Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #42

[C.greek]

We don’t need to worry about BARD standard. The prosecutors can’t get approval from a judge to charge. It nothing else this should prove that the evidence in the MM case is materially inferior to that in the rape trials.

Of course they wouldn't charge if they don't think their evidence will lead to his conviction. Therefore I think the BARD standard is what guides them. For us it would be nice to know what they have, but this is not their care!

The rape trials were a fiasco but this is for a different thread. (I personally believe they should have separated the cases, with HB being on her own, but I don't know how these work).

 

[frank-cole]

We don’t need to worry about BARD standard. The prosecutors can’t get approval from a judge to charge. It nothing else this should prove that the evidence in the MM case is materially inferior to that in the rape trials.

Do you agree that it’s possible they have absolutely clear evidence MM is dead?

The strength of the evidence may not be the issue. It may be the strength of the case linking CB to that evidence.

 

[RichardKimble]

Do you agree that it’s possible they have absolutely clear evidence MM is dead?

The strength of the evidence may not be the issue. It may be the strength of the case linking CB to that evidence.

Cranwell is very careful in his wording, no mention of a dead MM, why is it? IMO it does not exist.

Det Ch Insp Mark Cranwell said Brückner remains a suspect in the Met Police's own investigation into Madeleine's disappearance. He has been the prime suspect in the German and Portuguese investigations since 2020 and 2022, respectively.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Of course they wouldn't charge if they don't think their evidence will lead to his conviction. Therefore I think the BARD standard is what guides them. For us it would be nice to know what they have, but this is not their care!

The rape trials were a fiasco but this is for a different thread. (I personally believe they should have separated the cases, with HB being on her own, but I don't know how these work).

It’s not about what they think. To get approval to charge, the evidence must meet a standard. It’s a circumstantial case so they have to prove a chain of facts that connect together logically. Each of these facts must be proven beyond a reasonable doubt and there can be no contradictions - hence HCW’s comments about nothing ruling him out.

They cannot place him in PDL when MM disappeared so the chain of logic is broken and they cannot charge.

All this goes out of the window - excuse the pun - if they have direct evidence like a photo or an email detailing what happened to MM. this evidence, with the supporting circumstances would allow a charge.

We can deduce from what’s been said by HCW and the lack of progress that they have a working theory with gaps that are holding it back.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Do you agree that it’s possible they have absolutely clear evidence MM is dead?

The strength of the evidence may not be the issue. It may be the strength of the case linking CB to that evidence.

It’s not a great question because it’s ill defined.

I don’t think that they have clear evidence that couldn’t easily be refuted. They may have other people like HeB with statements say CB told them he knows MM is dead.

But they don’t have detailed documented information stating when and where she died. A photo of a deceased MM - no way Jose, simply not possible IMO.

 

[frank-cole]

It’s not a great question because it’s ill defined.

I don’t think that they have clear evidence that couldn’t easily be refuted. They may have other people like HeB with statements say CB told them he knows MM is dead.

But they don’t have detailed documented information stating when and where she died. A photo of a deceased MM - no way Jose, simply not possible IMO.

It could be that the evidence proving MM is dead & was murdered is absolutely clear.

Not having an airtight case against CB doesn’t mean that the evidence proving murder isn’t very strong.

Imo it’s important not conflate the 2.

 

[C.greek]

It’s not about what they think. To get approval to charge, the evidence must meet a standard. It’s a circumstantial case so they have to prove a chain of facts that connect together logically. Each of these facts must be proven beyond a reasonable doubt and there can be no contradictions - hence HCW’s comments about nothing ruling him out.

They cannot place him in PDL when MM disappeared so the chain of logic is broken and they cannot charge.

All this goes out of the window - excuse the pun - if they have direct evidence like a photo or an email detailing what happened to MM. this evidence, with the supporting circumstances would allow a charge.

We can deduce from what’s been said by HCW and the lack of progress that they have a working theory with gaps that are holding it back.

But all these are circumstantial evidence. HCW has said no pictures of CB AND MM together. If they are not together, how could they prove BARD CB was the perpetrator? The defence could also say the emails are just fantasies. If they cannot prove BARD CB was in PdL when MM disappeared, again it is circumstantial evidence what they have.

It is extremely difficult to build a case that would convict CB if all evidence is circumstantial and they cannot prove BARD that CB was in PdL, because all other evidence they have the defence could say that CB got the pictured from the dark Web, and/or what he wrote are his fantasies.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

It could be that the evidence proving MM is dead & was murdered is absolutely clear.

Not having an airtight case against CB doesn’t mean that the evidence proving murder isn’t very strong.

Imo it’s important not conflate the 2.

Sure, some dodgy ex-crime could be telling them CB said he killed her… didn’t the Romanian guy say as much. Clear but unreliable.

If you consider that strong that’s your opinion but it’s not definitive - it can’t get approval to charge.

Like I say, the public statements and no progress in five years tell the real story.

 

[C.greek]

Cranwell is very careful in his wording, no mention of a dead MM, why is it? IMO it does not exist.

Det Ch Insp Mark Cranwell said Brückner remains a suspect in the Met Police's own investigation into Madeleine's disappearance. He has been the prime suspect in the German and Portuguese investigations since 2020 and 2022, respectively.

I think you are over reading this. He remains a suspect is imo the most important part. Why mention dead MM when they have a suspect for her disappearance?

 

[RichardKimble]

I think you are over reading this. He remains a suspect is imo the most important part. Why mention dead MM when they have a suspect for her disappearance?

The Germans say murder, OG say disappearance, there's a disconnect not explained.

 

[frank-cole]

But all these are circumstantial evidence. HCW has said no pictures of CB AND MM together. If they are not together, how could they prove BARD CB was the perpetrator? The defence could also say the emails are just fantasies. If they cannot prove BARD CB was in PdL when MM disappeared, again it is circumstantial evidence what they have.

It is extremely difficult to build a case that would convict CB if all evidence is circumstantial and they cannot prove BARD that CB was in PdL, because all other evidence they have the defence could say that CB got the pictured from the dark Web, and/or what he wrote are his fantasies.

That’s the trouble I think. He had 20000+ images of cp. judging by CB’s words & the cell data it sounds like they may have his van & phone in PDL. But i don’t think they have enough to stop the counter argument of “he had 20000 cp images, he got that image the same as all the rest” (downloaded etc)

I don’t think their challenge is proving MM is dead & was murdered.

 

[frank-cole]

Sure, some dodgy ex-crime could be telling them CB said he killed her… didn’t the Romanian guy say as much. Clear but unreliable.

If you consider that strong that’s your opinion but it’s not definitive - it can’t get approval to charge.

Like I say, the public statements and no progress in five years tell the real story.

They say that when they saw the evidence it was “absolutely clear that it was a homicide”.

What people say about CB isn’t evidence of homicide. I doubt the German murder detectives would see it that way.

 

[frank-cole]

The Germans say murder, OG say disappearance, there's a disconnect not explained.

I don’t think it will be explained. The German’s say very clearly that they have evidence of murder. UK websites & how the Met classify this crime doesn’t change what the Germans are sure they have.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

But all these are circumstantial evidence. HCW has said no pictures of CB AND MM together. If they are not together, how could they prove BARD CB was the perpetrator? The defence could also say the emails are just fantasies. If they cannot prove BARD CB was in PdL when MM disappeared, again it is circumstantial evidence what they have.

It is extremely difficult to build a case that would convict CB if all evidence is circumstantial and they cannot prove BARD that CB was in PdL, because all other evidence they have the defence could say that CB got the pictured from the dark Web, and/or what he wrote are his fantasies.

A photo of MM found in CB’s possession or on his property is direct evidence, not circumstantial.

I am saying they are nowhere near BARD standard. They have no forensic evidence. HCW may consider the emails direct evidence but the don’t contain anything definitive. Like you say, it could be argued they are fantasies - this is logical because he has written fantasies.

Let’s consider the dark web picture. It would have to not include CB or have any definitive connection to him. This then would just be an image and not implicate CB.

It’s far more logical to see the case as circumstantial. A theory that suggests CB is responsible and this is supported by limited GPS data, weird fantasy emails at the time, witness statements and the other stuff we know about.

This all points to CB being responsible and nothing contradicts it but there is no hard direct evidence - this is incompatible with the lack of a charge.

 

[Lilly b]

Some people are obtuse and only do what they want to do. I suspect CB falls into this category.
He clearly has no liking for police authority and sees no reason why he should speak to them.
He can never put this behind him, partly because the media will continue to link him with MM

Your last sentence, re the media will continue to link him to mm, so if he would speak he could save himself from it all, but chooses not to
Which was my original point, if you have the opportunity to clear yourself, you would

 

[Denis R Tandib]

They say that when they saw the evidence it was “absolutely clear that it was a homicide”.

What people say about CB isn’t evidence of homicide. I doubt the German murder detectives would see it that way.

Did they say that? I don’t think so.

If they did, would a witness statement from a CB associate satisfy that comment.

 

[AuDHD]

Doubt there’s anything new in here but saw this on Reuters this morning:

UK police say 49-year-old German refused interview over Madeleine McCann disappearance

McCann went missing on May 3, 2007 while on holiday with her family in the Algarve town of Praia da Luz.

www.reuters.com

 

[RichardKimble]

They say that when they saw the evidence it was “absolutely clear that it was a homicide”.

What people say about CB isn’t evidence of homicide. I doubt the German murder detectives would see it that way.

Do you have a link to that, HCW said some time ago if you knew what we knew you would come to the same conclusion, this was Dec 2020, OH and charges may follow early next year, 2021.So even early on they never had enough to proceed to trial despite some confidence it seems.

Madeleine McCann: Public 'would reach same conclusion' on suspect

Prosecutor says if public "knew the evidence we had" they would think Madeleine McCann was killed.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Hexe]

He had 20000+ images of cp.

Why wasn't he convicted for that? It is illegal in Germany and a collection so huge would award him years in prison. Yet there is no evidence they even attempted to bring that to trial.

 

[RichardKimble]

That’s the trouble I think. He had 20000+ images of cp. judging by CB’s words & the cell data it sounds like they may have his van & phone in PDL. But i don’t think they have enough to stop the counter argument of “he had 20000 cp images, he got that image the same as all the rest” (downloaded etc)

I don’t think their challenge is proving MM is dead & was murdered.

Where did the figure of ,20,000 come from?

Madeleine McCann suspect Christian Brueckner's 'secret lair'

Police have allegedly discovered more than 8,000 images and videos on USB sticks and hard drives which were buried in a deserted factory belonging to Brueckner.

www.dailymail.co.uk