AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[LAhiker]

There's a simple answer to this no back pack question you can find on Cash Patel site.

Here is the link that @submarine7 appears to be referring to, without giving us that simple answer:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021285842044494279

In it, Patel says that the images came from NG's nest camera from the morning she disappeared. Assuming that that's correct, my thought that the "no backpack" photo could have been from January 11 is incorrect.

It still seems likely that this is a thumbnail from a slightly earlier time that night/morning, and that the lack of a shadow is from the moon being obscured by a cloud, from the moon being in a different position at that time, or from the poor resolution of the thumbnail.

(At the risk of a lighter note, we can rule out lantana man being a vampire because he casts a shadow later on.)

JMO

 

[Orion96007]

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

View attachment 646178

So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backpack man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

View attachment 646173

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)
View attachment 646175
For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.
With Thumbnails and Notification images, the metadata does not necessarily reflect the time that the original image was captured. So Google/FBI may not know what time/date the No-Backpack event actually happened.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

IMO, I am impressed with your attention to detail and observations. Thank you

 

[submarine7]

Okay, thank you. In your estimation, would the stem be able to push the security tab on the Nest? Personally, I would be surprised if it’s strong enough, but I’ve never seen one of these Nest doorbells in person.

If you went out of your way to grab a thicker piece it might, but he just pawed a clump so I don't think that's what he was after. Weird as it is, I believe he was trying to cover the camera with the plant.

 

[SlimPickens]

Or the FBI altered the image to showcase clothing etc

Maybe. I'd hope they would disclose that if they did, but I don't think they'd do that for a variety of reasons. Mostly because they are wanting the public's help in identification of the suspect, so any alterations would/could be counterproductive and viewed as suspect by the public. FBI and law enforcement are not the most trusted right now in terms of public opinion. I imagine they grabbed a video still, cropped it, and let it ride.

It could've unknowingly been converted to thumbnail size by Kash or some other person prior to posting. I've unknowingly reduced quality like that before. Doesn't look like the photo would provide much more detail to us even if it was hi-res, though I suppose blood on sidewalk or the plant condition might be scrutinized a bit more if it was.

If I had to wager one or the other, I'd bet no backpack was taken on 1/11 and they are hoping neighbor cameras can identify other shots of him or of his vehicle/movements.

JMO.

 

[Jade]

There's a simple answer to this no back pack question you can find on Cash Patel site.

Ok is it this? It won't allow me to embed the X maybe someone else can do that so everyone can see the post.

It has a picture of no back pack and back pack.

Additional recovered images from the same camera at Nancy Guthrie’s front door the morning of her disappearance, including two videos of the individual.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021285842044494279

imo

 

[slowpoke]

If you went out of your way to grab a thicker piece it might, but he just pawed a clump so I don't think that's what he was after. Weird as it is, I believe he was trying to cover the camera with the plant.

What I see is after he pulled some of the plant, he folded or balled it up. So, not looking like he was trying to use the specific part of the stems as a tool to pick at the tab of the doorbell cam.
jmo

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021285842044494279

 

[stmichael]

Additionally, if these are criminals the gun may have been around for years, bought in a different area at a long ago time and location. It's a worry.

Additionally, we have no idea it it's a real gun.

I've been using, collecting, working with, and shooting firearms for over 30 years and I can't tell from the dark, blurry footage what handle and profile that is (most assume small frame semi auto). Many gun guys speculating on gun forums, including professionals are also in disagreement.

Since there was no known discharge at the scene or even brandishing of the said gun on video footage it is just as possible that it is not a live firearm, that it is a replica or airsoft, etc.. This would jive with the masked man seemingly using it for intimidation and coercion with his front and center strange version of appendix carry as he approached the front door. It would also jive with the entire cheap get-up, where it seemed like he threw together what he could get easily.

It would also jive to me why he did not seem suited to actually use the firearm if he had to (defending homeowner, security guard that spotted him) based on it almost falling out of the mismatched holster, and the notion that he couldn't even draw effectively or put his finger in the trigger guard with his clumsy PPE gloves. And if he knew the target was an elderly lady living alone in a secluded neighborhood he would not be worried about resistance that would require the use of an actual firearm.

So many unknowns and assumptions still in this case.

 

[No it’s not]

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

View attachment 646178

So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backpack man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

View attachment 646173

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)
View attachment 646175
For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.
With Thumbnails and Notification images, the metadata does not necessarily reflect the time that the original image was captured. So Google/FBI may not know what time/date the No-Backpack event actually happened.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

Good work! No shadow with No-Backpack man..that’s why I thought it may be AI.

Cheers,
Nin

 

[SMK777]

If I had to wager one or the other, I'd bet no backpack was taken on 1/11 and they are hoping neighbor cameras can identify other shots of him or of his vehicle/movements.

It's odd that if he appears in Jan 11 surveillance footage, it makes him seem more like an habitual prowler/robber in the area than someone specifically targeting NG on February 1.

 

[warp3dwing]

If you went out of your way to grab a thicker piece it might, but he just pawed a clump so I don't think that's what he was after. Weird as it is, I believe he was trying to cover the camera with the plant.

I also think that’s what he was doing: trying to hang the clump from the top of the camera.

I just see a lot of posts about the suspect using the lantana to remove the Nest, and I’d love to substantiate or discount that idea if possible.

Someone out there must have lantana, a Nest doorbell, and some gloves for an experiment!

 

[SMK777]

Additionally, we have no idea it it's a real gun.

I've been using, collecting, working with, and shooting firearms for over 30 years and I can't tell from the dark, blurry footage what handle and profile that is (most assume small frame semi auto). Many gun guys speculating on gun forums, including professionals are also in disagreement.

Since there was no known discharge at the scene or even brandishing of the said gun on video footage it is just as possible that it is not a live firearm, that it is a replica or airsoft, etc.. This would jive with the masked man seemingly using it for intimidation and coercion with his front and center strange version of appendix carry as he approached the front door. It would also jive with the entire cheap get-up, where it seemed like he threw together what he could get easily.

It would also jive to me why he did not seem suited to actually use the firearm if he had to (defending homeowner, security guard that spotted him) based on it almost falling out of the mismatched holster, and the notion that he couldn't even draw effectively or put his finger in the trigger guard with his clumsy PPE gloves. And if he knew the target was an elderly lady living alone in a secluded neighborhood he would not be worried about resistance that would require the use of an actual firearm.

So many unknowns and assumptions still in this case.

Important observations, thanks .

 

[No it’s not]

Did you already discuss the book that SG released in feb24 where she talks about a kidnapping game her aunt used to play with her and her sister?

Thank you!! I was waiting to hear something like that!! Quoting my own post again:

‘After many hours of research of everything we know, of almost everything available open - source, I have a completely different thought of what the motive is in this case.

The discovery of the possible ring on the suspects right hand may be a dead giveaway. Someone will or has already recognized it IMO. For the subject to wear the ring during the crime, it must have significance to them. Why risk losing it? Or did he know he would not take his glove(s) off and therefore he would keep his precious ring on. He was not planning on going through drawers, trying to open a safe (if there was one) with his clumsy gloves.

No, not a burglary gone wrong, but taking or hurting a specific person with the intention to further hurt another family member - SG. ALL IMO- MOO etc.

The subject committed this crime to hurt SG. He wants SG to feel fear, despair and see her feel hopeless. The subject may have experienced loss in his own family - perhaps several losses- and something SG did, said or wrote may not have sit well with the subject. The subject has mental and or health issues IMO and has a deranged mind.

Tracing family lineage through DNA will solve this case hopefully soon. Whether we will know about Nancy Guthrie’s whereabouts ands state is another question. The hope dies last..’

Cheers,
Nin

 

[Spectrix]

I'm wondering -- could it be a thumbnail from a notification on January 11?? Could that be why they're looking for video from that night?


JMO

Yes, that is exactly what I was thinking!

 

[BellaToothless]

SG wanted her mother either deceased or alive.

When SG used the term celebrate her mom that was my impression as well.

 

[VicBlazey]

DBM

 

[Arkay]

In this case, there were FBI ( walking)searchers sent to look on ground, but from the video I saw, not super thorough ( no shade). They couldn't really get into some of the brush, a combo of sharp cacti, tumbleweed, vines, not easy to look under.

Good point. This also makes me wonder if the culprit(s) would have the same amount of trouble hiding her under all that?

Idk, I’m someone who really dislikes a desert environment, and am unfamiliar with how tough vs. easy it would be for someone accustomed to it. I guess they’d have tools, but so would LE, although they’d have to look everywhere while the criminals know where they placed Nancy (if that is the dreaded outcome).

JMO and ignorance about this.

 

[Friday Fan]

Some things that are noticeable about the face of the suspect from a video still image:
- The distance between the eyes (intercanthal distance - ICD) appears slightly wider than normal. This distance between the inner 'corners' of the eye in an adult is normally 28-35mm. If wider, its called telecanthus or hypertelorism depending on the etiology. A well known example of this is Jackie Kennedy who had hypertelorism (photo attached).
- Their eyebrows don't end where we would expect them to, which is normally in line with the inner corner of the eyes (unless the eyebrow extends across to the other side, i.e. a unibrow). So either they have a unibrow or they are wearing another mask or beanie/swimming cap/skull cap under the outer balacava (looks like this one maybe from walmart A knitted mask 3 Hole Ski Mask Winter Warmer Full Face Balaclava Outdoor Sports Thermal Cap for Men Women - Walmart.com).
- They appear to have what is called a positive canthal tilt meaning that the outer corner of the eye is angled upward relative to the inner corner of the eye (which is hard to see for sure), but definitely above the center of the pupil. Reference image below.
- Lastly, they do not appear to have excess upper eyelid skin as we would see with an individual in the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, etc. This is evident by the lighter appearing crease that is visible above the lash line on the right side of the image (left side of the person's face). This indicates that they are likely younger (20s, 30's, maybe 40's). Men generally start to exhibit extra upper eyelid skin in their 40's and 50's that gets worse with age and will obscure the lash line. But here we can see the entire lash line all the way across the eyelid and some eyelid skin above it.

View attachment 646130View attachment 646134View attachment 646127View attachment 646132

His face is so smooshed in by the mask, that he barely appears to have a nose!

 

[submarine7]

I'm leery of thinking that any data retrieved from Nancy's cameras display multiple dates and events considering she has no subscription. Anybody an expert?

 

[SMK777]

I also heard this. But he seems to run woth things too quickly, IMO. Just a while ago he heard there was FBI at the neighbors house and expressed it verbally on his live stream. He went down there to check it out right away and proved it was just plumbers. But he is definitely verbalizing a lot before finding out of its true.

Which is why he isn't a trusted source like Brian Entin is.

 

[BellaToothless]

Totally a possibility, but the intruder(s) spent a fair amount of forethought putting together an ensemble that was tucked in, potentially multi-layered, removed cameras, brought a full backpack containing something bulky/puffy (took up the entire space and probably and fairly lightweight because it seems to stay put as the perp bends over -- if it was heavy, I would expect it to fall to one side more). Gems are not that big unless they are geodes. The blood trail seems to end at the front walkway so that insinuates that a car or vehicle of some kind was possibly backed up to the walkway. Just seems odd that such a seemingly planned event would wind up being them breaking into the wrong house. Whoops, what a big faux pas that would be. And then happenstancing onto NG alone (a female, whereas the gem expert is male) in the middle of night and deciding to remove her from the home. Wouldn't the just bolt from the house and leave NG there in whatever state if they were like oh shoot, wrong house, no gems here!? I think early on it was mentioned nothing was stolen, besides NG. Plus, I can't imagine this gem expert has prize gems just sitting on the coffee table like a paper weight. They'd probably be in a safe if there at all. Just because one studies something, doesn't mean they keep that thing in their house either. Just seems less likely of a scenario to me. The lantana man does seem to amble around and improvise with yard vegetation, but that doesn't mean that the event was not carefully planned.

Excellent observation about the movement of the backpack (or lack of movement) IMO