless you know more about the investigation work, details. In any case, I suppose the same always wishing they can get more to charge beyond the slightest doubt.
IMO find the right location and then the body, or parts of, or any residual forensics, after all this time, will be two (almost) "impossibles". That's why I think they would only get there with his confession. Another (almost) "impossible".

Do you think there’ll come a time where CB is presented with a deal? A confession & location of remains/forensics for a better prison.

I think this is the possible endgame. When all appeals are concluded & the whinging letters & rants about a ‘set-up’ slowly start being ignored, it’s possible that CB’s only opportunity for a better existence is a better prison.

I think they may well get that confession, but it’ll be months or even years after he’s convicted for MM’s murder .

JMO

 

[frank-cole]

Agree with most of your points.

No-one saw him on town that night...
Again, how could he then have risked to merge himself into crowd with MM (Smithman?!, disguised?!) walking to the van/car?
From retrospective auto-check questions in his letters, Was I or my vehicle clearly seen near the crime scene on the night of the crime?
Assuming he did it (I no longer see another scenario), incredible how meticulous and lucky he might have been.
BKA to go for any of his "belongings" captured in a photo/background that could link to the evidence they say they have on MM? Doubts on this.
Again, IMO they really want the body or forensics but, even at limit, "get" his confession seems "impossible" too.

Carole Tramner says that CB is the man she saw on the afternoon of the abduction testing the gate below the apartments. IMO it doesn’t surprise me that there’s an eye witness who saw CB on the day of abduction. IMO the man who confessed to the crime would obviously have been at the OC at least once that day.

Regarding the significance of eye witness sightings, witness testimony, cell site triangulation, material evidence, confession to a friend, van seen in the area in the days before & after, CB seen in the days before the abduction - I think it’s easy to attempt to dismiss or diminish their significance if scrutinising each one individually. It works the brain a little to come up with plausible counter arguments to any individual piece of infomation - be that nuance, context change, translation interpretation, etc etc etc…. But when looking at the totality of the information it’s much harder to dismiss. The odds of every independent piece of information somehow being different to what it is supposed to be, is very very low. The only way around that is to dismiss all totalities of information by highlighting that he hasn’t been charged. But IMO that leaves a big elephant in the room, which is that factually innocent doesn’t mean legally innocent. My mum never caught me driving her car but that doesn’t mean I didn’t do so. (I did! Shhh…)

JMO

 

[Mex]

Most likely a single serial offender IMO. MO is the same. The lack of PJ competence doesn’t grow or diminish relative to whether it was 1 or 50 offenders. But IMO just 1.

The offences occurred throughout the Algarve.
A similar MO was used. Was there forensic evidence left behind? According to the suspect's widow there must have been.
Snip
Former junkie and convicted burglar EM, who died in a tractor accident in 2008 at the age of 40, was questioned about a spate of sex attacks on female Brits at Algarve holiday villas from 2004 onwards.
But his widow LR claims Portuguese detectives ruled him out because his DNA did not match any from the crime scenes.

Prime suspect in Madeleine McCann abduction was quizzed about sex assaults now being linked to her disappearance

Euclides Monteiro, who died in 2008, was questioned about a spate of sex attacks on female Brits at Algarve holiday villas from 2004 onwards

www.mirror.co.uk

I too think there was only one offender who was too forensically savvy to leave any useable traces behind.

 

[onemoremiletogo]

Do you think there’ll come a time where CB is presented with a deal? A confession & location of remains/forensics for a better prison.

I think this is the possible endgame. When all appeals are concluded & the whinging letters & rants about a ‘set-up’ slowly start being ignored, it’s possible that CB’s only opportunity for a better existence is a better prison.

I think they may well get that confession, but it’ll be months or even years after he’s convicted for MM’s murder .

JMO

That's what I initially thought - his confession for better prison conditions.
Even when he thinks he is though as old boots.
IMO the horizon will get even darker and harder for him if he is convicted in any/all other cases. In Sexta às 9, HCW highlights that based on CB's past sexual crimes, eventual coercise measures could keep him in jailed for life...being re-evaluated regularly.
In this scenario, IMO BKA will keep investigating MM case in the attempt of reinforcing what they say they already have (even if not enough to charge beyond any doubt). Yes, maybe taking even years to then charge him. I'm just not sure if, as you refer above, they will go for the charge anyway with what they have now or if they will still try to get any forensics, belongings/background corroborative link (photo?). Or his confession.

 

[Okapi]

The two that they could’ve charged are minor by comparison to the other three and MM.

The only crime they can link due to the appeal is the HaB rape.

IMO, they were hoping for a whole lot more in terms of number of offences and quality of evidence. In making a monster, they hoped for Godzilla but ended up with Zippy from Rainbow.

So they had to circle back to what they had: two alleged rapes with little support (not even victims), and two cases of public masturbation. Plus HaB, there is narrative but it’s not a Dostoyevsky!

They’ll be prosecuting the cases of public masturbation as CSA; general public indecency with an adult audience is surely a lesser crime.

The eventual witness testimony in those cases could also yield a disclosure that the perpetrator tried to lure the child away. Speculation, but a possibility.

But yes, I agree that all told, the HaB case is definitely the charge with the greatest chance of conviction. A comprehensive testimony by the survivor, the similarity with the DM case, and the potential forensics. Jmo.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Carole Tramner says that CB is the man she saw on the afternoon of the abduction testing the gate below the apartments. IMO it doesn’t surprise me that there’s an eye witness who saw CB on the day of abduction. IMO the man who confessed to the crime would obviously have been at the OC at least once that day.

Regarding the significance of eye witness sightings, witness testimony, cell site triangulation, material evidence, confession to a friend, van seen in the area in the days before & after, CB seen in the days before the abduction - I think it’s easy to attempt to dismiss or diminish their significance if scrutinising each one individually. It works the brain a little to come up with plausible counter arguments to any individual piece of infomation - be that nuance, context change, translation interpretation, etc etc etc…. But when looking at the totality of the information it’s much harder to dismiss. The odds of every independent piece of information somehow being different to what it is supposed to be, is very very low. The only way around that is to dismiss all totalities of information by highlighting that he hasn’t been charged. But IMO that leaves a big elephant in the room, which is that factually innocent doesn’t mean legally innocent. My mum never caught me driving her car but that doesn’t mean I didn’t do so. (I did! Shhh…)

JMO

Frank, I think you are taking a leap too far but please try to support the following:

1. Do you have a source where CT confirms CB was the person checking the gate?
2. There is no cell site triangulation, unless you can show otherwise, there is a phone number hitting a mast in PDL. This number may or may not have been used by CB.
3. We have been led to believe that CB confessed to HeB but it didn’t appear so in the Bild interview. Do you know the content of other confessions, or even if they occurred?
4. Do you have a source for the Van, presumably the VW, in the area in the days before?
5. Which one of the sitings in the days before the abduction is CB?

I think the way you present the information could be good circumstantial evidence but I think it’s more of a Clarence Mitchell version of the evidence than what has really been reported - that said, I’m happy to be proven wrong.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

The offences occurred throughout the Algarve.
A similar MO was used. Was there forensic evidence left behind? According to the suspect's widow there must have been.
Snip
Former junkie and convicted burglar EM, who died in a tractor accident in 2008 at the age of 40, was questioned about a spate of sex attacks on female Brits at Algarve holiday villas from 2004 onwards.
But his widow LR claims Portuguese detectives ruled him out because his DNA did not match any from the crime scenes.

Prime suspect in Madeleine McCann abduction was quizzed about sex assaults now being linked to her disappearance

Euclides Monteiro, who died in 2008, was questioned about a spate of sex attacks on female Brits at Algarve holiday villas from 2004 onwards

www.mirror.co.uk

I too think there was only one offender who was too forensically savvy to leave any useable traces behind.

Yet he left DNA evidence - IIRC, semen but I could be wrong.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

They’ll be prosecuting the cases of public masturbation as CSA; general public indecency with an adult audience is surely a lesser crime.

The eventual witness testimony in those cases could also yield a disclosure that the perpetrator tried to lure the child away. Speculation, but a possibility.

But yes, I agree that all told, the HaB case is definitely the charge with the greatest chance of conviction. A comprehensive testimony by the survivor, the similarity with the DM case, and the potential forensics. Jmo.

Yes, I think HCW has said the public offences constitute, quite rightly IMO, sexual assault in German law.

He was caught in the act in the playground so that’s a certainty IMO.

 

[RichardKimble]

Yet he left DNA evidence - IIRC, semen but I could be wrong.

If DNA ruled one out its obvious that with CBs DNA in the system its not him that committed the assaults in question .So not much bearing on the MM case which the thread is about.

 

[RichardKimble]

I think it's mostly when they charged the original rape they didn't have the identities of the victims seen in the videos. So now they are charging those after spending years post appeal unsuccessfully to find the victims - on the basis of the holdings in the original rape case that Helge B and associate must have been truthful.

There is a stronger legal team representing CB now it seems, maybe they'll argue that HeB is not that reliable especially now HeB has broken cover.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

If DNA ruled one out its obvious that with CBs DNA in the system its not him that committed the assaults in question .So not much bearing on the MM case which the thread is about.

I agree. I think the point raised was that these crimes were unsolved and therefore, the PJ were ineffective at this time, allowing CB the freedom commit sexual crimes at will.

IMO, there is little evidence to support this thinking. Over a six year period, he committed one likely two rapes in different towns and likely two acts of indecency. Of course he may have committed other crimes but this is conjecture at this stage.

 

[RichardKimble]

I think because they’re public & vocal, they become central figures (to some) & then somehow become a focal point & the face of the investigation. Seen it in many other cases, people get pulled in by the media storyline regarding people who go public.

Their testimonies have been corroborated with evidence. Their characters are open to scrutiny & therefore IMO some use their shady histories as a way to present a supposed weakness in the MM investigation, generally by wrongly placing them at the centre of it.

The evidence files passed to Fulscher regarding the 5 linked cases runs over 100 pages. IMO it would be irrational to assume 2 witnesses to be the deciding factor when the evidence file runs over 100 pages…….

There is something contained within those files or process that the defence have seen, that's brought justification from a court to halt proceedings.It may well be just the residency thing . Is there a precedent in the German judicial system for it?

 

[Mex]

Yet he left DNA evidence - IIRC, semen but I could be wrong.

The only source I have for EM having been checked out and eliminated by DNA when investigated by the PJ for the home invasions and sexual assaults is his wife.

Hardly authoritative.

Had there been any DNA evidence available to investigators to keep a suspect in the loop or eliminate him from the inquiry, I'm sure we would have known about it.

Bearing in mind that it is alleged EM died in a tractor accident in 2009 one wonders precisely when it was that he was interviewed regarding these random assaults. The PJ were seeking him out in 2013 and he hadn't been interviewed at the time regarding the MM disappearance.

All in all ~ quite mysterious.

Snip
He was reportedly identified as a suspect after phone records showed he had been near the holiday apartment at the time Madeleine went missing.

He had initially not been questioned because he was missing from a list of current and former Ocean Club employees that was given to police during the first investigation.

His widow L was questioned by officers and searches for MM's body were carried out based on the new evidence but nothing was ever found.

Mysterious Madeleine McCann abduction suspect who police never got to question

Euclides Monteiro had been fired from his job at the resort and it is claimed he may have kidnapped the girl as an act of revenge against his former employer

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[Mex]

If DNA ruled one out its obvious that with CBs DNA in the system its not him that committed the assaults in question .So not much bearing on the MM case which the thread is about.

EM was a major player in the reopening of the MM case in 2013 and he is a person familiar to us from police files having been named as a possible perpetrator and subsequently the tabloid press in 2013.

He was known from information passed to the PJ from British police. But no-one bothered to interview him for elimination purposes in 2007.

He is relevant to the MM case.
My opinion

 

[Mex]

There is a stronger legal team representing CB now it seems, maybe they'll argue that HeB is not that reliable especially now HeB has broken cover.

The character of informants is neither here nor there if the information imparted by them is proved reliable when checked out.

Initial information from informants in the DM rape case proved its worth when every single observation tallied with the existing evidence leading to conviction and the removal of a very sick and dangerous individual to where he could do no further harm to women and children for seven years.

 

[Mex]

I agree. I think the point raised was that these crimes were unsolved and therefore, the PJ were ineffective at this time, allowing CB the freedom commit sexual crimes at will.

IMO, there is little evidence to support this thinking. Over a six year period, he committed one likely two rapes in different towns and likely two acts of indecency. Of course he may have committed other crimes but this is conjecture at this stage.

Innocent till proven guilty.
Which his legal teams appear quite keen not to contest in court on his behalf. The evidence in five cases is up and ready to go and has been for some time.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

The only source I have for EM having been checked out and eliminated by DNA when investigated by the PJ for the home invasions and sexual assaults is his wife.

Hardly authoritative.

Had there been any DNA evidence available to investigators to keep a suspect in the loop or eliminate him from the inquiry, I'm sure we would have known about it.

Bearing in mind that it is alleged EM died in a tractor accident in 2009 one wonders precisely when it was that he was interviewed regarding these random assaults. The PJ were seeking him out in 2013 and he hadn't been interviewed at the time regarding the MM disappearance.

All in all ~ quite mysterious.

Snip
He was reportedly identified as a suspect after phone records showed he had been near the holiday apartment at the time Madeleine went missing.

He had initially not been questioned because he was missing from a list of current and former Ocean Club employees that was given to police during the first investigation.

His widow L was questioned by officers and searches for MM's body were carried out based on the new evidence but nothing was ever found.

Mysterious Madeleine McCann abduction suspect who police never got to question

Euclides Monteiro had been fired from his job at the resort and it is claimed he may have kidnapped the girl as an act of revenge against his former employer

www.mirror.co.uk

EM is/was no longer a suspect. He had no convictions for sexual crimes. It seems the only thread ever connecting him to MM is that he made a phone call 3 May, 2007. Based on this, it’s hardly convincing to rule him in, let alone rule him out.

 

[frank-cole]

Frank, I think you are taking a leap too far but please try to support the following:

1. Do you have a source where CT confirms CB was the person checking the gate?
2. There is no cell site triangulation, unless you can show otherwise, there is a phone number hitting a mast in PDL. This number may or may not have been used by CB.
3. We have been led to believe that CB confessed to HeB but it didn’t appear so in the Bild interview. Do you know the content of other confessions, or even if they occurred?
4. Do you have a source for the Van, presumably the VW, in the area in the days before?
5. Which one of the sitings in the days before the abduction is CB?

I think the way you present the information could be good circumstantial evidence but I think it’s more of a Clarence Mitchell version of the evidence than what has really been reported - that said, I’m happy to be proven wrong.

The offences occurred throughout the Algarve.
A similar MO was used. Was there forensic evidence left behind? According to the suspect's widow there must have been.
Snip
Former junkie and convicted burglar EM, who died in a tractor accident in 2008 at the age of 40, was questioned about a spate of sex attacks on female Brits at Algarve holiday villas from 2004 onwards.
But his widow LR claims Portuguese detectives ruled him out because his DNA did not match any from the crime scenes.

Prime suspect in Madeleine McCann abduction was quizzed about sex assaults now being linked to her disappearance

Euclides Monteiro, who died in 2008, was questioned about a spate of sex attacks on female Brits at Algarve holiday villas from 2004 onwards

www.mirror.co.uk

I too think there was only one offender who was too forensically savvy to leave any useable traces behind.

Completely agree, whoever was targeting properties in this way, was forensically savvy. In the Netflix series they had a quite unsettling re-enactment, the offender with a medical mask over his mouth getting into bed with a young girl. I think there’s a strong argument that CB could have been this lone male intruder. He was known to be forensically savvy, according to one of his old friends he had boasted about breaking into an apartment & performing a sex act naked in a room with young females. He also has a history of sexual assault & intrusions - he was active in the area at those times & as far as I can tell, these crimes stopped when he wasn’t in the Algarve. IMO I wouldn’t be surprised if the BKA have a hunch that CB was this offender, but there’s no concrete evidence to prove he was. IMO there’s a massive difference between thinking somebody is responsible for a crime & having the evidence to run a prosecution. Same applies to the €100000 theft, HCW thinks CB may have been involved but there’s no proof. That’s one of the reasons why I often wince & frown when it’s suggested that they don’t have evidence for the crimes they’re actually involved in.

 

[JB1510]

What was the sourcing for this can I ask?

I remember the discussions but I don’t recall where this info came from

I think it came from the Spiegel docs that came out in 2020 when CB work pal B gave an interview , he had a flat at the same complex as Momo .